grabowski
b3e8e4272b
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 52s
User (October 2026): "lets say 60+% special prints" (the plant focuses on special prints, not mono colours). - Specials (splatter, marble, colour effects) run only on the Duplex systems, so at 60 % the Duplex sets the launch plant's output: ~0.58 / 0.74 / 0.90M records a year (was 0.71 / 0.84 / 0.97 at ~20 %), the Classic at about two thirds load. Full 60/40 hall: ~2.3 to 3.6M (Duplex -limited, Classics about half loaded); five-press fleet unchanged. A hall balanced by output at 60 % would give Duplex ~70 to 75 % of the floor (estimate; noted, not applied). - Blended price 3.76 / 4.49 / 5.27 USD (standard 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25 plus the 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 specials premium on 60 %). Launch operating picture: revenue 2.28 / 3.65 / 5.41M USD, EBITDA 0.23 / 1.73 / 3.79M, operating profit -0.66 / 1.21 / 3.46M, payback ~3.8 yr central, break-even ~0.25M records; adverse needs ~1.1M records to cover depreciation. Specials' extra direct cost (coloured compound, purge, trim only into black) is not in the cost table yet: flagged as an upper bound until compound quotes. - Calculator default specials share 20 -> 60 % (planning rates keep the launch plant balanced at 850k: revenue 4.14M, EBITDA 2.07M, payback 3.3 yr, cash payback year ~4.8, IRR ~18 %). - revenue-model.md, scale.md, pressing-line.md, README; business plan draft 0.2 rebuilt (sections 1, 4, 9, risks). Checks: calculator regression 0 fails, no page errors, node --check on all scripts; PDF 47 pages, table of contents filled; no em dashes added.
806 lines
71 KiB
Python
806 lines
71 KiB
Python
"""Part C: investment, revenue and operating model, timeline, phasing, team and ownership, risks, next steps.
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Draft 0.2, October 2026: re-based on the launch plant (everything in one capital round,
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commissioned in sequence), docs/finance/total-investment.md "Launch plant (October 2026)".
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"""
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from plan_lib import H1, H2, H3, P, B, N, T, KV, IMG, CALL, PB
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def blocks():
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return [
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# ------------------------------------------------- 8 investment
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H1("8. Investment"),
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P("Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view of the launch plant decided in October "
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"2026: one capital round for the whole chain, from the cutting room to the shrink wrapper, "
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"commissioned in sequence. Blocks marked 'estimate' have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to "
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"quotes, published prices or researched ranges. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide margin "
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"(plus or minus 30 to 50 % on the estimates) until requests for quotation replace them. Exchange "
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"rates: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD."),
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P("The September 2026 draft of this plan priced a phased entry (one press, bridge stampers, outsourced "
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"cutting) and a five-press full vision. Both are superseded by the launch plant below and are not "
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"repeated here; the planning repository keeps them for the record."),
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H2("8.1 The launch plant, all blocks"),
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T(["Block", "USD", "THB", "Basis"], [
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["Phase 0: BOI consultant, legal and lease work, soil test, re-quotes", "40k to 80k",
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"1.3M to 2.6M", "Estimate"],
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["Newbilt Duplex system (two HRP 12 presses, EX 50 main and EX 35 colour extruder, trimmer, label "
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"oven, shrink wrapper, grinder, label punch)", "350k to 370k", "11.6M to 12.2M",
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"Quoted: 2024 offer EUR 200,500 for the Single 2.1 plus the quoted second press and extruder "
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"~USD 115k; expired, re-quote"],
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["Newbilt Classic, fully automatic press", "290k to 460k", "9.6M to 15.2M", "Placeholder (the old "
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"automatic-press band per press); **no Newbilt price on file**"],
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["Pheenix galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, one PDPU, PMPB)", "320k to 650k", "10.6M to 21.4M",
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"Estimate; **no Pheenix price on file**; OMS's reference prices for a 4-cell wet room (EUR 224k "
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"to 311k, ~USD 259k to 359k) sit at the low end"],
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["Galvanics water: zero-discharge (ZLD) evaporator and DI water", "97k to 258k", "3.2M to 8.5M",
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"Researched: utilities rows, now launch scope"],
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["Water-treatment building next to galvanics (~12 × 10 m, proposed)", "52k to 87k", "1.7M to 2.9M",
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"Estimate at the building rate below"],
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["Sibert stamper prep: VSF back-finisher, VSP punch, VSC coiner", "250k", "8.3M", "Sibert's budget "
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"confirmation, 5 October 2026; its time, spares, shipping and travel sit in the freight and "
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"working-capital lines"],
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["Cutting room: Sillitoe SDMS lathe, spare cutterhead and support, mastering console and chain, "
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"monitoring, room build-out", "200k to 350k", "6.6M to 11.6M", "SDMS list price USD 125k (ex tax "
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"and shipping); the rest estimate"],
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["Metrology and QC stack (XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler, inline vision on three presses, "
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"audio station)", "350k to 810k", "11.6M to 26.7M", "Estimate, phaseable"],
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["PVC lab, day-one tier", "55k to 150k", "1.8M to 5.0M", "Estimate"],
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["Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking", "863k to 1,477k", "28.5M to 48.7M",
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"Researched: Thai supplier ranges, re-sized for three presses (two chiller modules instead of "
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"three)"],
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["Building ~1,500 m² plus civil and site works", "650k to 1,100k", "21.4M to 36.3M", "Estimate at "
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"12,000 to 20,000 THB/m² plus ~20 % site works; soil is the main variable"],
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["Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door", "97k to 227k", "3.2M to 7.5M", "Estimate"],
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["Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out", "30k to 76k", "1.0M to 2.5M", "Estimate"],
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["Visitor corridor and accessible entrance", "67k to 148k", "2.2M to 4.9M", "Estimate"],
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["Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules", "73k to 122k", "2.4M to 4.0M",
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"Estimate"],
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["Factory software, ERPNext, artist platform public side", "115k to 310k", "3.8M to 10.2M",
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"Estimate: factory software 60k to 170k, ERPNext implementation 15k to 50k, artist platform "
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"40k to 90k"],
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["Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication", "55k to 190k", "1.8M to 6.3M", "Estimate, sections "
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"4.8 and 4.9"],
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["Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its "
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"quoted 5 days)", "150k to 300k", "5.0M to 9.9M", "Estimate"],
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["Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent", "135k to 290k",
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"4.5M to 9.6M", "Estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase"],
