Two plans for the investor: Plan A ~180M, Plan B ~225M THB; Pheenix at OMS +20 %

User (October 2026): price the Pheenix galvanics line at OMS's reference
plus 20 %, and work on a new business plan in two versions, one at
roughly 180M THB and one at +25 %; the plans do not include contingency;
Plan A keeps every machine and uses cost levers only.

- total-investment.md: Pheenix block 324k to 445k USD (OMS 4-cell wet
  room with know-how transfer, EUR 234k to 321k, plus 20 %; was 320k to
  650k estimate); launch plant now ~161M to 285M THB with contingency,
  midpoint ~223M. New section "Two plans": Plan A = launch plant with
  solar PPA, metrology launch tier, corridor later, cassette and CD-R
  later, rented crane, Chinese boilers and compressor: subtotal ~161.7M
  + ramp-up reserve 10 to 20M = ~177M THB (127M to 226M). Plan B = second
  Duplex at launch (five presses), everything in: subtotal ~209.2M +
  reserve = ~224M THB (162M to 286M). Contingency listed as not in
  either price (~24M / ~31M at 15 %). The 180M / 216M answer marked
  superseded.
- revenue-model.md: operating pictures of both plans at 60 % specials.
  Plan A central EBITDA 1.73M USD, operating profit 1.34M, payback ~3.1
  yr on the plan price; adverse loses money. Plan B (1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5M
  records) central EBITDA 3.14M, operating profit 2.63M, payback ~2.2 yr;
  adverse just covers depreciation; needs ~1.25M records sold.
- Calculator: Pheenix price basis "OMS +20 %" and "OMS directly"; new
  contingency switch (in the total / shown separately); presets Plan A
  and Plan B (replace "investor levers" and "five-press"); budget card
  against 180M and 225M.
- galvanics.md price note, README, roadmap.

Checks: calculator regression updated and passing (0 fails, no page
errors), node --check on all scripts, site build (no dead links), no em
dashes added.

docs/finance/revenue-model.md

@@ -666,6 +666,78 @@ What it says:
   investment would add its power price to the energy line instead of
   capital.
 
+## Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)
+
+The business plan comes in two versions
+([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)):
+**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers, three
+presses) and **Plan B** (~224M THB, the second Duplex at launch, five
+presses), both priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve.
+Same method and cases as above, at the planned 60 % specials (estimates):
+
+- **Plan A** runs the launch plant, so volume, price, direct cost, title
+  services and overheads are those of the table above; only the
+  depreciation follows its lower capital: the high end of Plan A's blocks
+  (6.25M USD) over 10 years, the midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low
+  end (3.56M USD) over 15. The solar PPA adds its power price to the
+  energy line (~0.03M USD a year in the calculator), not shown here.
+- **Plan B**'s five presses are not Duplex-limited at 60 % specials: the
+  four semi-automatic presses (240 to 320 records an hour) carry the
+  specials and the Classic the rest, so volume is the five-press band,
+  **1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5M** records. Direct cost per record is the five-press
+  table's 2.58 / 1.94 / 1.30 USD (the same payroll over more records);
+  title services 300 / 375 / 400 titles at 580 / 1,155 / 1,730 USD and 60
+  / 65 / 70 % contribution (the five-press table's 0.10 / 0.28 / 0.48M);
+  depreciation on Plan B's blocks: 8.07M USD over 10 years, 6.34M over
+  12.5, 4.61M over 15.
+- **Payback** is counted on the whole plan price including the ramp-up
+  reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.92M / 6.79M /
+  8.67M USD from the low to the high end).
+
+| USD/yr | A adverse | A central | A favourable | B adverse | B central | B favourable |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| Records | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M | 1.0M | 1.25M | 1.5M |
+| Blended price (60 % specials) | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 |
+| Direct cost | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 | 2.58 | 1.94 | 1.30 |
+| Pressing contribution | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M | 1.18M | 3.19M | 5.96M |
+| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M | 0.10M | 0.28M | 0.48M |
+| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
+| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** | **0.83M** | **3.14M** | **6.24M** |
+| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.81M | 0.51M | 0.31M |
+| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **0.02M** | **2.63M** | **5.93M** |
+| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 3.93M (~130M THB) | 6.05M (~200M THB) | 8.60M (~284M THB) |
+| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~10.5 yr | ~2.2 yr (1.6 to 2.8) | ~0.8 yr |
+
+What it says:
+
+- **Plan A** breaks even on operating profit at **~0.2 million records a
+  year**; its adverse corner still loses money, because it would need
+  ~0.9 million records to cover depreciation and the three presses make
+  0.58 million at that rate.
+- **Plan B** breaks even at ~0.22 million records and its adverse corner
+  just covers depreciation (~1.0 million records needed, 1.0 million
+  made): more presses spread the same crews, overheads and title services
+  over more records. Its central EBITDA is ~1.8 times Plan A's for ~27 %
+  more money.
+- **But Plan B only earns this if the records sell.** Its central case
+  needs ~1.25 million records a year, ~0.75 million of them special
+  editions, against 0.74 million for Plan A; nothing in the market data
+  so far shows that demand (roadmap item 1). The ramp to that volume is
+  longer, and the ramp-up reserve (10M to 20M THB) is the same estimate
+  as for Plan A.
+- **The caveats above hold for both:** central EBITDA margins of ~47 %
+  (A) and ~52 % (B) are far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn,
+  the cost of specials is not in the direct cost yet, and neither plan
+  carries a contingency. Treat the adverse columns as the honest ones.
+
+The [calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) presets, at the team's
+planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex system) and its own cost
+build-up, give: **Plan A** at 850k records EBITDA 2.04M USD, payback 2.4
+years on the investment, cash payback in year ~3.9 and ~25 % IRR over ten
+years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** at 1.25M records EBITDA
+3.25M USD, payback 2.0 years, cash payback in year ~3.3 and ~32 % IRR
+(pre-tax, pre-financing, estimates).
+
 ## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
 
