Two plans for the investor: Plan A ~180M, Plan B ~225M THB; Pheenix at OMS +20 %
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User (October 2026): price the Pheenix galvanics line at OMS's reference plus 20 %, and work on a new business plan in two versions, one at roughly 180M THB and one at +25 %; the plans do not include contingency; Plan A keeps every machine and uses cost levers only. - total-investment.md: Pheenix block 324k to 445k USD (OMS 4-cell wet room with know-how transfer, EUR 234k to 321k, plus 20 %; was 320k to 650k estimate); launch plant now ~161M to 285M THB with contingency, midpoint ~223M. New section "Two plans": Plan A = launch plant with solar PPA, metrology launch tier, corridor later, cassette and CD-R later, rented crane, Chinese boilers and compressor: subtotal ~161.7M + ramp-up reserve 10 to 20M = ~177M THB (127M to 226M). Plan B = second Duplex at launch (five presses), everything in: subtotal ~209.2M + reserve = ~224M THB (162M to 286M). Contingency listed as not in either price (~24M / ~31M at 15 %). The 180M / 216M answer marked superseded. - revenue-model.md: operating pictures of both plans at 60 % specials. Plan A central EBITDA 1.73M USD, operating profit 1.34M, payback ~3.1 yr on the plan price; adverse loses money. Plan B (1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5M records) central EBITDA 3.14M, operating profit 2.63M, payback ~2.2 yr; adverse just covers depreciation; needs ~1.25M records sold. - Calculator: Pheenix price basis "OMS +20 %" and "OMS directly"; new contingency switch (in the total / shown separately); presets Plan A and Plan B (replace "investor levers" and "five-press"); budget card against 180M and 225M. - galvanics.md price note, README, roadmap. Checks: calculator regression updated and passing (0 fails, no page errors), node --check on all scripts, site build (no dead links), no em dashes added.
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@@ -666,6 +666,78 @@ What it says:
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investment would add its power price to the energy line instead of
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capital.
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## Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)
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The business plan comes in two versions
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([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)):
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**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers, three
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presses) and **Plan B** (~224M THB, the second Duplex at launch, five
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presses), both priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve.
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Same method and cases as above, at the planned 60 % specials (estimates):
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- **Plan A** runs the launch plant, so volume, price, direct cost, title
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services and overheads are those of the table above; only the
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depreciation follows its lower capital: the high end of Plan A's blocks
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(6.25M USD) over 10 years, the midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low
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end (3.56M USD) over 15. The solar PPA adds its power price to the
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energy line (~0.03M USD a year in the calculator), not shown here.
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- **Plan B**'s five presses are not Duplex-limited at 60 % specials: the
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four semi-automatic presses (240 to 320 records an hour) carry the
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specials and the Classic the rest, so volume is the five-press band,
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**1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5M** records. Direct cost per record is the five-press
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table's 2.58 / 1.94 / 1.30 USD (the same payroll over more records);
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title services 300 / 375 / 400 titles at 580 / 1,155 / 1,730 USD and 60
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/ 65 / 70 % contribution (the five-press table's 0.10 / 0.28 / 0.48M);
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depreciation on Plan B's blocks: 8.07M USD over 10 years, 6.34M over
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12.5, 4.61M over 15.
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- **Payback** is counted on the whole plan price including the ramp-up
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reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.92M / 6.79M /
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8.67M USD from the low to the high end).
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| USD/yr | A adverse | A central | A favourable | B adverse | B central | B favourable |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Records | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M | 1.0M | 1.25M | 1.5M |
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| Blended price (60 % specials) | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 |
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| Direct cost | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 | 2.58 | 1.94 | 1.30 |
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| Pressing contribution | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M | 1.18M | 3.19M | 5.96M |
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| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M | 0.10M | 0.28M | 0.48M |
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| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
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| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** | **0.83M** | **3.14M** | **6.24M** |
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| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.81M | 0.51M | 0.31M |
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| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **0.02M** | **2.63M** | **5.93M** |
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| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 3.93M (~130M THB) | 6.05M (~200M THB) | 8.60M (~284M THB) |
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| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~10.5 yr | ~2.2 yr (1.6 to 2.8) | ~0.8 yr |
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What it says:
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- **Plan A** breaks even on operating profit at **~0.2 million records a
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year**; its adverse corner still loses money, because it would need
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~0.9 million records to cover depreciation and the three presses make
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0.58 million at that rate.
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- **Plan B** breaks even at ~0.22 million records and its adverse corner
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just covers depreciation (~1.0 million records needed, 1.0 million
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made): more presses spread the same crews, overheads and title services
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over more records. Its central EBITDA is ~1.8 times Plan A's for ~27 %
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more money.
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- **But Plan B only earns this if the records sell.** Its central case
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needs ~1.25 million records a year, ~0.75 million of them special
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editions, against 0.74 million for Plan A; nothing in the market data
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so far shows that demand (roadmap item 1). The ramp to that volume is
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longer, and the ramp-up reserve (10M to 20M THB) is the same estimate
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as for Plan A.
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- **The caveats above hold for both:** central EBITDA margins of ~47 %
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(A) and ~52 % (B) are far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn,
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the cost of specials is not in the direct cost yet, and neither plan
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carries a contingency. Treat the adverse columns as the honest ones.
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The [calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) presets, at the team's
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planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex system) and its own cost
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build-up, give: **Plan A** at 850k records EBITDA 2.04M USD, payback 2.4
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years on the investment, cash payback in year ~3.9 and ~25 % IRR over ten
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years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** at 1.25M records EBITDA
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3.25M USD, payback 2.0 years, cash payback in year ~3.3 and ~32 % IRR
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(pre-tax, pre-financing, estimates).
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## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
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The fleet this table describes (two Duplex systems and a Classic) is now
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