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Two plans for the investor: Plan A ~180M, Plan B ~225M THB; Pheenix at OMS +20 %
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User (October 2026): price the Pheenix galvanics line at OMS's reference
plus 20 %, and work on a new business plan in two versions, one at
roughly 180M THB and one at +25 %; the plans do not include contingency;
Plan A keeps every machine and uses cost levers only.

- total-investment.md: Pheenix block 324k to 445k USD (OMS 4-cell wet
  room with know-how transfer, EUR 234k to 321k, plus 20 %; was 320k to
  650k estimate); launch plant now ~161M to 285M THB with contingency,
  midpoint ~223M. New section "Two plans": Plan A = launch plant with
  solar PPA, metrology launch tier, corridor later, cassette and CD-R
  later, rented crane, Chinese boilers and compressor: subtotal ~161.7M
  + ramp-up reserve 10 to 20M = ~177M THB (127M to 226M). Plan B = second
  Duplex at launch (five presses), everything in: subtotal ~209.2M +
  reserve = ~224M THB (162M to 286M). Contingency listed as not in
  either price (~24M / ~31M at 15 %). The 180M / 216M answer marked
  superseded.
- revenue-model.md: operating pictures of both plans at 60 % specials.
  Plan A central EBITDA 1.73M USD, operating profit 1.34M, payback ~3.1
  yr on the plan price; adverse loses money. Plan B (1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5M
  records) central EBITDA 3.14M, operating profit 2.63M, payback ~2.2 yr;
  adverse just covers depreciation; needs ~1.25M records sold.
- Calculator: Pheenix price basis "OMS +20 %" and "OMS directly"; new
  contingency switch (in the total / shown separately); presets Plan A
  and Plan B (replace "investor levers" and "five-press"); budget card
  against 180M and 225M.
- galvanics.md price note, README, roadmap.

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docs/finance/total-investment.md
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@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
| Phase 0: BOI consultant, legal and lease work, soil test, re-quotes | 40k – 80k | 1.3M – 2.6M | estimate |
| Newbilt Duplex system (two HRP 12, EX 50 + EX 35, trimmer, label oven, shrink wrapper, grinder, label punch) | 350k – 370k | 11.6M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 for the Single 2.1 plus the quoted second press and extruder ~USD 115k; expired, re-quote |
| Newbilt Classic | 290k – 460k | 9.6M – 15.2M | placeholder (the old AD12 band per press); **no Newbilt price on file** |
| Pheenix galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, PDPU, PMPB) | 320k – 650k | 10.6M – 21.4M | estimate; **no Pheenix price on file**; OMS's reference prices for a 4-cell wet room (EUR 224k to 311k, ~USD 259k to 359k) sit at the low end |
| Pheenix galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, PDPU, PMPB) | 324k – 445k | 10.7M – 14.7M | **OMS's reference plus 20 %** (user, October 2026): OMS's 4-cell wet room with the know-how transfer, EUR 234k to 321k (~USD 270k to 371k, [galvanics](../equipment/galvanics.md#oms-introduction-letter-9-october-2026)), as the price basis for the Pheenix line; **no Pheenix price on file** (was 320k to 650k, estimate) |
| Galvanics water: ZLD evaporator and DI water | 97k – 258k | 3.2M – 8.5M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) rows, now launch scope |
| Water-treatment building next to galvanics (~12 × 10 m, proposed) | 52k – 87k | 1.7M – 2.9M | estimate at the building rate below |
| Sibert VSF, VSP, VSC | 250k | 8.3M | Sibert's budget confirmation, 5 October 2026; its time, spares, shipping and travel in the freight and working-capital lines |
@@ -61,9 +61,9 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
| Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication | 55k – 190k | 1.8M – 6.3M | estimate, business plan sections 4.8 and 4.9 |
| Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its quoted 5 days) | 150k – 300k | 5.0M – 9.9M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent | 135k – 290k | 4.5M – 9.6M | estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase |
| Subtotal | ~4.24M – 7.71M | ~140M – 254M | |
| Contingency 15 % | ~0.64M – 1.16M | ~21M – 38M | |
| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.9M – 8.9M USD** | **~161M – 292M THB** | midpoint ~6.9M USD, ~227M THB |
| Subtotal | ~4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M | midpoint ~5.87M USD, ~194M THB |
| Contingency 15 % | ~0.64M – 1.13M | ~21M – 37M | |
| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.9M – 8.6M USD** | **~161M – 285M THB** | midpoint ~6.76M USD, ~223M THB |
Not in the total: a **reserve for the ramp-up** (staff hired before first
revenue, overheads until volume covers them; ~10M to 20M THB, estimate),
@@ -78,6 +78,11 @@ import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).
