Own catalogue: sales map, demand model and market advisor (plan)

New docs/catalogue-intelligence.md for Alexander's idea of a catalogue the plant presses for itself. Why (idle Classic hours ~60k to 160k records a year at 60 % specials on the doc basis; two-week represses from the metal archive; Thai catalogue sells in Japan, EM Records, ZudRangMa), scope (Poy Records as seed; customers' data and press dates protected), data sources with access terms (Bandcamp ship-to fields, distributor sell-through clauses, opt-in record passport registrations, Spotify for Artists, Discogs CC0 dumps; Discogs API marketplace and want data restricted), ERPNext touchpoints (Licence, Channel Sales Report, Catalogue Recommendation, geocoded addresses, CRM), PDPA rules for the map, dashboard views on an open-source map stack, a staged demand model with a stocking rule for run size, a propose-only advisor on an open-weights model, phasing, cost estimates, risks and open decisions. Backlinks: README (planning documents, layout), roadmap item 28, digital-factory tool rule, artist-platform repress pre-orders, production-timeline repress, revenue-model ResurRec Japan.
2026-10-27 09:28:51 +07:00
1 parent 793ea02c22
commit d36a6fdd02
@@ -219,6 +219,12 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
  (for artists, labels and any other customer), and optionally launch a
  fan-funded campaign that the plant presses and ships to each fan once
  enough have pre-ordered, with refunds if not
 - [Own catalogue](docs/catalogue-intelligence.md): the idea of a catalogue
  the plant presses for itself (Poy Records as the seed), with a
  catalogue dashboard, a map of where the records sell, a demand model
  that says what to repress and how many, and an advisor agent for
  market opportunities, all on ERPNext and the open-source fleet; filler
  for idle press time, not in the business plan
 - [Order a record](docs/order.html): the order tool as a step-by-step
  configurator after the Mobineko pattern (step rail, choices, a large live
  record picture, running price and ship date, a "how to pay" step with
@@ -408,6 +414,7 @@ docs/
 ├── artist-platform.md     Upload, price calculator, fan-funded pressing
 ├── biomass.md             Biomass fuel strategy and the 60 rai coppice idea
 ├── boi.md                 BOI promotion strategy and requirements
 ├── catalogue-intelligence.md  Own catalogue: sales map, demand model, advisor
 ├── cnx_vinyl_parametric_payap.FCStd   Payap scenario parametric BIM model
 ├── cnx_vinyl_parametric_payap.png     Top view of the Payap model
 ├── cnx_vinyl_parametric_payap-iso.png Isometric view of the Payap model
@@ -451,7 +451,9 @@ without a new cut) and a repress takes
 ([production timeline](production-timeline.md)). The campaign page can
 reopen as "pre-order the repress, pressed when 100 more are in", which
 turns one release into a recurring one. This is the part a plant with
-in-house plating can offer and a broker cannot.
+in-house plating can offer and a broker cannot. The same pre-order is
 the market test for titles of our own
 ([own catalogue](catalogue-intelligence.md)).
 ## For labels and regular customers
@@ -0,0 +1,424 @@
 # Own Catalogue: Sales Map, Demand Forecast and Market Advisor
 The idea (Alexander, 26 October 2026): if CNX owns a catalogue it can
 press, its sales by shop, region and location can drive a model that says
 what to press next. That needs three things: a **catalogue dashboard**
 with a **map of where the records sell**, a **demand model** that turns
 those sales into press decisions, and an **advisor agent** that points at
 market opportunities. This document plans all three on the systems the
 plant already intends to run. It is a planning position: every figure
 without a source is an estimate, and nothing here is in the business
 plan's revenue.
 ## Why a pressing plant should own a catalogue
 - **It fills press time the plan does not sell.** At the planned 60 %
  specials, specials run only on the Duplex system, and the Classic runs
  at about two thirds of its ~128 records an hour
  ([revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md#operating-picture-of-the-launch-plant-october-2026)).
  The spare third is 21 to 48 records an hour; at the plan's 60 to 70 %
  effectiveness, 16 hours and 300 days that is **~60,000 to 160,000
  records a year** (estimate), black and solid colours only. At the
  calculator's planning rate the launch plant is balanced and that spare
  time disappears, so the catalogue is a filler for idle hours, not a
  reason to buy presses.
