Two plans for the investor: Plan A ~180M, Plan B ~225M THB; Pheenix at OMS +20 %
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User (October 2026): price the Pheenix galvanics line at OMS's reference
plus 20 %, and work on a new business plan in two versions, one at
roughly 180M THB and one at +25 %; the plans do not include contingency;
Plan A keeps every machine and uses cost levers only.

- total-investment.md: Pheenix block 324k to 445k USD (OMS 4-cell wet
  room with know-how transfer, EUR 234k to 321k, plus 20 %; was 320k to
  650k estimate); launch plant now ~161M to 285M THB with contingency,
  midpoint ~223M. New section "Two plans": Plan A = launch plant with
  solar PPA, metrology launch tier, corridor later, cassette and CD-R
  later, rented crane, Chinese boilers and compressor: subtotal ~161.7M
  + ramp-up reserve 10 to 20M = ~177M THB (127M to 226M). Plan B = second
  Duplex at launch (five presses), everything in: subtotal ~209.2M +
  reserve = ~224M THB (162M to 286M). Contingency listed as not in
  either price (~24M / ~31M at 15 %). The 180M / 216M answer marked
  superseded.
- revenue-model.md: operating pictures of both plans at 60 % specials.
  Plan A central EBITDA 1.73M USD, operating profit 1.34M, payback ~3.1
  yr on the plan price; adverse loses money. Plan B (1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5M
  records) central EBITDA 3.14M, operating profit 2.63M, payback ~2.2 yr;
  adverse just covers depreciation; needs ~1.25M records sold.
- Calculator: Pheenix price basis "OMS +20 %" and "OMS directly"; new
  contingency switch (in the total / shown separately); presets Plan A
  and Plan B (replace "investor levers" and "five-press"); budget card
  against 180M and 225M.
- galvanics.md price note, README, roadmap.

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@@ -666,6 +666,78 @@ What it says:
investment would add its power price to the energy line instead of
capital.
## Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)
The business plan comes in two versions
([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)):
**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers, three
presses) and **Plan B** (~224M THB, the second Duplex at launch, five
presses), both priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve.
Same method and cases as above, at the planned 60 % specials (estimates):
- **Plan A** runs the launch plant, so volume, price, direct cost, title
services and overheads are those of the table above; only the
depreciation follows its lower capital: the high end of Plan A's blocks
(6.25M USD) over 10 years, the midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low
end (3.56M USD) over 15. The solar PPA adds its power price to the
energy line (~0.03M USD a year in the calculator), not shown here.
- **Plan B**'s five presses are not Duplex-limited at 60 % specials: the
four semi-automatic presses (240 to 320 records an hour) carry the
specials and the Classic the rest, so volume is the five-press band,
**1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5M** records. Direct cost per record is the five-press
table's 2.58 / 1.94 / 1.30 USD (the same payroll over more records);
title services 300 / 375 / 400 titles at 580 / 1,155 / 1,730 USD and 60
/ 65 / 70 % contribution (the five-press table's 0.10 / 0.28 / 0.48M);
depreciation on Plan B's blocks: 8.07M USD over 10 years, 6.34M over
12.5, 4.61M over 15.
- **Payback** is counted on the whole plan price including the ramp-up
reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.92M / 6.79M /
8.67M USD from the low to the high end).
| USD/yr | A adverse | A central | A favourable | B adverse | B central | B favourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Records | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M | 1.0M | 1.25M | 1.5M |
| Blended price (60 % specials) | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 |
| Direct cost | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 | 2.58 | 1.94 | 1.30 |
| Pressing contribution | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M | 1.18M | 3.19M | 5.96M |
| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M | 0.10M | 0.28M | 0.48M |
| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** | **0.83M** | **3.14M** | **6.24M** |
| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.81M | 0.51M | 0.31M |
| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **0.02M** | **2.63M** | **5.93M** |
| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 3.93M (~130M THB) | 6.05M (~200M THB) | 8.60M (~284M THB) |
| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~10.5 yr | ~2.2 yr (1.6 to 2.8) | ~0.8 yr |
What it says:
- **Plan A** breaks even on operating profit at **~0.2 million records a
year**; its adverse corner still loses money, because it would need
~0.9 million records to cover depreciation and the three presses make
0.58 million at that rate.
- **Plan B** breaks even at ~0.22 million records and its adverse corner
just covers depreciation (~1.0 million records needed, 1.0 million
made): more presses spread the same crews, overheads and title services
over more records. Its central EBITDA is ~1.8 times Plan A's for ~27 %
more money.
- **But Plan B only earns this if the records sell.** Its central case
needs ~1.25 million records a year, ~0.75 million of them special
editions, against 0.74 million for Plan A; nothing in the market data
so far shows that demand (roadmap item 1). The ramp to that volume is
longer, and the ramp-up reserve (10M to 20M THB) is the same estimate
as for Plan A.
- **The caveats above hold for both:** central EBITDA margins of ~47 %
(A) and ~52 % (B) are far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn,
the cost of specials is not in the direct cost yet, and neither plan
carries a contingency. Treat the adverse columns as the honest ones.
The [calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) presets, at the team's
planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex system) and its own cost
build-up, give: **Plan A** at 850k records EBITDA 2.04M USD, payback 2.4
years on the investment, cash payback in year ~3.9 and ~25 % IRR over ten
years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** at 1.25M records EBITDA
3.25M USD, payback 2.0 years, cash payback in year ~3.3 and ~32 % IRR
(pre-tax, pre-financing, estimates).
## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
The fleet this table describes (two Duplex systems and a Classic) is now