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["Subtotal", "~4.24M to 7.71M", "~140M to 254M", ""],
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["Contingency 15 %", "~0.64M to 1.16M", "~21M to 38M", ""],
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["**Total, launch plant**", "**~4.9M to 8.9M**", "**~161M to 292M**", "**Midpoint ~6.9M USD, "
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"~227M THB**"],
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], widths_mm=[52, 30, 30, 58], font_pt=8.5,
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caption="Source: docs/finance/total-investment.md, 'Launch plant (October 2026)'. The second Duplex "
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"system and further Classics are growth options with room reserved (hall floor, utility "
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"module positions, ring-main tees), not part of this total."),
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P("**Not in the total:** a reserve for the ramp-up (staff hired before first revenue, overheads until "
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"volume covers them), ~10M to 20M THB, estimate; CD replication (section 4.9); financing costs; "
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"currency moves; the mobile shelving for the father and mother archive (to quote); and the central "
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"hydraulic plant around the Newbilt aggregates (standby pump set, accumulator station, ring main), "
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"not costed yet, for a Thai hydraulic power unit builder to quote. The blocks are vendor prices "
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"without Thai duty or import VAT, so they assume BOI promotion: without it, ~5 % duty on ~2.3M USD "
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"of imported machinery (~0.11M USD) comes on top, plus ~0.17M USD of import VAT paid at the border "
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"and reclaimed later (estimates)."),
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H2("8.2 The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more"),
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P("The lead investor asked in October 2026 whether the plant can be built for **180M THB (~5.45M USD), "
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"possibly up to 20 % more (216M THB, ~6.55M USD)**. Against the launch-plant total:"),
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T(["Case", "Launch plant", "Against 180M", "Against 216M"], [
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["Low end of every block", "~161M THB", "Fits, ~19M to spare", "Fits"],
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["Midpoint", "~227M THB", "~47M over", "~11M over"],
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["High end of every block", "~292M THB", "~112M over", "~76M over"],
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], widths_mm=[50, 40, 40, 40]),
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P("At the midpoint, four levers bring the plant inside 216M without dropping any of the machines "
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"decided above (midpoint values with their share of the contingency, estimates):"),
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T(["Lever", "Saves", "Launch plant after it"], [
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["Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the "
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"plant buys the power) instead of buying them", "~12.3M THB", "~214M THB"],
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["Metrology launch tier (XRF, inline vision, audio station); the laser confocal and the wide-area "
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"profiler bought from revenue", "~10.1M THB", "~204M THB"],
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["Pheenix galvanics priced near OMS's reference for a 4-cell wet room (EUR 224k to 311k)",
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"~6.7M THB", "~198M THB"],
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["Visitor corridor built later; the plant runs without public tours at first", "~4.1M THB",
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"~193M THB"],
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], widths_mm=[110, 26, 34]),
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CALL("Reading this honestly", [
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"**216M THB is a realistic target for the full equipment list; 180M THB holds only if the open "
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"quotes land low.** With the four levers and the ramp-up reserve of ~10M to 20M THB on top, the "
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"midpoint comes to ~203M to 213M THB, inside 216M.",
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"**180M is a low-quote outcome, not a plan.** Reaching it at the midpoint needs scope cuts on top "
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"of the levers: cassette and CD-R later (~4.6M THB) and a rented crane for the installations while "
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"the frame stays crane-ready (~3.7M THB) give ~185M before the reserve, still above 180M.",
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"**Chinese suppliers do not change the answer.** Boilers, compressed air and hydraulics were "
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"checked in October 2026: about 2M THB at the midpoint (~2.5M with contingency), ~1 % of the "
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"target. Worth taking for the two boiler modules (ASME-stamped 1.25 MPa design; an imported "
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"boiler must be verified by a certification body registered with the Thai Department of "
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"Industrial Works) and for the compressor (Kaishan and Denair have Thai offices). The Newbilt "
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"hydraulic aggregates stay Newbilt's. Chinese chillers and HVAC, larger blocks, are not checked "
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"yet.",
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]),
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P("**What decides it.** The Classic and the Pheenix galvanics line have no price on file, and the "
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"building depends on the soil. Four requests settle most of the band: the Newbilt re-quote for the "
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"Duplex and the Classic, a Pheenix quote for the galvanics line, the building request for quotation "
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"with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology stack. Until they are in, the plan "
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"quotes **~216M THB as the target** with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case."),
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H2("8.3 Tranches"),
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P("The launch plant is one capital round, but it is not one payment. Capital is released against "
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"milestones, so each tranche is spent only once the previous gate has cleared. Because cutting and "
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"galvanics are commissioned first and have their own build times, their orders sit in the first "
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"long-lead tranche next to the presses. The shares below are estimates for planning the calls on "
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"capital, not a payment schedule agreed with any vendor."),
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T(["Tranche", "Trigger", "Covers", "Approx. share"], [
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["0", "Now", "Phase 0 work (section 14.1)", "1 to 2 %"],
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["1", "BOI certificate issued; lease signed; zoning and soil confirmed; pricing validated",
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"Deposits on every long-lead order: Pheenix galvanics line, Sillitoe lathe, Sibert line, Newbilt "
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"Duplex and Classic; building design and permit; first boiler and chiller modules", "20 to 30 %"],
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["2", "Building permit; vendor build dates confirmed in writing", "Construction, water-treatment "
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"building, utility yard, utilities, balance payments as machines are built", "35 to 45 %"],
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["3", "Building watertight; first machinery shipped", "Fit-out, HVAC and clean zones, ZLD and DI "
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"water, crane, metrology, factory software and ERPNext, cassette and CD-R lines, the launch team",
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"15 to 20 %"],
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["4", "Cutting room and galvanics commissioned; first stampers made", "Working capital, PVC stock, "
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"spares, first-year rent; the ramp-up reserve (outside the total) is drawn from here on",