 - **A repress is the plant's shortest and cheapest order.** The father
  and mother of every side are archived, so a repress skips cutting and
  the three artist gates and takes **~7 to 11 working days**; a mother
  gives about ten stamper sets and a father 5 to 10 mothers
  ([production timeline](production-timeline.md#repress-the-shortest-path-in-the-plant)).
  A label that has to order from a plant abroad presses big runs months
  ahead and carries the stock. A label inside a plant with its own metal
  archive can press **small runs often, against measured demand**. That
  is what makes a demand model worth having: it is asked every few weeks,
  for a few hundred records, not once a year for thousands.
 - **There is a market for Thai catalogue abroad, and it runs through
  Japan.** EM Records (Osaka) reissues luk thung and molam compiled by
  Soi48, many of them first official reissues
  ([EM1185LP](https://www.discogs.com/release/14467921-Various-Classic-Productions-by-Surin-Phaksiri-Luk-Thung-Gems-from-the-1960s-80s),
  [EM1198DLP](https://emrecords.ocnk.net/product/244)); Bangkok's
  ZudRangMa Records co-released an Angkanang Kunchai compilation with EM
  Records and Soi48 that launched in Japan with the singer present
  ([Bangkok Post](https://www.bangkokpost.com/life/arts-and-entertainment/419399/legendary-molam-star-unleashed-again)).
  Japanese labels shipped 3.38 million records in 2025, and Japan is short
  of pressing capacity ([revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md#resurrec-japan-october-2026)).
  Contract pressing for Japanese labels now competes with ResurRec's new
  Japan plant; selling Thai catalogue into Japan does not.
 - **The reverse has been done.** P-Vine, a Japanese label, built its own
  plant (VGAP, 2024) because domestic plants took six months to a year
  and pressing abroad about six months, too slow for new releases. P-Vine
  also said that, having made records themselves, it found the ~¥4,000 a
  new record sells for "tight"
  ([Phile-web, 15 October 2024](https://www.phileweb.com/news/audio/202410/15/25744.html),
  [BRUTUS, 2025](https://brutus.jp/en/post-430468/)). A catalogue earns the
  retail or wholesale price instead of a pressing fee, and carries stock,
  rights and marketing in exchange.
 ## What counts as our catalogue
 | Kind | What it is | In scope |
 |---|---|---|
 | Poy Records releases | Titles whose masters the label owns; SST in Frankfurt cut lacquers for POY003, 005, 006 and 013 ([equipment suppliers](suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md)) | yes, the seed and the first data |
 | Licensed reissues | Masters licensed for vinyl: territories, term, sell-off period, royalty per unit, advance | a decision (see Open decisions) |
 | Customers' titles | Records the plant presses for artists and labels | **no**: their sales are their data |
 Two rules follow from the third row:
 - **Customers' data never trains our catalogue decisions.** Order sizes,
  represses and shipping addresses of customer titles stay theirs. A
  customer can opt in to share aggregate sales; nobody is opted in by
  default.
 - **Customer orders come first on the presses.** Catalogue runs fill
  idle slots and never move a customer's date. A label that suspects its
  plant favours its own releases goes elsewhere.
 Which titles Poy Records holds, in which territories and until when, is
 the first list to write; nothing below can be tested without it.
 ## The questions the system answers
 1. **What to press next**: which title, before it runs out where it
   sells.
 2. **How many**: a run sized to the demand of the next few months, since
   the next repress is two weeks away.
 3. **Which variant**: black or a colour, within what the presses can
   make (catalogue specials compete with customer specials on the Duplex;
   black and solid colours go on the Classic's idle hours).
 4. **Where the stock goes**: the plant, a distributor, or a shop on
   consignment.
 5. **Which titles to add**: licensing leads for a human to research.
