Specials share 60 %+: revenue model, calculator and business plan re-based
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User (October 2026): "lets say 60+% special prints" (the plant focuses on special prints, not mono colours). - Specials (splatter, marble, colour effects) run only on the Duplex systems, so at 60 % the Duplex sets the launch plant's output: ~0.58 / 0.74 / 0.90M records a year (was 0.71 / 0.84 / 0.97 at ~20 %), the Classic at about two thirds load. Full 60/40 hall: ~2.3 to 3.6M (Duplex -limited, Classics about half loaded); five-press fleet unchanged. A hall balanced by output at 60 % would give Duplex ~70 to 75 % of the floor (estimate; noted, not applied). - Blended price 3.76 / 4.49 / 5.27 USD (standard 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25 plus the 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 specials premium on 60 %). Launch operating picture: revenue 2.28 / 3.65 / 5.41M USD, EBITDA 0.23 / 1.73 / 3.79M, operating profit -0.66 / 1.21 / 3.46M, payback ~3.8 yr central, break-even ~0.25M records; adverse needs ~1.1M records to cover depreciation. Specials' extra direct cost (coloured compound, purge, trim only into black) is not in the cost table yet: flagged as an upper bound until compound quotes. - Calculator default specials share 20 -> 60 % (planning rates keep the launch plant balanced at 850k: revenue 4.14M, EBITDA 2.07M, payback 3.3 yr, cash payback year ~4.8, IRR ~18 %). - revenue-model.md, scale.md, pressing-line.md, README; business plan draft 0.2 rebuilt (sections 1, 4, 9, risks). Checks: calculator regression 0 fails, no page errors, node --check on all scripts; PDF 47 pages, table of contents filled; no em dashes added.
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@@ -53,8 +53,10 @@ def blocks():
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"partner Ploy Printing, and fulfilment including direct-to-fan dropshipping.",
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"**Three presses at launch:** one Newbilt Duplex system (two semi-automatic presses with a main "
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"and a colour extruder, for colour, splatter and short runs) and one Newbilt Classic fully "
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"automatic press for long standard runs. Together about 0.71 to 0.97 million records a year on "
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"two shifts (estimate). A second Duplex system is a growth option with its floor, utility "
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"automatic press for long standard runs. Special prints are the focus (60 % and more of the "
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"records), and specials run only on the Duplex, so together they make about 0.58 to 0.90 million "
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"records a year on two shifts (0.71 to 0.97 million at a standard-heavy mix; estimates). A second "
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"Duplex system is a growth option with its floor, utility "
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"positions and pipe connections reserved, not part of the investment.",
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"**The metal path in-house:** a Sillitoe SDMS cutting room, a Pheenix Alpha galvanics line with "
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"zero-discharge water treatment, and the Sibert stamper-prep line. The father and the mother of "
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@@ -111,9 +113,10 @@ def blocks():
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]),
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H2("The numbers"),
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KV([
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["Capacity", "Launch plant ~0.71M to 0.97M records/yr (2 semi-automatic presses + 1 Classic, "
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"2 shifts; estimate; the press fleet calculator gives ~0.94M at our planning "
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"rates). Second Duplex as growth option: ~1.0M to 1.5M"],
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["Capacity", "Launch plant ~0.58M to 0.90M records/yr at 60 % specials (2 semi-automatic "
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"presses + 1 Classic, 2 shifts; the Duplex sets the pace; estimate; the press fleet "
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"calculator gives ~0.94M at our planning rates). Second Duplex as growth option: "
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"~1.0M to 1.5M"],
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["Site", "~1,500 m² main building plus a ~379 m² utility yard built for four boiler and four "
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"chiller modules, on leased land (~4 rai minimum, 6 to 8 rai with expansion); second "
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"building as expansion"],
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@@ -127,13 +130,13 @@ def blocks():
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"open quotes land low**"],
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["Land lease", "Not negotiated; the plan carries an estimated THB 0.3M to 1.0M per year "
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"(USD 9k to 30k), section 6.1"],
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["Operating result, mature year", "Central case: revenue ~USD 3.75M (~THB 124M), EBITDA ~USD 1.63M "
