Commit Graph
7 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
grabowski 3f33babdaa Plan B re-defined: the launch plant with everything in (~210M THB); front view on the cover
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- Plan B now starts like Plan A with one Duplex system and one Classic,
  but takes none of the six levers: owned solar and battery (with the BOI
  solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor corridor, cassette
  and CD-R, the bought crane and Thai-supplied utilities (user, 17 October
  2026). ~193.8M THB before the reserve, ~209M with it (~150M to 268M),
  ~32M (~18 %) more than Plan A; the second Duplex is a growth step from
  revenue in both (~15.4M THB, estimate).
- total-investment.md "Two plans" re-based (heading and anchor now
  "B at ~210M THB", README and roadmap links updated); revenue-model.md
  operating pictures: same volume and EBITDA as Plan A, depreciation on
  Plan B's capital (operating profit 1.26M USD central, payback ~3.7 yr);
  the extra earns nothing in the modelled table, which the docs say.
- Calculator: Plan B preset = the launch plant with contingency kept out
  (EBITDA 2.07M USD, cash payback year ~4.3, IRR ~21 %); budget card marks
  180M and 180M plus 25 %; preset label "Plan B (~210M, all in)".
- Business plan draft 0.3, both versions rebuilt: every Plan B branch of
  the three content files rewritten; renders regenerated with the
  isometric view turned to the front of the site (road, car park, office,
  corridor facade) for the cover and Figures 8 to 10.
2026-10-17 16:33:18 +07:00
grabowski ffc6cedbca Business plan: isometric calculator views instead of FreeCAD, software section with screenshots
- Cover and section 6.2 now use the isometric plant view of the plant and
  business plan calculator, drawn with each version's own preset: the
  cover (roofs, no labels), Figure 8 the site from above, Figure 9 the
  ground floor cut open, Figure 10 the press hall close up. The FreeCAD
  aerial render, the Mueang Chi site plan and the hall layout sketch are
  no longer in the plan; the captions say the calculator draws the Payap
  scenario model while the 6.2 text and zone table are the Mueang Chi
  hall.
- New section 5.5 "The software: plant overview, factory console and
  artist platform" with six screenshots of the demos: the plant overview
  (simulated SCADA), the factory console press floor and its ERPNext
  link, the artist ordering offer, fan funding and the record passport.
  Simulated data is marked as such; the platform name stays undecided.
- Figures renumbered (budget card 11, cash 12) and named in the
  section 15 source table. Renders in docs/renders/calculator/ and
  docs/renders/demos/; README bullet updated.
2026-10-17 16:06:04 +07:00
grabowski bd357ab03f Business plan draft 0.3 in two versions: Plan A ~180M and Plan B ~225M THB
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- One build makes both documents: plan_variant.py switches the
  plan-specific text (pick / is_a / label); build_plan.py writes
  CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A and -B (docx), export_pdf.py exports both PDFs
  with the table of contents filled in. Draft 0.2 (single launch-plant
  plan with contingency) is removed; it stays in the history.
- Plan A: the launch plant with every machine and six cost levers, ~177M
  THB with the ramp-up reserve, no contingency. Plan B: the second Duplex
  at launch, five presses, ~224M THB on the same basis. Each version reads
  as a complete plan with one table comparing it with the other; the
  216M investor-question text is gone, Pheenix is priced at OMS's
  reference plus 20 %.
- Calculator renders in both documents, each from its own preset: the
  plant at a glance (Figure 4), the budget check (Figure 5) and ten years
  of cash (Figure 6), in docs/renders/calculator/.
- Calculator budget card: the verdict and third KPI now name the tightest
  budget the midpoint fits (Plan A: 3.3M to spare under 180M; Plan B:
  0.8M under 225M) instead of always 225M.
- Fixes: CD replication cross-references point to section 4.10; the
  blended price in section 3.3 and roadmap item 1 is 3.76 to 5.27 USD at
  60 % specials (3.50 to 4.60 at a standard-heavy mix).
2026-10-17 15:42:35 +07:00
grabowski b3e8e4272b Specials share 60 %+: revenue model, calculator and business plan re-based
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User (October 2026): "lets say 60+% special prints" (the plant focuses on
special prints, not mono colours).