 ## Data sources
 | Source | What it gives | Location detail | Access and terms | Lands in |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
 | Own web shop, direct shop accounts, event sales (Poy Festival merch table) | Every sale with its ship-to or the event's place | postcode or city; the event venue | ours | ERPNext: Sales Invoice, POS Invoice, Delivery Note |
 | Distributor statements | Units per account (shop) and territory per month, returns | shop or territory | the distribution agreement must require monthly sell-through by account, not only sell-in | ERPNext: Channel Sales Report (new, below) |
 | Consignment shops | Monthly stock count, so sell-through per shop | the shop | the consignment agreement | ERPNext: Channel Sales Report, consignment warehouse per shop |
 | Bandcamp | Raw sales report with the buyer's ship-to city, state, postcode and country for physical items; also as JSON through the Sales API ([help](https://get.bandcamp.help/en/articles/15263368-reading-your-raw-data-sales-report), [API](https://bandcamp.com/developer/sales)) | postcode or city | the label's own account | ERPNext: Sales Invoice per Bandcamp payout with lines, or Channel Sales Report |
 | Record passport registrations | A buyer scans the sleeve code and, opting in, gives country and city: the end listener's place even when the record went through a shop or distributor | city | consent on the form; no IP address stored ([traceability](traceability.md)) | machine-data store, per-record rows keyed to the record key |
 | Streaming of our own artists | Top countries and cities per artist and per song in Spotify for Artists ([Spotify](https://artists.spotify.com/en/blog/how-to-read-your-spotify-for-artists-data)); country totals in the distributor's streaming statements | country, top cities | only for artists we release | machine-data store, weekly series |
 | Interest list and pre-orders | "Tell me when it is pressed" sign-ups and campaign pre-orders on the [artist platform](artist-platform.md) | country, city | consent on sign-up | ERPNext: Lead, Campaign, Payment Entry |
 | Discogs monthly data dumps | Every release, version and pressing in the Discogs database: labels, countries, formats, identifiers ([data.discogs.com](https://data.discogs.com), CC0) | country of release | free to use (CC0) | a local index on the plant core, refreshed monthly |
 | Discogs API: have/want counts, lowest price and copies for sale ([API](https://www.discogs.com/developers)) | The collectors' view of a title | none useful | **Restricted Data** (marketplace data by name; the have/want counts come from users' collections and wantlists, which the terms also restrict): no commercial use, no storage longer than needed, never shown more than six hours old, no marketing analytics without Discogs' written permission ([API Terms of Use](https://support.discogs.com/hc/en-us/articles/360009334593-API-Terms-of-Use), checked October 2026); 60 requests a minute | not stored; live look-ups by a person only, unless Discogs agrees in writing |
 | Market totals | Country production and sales series, e.g. RIAJ for Japan ([revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md#resurrec-japan-october-2026)) | country | public | a context layer on the map |
 | Events | Tours, festival slots, film or ad syncs, anniversaries, Record Store Day | city, date | entered by the team | ERPNext (a dated note on the Release) |
 **Sell-in is not sell-through.** A distributor buying 300 copies says
 nothing about fans until the shops sell them; returns can come months
 later. The model uses sell-through wherever an agreement provides it and
 treats sell-in as a weaker signal.
 **Stockouts hide demand.** Weeks in which a title was out of stock at a
 shop record zero sales, not zero demand. Those weeks are marked censored,
 and the interest list and passport registrations carry the demand the
 till could not.
 ## Where the data lives (ERPNext touchpoints)
 The plant's standing rule holds: ERPNext is the only system of record,
 our tools read and write it, and only machine-speed data stays outside
 ([digital factory](digital-factory.md#erpnext-the-plants-erp)).