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"8 to 12 %"],
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], widths_mm=[16, 54, 74, 26]),
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H2("8.4 What moves the number"),
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B([
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"**BOI promotion.** The machinery duty and import VAT exemption applies across most of the "
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"equipment blocks (~0.11M USD of duty and ~0.17M USD of import VAT cash flow, estimates), and the "
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"automation and solar spend converts into corporate income tax exemption headroom. The application "
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"precedes every purchase order. One interaction to check with the BOI consultant: the solar measure "
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"is based on the plant's own solar investment, so the solar PPA lever would likely give that "
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"headroom up (our reading).",
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"**The ground.** Soft paddy soil under the building, paving and fill platform is the single largest "
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"cost variable in the building package, and the cheapest to resolve: a soil boring test costs "
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"THB 30k to 50k.",
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"**The two missing machine prices.** The Classic and the Pheenix line carry two of the widest "
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"machine bands in the table and have no vendor price at all. The Classic band is a placeholder "
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"borrowed from another vendor's automatic press.",
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"**Chinese suppliers: ~1 %.** Checked for boilers, compressed air and hydraulics, worth about 2M "
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"THB (section 8.2). Chillers and HVAC are the larger blocks and have not been checked yet; that is "
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"the next Chinese lever to test.",
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"**Solar PPA.** The largest single lever (~12.3M THB at the midpoint) moves the array off the "
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"capital budget and adds a power price to the energy line instead.",
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"**Every band narrows only with quotes.** The supplier map in the planning repository lists who to "
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"ask, and the re-quotes are phase 0 work (section 14).",
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]),
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H2("8.5 Currency exposure"),
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P("Revenue will be mostly USD and EUR from export customers; the cost base is mostly THB; the equipment "
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"is priced in several currencies. Newbilt quotes in EUR, and the Pheenix line is expected in EUR "
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"(European vendor, no quote yet; the currency is a stated field in the request). Sibert's budget and "
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"Sillitoe's list price are in USD (Sibert is a UK company, Sillitoe Australian). None of it is "
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"hedged, and the orders will not be placed for roughly a year. In the September draft a 10 % move "
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"in EUR/THB was worth USD 25k to 35k on the Duplex line alone; with the Classic and the galvanics "
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"line also in EUR, the three EUR lines come to ~0.96M to 1.48M USD, so the same move is worth "
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"roughly USD 0.1M to 0.15M (estimate)."),
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P("Operationally, roughly two-thirds of direct cost (labour, energy, local cartons, maintenance) is "
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"THB, so a 10 % baht appreciation takes **0.09 to 0.17 USD off the gross margin per record** without "
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"any operational change, enough to push the adverse case further under water. Three mitigations "
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"are planned: every re-quote states its currency and validity period; decide early whether to "
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"quote regional customers in THB; and decide, once the BOI timeline is known, whether to hedge the "
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"EUR orders. The hedging decision belongs to the investor."),
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# ------------------------------------- 9 revenue and operating model
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H1("9. Revenue and operating model"),
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P("A first-pass economic model of the launch plant in a mature year. Most numbers are estimates from "
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"industry pricing norms and the project's own cost research; the point is the shape of the economics "
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"and which levers matter, not precision. The price assumption is deliberately held at the "
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"conservative Western export level even though the one set of Thai market data (section 3.3) says "
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"domestic prices are several times higher: re-basing the whole model on one supplier's price list "
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"in a market with one supplier would be worse than leaving it low."),
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H2("9.1 Pricing assumptions"),
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B([
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"**Blended pressing price: USD 3.76 to 5.27 per record** (THB 124 to 174) at the planned **60 % "
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"specials** (splatter, marble and colour effects; the plant focuses on special prints, not mono "
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"colours): standard USD 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25 plus a specials premium of 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 on 60 % "
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"of the records, covering pressing, labels, inner sleeve and assembly into the jacket; deluxe "
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"packaging passed through at cost plus margin. At ~20 % specials the same prices blend to 3.50 to "
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"4.60. Western plants charge roughly USD 2.90 to 5.80 for standard black at volume, with premiums "
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"of 0.60 to 1.70 for colour and splatter, 180 g and small runs. What specials cost extra "
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"(coloured compound, colour-change purge, trim that only goes back into black) is not yet in the "
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"direct cost, so the specials gain is an upper bound until the compound quotes arrive.",
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"**Western benchmark, October 2026.** Record Industry (Haarlem) publishes its prices online: 300 "
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"copies of a black 140 g LP with stampers, test pressings, printed labels, a paper inner sleeve, a "
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"printed jacket and shrink wrap come to **1,721 EUR all-in (~219 THB a copy)**, ex VAT and freight. "
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"Its per-title items (set-up, small-run charge, cutting, stampers, test pressings) total about 580 "
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"to 600 EUR, the low end of this plan's title assumption; black pressing with printed labels and a "
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"paper inner sleeve comes to about 2.43 USD a copy at 300, below the 2.90 to 5.80 range.",
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"**Thai market.** The ResurRec invoices of August 2026 come to **650 to 950 THB a copy all-in at "
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"300**, about 3 to 4.3 times Record Industry's ex-works price. The artist ordering demo's price "
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"list comes to **~343 THB a copy at 300** with vinyl mastering: above the European ex-works price, "
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"well below the Thai market. Both price levels stay open until market validation (roadmap item 1).",
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"**Per-title services: USD 580 to 1,730 per title** (THB 19k to 57k) for mastering, cutting, "
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"stampers and test pressings. The middle of the range is the **artist-demo per-title fee of 37,836 "
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"THB**: mastering 10,000, lacquer 5,336, cutting 4,000, plating 14,000, press set-up 3,000 and "