 The fleet this table describes (two Duplex systems and a Classic) is now

docs/finance/total-investment.md

@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
 | Phase 0: BOI consultant, legal and lease work, soil test, re-quotes | 40k – 80k | 1.3M – 2.6M | estimate |
 | Newbilt Duplex system (two HRP 12, EX 50 + EX 35, trimmer, label oven, shrink wrapper, grinder, label punch) | 350k – 370k | 11.6M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 for the Single 2.1 plus the quoted second press and extruder ~USD 115k; expired, re-quote |
 | Newbilt Classic | 290k – 460k | 9.6M – 15.2M | placeholder (the old AD12 band per press); **no Newbilt price on file** |
-| Pheenix galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, PDPU, PMPB) | 320k – 650k | 10.6M – 21.4M | estimate; **no Pheenix price on file**; OMS's reference prices for a 4-cell wet room (EUR 224k to 311k, ~USD 259k to 359k) sit at the low end |
+| Pheenix galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, PDPU, PMPB) | 324k – 445k | 10.7M – 14.7M | **OMS's reference plus 20 %** (user, October 2026): OMS's 4-cell wet room with the know-how transfer, EUR 234k to 321k (~USD 270k to 371k, [galvanics](../equipment/galvanics.md#oms-introduction-letter-9-october-2026)), as the price basis for the Pheenix line; **no Pheenix price on file** (was 320k to 650k, estimate) |
 | Galvanics water: ZLD evaporator and DI water | 97k – 258k | 3.2M – 8.5M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) rows, now launch scope |
 | Water-treatment building next to galvanics (~12 × 10 m, proposed) | 52k – 87k | 1.7M – 2.9M | estimate at the building rate below |
 | Sibert VSF, VSP, VSC | 250k | 8.3M | Sibert's budget confirmation, 5 October 2026; its time, spares, shipping and travel in the freight and working-capital lines |
@@ -61,9 +61,9 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
 | Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication | 55k – 190k | 1.8M – 6.3M | estimate, business plan sections 4.8 and 4.9 |
 | Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its quoted 5 days) | 150k – 300k | 5.0M – 9.9M | estimate |
 | Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent | 135k – 290k | 4.5M – 9.6M | estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase |
-| Subtotal | ~4.24M – 7.71M | ~140M – 254M | |
-| Contingency 15 % | ~0.64M – 1.16M | ~21M – 38M | |
-| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.9M – 8.9M USD** | **~161M – 292M THB** | midpoint ~6.9M USD, ~227M THB |
+| Subtotal | ~4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M | midpoint ~5.87M USD, ~194M THB |
+| Contingency 15 % | ~0.64M – 1.13M | ~21M – 37M | |
+| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.9M – 8.6M USD** | **~161M – 285M THB** | midpoint ~6.76M USD, ~223M THB |
 
 Not in the total: a **reserve for the ramp-up** (staff hired before first
 revenue, overheads until volume covers them; ~10M to 20M THB, estimate),
@@ -78,6 +78,11 @@ import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).
 