 | Object | In ERPNext | Outside (machine-data store) |
 |---|---|---|
 | Release, side, item per format and variant | existing custom Release and Side documents; Item per release, format and variant | none |
 | Rights | **new** Licence document in `cnx_erp`: licensor, territories, term, sell-off end, royalty basis and rate, advance and recoupment; Release links to it; "owned" or "licensed" on the Release | none |
 | Royalties | royalty accrual per unit sold, posted as journal entries; a royalty statement print format per licensor | none |
 | Places | Address gains latitude and longitude of its **postcode or city centroid** (custom fields, filled by the geocoder); shops are Customers in a "Shop" group with their exact location; regions are ERPNext Territories | none |
 | Sales | Sales Invoice, POS Invoice, Delivery Note | none |
 | Third-party sales | **new** Channel Sales Report: source (distributor, Bandcamp, consignment count), period, lines of item, place (shop, territory or city), units sold, returned, on hand | none |
 | Stock | Warehouses at the plant, at each distributor and one per consignment shop | none |
 | Metal | Serial No per father, mother and stamper with sets used per mother (already planned) | metrology raw files |
 | Recommendations | **new** Catalogue Recommendation: title and variant, quantity, the forecast quantiles it rests on, the reason, status (proposed, accepted, rejected), link to the Work Order it became | the full forecast rows per title, place and month |
 | Market opportunities | CRM Opportunity and Lead (new shop, distributor, territory, licensing lead) | none |
 | External signals | none | weekly streams per country and city, passport registrations, Discogs dump index, map aggregates |
 The forecast rows and map aggregates are derived and can be rebuilt from
 ERPNext and the signal series at any time; nobody types into them.
 Decisions and their outcomes are ERPNext documents, which is what lets
 the model and the advisor be scored later.
 ```mermaid
 flowchart LR
    subgraph S[Sources]
        SHOP[Web shop, shop accounts,<br/>event POS]
        DIST[Distributor and<br/>consignment statements]
        BC[Bandcamp sales report]
        INT[Interest list,<br/>pre-orders]
        PP[Record passport<br/>registrations, opt-in]
        STR[Streaming by country<br/>and city, own artists]
        DG[Discogs CC0 dump]
    end
    ERP[(ERPNext<br/>releases, licences, sales,<br/>stock, channel reports)]
    MD[(Machine-data store<br/>signal series, forecast rows)]
    FC[Forecast job]
    DASH[Catalogue dashboard<br/>and sales map]
    AG[Market advisor]
    TEAM[Team decides]
    SHOP --> ERP
    DIST --> ERP
    BC --> ERP
    INT --> ERP
    PP --> MD
    STR --> MD
    DG --> MD
    ERP --> FC
    MD --> FC
    FC --> MD
    FC -->|recommendations| ERP
    ERP --> DASH
    MD --> DASH
    DASH --> AG
    AG -->|drafts: recommendations,<br/>opportunities| ERP
    ERP --> TEAM
    TEAM -->|repress work order| ERP
 ```
 ## Personal data
 Buyers' names and addresses are personal data under Thailand's PDPA
 (B.E. 2562, fully in force since 1 June 2022;
 [overview](https://pacmap.dev/regulation/th-pdpa-2019)), and so is a sales
 location fine enough to point at one buyer.
 The map is built so that it never needs a person:
 - addresses are geocoded to the **postcode or city centroid**, never to
  the house;
 - a map cell shows a count only when it holds at least five buyers;
  smaller cells merge into the surrounding region;
 - only shops and venues, which are businesses, appear as points;
 - passport registrations ask for country and city, with consent, and
  store no name, e-mail or IP address unless the fan asks to be told
  about represses;
 - the advisor sees aggregates only; no personal data goes into a prompt.
 ## The catalogue dashboard
 One internal tool for the label team, with five views.
 1. **Catalogue.** Every title and variant: owned or licensed, licence
   territories and expiry, stock by place (plant, distributors, each
   consignment shop), sell-through over 4, 13 and 52 weeks, weeks of
   cover at the current rate, repress-ready (father and mother archived,
   stamper sets left on the mother from ERPNext's counts), last pressing,
   royalties accrued, and a flag when a recommendation is open.
 2. **Sales map.** Sales density by city or hexagon over time, with a
   time slider and filters by title, genre, variant and channel. Layers:
   own sales; shops with our stock (pins sized by stock, coloured by
   weeks of cover); distributor territories; streaming listeners of our
   artists; passport registrations; interest-list sign-ups; country
   totals (RIAJ and others) as context. A **white-space layer** marks
   places where listeners, sign-ups or registrations are high and sales
   or stock are low: the map's version of a market opportunity.
 3. **Title page.** The sales curve with out-of-stock weeks shaded, the
   forecast fan for the next months, the title's own map, its metal
   genealogy and its licence clock.
 4. **Repress planner.** Proposed runs against free press slots from the
   factory scheduler (customer work orders already placed, catalogue in
   the gaps), with the Classic's idle hours as the default home for black
   and solid colours.