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"tests 1,500. The launch plant models 200 to 400 titles a year; mastering is labour-bound, and the "
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"plan staffs one to two engineers, which caps this line.",
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"**Cassettes and CD-Rs** are add-on lines, not in the operating picture. The September draft "
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"illustrated them at 20k to 60k cassettes a year at USD 2.50 to 4.00 and 10k to 40k CD-Rs at USD "
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"1.50 to 3.00; estimates with no market data behind them yet.",
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"**Dropshipping fees** per parcel and **stamper supply to other plants** are on top and not "
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"modelled.",
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]),
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H2("9.2 Capacity and revenue of the launch plant"),
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P("Three presses make **~0.58 to 0.90 million records a year on two shifts at 60 % specials** "
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"(estimate). Specials run only on the Duplex system (the Classic has one built-in extruder), so its "
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"two semi-automatic presses at 60 to 80 records an hour each set the pace, and the Classic (~128 an "
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"hour, 28 s cycle, vendor flyer) presses the standard 40 % at about two thirds load; at 60 to 70 % "
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"effectiveness, 16 hours a day and 300 days a year. At ~20 % specials the same presses made 0.71 to "
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"0.97 million. The press fleet calculator, at the team's planning rates (3 records a minute per "
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"Duplex system, 2 per Classic, 65 % effectiveness), stays balanced at ~0.94 million. The central "
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"case takes the middle, 0.74 million."),
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T(["USD per year", "Adverse", "Central", "Favourable"], [
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["Records", "0.58M", "0.74M", "0.90M"],
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["Blended price, 60 % specials", "3.76", "4.49", "5.27"],
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["Pressing revenue", "~2.17M", "~3.31M", "~4.72M"],
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["Titles × per-title fee", "200 × 580", "300 × 1,155", "400 × 1,730"],
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["Title-services revenue", "~0.12M", "~0.35M", "~0.69M"],
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["**Revenue**", "**2.28M (~75M THB)**", "**3.65M (~120M THB)**", "**5.41M (~179M THB)**"],
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], widths_mm=[50, 40, 40, 40],
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caption="Estimate. Pressing and title revenue are records × price and titles × fee; the totals are "
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"those of docs/finance/revenue-model.md. A pure-volume plant runs at the low per-title "
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"end; a boutique-heavy mix pushes titles up and volume down."),
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H2("9.3 Direct cost per record"),
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T(["Cost element", "USD/record", "THB/record", "Basis"], [
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["PVC compound", "0.29 to 0.46", "9.6 to 15.2", "~150 to 160 g effective virgin at 1.75 to 2.90 "
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"USD/kg; regrind loop covers scrap"],
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["Labels", "0.03 to 0.09", "1.1 to 3.0", "Printed pairs, volume"],
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["Inner sleeve", "0.09 to 0.17", "3.0 to 5.7", "Poly-lined"],
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["Jacket (standard)", "0.40 to 0.92", "13.3 to 30.4", "Ploy Printing and local carton partners; "
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"largely pass-through"],
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["Shrink wrap", "0.02 to 0.03", "0.8 to 1.1", "Film"],
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["Energy", "0.12 to 0.23", "3.8 to 7.6", "~1.5 to 2 kWh blended per record at grid/solar mix"],
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["Production labour, launch plant", "**0.13 to 0.28**", "4.2 to 9.3", "13 to 19 direct staff, "
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"3.7M to 5.4M THB a year, over 0.58 to 0.90M records (0.08 to 0.16 on the five-press fleet)"],
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["Stamper amortisation", "0.03 to 0.12", "1.0 to 4.0", "In-house three-generation set at ~USD 60 "
|
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"to 150 marginal over 1,000 to 2,000 "
|
||
"pressings"],
|
||
["Maintenance, spares, consumables", "0.12 to 0.23", "3.8 to 7.6", "Estimate"],
|
||
["Reject allowance", "0.12 to 0.17", "3.8 to 5.7", "5 to 10 % reject rate carried by good units"],
|
||
["**Total direct cost, launch plant**", "**~1.35 to 2.70**", "**~45 to 89**", "Central 2.00; no "
|
||
"extra cost for specials yet"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[42, 26, 26, 76], font_pt=8.5,
|
||
caption="Estimates, docs/finance/revenue-model.md. THB at 33 per USD."),
|
||
P("**Why labour per record is higher than in the September draft.** Two shifts need the full press, "
|
||
"finishing, galvanics, QC and maintenance crews whether the hall holds three presses or five, so "
|
||
"the direct payroll stays at 3.7M to 5.4M THB a year (113k to 163k USD) while the volume falls from "
|
||
"1.0 to 1.5 million records to 0.58 to 0.90 million. Labour per record rises to **0.13 / 0.19 / "
|
||
"0.28 USD** (favourable / central / adverse), and the direct cost to 1.35 / 2.00 / 2.70 USD. The "
|
||
"build-up, at northern Thai rates loaded ×1.3 for social security, overtime, bonus and PPE:"),
|
||
T(["Role", "Heads", "THB/month each, loaded"], [
|
||
["Press and finishing operators", "8 to 12", "~19,500"],
|
||
["Galvanics", "2 to 3", "~32,500"],
|
||
["QC", "1 to 2", "~26,000"],
|
||
["Maintenance", "2", "~32,500"],
|
||
["**Direct production payroll**", "**13 to 19**", "**~312,000 to 449,000 a month**"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[80, 30, 60]),
|
||
P("Mastering and cutting engineers are title-services labour, not per-record (a cutting engineer earns "
|
||
"about 50,000 THB a month base, team figure); admin, sales and logistics sit in overheads. Group "
|
||
"health insurance with a yearly check-up (~0.35M THB a year for ~20 staff) and unified workwear "
|
||
"(~0.3M THB a year) come on top of the ×1.3 and are not yet in the per-record figure."),
|
||
|
||
H2("9.4 Operating picture of the launch plant"),
|
||
P("Built from the components above. Three scenarios, each internally consistent: adverse pairs low "
|
||
"volume with the low price, the high cost, the high capital and the high overheads; favourable does "
|
||
"the opposite; central takes midpoints. Cash overheads (admin, sales, insurance, facility running, "
|
||
"IT, professional fees, marketing, the land lease) are estimated at USD 0.20M to 0.45M a year and "
|
||
"paired high-to-adverse. Depreciation is 8.9M USD over 10 years (adverse), the 216M THB target "
|
||
"(~6.55M USD) over 12.5 years (central), and 4.9M USD over 15 years (favourable)."),
|
||
T(["USD per year, mature", "Adverse", "Central", "Favourable"], [
|
||
["Records", "0.58M", "0.74M", "0.90M"],
|
||
["Blended price, 60 % specials", "3.76", "4.49", "5.27"],
|
||
["Direct cost", "2.70", "2.00", "1.35"],
|
||
["Contribution per record", "1.06", "2.49", "3.92"],
|
||
["Pressing contribution", "0.61M", "1.83M", "3.51M"],
|
||
["Title-services contribution", "0.07M", "0.23M", "0.48M"],
|
||
["**Total contribution**", "**0.68M**", "**2.06M**", "**3.99M**"],
|
||
["Cash overheads", "0.45M", "0.33M", "0.20M"],
|
||
["**EBITDA**", "**0.23M**", "**1.73M**", "**3.79M**"],
|
||
["Depreciation", "0.89M", "0.52M", "0.33M"],
|
||
["**Operating profit**", "**-0.66M**", "**1.21M**", "**3.46M**"],
|
||
["Revenue", "2.28M (~75M THB)", "3.65M (~120M THB)", "5.41M (~179M THB)"],
|
||
["Payback (EBITDA, mature year)", "never", "~3.8 yr (2.8 to 5.1 on 4.9M to 8.9M)", "~1.3 yr"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[50, 36, 48, 36],
|
||
caption="Estimates, docs/finance/revenue-model.md 'Operating picture of the launch plant (October "
|
||
"2026)'. Title services at 60 to 70 % contribution after lacquers, styli and nickel."),
|
||
CALL("Reading this table honestly", [
|
||
"**The central case works on 216M THB.** EBITDA ~1.7M USD (~57M THB) and operating profit ~1.2M "
|
||
"USD (~40M THB) a year once the plant runs at volume. It breaks even on operating profit at about "
|
||
"**0.25 million records a year, about a third of its output**. Against the earlier ~20 % specials "
|
||
"share (0.84M records, EBITDA 1.63M) more specials earn a higher price on fewer records.",
|
||
"**The adverse case cannot cover depreciation at any volume three presses make.** It would need "
|
||