### The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)
*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)
below. Written against the earlier Pheenix estimate (USD 320k to 650k,
total ~227M THB at the midpoint); its galvanics lever is now the base
price.*
The project's investor asked whether the plant can be built for **180M
THB (~5.45M USD), possibly up to 20 % more (216M THB, ~6.55M USD)**.
@@ -126,6 +131,72 @@ building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology
stack. Until they are in, quote **~216M THB** to the investor as the
target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~225M THB (October 2026)
Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
- **Plan A, ~180M THB**: the launch plant with every machine decided
above (one Duplex system, one Classic, galvanics, Sibert, the cutting
room), brought down with six cost levers.
- **Plan B, ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %)**: the second Duplex system at
launch, so five presses, with everything in.
Both are priced **without contingency** (user decision) and **with the
ramp-up reserve**, because the reserve is cash the investor puts in
before volume carries the plant. Pheenix galvanics is priced at OMS's
reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
| Plan A: launch plant with six levers | Saves | Subtotal after it |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~193.8M THB (~5.87M USD) |
| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~10.7M | ~183.1M |
| Metrology launch tier: XRF, inline vision and audio station at launch; laser confocal and wide-area profiler (USD 180k to 350k) bought from revenue | ~8.8M | ~174.4M |
| Visitor corridor built later; no public tours at first | ~3.6M | ~170.8M |
| Cassette and CD-R duplication later | ~4.0M | ~166.8M |
| Crane rented for the installations; frame, runway and machine door stay crane-ready | ~3.2M | ~163.6M |
| Boilers and compressor through the Chinese route ([Chinese suppliers](../suppliers/china-utilities.md)) | ~1.9M | **~161.7M (~4.90M USD)** |
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan A** | | **~177M THB (~5.35M USD)**, ~127M to 226M from the low to the high end of every block |
| Plan B: five presses, everything in | USD | THB, midpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~193.8M |
| Second Duplex system: two HRP 12, EX 50 and EX 35 (calculator basis: two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35; no EX 35 price on file) | 230k – 300k | +8.7M |
| Third chiller module, CH-3 (250 kW; the two boiler modules carry 750 to 900 kg/h) | 48k – 78k | +2.1M |
| Freight and installation for the extra machinery | 24k – 48k | +1.2M |
| Working capital for ~1.25M records a year instead of 0.85M | 64k – 139k | +3.4M |
| Subtotal | **4.61M – 8.07M** | **~209.2M (~6.34M USD)** |
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan B** | | **~224M THB (~6.79M USD)**, ~162M to 286M from the low to the high end of every block |
Plan B keeps what Plan A gives up: owned solar and battery (and with
them the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor
corridor, the bought crane, cassette and CD-R, Thai-supplied utilities.
Its five presses make ~1.0 to 1.5 million records a year at the planned
60 % specials (the [scale](../scale.md#production-capacity) basis; not
Duplex-limited), against ~0.58 to 0.90 million for Plan A's three; the
operating pictures of both are in the
[revenue model](revenue-model.md#operating-pictures-of-plan-a-and-plan-b-october-2026).
The [plant and business plan calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) has
both as presets.
**Not in either plan price:**
- **Contingency.** The blocks are budgetary (plus or minus 30 to 50 % on
the estimates, top of this page), so the plans carry no buffer for
quotes landing high. At this page's 15 % that would be ~24M THB on
Plan A and ~31M on Plan B at the midpoint.
- The central hydraulic plant (not costed yet), the archive's mobile
shelving (to quote), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves,
and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).
**What decides between them:** demand. Plan B needs ~1.25 million records
sold a year in its central case, about 70 % more than Plan A's 0.74
million, three fifths of them special editions; market validation
(roadmap item 1) is the evidence for that. Plan A keeps the second Duplex
as a growth step from revenue, with its floor, utility positions and
ring-main tees reserved.
## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)
The five-press full vision below is superseded by the launch plant above.