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"(~THB 54M), operating profit ~USD 1.11M (~THB 37M), payback "
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"~4 years (3.0 to 5.5 on the 4.9M to 8.9M band); break-even "
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"on operating profit at ~0.3M records a year. **The adverse "
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"case loses money:** EBITDA ~USD 0.22M, operating loss ~USD "
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"0.67M (~THB 22M). Utilisation and price decide the outcome, "
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"not upside (section 9)"],
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["Operating result, mature year", "Central case at 60 % specials: revenue ~USD 3.65M (~THB 120M), "
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"EBITDA ~USD 1.73M (~THB 57M), operating profit ~USD 1.21M (~THB "
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"40M), payback ~3.8 years (2.8 to 5.1 on the 4.9M to 8.9M band); "
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"break-even on operating profit at ~0.25M records a year. **The "
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"adverse case loses money:** EBITDA ~USD 0.23M, operating loss "
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"~USD 0.66M (~THB 22M). Utilisation and price decide the "
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"outcome, not upside (section 9)"],
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["First paying release", "**Open.** The August 2026 calendar gives Q4 2028 to mid-2029 (27 to 33 "
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"months from the start of phase 0), but it was drawn for a one-press "
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"launch. Commissioning the cutting room and galvanics before the presses "
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@@ -545,15 +548,17 @@ def blocks():
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"be flat, non-slip and solvent-resistant."),
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T(["Stage", "Fleet", "Rough output per year"], [
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["Launch plant", "1 Duplex system (2 semi-automatic) + 1 Classic, 2 shifts",
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"~0.71 to 0.97 million records"],
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"~0.58 to 0.90 million records at 60 % specials (0.71 to 0.97 at ~20 %)"],
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["Growth option: second Duplex", "4 semi-automatic + 1 Classic, 2 shifts; room reserved, not in "
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"the investment", "~1.0 to 1.5 million records"],
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["Full hall (option)", "4 Duplex systems + 6 Classics, the press hall laid out 60/40 for Duplex "
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"(special pressings first); a utility phase of its own", "~3.6 to 4.7 million records (estimate)"],
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"(special pressings first); a utility phase of its own", "~2.3 to 3.6 million records at 60 % "
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"specials (estimate)"],
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], widths_mm=[40, 80, 50],
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caption="Basis: semi-automatic 60 to 80 records/h assumed; Classic ~128/h (vendor flyer); 16 h/day, "
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"300 days/yr, 60 to 70% overall equipment effectiveness. The launch plant is 248 to 288 "
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"records/h at nameplate, ~149 to 202/h after effectiveness; the press fleet calculator at "
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"300 days/yr, 60 to 70% overall equipment effectiveness; specials (60 % and more) only on the Duplex. "
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"The launch plant is 248 to 288 records/h at nameplate, but at 60 % specials the Duplex caps "
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"it at 200 to 267/h, ~120 to 187/h after effectiveness; the press fleet calculator at "
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"the team's planning rates gives ~0.94 million. Neither option is in the revenue model "
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"or the investment."),
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P("**On the 60 to 70% effectiveness figure.** Newbilt publishes 95% yield and 95% uptime for the "
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@@ -194,11 +194,15 @@ def blocks():
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H2("9.1 Pricing assumptions"),
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B([
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"**Blended pressing price: USD 3.50 to 4.60 per record** (THB 115 to 150), across run sizes and the "
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"standard/colour mix, covering pressing, labels, inner sleeve and assembly into the jacket; deluxe "
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"packaging passed through at cost plus margin. Western plants charge roughly USD 2.90 to 5.80 for "
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"standard black at volume, with premiums of 0.60 to 1.70 for colour and splatter, 180 g and small "