"~1.1 million records. It stacks the low price, the high cost, the high capital and the high "
|
||
"overheads at once. At the central cost and volume, the price that covers depreciation is only "
|
||
"~2.7 to 3.0 USD (~90 to 98 THB) a record, below the low price assumed: price realisation and "
|
||
"utilisation decide solvency, not upside.",
|
||
"**The central margin is too good to trust yet.** A central EBITDA margin of ~47 % is far above "
|
||
"the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn. The direct cost table counts only per-record consumables and "
|
||
"direct payroll and leaves out indirect labour (supervision, planning, warehouse), freight, scrap "
|
||
"above the reject allowance and sales commissions. **Treat the adverse column as the honest one "
|
||
"until those lines exist.**",
|
||
"**This is a sensitivity, not a forecast.** The plant and business plan calculator, with its own "
|
||
"cost build-up (it adds electric steam heat and the cutting engineer, which this table leaves "
|
||
"out) and the team's faster Duplex planning rate, at which the launch plant is not Duplex-limited, "
|
||
"gives at 850k records and 60 % specials: revenue 4.14M, EBITDA 2.07M, operating profit 1.52M "
|
||
"USD, payback 3.3 years on a mature year; with a ramp of 35, 70 and 90 % in the first three "
|
||
"years, cash payback in year ~4.8 and ~18 % IRR over ten years, pre-tax and pre-financing "
|
||
"(estimates). "
|
||
"Not modelled here: cassette and CD-R lines, stamper supply to "
|
||
"other plants, dropshipping fees, and the ramp year. BOI tax exemptions shield part of early-year "
|
||
"profits where there are any.",
|
||
]),
|
||
|
||
H2("9.5 The ramp"),
|
||
P("The table above is a mature year. The launch plant does not start there. It is commissioned in "
|
||
"sequence: first the cutting room and galvanics (the presses need their stampers), then the Duplex "
|
||
"system, then the Classic. Early production runs slower and rejects more than any of these figures "
|
||
"while the process settles, and the crews of a two-shift plant are on the payroll before the "
|
||
"volume is. The **ramp-up reserve of ~10M to 20M THB** (estimate, outside the investment total) is "
|
||
"there to carry staff hired before first revenue and overheads until volume covers them. Fan-funded "
|
||
"campaigns on the artist platform open only after the first releases have shipped and lead times "
|
||
"are measured."),
|
||
P("**A year-by-year cash model for the ramp is a next step, not a claim this plan makes.** It belongs "
|
||
"to the financing discussion and needs the vendor build times and the commissioning calendar "
|
||
"(section 10) first."),
|
||
P("**The growth option.** A second Duplex system (two more semi-automatic presses) lifts the plant to "
|
||
"~1.0 to 1.5 million records a year, roughly **+0.3 to 0.5 million records**, for **~USD 230k to "
|
||
"300k** for the press system (estimate: two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set, "
|
||
"plus hydraulic unit and EX 35, no EX 35 price on file); its utility modules and installation come "
|
||
"on top. The hall, the module positions in the boiler hall and chiller compound, and the ring-main "
|
||
"tees are reserved for it, so it is a revenue-funded step, not a rebuild."),
|
||
|
||
# ----------------------------------------------- 10 timeline
|
||
H1("10. Timeline: today to first paying release"),
|
||
P("Every duration is an estimate. The calendar in the planning repository was drawn in August 2026 and "
|
||
"has not yet been re-drawn for the launch plant; nothing in phase 0 has started, so it shifts day "
|
||
"for day with the BOI consultant engagement. On that calendar, **first paying release lands around "
|
||
"Q4 2028 to mid-2029, roughly 27 to 33 months from the start of phase 0.** This plan quotes that "
|
||
"as the working figure, not as a re-based date (the executive summary marks it open), and flags "
|
||
"the new risk to it: the launch plant puts the metal path on the critical path."),
|
||
CALL("The critical path", [
|
||
"**BOI certificate → long-lead orders → vendor builds → sea freight → commissioning of the cutting "
|
||
"room and galvanics → first stampers → press commissioning → test pressings → first paying "
|
||
"release.** Everything else, including the entire building, has float against that chain.",
|
||
"**Galvanics and cutting now come before the first paying release.** There are no bridge stampers "
|
||
"and no outsourced cutting in the launch plant, so the presses cannot press a paying title until "
|
||
"the cutting room cuts lacquers and the galvanics line grows fathers, mothers and stampers that "
|
||
"pass inspection. The August calendar did not contain this step; whether it fits inside the 2 to "
|
||
"3 months of installation and commissioning depends on build times nobody has quoted and on two "
|
||
"hires.",
|
||
"**The press build time is still assumed.** 9 to 12 months is an industry-typical figure for a "
|
||
"built-to-order system from a small German manufacturer, and it carries about 40 % of the "
|
||
"schedule. If the real figure is 15 to 18 months, launch moves to mid-2029.",
|
||
"**The other vendors are unquoted too.** The Sillitoe lathe is built to order, and the Pheenix line "
|
||
"and the Sibert machines have no lead time on file. Build time and order-book position are "
|
||
"required fields in every re-quote; it is one line in each email and the highest-value missing "
|
||
"fact in the project.",
|
||
]),
|
||
T(["#", "Step", "Duration", "Source"], [
|
||
["1", "Engage BOI consultant, prepare application", "4 to 5 months", "Estimate"],
|
||
["2", "BOI review to certificate", "4 to 6 months", "BOI: ~40 working days decision, 4 to 6 "
|
||
"months in practice"],
|
||
["3", "Company incorporation under the certificate", "1 to 2 months", "Roadmap"],
|
||
["4", "Press order to vendor-ready", "**9 to 12 months**", "**Assumed; not yet quoted.** Pheenix, "
|
||
"Sillitoe and Sibert build times also unquoted"],
|
||
["5", "Sea freight Europe to Thailand", "6 to 8 weeks", "Newbilt quote includes freight"],
|
||
["6", "Install, commission, train", "2 to 3 months", "Newbilt includes 5 days; rest at ~USD 97/h "
|
||
"plus travel"],
|
||
["6a", "Commission the cutting room and galvanics; first stampers pass inspection", "**Not yet "
|
||
"estimated**", "**New with the launch plant**; must finish before step 7"],
|
||
["7", "Test pressings, QC baseline, reject shakedown", "1.5 to 2 months", "Roadmap"],
|
||
["", "**Total**", "**~27 to 33 months**", "August 2026 calendar, before step 6a"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[10, 68, 34, 58]),
|
||
T(["Track (in parallel)", "Needed by", "Float", "Becomes critical if"], [
|
||
["Land lease, zoning, soil test", "Design start, ~Q1 2027", "~4 months", "Zoning fails and a new "
|
||
"site is needed (~6 months reset); the plot Payap first offered already fails zoning"],
|
||
["Construction, incl. the water-treatment building and utility yard", "Machinery arrival, "
|
||
"~Q3 2028", "~3 to 5 months", "Soft soil forces piling, or permits stall; the galvanics room, "
|
||
"clean zone and ZLD plant are now needed first, ahead of the press hall"],
|
||
["Factory licence (Ror.Ngor. 4) with galvanics in the first licence", "First production, Q4 2028",
|
||
"~4 months", "Galvanics effluent and hazardous-substance registration are now in the first "
|
||
"licence scope: the most likely regulatory friction point; ZLD design in the application from "
|
||
"the start"],
|
||
["Solar and battery (purchase or PPA)", "Fit-out, ~Q2 2028", "Large", "Not a risk; battery lead "
|
||
"time is 50 to 60 days"],
|
||
["Cassette and CD-R lines", "Fit-out, ~Q2 2028", "Large", "Not a risk; short lead times"],
|
||
["Hiring: galvanics process engineer and cutting engineer", "Before the metal path commissions",
|
||
"**None: now on the critical path**", "Galvanics is the hardest skill to hire; both people must "
|
||
"be hired and trained (at the vendors) before step 6a"],
|
||
["Hiring and training: the rest of the launch team", "Commissioning, ~Q3 2028", "~2 months",
|
||
"Two shifts are needed from the start of volume production"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[42, 36, 28, 64]),
|
||
P("**BOI windows are comfortable** on the August calendar: machinery clears customs ~Q3 2028 against a "
|
||
"30-month import window ending ~Q4 2029 (~15 months of margin), and first production ~Q4 2028 "
|
||
"against a ~36-month full-operation deadline (~18 months). The launch plant puts four vendors' "
|
||
"machines, not one, inside the import window. The margin is consumed by exactly one scenario: "
|
||
"filing early to start the clock and then discovering the site does not work. Verify zoning before "
|
||
"filing."),
|
||
P("**The one lever worth six to nine months** is the BOI sequencing question in section 7: the duty "
|
||
"exemption attaches at importation, not at contract signature, so if an order and deposit can be "
|
||
"placed while the application is in review, the press build overlaps the BOI process. It is a "
|
||
"question for the BOI consultant, not a claim. The land lease cannot pull the launch forward on its "
|
||
"own: construction has float against the vendor chain, and only the orders move the end date."),
|
||
P("**What a delay costs.** A month lost engaging the BOI consultant costs a month of launch. A month "
|
||
"lost on land or construction costs nothing until the float is gone. A month lost getting the "
|
||
"vendor build times in writing, or hiring the galvanics and cutting engineers, costs nothing today "
