Specials share 60 %+: revenue model, calculator and business plan re-based
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User (October 2026): "lets say 60+% special prints" (the plant focuses on special prints, not mono colours). - Specials (splatter, marble, colour effects) run only on the Duplex systems, so at 60 % the Duplex sets the launch plant's output: ~0.58 / 0.74 / 0.90M records a year (was 0.71 / 0.84 / 0.97 at ~20 %), the Classic at about two thirds load. Full 60/40 hall: ~2.3 to 3.6M (Duplex -limited, Classics about half loaded); five-press fleet unchanged. A hall balanced by output at 60 % would give Duplex ~70 to 75 % of the floor (estimate; noted, not applied). - Blended price 3.76 / 4.49 / 5.27 USD (standard 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25 plus the 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 specials premium on 60 %). Launch operating picture: revenue 2.28 / 3.65 / 5.41M USD, EBITDA 0.23 / 1.73 / 3.79M, operating profit -0.66 / 1.21 / 3.46M, payback ~3.8 yr central, break-even ~0.25M records; adverse needs ~1.1M records to cover depreciation. Specials' extra direct cost (coloured compound, purge, trim only into black) is not in the cost table yet: flagged as an upper bound until compound quotes. - Calculator default specials share 20 -> 60 % (planning rates keep the launch plant balanced at 850k: revenue 4.14M, EBITDA 2.07M, payback 3.3 yr, cash payback year ~4.8, IRR ~18 %). - revenue-model.md, scale.md, pressing-line.md, README; business plan draft 0.2 rebuilt (sections 1, 4, 9, risks). Checks: calculator regression 0 fails, no page errors, node --check on all scripts; PDF 47 pages, table of contents filled; no em dashes added.
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@@ -53,8 +53,10 @@ def blocks():
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"partner Ploy Printing, and fulfilment including direct-to-fan dropshipping.",
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"**Three presses at launch:** one Newbilt Duplex system (two semi-automatic presses with a main "
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"and a colour extruder, for colour, splatter and short runs) and one Newbilt Classic fully "
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"automatic press for long standard runs. Together about 0.71 to 0.97 million records a year on "
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"two shifts (estimate). A second Duplex system is a growth option with its floor, utility "
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"automatic press for long standard runs. Special prints are the focus (60 % and more of the "
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"records), and specials run only on the Duplex, so together they make about 0.58 to 0.90 million "
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"records a year on two shifts (0.71 to 0.97 million at a standard-heavy mix; estimates). A second "
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"Duplex system is a growth option with its floor, utility "
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"positions and pipe connections reserved, not part of the investment.",
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"**The metal path in-house:** a Sillitoe SDMS cutting room, a Pheenix Alpha galvanics line with "
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"zero-discharge water treatment, and the Sibert stamper-prep line. The father and the mother of "
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@@ -111,9 +113,10 @@ def blocks():
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]),
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H2("The numbers"),
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KV([
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["Capacity", "Launch plant ~0.71M to 0.97M records/yr (2 semi-automatic presses + 1 Classic, "
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"2 shifts; estimate; the press fleet calculator gives ~0.94M at our planning "
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"rates). Second Duplex as growth option: ~1.0M to 1.5M"],
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["Capacity", "Launch plant ~0.58M to 0.90M records/yr at 60 % specials (2 semi-automatic "
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"presses + 1 Classic, 2 shifts; the Duplex sets the pace; estimate; the press fleet "
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"calculator gives ~0.94M at our planning rates). Second Duplex as growth option: "
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"~1.0M to 1.5M"],
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["Site", "~1,500 m² main building plus a ~379 m² utility yard built for four boiler and four "
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"chiller modules, on leased land (~4 rai minimum, 6 to 8 rai with expansion); second "
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"building as expansion"],
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@@ -127,13 +130,13 @@ def blocks():
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"open quotes land low**"],
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["Land lease", "Not negotiated; the plan carries an estimated THB 0.3M to 1.0M per year "
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"(USD 9k to 30k), section 6.1"],
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["Operating result, mature year", "Central case: revenue ~USD 3.75M (~THB 124M), EBITDA ~USD 1.63M "
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"(~THB 54M), operating profit ~USD 1.11M (~THB 37M), payback "
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"~4 years (3.0 to 5.5 on the 4.9M to 8.9M band); break-even "
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"on operating profit at ~0.3M records a year. **The adverse "
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"case loses money:** EBITDA ~USD 0.22M, operating loss ~USD "
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"0.67M (~THB 22M). Utilisation and price decide the outcome, "
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"not upside (section 9)"],
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["Operating result, mature year", "Central case at 60 % specials: revenue ~USD 3.65M (~THB 120M), "
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"EBITDA ~USD 1.73M (~THB 57M), operating profit ~USD 1.21M (~THB "
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"40M), payback ~3.8 years (2.8 to 5.1 on the 4.9M to 8.9M band); "
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"break-even on operating profit at ~0.25M records a year. **The "
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"adverse case loses money:** EBITDA ~USD 0.23M, operating loss "
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"~USD 0.66M (~THB 22M). Utilisation and price decide the "
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"outcome, not upside (section 9)"],
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["First paying release", "**Open.** The August 2026 calendar gives Q4 2028 to mid-2029 (27 to 33 "
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"months from the start of phase 0), but it was drawn for a one-press "
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"launch. Commissioning the cutting room and galvanics before the presses "
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@@ -545,15 +548,17 @@ def blocks():
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"be flat, non-slip and solvent-resistant."),
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T(["Stage", "Fleet", "Rough output per year"], [
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["Launch plant", "1 Duplex system (2 semi-automatic) + 1 Classic, 2 shifts",
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"~0.71 to 0.97 million records"],
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"~0.58 to 0.90 million records at 60 % specials (0.71 to 0.97 at ~20 %)"],
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["Growth option: second Duplex", "4 semi-automatic + 1 Classic, 2 shifts; room reserved, not in "
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"the investment", "~1.0 to 1.5 million records"],
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["Full hall (option)", "4 Duplex systems + 6 Classics, the press hall laid out 60/40 for Duplex "
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"(special pressings first); a utility phase of its own", "~3.6 to 4.7 million records (estimate)"],
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"(special pressings first); a utility phase of its own", "~2.3 to 3.6 million records at 60 % "
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"specials (estimate)"],
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], widths_mm=[40, 80, 50],
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caption="Basis: semi-automatic 60 to 80 records/h assumed; Classic ~128/h (vendor flyer); 16 h/day, "
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"300 days/yr, 60 to 70% overall equipment effectiveness. The launch plant is 248 to 288 "
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"records/h at nameplate, ~149 to 202/h after effectiveness; the press fleet calculator at "
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"300 days/yr, 60 to 70% overall equipment effectiveness; specials (60 % and more) only on the Duplex. "
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"The launch plant is 248 to 288 records/h at nameplate, but at 60 % specials the Duplex caps "
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"it at 200 to 267/h, ~120 to 187/h after effectiveness; the press fleet calculator at "
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"the team's planning rates gives ~0.94 million. Neither option is in the revenue model "
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"or the investment."),
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P("**On the 60 to 70% effectiveness figure.** Newbilt publishes 95% yield and 95% uptime for the "
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