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"runs.",
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"**Blended pressing price: USD 3.76 to 5.27 per record** (THB 124 to 174) at the planned **60 % "
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"specials** (splatter, marble and colour effects; the plant focuses on special prints, not mono "
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"colours): standard USD 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25 plus a specials premium of 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 on 60 % "
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"of the records, covering pressing, labels, inner sleeve and assembly into the jacket; deluxe "
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"packaging passed through at cost plus margin. At ~20 % specials the same prices blend to 3.50 to "
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"4.60. Western plants charge roughly USD 2.90 to 5.80 for standard black at volume, with premiums "
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"of 0.60 to 1.70 for colour and splatter, 180 g and small runs. What specials cost extra "
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"(coloured compound, colour-change purge, trim that only goes back into black) is not yet in the "
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"direct cost, so the specials gain is an upper bound until the compound quotes arrive.",
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"**Western benchmark, October 2026.** Record Industry (Haarlem) publishes its prices online: 300 "
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"copies of a black 140 g LP with stampers, test pressings, printed labels, a paper inner sleeve, a "
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"printed jacket and shrink wrap come to **1,721 EUR all-in (~219 THB a copy)**, ex VAT and freight. "
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@@ -222,19 +226,21 @@ def blocks():
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]),
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H2("9.2 Capacity and revenue of the launch plant"),
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P("Three presses make **~0.71 to 0.97 million records a year on two shifts** (estimate): the two "
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"semi-automatic presses of the Duplex system at 60 to 80 records an hour each and the Classic at "
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"~128 an hour (28 s cycle, vendor flyer), at 60 to 70 % effectiveness, 16 hours a day and 300 days "
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"a year. The press fleet calculator, at the team's planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex "
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"system, 2 per Classic, 65 % effectiveness), gives ~0.94 million. The central case takes the "
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"middle, 0.84 million."),
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P("Three presses make **~0.58 to 0.90 million records a year on two shifts at 60 % specials** "
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"(estimate). Specials run only on the Duplex system (the Classic has one built-in extruder), so its "
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"two semi-automatic presses at 60 to 80 records an hour each set the pace, and the Classic (~128 an "
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"hour, 28 s cycle, vendor flyer) presses the standard 40 % at about two thirds load; at 60 to 70 % "
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"effectiveness, 16 hours a day and 300 days a year. At ~20 % specials the same presses made 0.71 to "
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"0.97 million. The press fleet calculator, at the team's planning rates (3 records a minute per "
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"Duplex system, 2 per Classic, 65 % effectiveness), stays balanced at ~0.94 million. The central "
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"case takes the middle, 0.74 million."),
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T(["USD per year", "Adverse", "Central", "Favourable"], [
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["Records", "0.71M", "0.84M", "0.97M"],
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["Blended price", "3.50", "4.05", "4.60"],
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["Pressing revenue", "~2.49M", "~3.40M", "~4.46M"],
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["Records", "0.58M", "0.74M", "0.90M"],
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["Blended price, 60 % specials", "3.76", "4.49", "5.27"],
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["Pressing revenue", "~2.17M", "~3.31M", "~4.72M"],
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["Titles × per-title fee", "200 × 580", "300 × 1,155", "400 × 1,730"],
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["Title-services revenue", "~0.12M", "~0.35M", "~0.69M"],
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["**Revenue**", "**2.60M (~86M THB)**", "**3.75M (~124M THB)**", "**5.15M (~170M THB)**"],
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["**Revenue**", "**2.28M (~75M THB)**", "**3.65M (~120M THB)**", "**5.41M (~179M THB)**"],
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], widths_mm=[50, 40, 40, 40],