|
||
"and may cost months of surprise later."),
|
||
|
||
# ------------------------------------ 11 phasing and commissioning sequence
|
||
H1("11. Phasing and commissioning sequence"),
|
||
P("The plant launches with the whole chain in one capital round. That replaces the September draft's "
|
||
"phased entry, in which galvanics, cutting and the automatic press followed from revenue. The "
|
||
"gates have not moved: no machinery order before the BOI certificate, no large spending before the "
|
||
"market validates the price, no coppice planning before the land-title check. What changed is "
|
||
"that the round, once released, buys the full launch plant, and only growth stays revenue-gated."),
|
||
T(["Phase", "Content", "Gate"], [
|
||
["0. Validate and clear the gates (now)", "Market validation with regional labels and distributors; "
|
||
"BOI consultant, activity code, application; lease terms, zoning, soil test; 60 rai title check; "
|
||
"re-quotes and quotes from every launch vendor (section 14.1)", "Runs in parallel; gates "
|
||
"everything"],
|
||
["1. Quotes and site (during the BOI window)", "Firm quotes with build times; site selection "
|
||
"between the Mueang Chi lease, other Payap land and the industrial estate; resolve the 35 % vs "
|
||
"45 % humidity floor", "BOI filed"],
|
||
["2. Commit", "Incorporate under the certificate; sign the lease; order every long-lead item: "
|
||
"Pheenix galvanics line, Sillitoe lathe, Sibert line, Newbilt Duplex and Classic, first two "
|
||
"boiler and chiller modules", "BOI certificate and validated pricing"],
|
||
["3. Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)", "Construction, water-treatment "
|
||
"building, utilities, HVAC, clean zones, solar, security, crane; machinery installation and "
|
||
"vendor commissioning; traceability and ERPNext live before the machines; hire and train",
|
||
"Building permit, vendor build dates confirmed"],
|
||
["4. Launch (the whole chain in-house)", "Commission in sequence (table below); test pressings, QC "
|
||
"baselines, reject shakedown; first paying releases; per-lot PVC gate live; qualify Thai "
|
||
"compound", "Commissioning complete"],
|
||
["5. Expand (revenue-gated)", "Second Duplex system; further Classics; the metrology parts bought "
|
||
"from revenue if that lever is used; the visitor corridor if built later; the biomass boiler if "
|
||
"steam starts electric; the phase 2 building; CD replication if chosen", "Revenue and, for CD "
|
||
"replication, a separate "
|
||
"decision"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[42, 96, 32], font_pt=8.5),
|
||
H2("11.1 Commissioning sequence"),
|
||
T(["Step", "What is commissioned", "Why in this order"], [
|
||
["1", "Cutting room (Sillitoe SDMS) and galvanics (Pheenix line with ZLD and DI water), with the "
|
||
"Sibert stamper-prep line", "The presses need their stampers; no bridge stampers are planned. "
|
||
"First lacquers, fathers, mothers and stampers, and the metal archive "
|
||
"from the first title"],
|
||
["2", "Newbilt Duplex system (two HRP 12, EX 50 and EX 35), with the steam and cooling plant "
|
||
"(boiler modules B-1, B-2; chiller modules CH-1, CH-2)", "The semi-automatic presses suit the "
|
||
"colour, splatter and boutique runs "
|
||
"that carry the premiums, and they "
|
||
"teach the crews the process"],
|
||
["3", "Newbilt Classic, fully automatic", "Volume runs once the metal path and the press process "
|
||
"are stable"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[12, 78, 80]),
|
||
P("If commissioning of the metal path slips, Stamper Discs (stampers) and SST in Frankfurt (lacquer "
|
||
"cutting, already Poy Records' cutter) stay contacts for overflow and for a slipping commissioning, "
|
||
"not a plan."),
|
||
|
||
H2("11.2 Why the whole chain at launch"),
|
||
P("This is the decision with the most consequences in the plan, and the investor should see both sides:"),
|
||
T(["For", "Against, and the risks it takes on"], [
|
||
["**No bridge stampers.** A plant that buys every stamper set abroad waits on two international "
|
||
"freight legs per job and on one small overseas supplier; that is the bottleneck this plant "
|
||
"exists to remove.", "**Supplier advice.** Sibert, which sells into the galvanics line, advised "
|
||
"after Haarlem, against its own interest, to get presses, boilers, operators "
|
||
"and live feedback loops right first and to earn some return before every "
|
||
"manufacturing step is in place."],
|
||
["**Title services and repress economics.** Cutting and plating in-house earn the per-title fees "
|
||
"(the middle price is 37,836 THB a title), and the archived father and mother of every side let "
|
||
"a repress, or a worn mother, be regrown without a recut.", "**Galvanics skill.** It is the "
|
||
"hardest skill to hire, and the "
|
||
"process engineer probably comes "
|
||
"from abroad or is trained abroad. "
|
||
"The first paying release now waits "
|
||
"for it."],
|
||
["**The Thai market gap is metalwork, not presses.** The incumbent turns away small runs and adds "
|
||
"weeks above 3,000 units, most plausibly because every stamper set is an import (section 3.3).",
|
||
"**Permitting.** Galvanics effluent and hazardous-substance registration move into the first "
|
||
"factory licence, the most likely regulatory friction point in the project; zero discharge from "
|
||
"the start, and on Payap land the lessor's consent as well."],
|
||
["**The cutting room is a smaller decision than it was.** The Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k with "
|
||
"automation in the box, and the Payap programmes in mastering and lathe cutting need a working "
|
||
"room.", "**More capital up front.** ~161M to 292M THB in one round, against ~57M to 95M THB for "
|
||
"the superseded phased entry; more of it is committed before the market has validated "
|
||
"the price."],
|
||
], widths_mm=[85, 85], font_pt=8.5),
|
||
P("**How the plan answers the risks:** commission the metal path first and measure it before the "
|
||
"presses depend on it; hire the galvanics and cutting engineers early and train them at the "
|
||
"vendors; design zero discharge from the start; and release the round in tranches (section 8.3), "
|
||
"so that nothing is ordered before the BOI certificate and validated pricing."),
|
||
|
||
# --------------------------------------- 12 team, ownership, governance
|
||
H1("12. Team, ownership and governance"),
|
||
H2("12.1 The people"),
|
||
T(["Who", "Role"], [
|
||
["Simona Meesaiyati", "Project Lead: management and the audio side."],
|
||
["Alexander Grabowski", "Technical Consultant: the technical side (equipment selection and vendors, "
|
||
"utilities, the building model, the traceability and QC specification, the factory software)."],
|
||
["buildfor.life", "Supports the project in a consulting capacity."],
|
||
["Ploy Printing (Ploy Karnpim Limited Partnership, Chiang Mai)", "Packaging partner and intended "
|
||
"strategic co-investor: jackets, sleeves, inserts, J-cards and CD packaging on offset, digital, "
|
||
"risograph, UV and latex presses, with existing vinyl packaging production."],
|
||
["Payap University (Chiang Mai)", "Partnership under discussion (October 2026): joint student "
|
||
"programmes around the plant in mastering and lathe cutting, IT and business administration, "
|
||
"starting small (memorandum, internships, short certificate courses). Nothing is agreed yet; "
|
||
"scope, form and money are open. It is a hiring pipeline for the hardest roles, not a substitute "
|
||
"for hiring them: the teacher comes before the students."],
|
||
["To be hired, at launch", "**Galvanics process engineer** and **cutting engineer** (both on the "
|
||
"critical path, section 10; a cutting engineer earns about 50,000 THB a month base, team "
|
||
"figure); plant manager; galvanics operators; QC lead; maintenance; press and finishing operators "
|
||
"for two shifts; sales and customer service for labels, artists and the traceability portal."],
|
||
["External", "BOI-registered consultant; Thai counsel for the lease, company and shareholder "
|
||
"agreement; optional vinyl manufacturing consultancy for layout, installation and training "
|
||
"(GBP 10k to 20k packages); vendor commissioning and training (Newbilt, Pheenix, Sibert, "
|
||
"Sillitoe); property insurer."],
|
||
], widths_mm=[48, 122]),
|
||
P("Headcount: the launch plant runs the whole chain on two shifts, so it needs most of the mature crew "
|
||
"from the start: a direct production payroll of 13 to 19 (8 to 12 press and finishing operators, 2 "
|
||
"to 3 galvanics, 1 to 2 QC, 2 maintenance), 1 to 2 mastering and cutting engineers, and 3 to 5 in "
|
||
"admin, sales and logistics. The revenue model plans on about 20 people at the start (estimate), "
|
||
"plus 1 to 2 for the cassette and CD-R lines. A process engineer from abroad can be employed on a "
|
||
"BOI work permit (section 7)."),
|
||
H2("12.2 Ownership and structure"),
|
||
P("Amounts and percentages are not yet agreed and are deliberately left open here. The intended "
|
||
"structure is:"),
|
||
B([
|
||
"**One Thai limited company** holds the plant, the lease, the equipment and the BOI promotion. BOI "
|
||
"promotion permits 100 % foreign ownership of the promoted manufacturing activity, so the "
|
||
"shareholding can be set on commercial terms rather than to satisfy the Foreign Business Act.",
|
||
"**Shareholders:** the lead investor; Ploy Printing as strategic co-investor; and the founders. "
|
||
