grabowski
e12ad2ed7b
Decided by the user (October 2026): the whole plant runs ERPNext, and all tooling we develop has to interact with it. digital-factory.md: standing decision in the summary; decision 10 (ERPNext owns the business documents, the factory application owns the floor; ERPNext names are the shared keys); new section 'ERPNext: the plant's ERP' with the ownership table (customers, prices, sales orders, items and BOMs, work orders and job cards per station, batches and quality inspections per compound lot, serial numbers for metal parts, downtime entries, delivery notes, assets, accounting, payroll vs. cycles, per-record inspection, genealogy and the hash-chained log staying in the factory application), the integration rules (one typed Frappe REST client in cnx-factory, an integration user per tool, webhooks in, transactional outbox with idempotent postings so the floor never waits on the ERP, business-sized postings, customisation as a Frappe app in Gitea, nightly reconciliation, no public ERPNext endpoint, new tools use the same client), hosting on NixOS (no nixpkgs module, NixOS/nixpkgs #241921; Avunu frappe-nix as the start, frappe_docker as oci-containers fallback; MariaDB + Redis; vinyl-erp on site behind the gateway proxy; OIDC sign-on; upgrades on a restored copy), Thai localisation (Ecosoft erpnext_thailand: VAT, WHT, PND, billing notes; Ecosoft as partner to quote; payroll and BOI reporting to check), phasing (dev ERPNext now; accounting and assets from the first capex invoice; manufacturing at commissioning) and estimates. ERPNext added to the architecture diagram, services, machines (vinyl-erp), module list, backup, cost, build order and open decisions; the old 'ERP out of scope, decide after launch' line replaced. artist-platform.md: price list, customers, sales orders, campaign pledges as payment entries, through the plant's outbox. traceability.md: one ERP, one set of keys. README summary. total-investment.md added scope: ERPNext (to quote, not in the sum, no licence fee).
9.6 KiB
9.6 KiB
Total Investment: Rough Picture
Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.
Currency: USD and THB. FX at 5 August 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB. Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at 1 EUR = 1.155 USD and 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. Original figures compiled July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at ~38 is where it was when they were made.
Full vision, all blocks
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote. The fleet has since changed, see the added-scope table |
| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning. Replaced by the Newbilt Classic in the current fleet, see the added-scope table |
| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, galvanics and stamper prep) is unpriced too; OMS's reference prices (letter, 9 October 2026) put a complete 4-cell wet room at EUR 224k basic to 311k advanced (~USD 259k to 359k; ~270k to 371k with know-how transfer), installation and water treatment extra: at or below this block's low end, kept until quotes exist |
| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row |
| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate kept until the re-base; Sibert has since confirmed USD 250k for the three (its time, spares, shipping and travel extra), the difference is in the table below |
| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 290k – 580k | 9.6M – 19.1M | estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist |
| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.5M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable |
| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 730k – 1,270k | 24.0M – 41.6M | reviewed utilities CSV, THB-native; sized for one Duplex, the five-press re-size is in the table below |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.2M | estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
| Land 6–8 rai, if purchased | 360k – 970k | 12.0M – 32.0M | estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
| Traceability and factory software | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate |
| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Subtotal | ~4.1M – 7.7M | ~135M – 254M | |
| Contingency 15% | ~0.6M – 1.2M | ~20M – 38M | |
| Total, full vision | ~4.7M – 8.9M USD | ~155M – 294M THB |
Added scope, not yet in the roll-up
Decided, or re-priced by a vendor, after the roll-up above was compiled; carried here until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the building, software and stamper prep lines, and the contingency on top).
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, crane, workshop and tours |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
| Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments) | 40k – 90k | 1.3M – 3.0M | estimate, artist platform |
| PVC material lab, day-one tier (incl. plaque press and sample conditioning) | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, quality automation; not costed in the metrology block above. The mature tier (torque rheometer, DSC, FTIR, ~120k – 240k) is deferred, with partner labs in between |
| Stamper prep re-priced: USD 250k for VSP, VSF and VSC against the 60k – 170k block above | +190k (low case) / +80k (high case) | +6.3M / +2.6M | Sibert's budget confirmation, email of 5 October 2026 (galvanics and stamper prep); itemised quotation to follow. Its time, spare parts, shipping and travel are extra and fall into the freight/installation and spares blocks above |
| Press fleet changed (October 2026) to two Newbilt Duplex systems (two presses each, EX 50 main extruder and EX 35 colour extruder) plus one Newbilt Classic, replacing the two blocks above (930k – 1,290k): Duplex system 1 as the first block (350k – 370k; the quote's second-extruder option becomes the EX 35), system 2 ~230k – 300k (two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set as the yardstick, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35, estimate; no EX 35 price on file), the Classic ~290k – 460k (the AD12 band per press as a placeholder; no Newbilt price on file) | −60k (low case) / −160k (high case) | −2.0M / −5.3M | estimate, pressing line; the Newbilt re-quote replaces it. The utilities for five presses are re-sized in the row below |
| Utilities re-sized for the five-press fleet (October 2026): boiler bank 2 × 500 kg/h, chiller bank 3 × 250 kW with plate heat exchanger and tanks, larger softener and loop treatment (steam and cooling) | +185k (low case) / +294k (high case) | +6.1M / +9.7M | estimate, utilities CSV re-based from 24.0M – 41.6M to 30.1M – 51.3M THB |
| Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules (October 2026): yard ~379 m² against 178 m² (scale) | 73k – 122k | 2.4M – 4.0M | estimate: the building rate above on the ~200 m² the yard grows by; the open chiller compound costs less than a building, so this is the cautious end. The valved branches and feeders for the empty positions are not priced yet |
ERPNext for the whole plant (October 2026): configuration with Thai tax, integration with every tool, Nix packaging; vinyl-erp server |
to quote | to quote | not in the sum: 3 to 5.5 person-months in-house or a partner quote (Ecosoft), plus 2k to 4k USD hardware (digital factory); no licence fee |
| Archive mobile shelving for the father and mother archive (October 2026) | to quote | to quote | not in the sum: A-Z Solutions publishes no prices; quote it and a Thai supplier (facility security) |
| Added so far | ~678k – 1,027k | ~22.3M – 33.9M | about 13 to 17% on the full-vision subtotal |
Phased entry
A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly 1.7M to 2.9M USD (~57M to 95M THB):
- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full metrology deferred; the PVC lab's day-one tier is the added-scope row above
- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
- Galvanics, the second Duplex system and the Classic, full metrology, and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions
The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for exactly this reason.
What moves the number
- BOI: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see boi.md). The blocks are vendor prices without Thai duty or import VAT, so the headline assumes promotion: without it, ~0.14M USD of duty and ~0.2M USD of import VAT (reclaimable later) come on top at the start fleet (estimate)
- Buy vs lease on land and building swings roughly 1.0M to 2.1M USD (~34M to 69M THB) of upfront capital, and also moves the launch date by about three quarters — see project-timeline.md
- Biggest uncertainty bands: metrology (partly a choice of ambition), the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the Newbilt Classic (no price on file), and land
- Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here. Revenue is mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see project-timeline.md). A 10% move in EUR/THB between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in equipment-suppliers.md lists who to ask