grabowski
20c8d283d5
Currency - Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at 5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change. - Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs. - Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD. New documents - production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch 8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number, and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate. - project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028. Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather than at contract signature. First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok) - Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic. - Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes. - The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1. - Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a second data point exists. Corrections - Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the previous "40 to 55%" was not supported. - Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M to 38M. - README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
4.6 KiB
4.6 KiB
Total Investment: Rough Picture
Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.
Currency: USD and THB. FX at 5 August 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB. Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at 1 EUR = 1.155 USD and 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. Original figures compiled July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at ~38 is where it was when they were made.
Full vision, all blocks
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote |
| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning |
| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research |
| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row |
| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate, pricing unpublished |
| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew lathe and head, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 290k – 580k | 9.6M – 19.1M | estimate, bespoke market |
| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.5M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable |
| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 730k – 1,270k | 24.0M – 41.6M | reviewed utilities CSV, THB-native |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.2M | estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
| Land 6–8 rai, if purchased | 360k – 970k | 12.0M – 32.0M | estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
| Traceability and factory software | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate |
| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Subtotal | ~4.1M – 7.7M | ~135M – 254M | |
| Contingency 15% | ~0.6M – 1.2M | ~20M – 38M | |
| Total, full vision | ~4.7M – 8.9M USD | ~155M – 294M THB |
Phased entry
A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly 1.7M to 2.9M USD (~57M to 95M THB):
- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full metrology deferred
- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
- Galvanics, automated presses, full metrology, and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions
The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for exactly this reason.
What moves the number
- BOI: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see boi.md)
- Buy vs lease on land and building swings roughly 1.0M to 2.1M USD (~34M to 69M THB) of upfront capital, and also moves the launch date by about three quarters — see project-timeline.md
- Biggest uncertainty bands: metrology (partly a choice of ambition), the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the automated presses (single unverified price point), and land
- Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here. Revenue is mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see project-timeline.md). A 10% move in EUR/THB between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in equipment-suppliers.md lists who to ask