 ### The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)
 
+*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)
+below. Written against the earlier Pheenix estimate (USD 320k to 650k,
+total ~227M THB at the midpoint); its galvanics lever is now the base
+price.*
+
 The project's investor asked whether the plant can be built for **180M
 THB (~5.45M USD), possibly up to 20 % more (216M THB, ~6.55M USD)**.
 
@@ -126,6 +131,72 @@ building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology
 stack. Until they are in, quote **~216M THB** to the investor as the
 target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
 
+## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~225M THB (October 2026)
+
+Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
+versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
+
+- **Plan A, ~180M THB**: the launch plant with every machine decided
+  above (one Duplex system, one Classic, galvanics, Sibert, the cutting
+  room), brought down with six cost levers.
+- **Plan B, ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %)**: the second Duplex system at
+  launch, so five presses, with everything in.
+
+Both are priced **without contingency** (user decision) and **with the
+ramp-up reserve**, because the reserve is cash the investor puts in
+before volume carries the plant. Pheenix galvanics is priced at OMS's
+reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
+
+| Plan A: launch plant with six levers | Saves | Subtotal after it |
+|---|---|---|
+| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~193.8M THB (~5.87M USD) |
+| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~10.7M | ~183.1M |
+| Metrology launch tier: XRF, inline vision and audio station at launch; laser confocal and wide-area profiler (USD 180k to 350k) bought from revenue | ~8.8M | ~174.4M |
+| Visitor corridor built later; no public tours at first | ~3.6M | ~170.8M |
+| Cassette and CD-R duplication later | ~4.0M | ~166.8M |
+| Crane rented for the installations; frame, runway and machine door stay crane-ready | ~3.2M | ~163.6M |
+| Boilers and compressor through the Chinese route ([Chinese suppliers](../suppliers/china-utilities.md)) | ~1.9M | **~161.7M (~4.90M USD)** |
+| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
+| **Plan A** | | **~177M THB (~5.35M USD)**, ~127M to 226M from the low to the high end of every block |
+
+| Plan B: five presses, everything in | USD | THB, midpoint |
+|---|---|---|
+| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~193.8M |
+| Second Duplex system: two HRP 12, EX 50 and EX 35 (calculator basis: two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35; no EX 35 price on file) | 230k – 300k | +8.7M |
+| Third chiller module, CH-3 (250 kW; the two boiler modules carry 750 to 900 kg/h) | 48k – 78k | +2.1M |
+| Freight and installation for the extra machinery | 24k – 48k | +1.2M |
+| Working capital for ~1.25M records a year instead of 0.85M | 64k – 139k | +3.4M |
+| Subtotal | **4.61M – 8.07M** | **~209.2M (~6.34M USD)** |
+| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
+| **Plan B** | | **~224M THB (~6.79M USD)**, ~162M to 286M from the low to the high end of every block |
+
+Plan B keeps what Plan A gives up: owned solar and battery (and with
+them the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor
+corridor, the bought crane, cassette and CD-R, Thai-supplied utilities.
+Its five presses make ~1.0 to 1.5 million records a year at the planned
+60 % specials (the [scale](../scale.md#production-capacity) basis; not
+Duplex-limited), against ~0.58 to 0.90 million for Plan A's three; the
+operating pictures of both are in the
+[revenue model](revenue-model.md#operating-pictures-of-plan-a-and-plan-b-october-2026).
+The [plant and business plan calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) has
+both as presets.
+
+**Not in either plan price:**
+- **Contingency.** The blocks are budgetary (plus or minus 30 to 50 % on
+  the estimates, top of this page), so the plans carry no buffer for
+  quotes landing high. At this page's 15 % that would be ~24M THB on
+  Plan A and ~31M on Plan B at the midpoint.
+- The central hydraulic plant (not costed yet), the archive's mobile
+  shelving (to quote), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves,
+  and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).
+
+**What decides between them:** demand. Plan B needs ~1.25 million records
+sold a year in its central case, about 70 % more than Plan A's 0.74
+million, three fifths of them special editions; market validation
+(roadmap item 1) is the evidence for that. Plan A keeps the second Duplex
+as a growth step from revenue, with its floor, utility positions and
+ring-main tees reserved.
+
 ## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)
 
 The five-press full vision below is superseded by the launch plant above.