"Ploy Printing's participation, whether in cash, in kind (print capacity, premises, working "
|
||
"capital in packaging) or both, is to be discussed; its strategic value is a packaging partner "
|
||
"whose incentives are aligned with the plant's schedule and quality, within the same province.",
|
||
"**Debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1**, maintained for the life of the BOI privileges, which sets "
|
||
"the floor on equity in the financing mix: at least a quarter of the funding, ~54M THB on the "
|
||
"216M target (arithmetic, before financing costs).",
|
||
"**A shareholders' agreement** covering board composition, reserved matters (capital calls and "
|
||
"tranche releases, the growth options such as a second Duplex, CD replication), pre-emption and "
|
||
"transfer, information rights, and the founders' roles and remuneration.",
|
||
"**Related-party discipline.** Ploy Printing will be both a shareholder and the plant's main "
|
||
"packaging supplier. The supply agreement is priced at arm's length, benchmarked periodically "
|
||
"against other printers, with quality and lead-time terms written down, and Ploy Printing abstains "
|
||
"from board decisions on its own contract. This protects both the lead investor and Ploy Printing, "
|
||
"and it is what a BOI or bank reviewer will look for.",
|
||
"**Any label, content or retail activity (Poy Records as a brand) sits in a separate entity**, so "
|
||
"the manufacturing company's BOI application stays clean.",
|
||
]),
|
||
|
||
# ------------------------------------------------------ 13 risks
|
||
H1("13. Risks and open questions"),
|
||
P("Every plan has risks; the point of listing them is to say which are being retired, by what, and "
|
||
"when. The first column is the plan's own honest severity. The September draft's bridge-stamper "
|
||
"risk is gone with the bridge stampers; the launch plant brings its own in its place."),
|
||
T(["Severity", "Risk", "What it would do", "Mitigation and status"], [
|
||
["High", "Pricing power in the region is unproven", "The single biggest assumption in the revenue "
|
||
"model; a turnaround advantage nobody pays a premium for is a cost, not a moat", "Market "
|
||
"validation gate: regional label conversations, the artist platform's calculator as an interest "
|
||
"list, a second Thai data point; no large spending before it clears"],
|
||
["High", "Utilisation and price", "The cost structure is mostly fixed; the adverse case loses "
|
||
"money even at the full volume of three presses (it needs ~1.1M records to cover depreciation); "
|
||
"at 60 % specials the Duplex rate and the extra cost of specials decide volume and margin",
|
||
"Central breaks even at ~0.25M records; commission in sequence; growth options wait for demand; "
|
||
"treat the adverse column as the honest one"],
|
||
["High", "Galvanics and cutting on the critical path", "No paying release until the cutting room "
|
||
"and galvanics make good stampers; a slow start there delays every press", "Commission the "
|
||
"metal path first and measure it; vendor training; Stamper Discs and SST as contacts for a "
|
||
"slipping commissioning, not a plan"],
|
||
["High", "Skills: galvanics process engineer, cutting engineer", "Galvanics is the hardest skill to "
|
||
"hire; both roles are now needed at launch", "Recruit or train abroad; BOI work permits; vendor "
|
||
"training (Pheenix, Sillitoe, OMS as a reference); Payap programmes as a longer-term pipeline"],
|
||
["High", "Missing prices: Classic and Pheenix line", "Two of the largest machine lines have no "
|
||
"vendor price; the Classic band is a placeholder", "Newbilt re-quote and Pheenix quote in phase "
|
||
"0; OMS's reference prices as the galvanics "
|
||
"benchmark"],
|
||
["High", "Budget fit against 216M THB", "Midpoint ~227M is ~11M over; the high end is ~292M",
|
||
"Four levers bring the midpoint to ~203M to 213M with the reserve; four requests settle most of "
|
||
"the band; tranche release"],
|
||
["High", "Vendor build times unknown", "The press build carries ~40 % of the schedule; 15 to 18 "
|
||
"months would push launch to mid-2029; Pheenix, Sillitoe and Sibert lead times also unquoted",
|
||
"Required field in every re-quote, now"],
|
||
["High", "Zoning of the chosen plot unverified", "A site reset costs ~6 months; the Payap point "
|
||
"already fails zoning; Mueang Chi is unverified", "Verify on the land-use map and with counsel "
|
||
"before the BOI filing; industrial estate as "
|
||
"fallback"],
|
||
["Medium", "Lease terms and building ownership", "A weak lease makes the building hard to finance "
|
||
"and exposes it at expiry", "Registered 30 to 50 year lease with renewal, explicit building "
|
||
"ownership and assignment rights; Thai counsel in phase 0"],
|
||
["Medium", "Soil conditions", "Piling could add several hundred to 1,000+ THB/m² across building, "
|
||
"paving and fill", "Soil boring test in phase 0 (THB 30k to 50k)"],
|
||
["Medium", "Galvanics permitting", "Effluent and hazardous-substance permitting are the most likely "
|
||
"regulatory friction, now in the first factory licence", "Zero-discharge design and the "
|
||
"water-treatment building from the "
|
||
"start; industrial estate option; "
|
||
"lessor's consent on Payap land"],
|
||
["Medium", "Utilities fuel choice open", "Biomass heat costs a quarter to a tenth of electric steam "
|
||
"at reported fuel prices; electric steam needs a larger grid connection, biomass a secured fuel "
|
||
"supply", "Decide before the boiler request and the grid application; quote electric and fired "
|
||
"variants of the same modules"],
|
||
["Medium", "Boiler import compliance (DIW)", "An imported boiler must meet ASME, JIS, EN or "
|
||
"equivalent and be verified by a DIW-registered certification body; the modules run above the "
|
||
"once-through relief", "ASME Section I design with the S stamp and the full dossier; "
|
||
"certification body engaged before the order; the same for a Thai-bought "
|
||
"boiler"],
|
||
["Medium", "Single press vendor (Newbilt)", "All three presses, the extruders and the hydraulic "
|
||
"aggregates come from one small German manufacturer; build time and order book unknown", "Spares "
|
||
"and service terms in the re-quote; the Pheenix automatic press stays the comparison if the "
|
||
"Classic quote disappoints"],
|
||
["Medium", "Hydraulic ring-main contamination", "One shared oil system: a contamination event "
|
||
"reaches every press", "ISO 4406 target, flushing to ISO 23309, particle counts at acceptance "
|
||
"and after flushing, non-bypass branch filters, isolation per press, online particle counter, "
|
||
"kidney loop; central plant still to be quoted"],
|
||
["Medium", "Currency", "EUR on Newbilt and Pheenix, USD on Sibert and Sillitoe, THB costs, USD/EUR "
|
||
"revenue; a 10 % baht move is worth 0.09 to 0.17 USD per record on margin", "Currency and "
|
||
"validity in every "
|
||
"quote; THB pricing "
|
||
"regionally; hedging "
|
||
"decision with the "
|
||
"investor"],
|
||
["Medium", "Vinyl demand is cyclical", "Global capacity has been added; the model assumes the plant "
|
||
"sells what it presses", "Mixed fleet suits boutique work that is less cyclical; cassette and "
|
||
"CD-R lines diversify; growth options wait for demand"],
|
||
["Medium", "Reject rate in early production", "Early runs, and the first stampers from a new "
|
||
"galvanics room, will be worse than the 5 to 10 % allowance while the process settles", "Vendor "
|
||
"commissioning, stamper metrology, materials lab from day one, QC layers, conservative launch "
|
||
"promises; the ramp-up reserve"],
|
||
["Medium", "Competitive response", "The incumbent may add plating, or a second entrant may appear; "
|
||
"the domestic price ceiling may compress on our arrival", "Compete on capability (traceability, "
|
||
"QC, climate), export customers, and "
|
||
"the collaboration under discussion"],
|
||
["Low", "Solar and battery integration", "Rack voltage vs inverter window; unpublished "
|
||
"certifications; mixed-vendor warranty", "Engineering checks and certificate requests in phase "
|
||
"0, or a PPA that moves it to the installer; large float"],
|
||
["Low", "Cassette supply chain", "Blank tape and shells come from few suppliers", "Hold stock; "
|
||
"qualify two "
|
||
"sources"],
|
||
["Low", "CD replication scope creep", "Adds USD 1.5M to 4.0M and a second commissioning programme",
|
||
"Decide before BOI filing; treat as a separate project if chosen"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[16, 40, 52, 62], font_pt=8),
|
||
P("**Open questions with owners** are in the next section. Two standing caveats on the evidence base: "
|
||
"the Thai market data is one buyer, one plant and one afternoon, and the underlying invoices and "
|
||
"tour notes should be archived with this plan before it goes in front of a bank; and the industry "
|
||
"interest in traceability at Making Vinyl Europe 2026 is supplier-side evidence, not buyer price "
|
||
"validation."),
|
||
|
||
# ------------------------------------------------- 14 next steps
|
||
H1("14. Next steps and the ask"),
|
||
H2("14.1 Phase 0: the next three to six months"),
|
||
T(["#", "Action", "Owner", "Cost", "Retires"], [
|
||
["1", "Market validation with regional labels and distributors: the 3.50 to 4.60 USD blended "
|
||
"price, run sizes, and whether faster turnaround earns a premium; publish the artist platform's "
|
||
"calculator early with indicative prices and an interest list", "Simona, Alexander", "Travel",
|
||
"Pricing risk"],
|
||
