cnx_vinyl/docs/finance/revenue-model.md

Revenue and Profit per Record: Rough Model

A first-pass economic model at mature capacity. Every number here is an estimate from industry pricing norms and this repo's own cost research; nothing is market-validated yet. The point is the shape of the economics and which levers matter, not precision. FX: ~38 THB/EUR. Compiled July 2026.

Pricing assumptions (what a pressing plant charges)

Typical Western pressing-service prices run roughly 2.50 to 5.00+ EUR per 12" record at volume for standard black, with premiums for color/splatter (+0.50 to 1.50), 180 g, and small runs; full-service with printed jacket lands around 4 to 8 EUR per unit. Per-title service fees come on top: mastering, lacquer cutting, stamper sets, test pressings, setup.

Working assumptions for CNX at mature volume, blended across run sizes and standard/color mix:

• Blended pressing price: ~3.0 to 4.0 EUR per record (pressing, labels, inner sleeve, assembly into customer-supplied or locally-made jacket; deluxe packaging passed through at cost plus margin)
• Per-title services: ~500 to 1,500 EUR per title (mastering, cutting, stampers, test pressings), at roughly 300 to 600 titles/yr at full capacity
• Dropshipping/fulfillment fees per parcel on top, not modeled here

Revenue at full capacity

Scenario	Records/yr	Pressing revenue	Title services	Total
Mature, low	1.0M	~3.0M EUR	~0.15M EUR	~3.2M EUR/yr
Mature, high	1.5M	~5.3M EUR	~0.6M EUR	~5.9M EUR/yr

(Low: 1.0M x 3.0 EUR + 300 titles x 500 EUR. High: 1.5M x 3.5 EUR + 600 titles x 1,000 EUR. A pure-volume plant runs at the low per-title end; a boutique-heavy mix pushes the title line up and the volume down.)

Direct cost per record (estimates)

Cost element	EUR/record	Basis
PVC compound	0.25 to 0.40	~150 to 160 g effective virgin per record at 1.5 to 2.5 EUR/kg record-grade; regrind loop covers scrap
Labels	0.03 to 0.08	printed pairs, volume
Inner sleeve	0.08 to 0.15	poly-lined
Jacket (standard)	0.35 to 0.80	local carton partners; pass-through-ish
Shrink wrap	0.02 to 0.03	film
Energy	0.10 to 0.20	~1.5 to 2 kWh blended per record at grid/solar mix
Production labor	0.20 to 0.35	15 to 25 staff across shifts at Thai wage levels over 1.0 to 1.5M records
Stamper amortization	0.03 to 0.06	in-house stamper over 1,000 to 2,000 pressings
Maintenance, spares, consumables	0.10 to 0.20	estimate
Reject allowance	0.10 to 0.15	5 to 10% reject rate carried by good units
Total direct cost	~1.3 to 2.4

Margin per record

• Blended price ~3.0 to 4.0 EUR minus direct cost ~1.3 to 2.4 EUR gives a gross margin of roughly 1.2 to 1.8 EUR per record (~40 to 55%)
• Overheads on top: admin/sales, insurance, facility running costs, and depreciation (~300k to 600k EUR/yr on the 4M to 7.7M full-vision capex over 10 to 15 years), together roughly 0.4 to 0.7 EUR per record at full volume

Rough operating picture at full capacity: EBITDA ~0.8 to 1.5M EUR/yr; operating profit after depreciation ~0.5 to 1.0M EUR/yr, before tax. The BOI CIT exemptions (solar, automation, and any merit measures) shield a meaningful part of early-year profits; see boi.md.

Payback on the full-vision capex at these margins: roughly 5 to 8 years at mid assumptions (the adverse corner, high capex meeting low profit, stretches past 15 years), materially better if the phased entry proves the market before the big blocks are bought.

What moves the model

• Utilization is everything: the cost structure is mostly fixed, so profit swings almost linearly with volume sold; 60% utilization at mature fleet size roughly halves operating profit
• Mix: color/splatter and boutique runs carry 20 to 50% price premiums and suit the semi-automatic line; the title-services line (mastering, cutting, stampers) has software-like margins once the rooms exist
• Regional position: an Asia-Pacific full-service plant competes on turnaround and freight against EU/US plants for regional labels; pricing power there is unproven and is the single biggest assumption in this model
• In-house galvanics removes 150 to 400 EUR per title of external stamper cost and days of turnaround, feeding both margin and the sales story
• Energy: solar plus heat recovery pushes the energy line toward the low end and hedges Thai tariff rises

Honest caveats

• No market validation yet: no signed customers, no confirmed regional price points; the Making Vinyl trip and early conversations should test the 3.0 to 4.0 EUR blended assumption before it anchors any financing case
• Demand risk is real: vinyl demand is cyclical and capacity has been added globally; the model assumes the plant can sell what it presses
• The reject allowance assumes the QC investment holds rejects at or below industry norms; early production will run worse before it runs better