Specials share 60 %+: revenue model, calculator and business plan re-based
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User (October 2026): "lets say 60+% special prints" (the plant focuses on
special prints, not mono colours).

- Specials (splatter, marble, colour effects) run only on the Duplex
  systems, so at 60 % the Duplex sets the launch plant's output: ~0.58 /
  0.74 / 0.90M records a year (was 0.71 / 0.84 / 0.97 at ~20 %), the
  Classic at about two thirds load. Full 60/40 hall: ~2.3 to 3.6M (Duplex
  -limited, Classics about half loaded); five-press fleet unchanged. A
  hall balanced by output at 60 % would give Duplex ~70 to 75 % of the
  floor (estimate; noted, not applied).
- Blended price 3.76 / 4.49 / 5.27 USD (standard 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25 plus
  the 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 specials premium on 60 %). Launch operating
  picture: revenue 2.28 / 3.65 / 5.41M USD, EBITDA 0.23 / 1.73 / 3.79M,
  operating profit -0.66 / 1.21 / 3.46M, payback ~3.8 yr central,
  break-even ~0.25M records; adverse needs ~1.1M records to cover
  depreciation. Specials' extra direct cost (coloured compound, purge,
  trim only into black) is not in the cost table yet: flagged as an
  upper bound until compound quotes.
- Calculator default specials share 20 -> 60 % (planning rates keep the
  launch plant balanced at 850k: revenue 4.14M, EBITDA 2.07M, payback
  3.3 yr, cash payback year ~4.8, IRR ~18 %).
- revenue-model.md, scale.md, pressing-line.md, README; business plan
  draft 0.2 rebuilt (sections 1, 4, 9, risks).

Checks: calculator regression 0 fails, no page errors, node --check on
all scripts; PDF 47 pages, table of contents filled; no em dashes added.
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grabowski committed 2026-10-16 20:45:39 +07:00
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@@ -9,9 +9,9 @@ page as real quotes and the site decision land.
| Phase | Fleet | Rough output |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant (decided October 2026) | 2 semi-auto (Duplex system 1: EX 50 main + EX 35 colour extruder) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), commissioned in sequence, 2 shifts at volume | ~0.71 to 0.97 million records/yr |
| Launch plant (decided October 2026) | 2 semi-auto (Duplex system 1: EX 50 main + EX 35 colour extruder) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), commissioned in sequence, 2 shifts at volume | ~0.58 to 0.90 million records/yr at the planned 60 % specials (Duplex-limited); ~0.71 to 0.97 million at ~20 % |
| Growth option: second Duplex | 4 semi-auto (two Duplex systems) + 1 Classic, 2 shifts; room reserved, not in the investment | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr |
| Full hall (option) | 4 Duplex systems + 6 Classics, the hall laid out 60/40 for Duplex, 2 shifts | ~3.6 to 4.7 million records/yr (estimate) |
| Full hall (option) | 4 Duplex systems + 6 Classics, the hall laid out 60/40 for Duplex, 2 shifts | ~2.3 to 3.6 million records/yr at 60 % specials, ~3.6 to 4.7 million at ~20 % (estimate) |
The [press fleet calculator](fleet-calculator.html) sizes the fleet for
any yearly output and specials share, with the people and utilities it
@@ -53,6 +53,17 @@ presses and six Classics give 1,250 to 1,410 records/hour gross, ~3.6 to
[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md) nor the investment includes
them.
**Specials share 60 % and more (October 2026).** Specials run only on the
Duplex systems, so at 60 % they set the output wherever the Duplex makes
less than 60 % of the fleet's records: the launch plant drops to ~0.58 to
0.90 million (the Classic runs at about two thirds load) and the full
hall to ~2.3 to 3.6 million (the six Classics about half loaded). The
five-press fleet is not affected. At the planning rates of the
[calculator](fleet-calculator.html) (3 a minute per Duplex system) the
launch plant stays balanced at ~0.94 million. A hall balanced by output
at 60 % specials would give the Duplex systems ~70 to 75 % of the floor
(estimate), e.g. five Duplex bays and four Classic positions.
**The 60–70% effectiveness assumption is worth challenging, but not yet
changing.** Newbilt publishes ≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime for the Classic
12" automatic at a 28 s cycle (~128 records/h), and quotes ~30 s average