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caption="Estimate. Pressing and title revenue are records × price and titles × fee; the totals are "
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"those of docs/finance/revenue-model.md. A pure-volume plant runs at the low per-title "
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@@ -250,21 +256,22 @@ def blocks():
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"largely pass-through"],
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["Shrink wrap", "0.02 to 0.03", "0.8 to 1.1", "Film"],
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["Energy", "0.12 to 0.23", "3.8 to 7.6", "~1.5 to 2 kWh blended per record at grid/solar mix"],
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["Production labour, launch plant", "**0.12 to 0.23**", "4.0 to 7.6", "13 to 19 direct staff, "
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"3.7M to 5.4M THB a year, over 0.71 to 0.97M records (0.08 to 0.16 on the five-press fleet)"],
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["Production labour, launch plant", "**0.13 to 0.28**", "4.2 to 9.3", "13 to 19 direct staff, "
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"3.7M to 5.4M THB a year, over 0.58 to 0.90M records (0.08 to 0.16 on the five-press fleet)"],
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["Stamper amortisation", "0.03 to 0.12", "1.0 to 4.0", "In-house three-generation set at ~USD 60 "
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"to 150 marginal over 1,000 to 2,000 "
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"pressings"],
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["Maintenance, spares, consumables", "0.12 to 0.23", "3.8 to 7.6", "Estimate"],
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["Reject allowance", "0.12 to 0.17", "3.8 to 5.7", "5 to 10 % reject rate carried by good units"],
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["**Total direct cost, launch plant**", "**~1.34 to 2.65**", "**~44 to 87**", "Central 1.98"],
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["**Total direct cost, launch plant**", "**~1.35 to 2.70**", "**~45 to 89**", "Central 2.00; no "
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"extra cost for specials yet"],
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], widths_mm=[42, 26, 26, 76], font_pt=8.5,
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caption="Estimates, docs/finance/revenue-model.md. THB at 33 per USD."),
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P("**Why labour per record is higher than in the September draft.** Two shifts need the full press, "
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"finishing, galvanics, QC and maintenance crews whether the hall holds three presses or five, so "
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"the direct payroll stays at 3.7M to 5.4M THB a year (113k to 163k USD) while the volume falls from "
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"1.0 to 1.5 million records to 0.71 to 0.97 million. Labour per record rises to **0.12 / 0.16 / "
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"0.23 USD** (favourable / central / adverse), and the direct cost to 1.34 / 1.98 / 2.65 USD. The "
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"1.0 to 1.5 million records to 0.58 to 0.90 million. Labour per record rises to **0.13 / 0.19 / "
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"0.28 USD** (favourable / central / adverse), and the direct cost to 1.35 / 2.00 / 2.70 USD. The "
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"build-up, at northern Thai rates loaded ×1.3 for social security, overtime, bonus and PPE:"),
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T(["Role", "Heads", "THB/month each, loaded"], [
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["Press and finishing operators", "8 to 12", "~19,500"],
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@@ -286,41 +293,44 @@ def blocks():
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"paired high-to-adverse. Depreciation is 8.9M USD over 10 years (adverse), the 216M THB target "
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"(~6.55M USD) over 12.5 years (central), and 4.9M USD over 15 years (favourable)."),
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T(["USD per year, mature", "Adverse", "Central", "Favourable"], [
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["Records", "0.71M", "0.84M", "0.97M"],
|
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["Blended price", "3.50", "4.05", "4.60"],
|
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["Direct cost", "2.65", "1.98", "1.34"],
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["Contribution per record", "0.85", "2.07", "3.26"],
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["Pressing contribution", "0.60M", "1.74M", "3.17M"],
|
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["Records", "0.58M", "0.74M", "0.90M"],
|
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["Blended price, 60 % specials", "3.76", "4.49", "5.27"],
|
||||
["Direct cost", "2.70", "2.00", "1.35"],
|
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["Contribution per record", "1.06", "2.49", "3.92"],
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["Pressing contribution", "0.61M", "1.83M", "3.51M"],
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["Title-services contribution", "0.07M", "0.23M", "0.48M"],