- Specials (splatter, marble, colour effects) run only on the Duplex
  systems, so at 60 % the Duplex sets the launch plant's output: ~0.58 /
  0.74 / 0.90M records a year (was 0.71 / 0.84 / 0.97 at ~20 %), the
  Classic at about two thirds load. Full 60/40 hall: ~2.3 to 3.6M (Duplex
  -limited, Classics about half loaded); five-press fleet unchanged. A
  hall balanced by output at 60 % would give Duplex ~70 to 75 % of the
  floor (estimate; noted, not applied).
- Blended price 3.76 / 4.49 / 5.27 USD (standard 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25 plus
  the 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 specials premium on 60 %). Launch operating
  picture: revenue 2.28 / 3.65 / 5.41M USD, EBITDA 0.23 / 1.73 / 3.79M,
  operating profit -0.66 / 1.21 / 3.46M, payback ~3.8 yr central,
  break-even ~0.25M records; adverse needs ~1.1M records to cover
  depreciation. Specials' extra direct cost (coloured compound, purge,
  trim only into black) is not in the cost table yet: flagged as an
  upper bound until compound quotes.
- Calculator default specials share 20 -> 60 % (planning rates keep the
  launch plant balanced at 850k: revenue 4.14M, EBITDA 2.07M, payback
  3.3 yr, cash payback year ~4.8, IRR ~18 %).
- revenue-model.md, scale.md, pressing-line.md, README; business plan
  draft 0.2 rebuilt (sections 1, 4, 9, risks).

Checks: calculator regression 0 fails, no page errors, node --check on
all scripts; PDF 47 pages, table of contents filled; no em dashes added.
2026-10-16 20:45:39 +07:00
grabowski 485b3b630a Plant and business plan calculator: configuration, investment, budget, ten-year cash
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User request (October 2026): an interactive business plan calculator
where the plant configuration is chosen and everything follows. Built
into the fleet calculator (same page and URL, one model):

- Plant configuration card: galvanics in-house or bought stampers (and
  Pheenix estimate vs OMS reference), mastering and cutting in-house or
  outsourced, metrology full or launch tier, cassette and CD-R, solar
  buy / PPA / none, electric or biomass steam, Thai or Chinese utilities,
  crane buy or rent, visitor corridor now or later, ramp-up reserve;
  stamper supply to other plants; disabled-not-hidden controls.
- Investment built from the total-investment blocks (low / mid / high,
  sources and kind badges); boiler and chiller modules sized from the
  fleet and flagged past the four positions; phase 2 building past the
  870 m2 press hall. Default reproduces 160.9 / 226.7 / 292.5M THB.
- Budget card against 180M and 216M THB; "Investor levers" preset gives
  193.6M mid, 203.6 to 213.6M with the reserve.
- Money follows the configuration: outsourced title steps passed through
  at cost (fee split 51.1 / 37.0 / 11.9 %), electric steam energy and
  demand charge, PPA power price, optional cassette/CD-R revenue.
- Ten-year cash view: editable ramp and discount rate, payback, NPV, IRR,
  chart and table; pre-tax, pre-financing sketch.
- Presets: launch plant, investor levers, lean, five-press, full hall.
- Verified headless on Edge: 62 checks, 390 / 1024 / 1440 px, dark and
  light, no overflow, no page errors.

Business plan 9.4 cross-check updated to the calculator's figures
(EBITDA 1.68M, payback 4.1 yr; cash payback year ~5.7, IRR ~13 %);
docx and pdf rebuilt. README and landing entry renamed.
2026-10-16 16:15:22 +07:00
grabowski d42e99389b Business plan draft 0.2: re-based on the launch plant
The investor business plan (docx + pdf) rebuilt for the launch plant
decided in October 2026: one Duplex system and one Classic, Pheenix
galvanics with zero discharge, the Sibert line, a Sillitoe cutting room,
modular steam and cooling (rooms for four), cassette and CD-R; no bridge
stampers, no outsourced cutting; second Duplex as a growth option.

- Part A: executive summary (what changed since 0.1, the numbers, the
  180M / 216M answer, first release marked open), reading guide, two
  price points (ResurRec and Record Industry), anatomy rewritten for
  Sillitoe, Pheenix, Sibert, Duplex + Classic, lead times without bridge
  stampers, new 4.8 artist platform, cassette 4.9, CD 4.10.
- Part B: traceability with ERPNext as system of record, metrology launch
  tier as the investor's choice, QC, efficiency (PEA tariff, utility
  modules, fuel open, Chinese boilers and DIW rules), site (Mueang Chi,
  Payap zoning result), building blocks, safety, BOI and licences with
  galvanics in the first factory licence.
- Part C: launch-plant investment table, the investor's question and
  levers, tranches, currency, operating picture of the launch plant,
  timeline with the metal path on the critical path, commissioning
  sequence and why the whole chain at launch, team, 22 risks, 17 phase 0
  actions, the ask.
- plan_lib: grid column widths so LibreOffice keeps table widths.
- export_pdf.py: LibreOffice UNO export that fills the table of
  contents (47 pages).
- README: total investment, revenue model and business plan bullets.
2026-10-16 16:01:25 +07:00
grabowski 3934dc1dc4 Add investor business plan (draft 0.1) with its Python builder
Leased land instead of purchase, in-house cassette duplication, CD-R
duplication with CD replication shown as a separate investor decision,
Ploy Printing as packaging partner and intended co-investor, and a
dedicated section on traceability, metrology, QC and efficiency.
2026-09-10 10:20:05 +02:00