cnx_vinyl/docs/finance/total-investment.md

Total Investment: Rough Picture

Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.

Currency: USD and THB. FX at 5 August 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB. Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at 1 EUR = 1.155 USD and 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. Original figures compiled July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at ~38 is where it was when they were made.

Full vision, all blocks

Block	USD	THB	Basis
Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex	350k – 370k	11.5M – 12.2M	2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote
2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12)	580k – 920k	19.1M – 30.5M	unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning
Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha)	320k – 650k	10.7M – 21.4M	six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, galvanics and stamper prep) is unpriced too
Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD)	90k – 240k	3.0M – 8.0M	utilities CSV option row
Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC)	60k – 170k	1.9M – 5.7M	estimate kept until the re-base; Sibert has since confirmed USD 250k for the three (its time, spares, shipping and travel extra), the difference is in the table below
Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment)	290k – 580k	9.6M – 19.1M	estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist
Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station)	350k – 810k	11.5M – 26.7M	estimate, phaseable
Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline	730k – 1,270k	24.0M – 41.6M	reviewed utilities CSV, THB-native
Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works	650k – 1,100k	21.4M – 36.2M	estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works
Land 6–8 rai, if purchased	360k – 970k	12.0M – 32.0M	estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront
Traceability and factory software	60k – 170k	1.9M – 5.7M	estimate
Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment)	120k – 230k	3.8M – 7.6M	estimate
Working capital, PVC stock, spares	120k – 230k	3.8M – 7.6M	estimate
Subtotal	~4.1M – 7.7M	~135M – 254M
Contingency 15%	~0.6M – 1.2M	~20M – 38M
Total, full vision	~4.7M – 8.9M USD	~155M – 294M THB

Added scope, not yet in the roll-up

Decided, or re-priced by a vendor, after the roll-up above was compiled; carried here until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the building, software and stamper prep lines, and the contingency on top).

Block	USD	THB	Basis
Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door	97k – 227k	3.2M – 7.5M	estimate, crane, workshop and tours
Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out	30k – 76k	1.0M – 2.5M	estimate, same
Visitor corridor and accessible entrance	67k – 148k	2.2M – 4.9M	estimate, same
Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments)	40k – 90k	1.3M – 3.0M	estimate, artist platform
PVC material lab, day-one tier (incl. plaque press and sample conditioning)	55k – 150k	1.8M – 5.0M	estimate, quality automation; not costed in the metrology block above. The mature tier (torque rheometer, DSC, FTIR, ~120k – 240k) is deferred, with partner labs in between
Stamper prep re-priced: USD 250k for VSP, VSF and VSC against the 60k – 170k block above	+190k (low case) / +80k (high case)	+6.3M / +2.6M	Sibert's budget confirmation, email of 5 October 2026 (galvanics and stamper prep); itemised quotation to follow. Its time, spare parts, shipping and travel are extra and fall into the freight/installation and spares blocks above
Added so far	~480k – 770k	~15.8M – 25.5M	about 10 to 12% on the full-vision subtotal

Phased entry

A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly 1.7M to 2.9M USD (~57M to 95M THB):

• Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
• Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
• Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full metrology deferred; the PVC lab's day-one tier is the added-scope row above
• Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
• Galvanics, automated presses, full metrology, and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions

The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for exactly this reason.

What moves the number

• BOI: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see boi.md)
• Buy vs lease on land and building swings roughly 1.0M to 2.1M USD (~34M to 69M THB) of upfront capital, and also moves the launch date by about three quarters — see project-timeline.md
• Biggest uncertainty bands: metrology (partly a choice of ambition), the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the automated presses (single unverified price point), and land
• Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here. Revenue is mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see project-timeline.md). A 10% move in EUR/THB between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
• Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in equipment-suppliers.md lists who to ask