 5. **Advisor inbox.** The advisor's notes, each with its numbers linked
   to the rows they came from, and accept or reject buttons that create
   or close the ERPNext document.
 **How it is built.** Same stack and rules as every other tool
 ([digital factory](digital-factory.md#the-factory-application)): Rust
 (axum, minijinja, HTMX) in `cnx-factory`, its own ERPNext integration
 user, deployed by the clan, internal only (office and the team over the
 mesh, not public). The map is open source and self-hosted, in line with
 the plant's open-source decision
 ([digital factory](digital-factory.md#open-source-throughout-and-working-with-other-plants)):
 - **MapLibre GL JS** (BSD-3-Clause) in the browser;
 - **vector tiles from OpenStreetMap data** (ODbL, attribution on the map)
  as one Protomaps PMTiles file (BSD-3-Clause tooling) served from the
  fleet, so no Google Maps or Mapbox account;
 - **H3** hexagons (Apache-2.0) for binning;
 - **geocoding offline**: postcode and city centroids from GeoNames
  (CC BY 4.0), with a self-hosted Nominatim only if centroids prove too
  coarse.
 ## The demand model
 The model grows with the data. Each stage has to beat the simpler one
 before it is allowed to decide anything.
 **Stage 0: no sales history (a new title or a reissue candidate).**
 Demand is borrowed from comparable titles (genre, era, the artist's
 streaming, how many pressings already exist per the Discogs dump) and
 tested cheaply: a **pre-order campaign on the
 [artist platform](artist-platform.md#fan-funded-campaigns)** for our own
 title is the experiment. If the pre-orders reach the minimum run, press;
 if not, refund and learn. The same mechanism the platform offers artists
 becomes the label's market test.
 **Stage 1: the first months of sales.** A reorder rule, not a model:
 sell-through per title and place per week, with out-of-stock weeks left
 out of the rate. Repress when the stock that will be left at the end of
 the repress lead time (~7 to 11 working days, plus transport to where it
 sells) falls below a safety stock. Dashboard view 1 shows this from the
 first sale.
 **Stage 2: a year of data and a few dozen titles (thresholds are
 estimates).** A hierarchical count model of weekly sales per title and
 place (negative binomial, with partial pooling across titles of the same
 genre and across nearby places), so a title with three months of history
 borrows strength from its neighbours. Inputs: past sales with censoring
 for stockouts, the artist's streaming in that place with a lag, price,
 variant, season (year-end, Record Store Day), events, age since release,
 passport registrations and sign-ups. Output: a forecast **distribution**
 (quantiles), never a single number. Runs as a nightly batch job on the
 plant core (Python with statsmodels or PyMC from nixpkgs, as a systemd
 timer).
 **How many to press.** With a two-week repress the run only has to cover
 the next few months, so it is sized by the classic stocking rule: press
 the quantile of next-period demand at which the margin lost on a missed
 sale balances the cost of a record left unsold.
 - Missed-sale cost: net selling price after the channel's margin, minus
  direct cost (1.35 to 2.70 USD a record in the
  [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md#operating-picture-of-the-launch-plant-october-2026)),
  minus royalty.
 - Unsold-record cost: direct cost plus storage and the money tied up,
  minus what the PVC is worth as regrind after the label punch
  ([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md#newbilt-range-making-vinyl-europe-2026-flyers)).
 - Floor: a run long enough to pay the press setup (half a day per run in
  the [production timeline](production-timeline.md#repress-the-shortest-path-in-the-plant))
  and within one stamper's life (1,000 to 2,000 pressings).
 Our wholesale and retail prices for catalogue titles are not in any
 document yet; they are inputs to fill before the rule produces a number.
 **How it is checked.** Rolling back-tests on our own history: do the
 80 % intervals contain about 80 % of outcomes, and does following the
 model give fewer out-of-stock weeks and less stock unsold after a year
 than the Stage 1 rule did? Accepted and rejected recommendations, with
 what then sold, are ERPNext records, so this is a report, not a project.