["2", "Engage a BOI-registered consultant: activity sub-code; the order-before-certificate question "
|
||
"first; galvanics, cassette and CD-R in the application; CD replication decision; whether a solar "
|
||
"PPA affects the solar measure; Payap R&D", "Simona", "USD 5k to 15k", "Sequencing, scope"],
|
||
["3", "Thai counsel: lease heads of terms (term, renewal, building ownership, assignment) and zoning "
|
||
"of the chosen plot for pressing, a steam boiler and electroplating; company and shareholder "
|
||
"structure including Ploy Printing", "Simona, counsel", "USD 5k to 15k", "Zoning, lease, "
|
||
"ownership"],
|
||
["4", "Soil boring test on the chosen plot", "Alexander", "THB 30k to 50k", "Ground risk"],
|
||
["5", "Newbilt re-quote: Duplex (EX 50 and EX 35) and Classic, with build time, order-book "
|
||
"position, PLC data access, central hydraulic supply and written hydraulic requirements, currency "
|
||
"and validity", "Alexander", "Free", "Classic price, schedule"],
|
||
["6", "Pheenix quote for the galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, PDPU, PMPB) with lead time and training; "
|
||
"OMS dedicated offer as the reference; ZLD and DI water vendor", "Alexander", "Free",
|
||
"Largest unpriced block"],
|
||
["7", "Sillitoe quote and build time (SDMS, spare cutterhead, support terms, DMM question)",
|
||
"Alexander", "Free", "Cutting room, schedule"],
|
||
["8", "Sibert itemised quotation and order terms against the USD 250k budget: lead time, "
|
||
"installation time, spares, shipping, travel", "Alexander", "Free", "Stamper prep, schedule"],
|
||
["9", "Building request for quotation to two or three Thai pre-engineered building contractors, "
|
||
"with the soil result", "Alexander", "Free", "Building estimate"],
|
||
["10", "Utility requests: Thai suppliers; Chinese boiler makers (ZOZEN, Sitong, Fangkuai, Taiguo; "
|
||
"1.25 MPa, ASME S stamp, electric and fired variants); compressors from Kaishan and Denair's Thai "
|
||
"offices; chillers and HVAC, Chinese makers included; the 35 % vs 45 % humidity floor; a Thai "
|
||
"hydraulic builder for the central plant", "Alexander", "Free", "Utilities band, fuel choice"],
|
||
["11", "Metrology distributor quotes (XRF, confocal, profiler, inline vision, audio station)",
|
||
"Alexander", "Free", "Metrology band"],
|
||
["12", "Solar PPA offers next to the purchase quote; battery and inverter engineering checks",
|
||
"Alexander", "Free", "Solar lever"],
|
||
["13", "Cassette and CD-R equipment quotes from two vendors each; tape and shell supply",
|
||
"Alexander", "Free", "New-scope estimates"],
|
||
["14", "Search for the galvanics process engineer and the cutting engineer; next meeting with Payap "
|
||
"on the programmes", "Simona, Alexander", "None yet", "Skills risk"],
|
||
["15", "60 rai title check for the coppice plan", "Simona", "Small", "Biomass path"],
|
||
["16", "Optional: vinyl manufacturing consultancy for a layout and installation review",
|
||
"Alexander", "GBP 10k to 20k", "Layout risk"],
|
||
["17", "Archive the Thai invoices and tour notes with this plan", "Simona", "None", "Evidence base"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[8, 84, 26, 24, 28], font_pt=8),
|
||
H2("14.2 What the investor is asked for"),
|
||
KV([
|
||
["Now", "Approval of Phase 0 spending of ~USD 40k to 80k (~1.3M to 2.6M THB, part of the launch-plant "
|
||
"total), so the quotes, the soil test, the BOI consultant and counsel can start."],
|
||
["On the gates clearing", "A commitment in principle to the launch plant at a **target of ~216M "
|
||
"THB**, released in the tranches of section 8.3, with the financing mix "
|
||
"set to hold debt-to-equity at or below 3:1. Told plainly: at the "
|
||
"midpoint, 216M holds with the four levers and the ramp-up reserve "
|
||
"inside it; 180M holds only if the open quotes land low, because even "
|
||
"the levers plus scope cuts (cassette and CD-R later, a rented crane) "
|
||
"leave ~185M before the reserve. Until the four requests are back, the "
|
||
"honest range is ~161M to 292M THB."],
|
||
["Decisions", "The equity and debt mix; CD replication, yes or no, before the BOI application is "
|
||
"finalised; the steam fuel (electric or biomass); which levers to take (solar PPA, "
|
||
"metrology launch tier, visitor corridor later); the shareholder structure with Ploy "
|
||
"Printing and the founders; hedging of the EUR orders."],
|
||
["Later", "Revenue-funded growth: the second Duplex system (~USD 230k to 300k for the presses, "
|
||
"estimate), further Classics, the rest of the metrology stack, the biomass boiler if "
|
||
"steam starts electric, and the phase 2 building."],
|
||
], widths_mm=[38, 132]),
|
||
P("The next version of this plan should carry: the Newbilt, Pheenix, Sillitoe and Sibert quotes with "
|
||
"their build times in place of the placeholder and estimated blocks; the building quote with the "
|
||
"soil result; the negotiated lease; a buyer-side price data point; the investor's CD and fuel "
|
||
"decisions; a calendar re-drawn for the launch plant with the metal-path commissioning in it; a "
|
||
"year-by-year cash model for the ramp; and the shareholder terms. Each of those is a phase 0 "
|
||
"output."),
|
||
|
||
# --------------------------------------------------- 15 appendix
|
||
H1("15. Appendix: sources and planning documents"),
|
||
P("This plan is compiled from the project's planning repository (cnx_vinyl, on the project's Gitea "
|
||
"server git.b4l.co.th), which is the source of truth and holds the detail behind every section. "
|
||
"Paths are relative to docs/:"),
|
||
T(["Document", "Content"], [
|
||
["roadmap.md", "Next steps in dependency order, from the gates through the launch plant's "
|
||
"commissioning sequence to the revenue-gated growth options"],
|
||
["project-timeline.md", "Calendar to first paying release, critical path and float (August 2026 "
|
||
"calendar, to be re-drawn for the launch plant)"],
|
||
["scale.md", "Project sizing on one page: capacity per fleet, building zones, electrical, solar, "
|
||
"steam and cooling, utility phasing, people"],
|
||
["finance/total-investment.md", "The launch-plant roll-up (October 2026) with the basis of every "
|
||
"block, the investor's 180M THB question and the levers; the "
|
||
"superseded full vision and phased entry"],
|
||
["finance/revenue-model.md", "Pricing, the Thai market data and factory tour, the Record Industry "
|
||
"benchmark, direct cost, the launch-plant operating picture"],
|
||
["finance/utilities-investment.csv", "Thai supplier candidates and budgetary ranges for steam, "
|
||
"cooling, air, water, HVAC, solar and battery"],
|
||
["finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md", "Contractor price request with quantities from the "
|
||
"parametric model"],
|
||
["fleet-calculator.html", "Press fleet calculator: target output and specials share to the "
|
||
"Duplex/Classic mix, people, utilities and the operating picture"],
|
||
["equipment/pressing-line.md and equipment/newbilt/", "Press fleet strategy, hydraulic ring mains; "
|
||
"Newbilt offer, site requirements, service "
|
||
"rates, 2026 product flyers"],
|
||
["equipment/galvanics.md (with pheenix-alpha/, sibert/, oms/)", "Pheenix electroforming line, "
|
||
"Sibert stamper prep, OMS reference "
|
||
"prices, cycle times, the metal "
|
||
"archive"],
|
||
["suppliers/vendor-landscape.md, equipment-suppliers.md", "Per-vendor narrative (lathes, cutting "
|
||
"services) and the full needs list with "
|
||
"contacts"],
|
||
["suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md", "Making Vinyl Europe 2026 briefing and what "
|
||
"came after the show"],
|
||
["suppliers/china-utilities.md", "Chinese boilers, compressed air and hydraulics; Thai rules for "
|
||
"imported boilers; what the Chinese route saves"],
|
||
["digital-factory.md", "Data platform: ERPNext as the only system of record, machine data, the "
|
||
"factory application, the NixOS fleet"],
|
||
["artist-platform.md (demos artist-order.html, make-a-record.html)", "Upload and itemised price "
|
||
"calculator, fan-funded "
|
||
"campaigns"],
|
||
["process-flow.md, production-timeline.md", "The chain and its checks; order turnaround stage by "
|
||
"stage, lead times and the repress path"],
|
||
["traceability.md, quality-automation.md", "The traceability specification; metrology, layered "
|
||
"record QC, the materials lab"],
|
||
["sustainability.md, biomass.md, steam-cooling.html", "Solar, heat recovery, water, zero discharge, "
|
||
"the grid tariff; the biomass fuel strategy; "
|
||
"the steam and cooling plant"],
|
||
["facility-security.md, worker-safety.md", "Climate control, security, fire and life safety, the "
|
||
"archive room; training, clean rooms, PPE"],
|
||
["crane-workshop-tours.md", "Overhead crane, maintenance workshop, visitor corridor"],
|
||
["site-candidates.md and land-listings/", "Mueang Chi, the industrial estate and Payap land; the "
|
||
"checks before choosing; zoning records"],
|
||
["payap-partnership.md", "Joint student programmes with Payap University"],
|
||
["boi.md", "BOI promotion strategy, requirements, process, open items"],
|
||
["cnx_vinyl_parametric.FCStd, cnx_vinyl_parametric_payap.FCStd and renders/", "Parametric building "
|
||
"and site models on "
|
||
"the candidate "
|
||
"plots, and their "
|
||
"renders"],
|
||
], widths_mm=[62, 108], font_pt=8.5),
|
||
P("Vendor PDFs and spreadsheets are primary sources and reflect the state of negotiations at their file "
|
||
"dates. Treat prices and lead times as snapshots, not commitments."),
|
||
]
|