Commit Graph
5 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
grabowski 9ff5feef11 Solar on every roof, BOI solar correction, open source section
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Solar (user, 17 Oct 2026: "use as much roof space as possible")
- PV on every roof and canopy: ~640 kWp on the Payap scenario plot
  (factory roof ~523, canopies ~54, flat office roof ~65 kWp around the
  AC units); ~300 kWp on the Mueang Chi hall. Calculator: pvKWp 640,
  new pvSelf 85 % (zero export, hourly sketch), PV cost per kWp times the
  array, office-roof PV in the iso view, roofs drawn full.
- 12.8M to 16.6M THB at 20 to 26 THB/W; CSV baseline 34.37M to 56.34M;
  launch plant ~168M / 231M / 294M THB with contingency; Plan B ~216M
  (label ~215M), ~39M above Plan A; Plan A unchanged (it leases the
  array), its solar lever ~17.5M. PV payback ~4.2 to 5.9 years.
- Permits (rooftop solar no factory licence since 28 Dec 2024, ERC
  exemption under 1,000 kVA, PEA zero export) and PPA discounts sourced
  in sustainability.md.

BOI correction
- Announcement 3/2568 (in force 1 July 2025) ended BOI promotion for
  solar installations; only the battery may qualify (12M THB per MW cap).
  Removed the "BOI solar measure" from boi.md, total-investment,
  revenue-model, sustainability, site-candidates and both plan versions;
  Plan B's case for owning the array is the PPA bill it avoids
  (~0.07M USD a year).

Open source (user, 17 Oct 2026)
- digital-factory.md "Open source throughout, and working with other
  plants": everything we run and build is open source on NixOS, our code
  published (licence to decide), vendor firmware the stated exception;
  later the stack and factory-automation services for other pressing
  plants, not in the revenue.
- Business plan section 5.6 plus an executive-summary bullet, reading
  guide and not-modelled mentions; draft 0.3 rebuilt (A 60, B 61 pages),
  renders re-made with the roofs full.
2026-10-17 17:22:57 +07:00
grabowski 3f33babdaa Plan B re-defined: the launch plant with everything in (~210M THB); front view on the cover
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- Plan B now starts like Plan A with one Duplex system and one Classic,
  but takes none of the six levers: owned solar and battery (with the BOI
  solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor corridor, cassette
  and CD-R, the bought crane and Thai-supplied utilities (user, 17 October
  2026). ~193.8M THB before the reserve, ~209M with it (~150M to 268M),
  ~32M (~18 %) more than Plan A; the second Duplex is a growth step from
  revenue in both (~15.4M THB, estimate).
- total-investment.md "Two plans" re-based (heading and anchor now
  "B at ~210M THB", README and roadmap links updated); revenue-model.md
  operating pictures: same volume and EBITDA as Plan A, depreciation on
  Plan B's capital (operating profit 1.26M USD central, payback ~3.7 yr);
  the extra earns nothing in the modelled table, which the docs say.
- Calculator: Plan B preset = the launch plant with contingency kept out
  (EBITDA 2.07M USD, cash payback year ~4.3, IRR ~21 %); budget card marks
  180M and 180M plus 25 %; preset label "Plan B (~210M, all in)".
- Business plan draft 0.3, both versions rebuilt: every Plan B branch of
  the three content files rewritten; renders regenerated with the
  isometric view turned to the front of the site (road, car park, office,
  corridor facade) for the cover and Figures 8 to 10.
2026-10-17 16:33:18 +07:00
grabowski bd357ab03f Business plan draft 0.3 in two versions: Plan A ~180M and Plan B ~225M THB
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- One build makes both documents: plan_variant.py switches the
  plan-specific text (pick / is_a / label); build_plan.py writes
  CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A and -B (docx), export_pdf.py exports both PDFs
  with the table of contents filled in. Draft 0.2 (single launch-plant
  plan with contingency) is removed; it stays in the history.
- Plan A: the launch plant with every machine and six cost levers, ~177M
  THB with the ramp-up reserve, no contingency. Plan B: the second Duplex
  at launch, five presses, ~224M THB on the same basis. Each version reads
  as a complete plan with one table comparing it with the other; the
  216M investor-question text is gone, Pheenix is priced at OMS's
  reference plus 20 %.
- Calculator renders in both documents, each from its own preset: the
  plant at a glance (Figure 4), the budget check (Figure 5) and ten years
  of cash (Figure 6), in docs/renders/calculator/.
- Calculator budget card: the verdict and third KPI now name the tightest
  budget the midpoint fits (Plan A: 3.3M to spare under 180M; Plan B:
  0.8M under 225M) instead of always 225M.
- Fixes: CD replication cross-references point to section 4.10; the
  blended price in section 3.3 and roadmap item 1 is 3.76 to 5.27 USD at
  60 % specials (3.50 to 4.60 at a standard-heavy mix).
2026-10-17 15:42:35 +07:00
grabowski d42e99389b Business plan draft 0.2: re-based on the launch plant
The investor business plan (docx + pdf) rebuilt for the launch plant
decided in October 2026: one Duplex system and one Classic, Pheenix
galvanics with zero discharge, the Sibert line, a Sillitoe cutting room,
modular steam and cooling (rooms for four), cassette and CD-R; no bridge
stampers, no outsourced cutting; second Duplex as a growth option.

- Part A: executive summary (what changed since 0.1, the numbers, the
  180M / 216M answer, first release marked open), reading guide, two
  price points (ResurRec and Record Industry), anatomy rewritten for
  Sillitoe, Pheenix, Sibert, Duplex + Classic, lead times without bridge
  stampers, new 4.8 artist platform, cassette 4.9, CD 4.10.
- Part B: traceability with ERPNext as system of record, metrology launch
  tier as the investor's choice, QC, efficiency (PEA tariff, utility
  modules, fuel open, Chinese boilers and DIW rules), site (Mueang Chi,
  Payap zoning result), building blocks, safety, BOI and licences with
  galvanics in the first factory licence.
- Part C: launch-plant investment table, the investor's question and
  levers, tranches, currency, operating picture of the launch plant,
  timeline with the metal path on the critical path, commissioning
  sequence and why the whole chain at launch, team, 22 risks, 17 phase 0
  actions, the ask.
- plan_lib: grid column widths so LibreOffice keeps table widths.
- export_pdf.py: LibreOffice UNO export that fills the table of
  contents (47 pages).
- README: total investment, revenue model and business plan bullets.
2026-10-16 16:01:25 +07:00
grabowski 3934dc1dc4 Add investor business plan (draft 0.1) with its Python builder
Leased land instead of purchase, in-house cassette duplication, CD-R
duplication with CD replication shown as a separate investor decision,
Ploy Printing as packaging partner and intended co-investor, and a
dedicated section on traceability, metrology, QC and efficiency.
2026-09-10 10:20:05 +02:00