 ## The market advisor
 An agent that reads the dashboard's data and writes a **weekly note**
 plus answers to questions ("where does molam sell outside Thailand?",
 "which shops stock out fastest?"). It **proposes and never acts**: it
 places no work order, sends no e-mail to a shop or licensor and changes
 no price. An accepted proposal becomes an ERPNext document created by a
 person.
 What it looks for:
 - **Repress now**: weeks of cover below the repress lead time plus
  safety, with the run size from the model.
 - **Move stock**: a shop out of stock while another sits on months of
  cover.
 - **White space**: places with listeners, sign-ups or registrations and
  no shop or distributor; proposed as a CRM Lead for a shop or
  distributor to approach.
 - **Variants**: colours that sell faster in a region than black, within
  what the presses can make that month.
 - **Events**: an artist's tour or festival date in a city where stock is
  thin.
 - **Licensing leads**: titles in genres that sell for us that, per the
  Discogs dump, were never reissued or not for decades, with the original
  label named. A lead for a person to research; the advisor never says
  that rights are available.
 How it is kept honest:
 - the numbers come from the model and the database, the words from the
  agent; every figure in a note links to its row and date;
 - it separates our own data from outside signals and says how sure it
  is;
 - it has read-only tools: the dashboard API, the forecast rows, ERPNext
  reports through a read-only integration user, the local Discogs dump
  index, this repository's market notes, and web search through a
  self-hosted SearXNG for news (tours, syncs, competing reissues);
 - every suggestion and its outcome is logged, and after six months it is
  scored against the plain reorder rule; if it does not beat it, it
  becomes a report instead of an agent.
 **Which model runs it.** By the open-source rule, an open-weights
 language model served on a fleet machine (llama.cpp or vLLM on NixOS) is
 the default; the forecasting is ordinary statistics, so the language
 model only reads, searches and writes. No such GPU machine is in the
 fleet plan yet (estimate: one workstation-class GPU, a few thousand USD).
 A hosted model is a fallback to decide on only if the open one proves
 inadequate, and then only aggregates leave the fleet.
 ## How it fits the plant
 - **Scheduling.** Catalogue work orders enter the same ERPNext schedule
  as customer orders, flagged as fillers; the factory scheduler places
  them in idle Classic hours first and never moves a customer date.
 - **Metal archive.** Catalogue fathers and mothers sit in the archive
  room with everyone else's
  ([facility security](facility-security.md)); "repress-ready" on the
  dashboard is ERPNext's serial-number data.
 - **Traceability.** Catalogue sleeves carry the record passport code like
  every other record, which is what makes the registration layer of the
  map possible ([traceability](traceability.md)).
 - **Artist platform.** Catalogue pre-orders use the campaign machinery
  and its ring-fenced payments; the catalogue's own web shop is a
  separate storefront on the same public side
  ([artist platform](artist-platform.md#how-it-is-built)).
 - **Money.** Not in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md) or the
  [total investment](finance/total-investment.md). A catalogue needs
  working capital for stock and licence advances, which neither plan
  carries.
 ## Phasing
 | Roadmap phase | Step |
 |---|---|
 | 0, validate (now) | List Poy Records' titles and rights; collect its existing sales (Bandcamp report, shops, festival) into one sheet and draw the first map by hand; decide whether to ask Discogs for written permission |
 | 1 to 2, quotes and commit | Decide whether the catalogue is in scope, under which label, owned only or licensed too, and how the working capital is funded |
 | 3, build | ERPNext: Licence, Channel Sales Report, Catalogue Recommendation, geocode fields, consignment warehouses; dashboard views 1 and 2 in the factory application; geocoder and tiles on the fleet |
 | 4, launch | First catalogue represses in idle slots on the Stage 1 rule; passport registrations live; advisor version 0 (rule-based notes written up by the language model) |
 | 5, expand | Stage 2 model once there is a year of data; licensing leads; offer label customers the same dashboard on their own data (opt-in), like the open plant stack, not in the revenue |
 ## Rough cost (estimates)
 | Item | Effort or cost |
 |---|---|
 | ERPNext additions in `cnx_erp` (Licence, Channel Sales Report, Catalogue Recommendation, geocode fields, royalty statement) | 0.5 to 1 person-month |
 | Importers (Bandcamp, distributor and consignment statements, streaming exports) | 0.5 to 1 person-month |
 | Dashboard and sales map in the factory application | 1.5 to 3 person-months |
 | Forecast job: Stage 1 rule, then the Stage 2 model | 0.5, then 1 to 2 person-months |
 | Advisor: tools, prompts, logging, scoring | 1 to 1.5 person-months |
 | GPU machine for the open-weights model | a few thousand USD of hardware |
 | Map tiles, geocoder, hosting | on the existing fleet |
 ## Risks
 - **Stock is the risk a pressing plant normally avoids.** Small, frequent
  represses keep it small; the model's job is to keep it smaller.
 - **Small data.** A few dozen titles is little to learn from; the stages
  above exist so that no complex model decides before it has beaten a
  simple rule.
 - **Data access.** Distributors and shops report sell-through only if the
  contract says so; that clause goes into every agreement from the
  first.
 - **Platform terms.** Discogs' marketplace and wantlist data are
  restricted; the plan uses its CC0 dumps and live look-ups by a person
  unless Discogs agrees in writing.
 - **Conflict with customers.** The scheduling rule and the data rule
  above have to be written into the customer terms, not only into this
  document.
 - **Distraction.** A label is a second business. The catalogue stays a
  filler for idle press time until the plant's own order book is
  validated ([roadmap](roadmap.md) item 1).
 ## Open decisions
 1. **Catalogue in scope**, and under which name: Poy Records (the seed),
   CNX Vinyl, or a new imprint.
 2. **Owned titles only, or licensed reissues too.** Licensing adds
   advances, royalty accounting and territory limits.
 3. **Working capital** for stock and advances: how much and from where;
   neither plan carries it.
 4. **Discogs**: ask for written permission to use have/want and
   marketplace data commercially, or work from the CC0 dumps alone.
 5. **Language model**: open-weights on the fleet (default) or hosted.
 6. **Label customers**: whether they are offered the dashboard on their
   own data, and on what terms.
@@ -708,7 +708,8 @@ is kept outside it.
   own, and keeps its records in ERPNext. A tool that cannot read from or
   write to ERPNext this way is not finished; a tool with its own
   database of business records is not allowed. Machine data is the only
-   exception.
+   exception. The [own catalogue](catalogue-intelligence.md) dashboard,
   sales map and demand model are planned this way.
 ### Hosting on NixOS
@@ -594,7 +594,9 @@ For CNX it means the ~0.74M records a year the plan needs from Asian
 labels ([roadmap](../roadmap.md) item 1) has to come more from Southeast
 Asia, the rest of Asia and Western export, where the plants above
 compete, and less from Japan's queue. That makes the buyer conversations
-in item 1 more pressing, not less.
+in item 1 more pressing, not less. Selling Thai catalogue into Japan is a
 different route that does not compete with ResurRec's presses there
 ([own catalogue](../catalogue-intelligence.md)).
 Open questions: where the Japan plant is, since when, how many presses
 and which, whether it plates, whether Bangkok keeps its orders or
@@ -195,7 +195,8 @@ Two commercial consequences worth acting on:
  to go back to, so a repress restarts at lacquer cutting and costs the
  customer six weeks and a new cutting fee. 3-step buys the two-week
  repress, and that repress is the highest-margin order the plant will
-  ever take. Decided (October 2026): the plant keeps the **father as well
+  ever take. For a catalogue of the plant's own it is also what makes
  small, demand-led runs possible ([own catalogue](catalogue-intelligence.md)). Decided (October 2026): the plant keeps the **father as well
  as the mother** of every side.
 - **How many represses a mother carries.** The common rule of thumb is
  about **10 stamper sets per mother** before it degrades (Third Man
@@ -171,6 +171,11 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
 27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand
    shows up in Phase 4, or to host the joint audio engineering programme
    with Payap University, see [Payap partnership](payap-partnership.md))
 28. **Own catalogue** (idea, October 2026): press our own titles in idle
    press time, steered by a sales map and a demand model
    ([own catalogue](catalogue-intelligence.md)). The data work starts in
    Phase 0 with Poy Records' existing sales; whether the catalogue is in
    scope, and with what working capital, is decided before the build
 ## Standing principle