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["**Total contribution**", "**0.67M**", "**1.96M**", "**3.65M**"],
|
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["**Total contribution**", "**0.68M**", "**2.06M**", "**3.99M**"],
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["Cash overheads", "0.45M", "0.33M", "0.20M"],
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["**EBITDA**", "**0.22M**", "**1.63M**", "**3.45M**"],
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["**EBITDA**", "**0.23M**", "**1.73M**", "**3.79M**"],
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["Depreciation", "0.89M", "0.52M", "0.33M"],
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["**Operating profit**", "**-0.67M**", "**1.11M**", "**3.12M**"],
|
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["Revenue", "2.60M (~86M THB)", "3.75M (~124M THB)", "5.15M (~170M THB)"],
|
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["Payback (EBITDA, mature year)", "never", "~4 yr (3.0 to 5.5 on 4.9M to 8.9M)", "~1.4 yr"],
|
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["**Operating profit**", "**-0.66M**", "**1.21M**", "**3.46M**"],
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["Revenue", "2.28M (~75M THB)", "3.65M (~120M THB)", "5.41M (~179M THB)"],
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["Payback (EBITDA, mature year)", "never", "~3.8 yr (2.8 to 5.1 on 4.9M to 8.9M)", "~1.3 yr"],
|
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], widths_mm=[50, 36, 48, 36],
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caption="Estimates, docs/finance/revenue-model.md 'Operating picture of the launch plant (October "
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"2026)'. Title services at 60 to 70 % contribution after lacquers, styli and nickel."),
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CALL("Reading this table honestly", [
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"**The central case works on 216M THB.** EBITDA ~1.6M USD (~54M THB) and operating profit ~1.1M "
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"USD (~37M THB) a year once the plant runs at volume. It breaks even on operating profit at about "
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"**0.3 million records a year, a little over a third of capacity**.",
|
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"**The central case works on 216M THB.** EBITDA ~1.7M USD (~57M THB) and operating profit ~1.2M "
|
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"USD (~40M THB) a year once the plant runs at volume. It breaks even on operating profit at about "
|
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"**0.25 million records a year, about a third of its output**. Against the earlier ~20 % specials "
|
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"share (0.84M records, EBITDA 1.63M) more specials earn a higher price on fewer records.",
|
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"**The adverse case cannot cover depreciation at any volume three presses make.** It would need "
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"~1.5 million records. It stacks the low price, the high cost, the high capital and the high "
|
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"~1.1 million records. It stacks the low price, the high cost, the high capital and the high "
|
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"overheads at once. At the central cost and volume, the price that covers depreciation is only "
|
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"~2.7 to 3.0 USD (~90 to 98 THB) a record, below the low price assumed: price realisation and "
|
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"utilisation decide solvency, not upside.",
|
||||
"**The central margin is too good to trust yet.** A central EBITDA margin of ~43 % is far above "
|
||||
"**The central margin is too good to trust yet.** A central EBITDA margin of ~47 % is far above "
|
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"the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn. The direct cost table counts only per-record consumables and "
|
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"direct payroll and leaves out indirect labour (supervision, planning, warehouse), freight, scrap "
|
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"above the reject allowance and sales commissions. **Treat the adverse column as the honest one "
|
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"until those lines exist.**",
|
||||
"**This is a sensitivity, not a forecast.** The plant and business plan calculator, with its own "
|
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"cost build-up (it adds electric steam heat and the cutting engineer, which this table leaves "
|
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"out), gives at 850k records: revenue 3.75M, EBITDA 1.68M, operating profit 1.13M USD, payback "
|
||||
"4.1 years on a mature year; with a ramp of 35, 70 and 90 % in the first three years, cash "
|
||||
"payback in year ~5.7 and ~13 % IRR over ten years, pre-tax and pre-financing (estimates). "
|
||||
"out) and the team's faster Duplex planning rate, at which the launch plant is not Duplex-limited, "
|
||||
"gives at 850k records and 60 % specials: revenue 4.14M, EBITDA 2.07M, operating profit 1.52M "
|
||||
"USD, payback 3.3 years on a mature year; with a ramp of 35, 70 and 90 % in the first three "
|
||||
"years, cash payback in year ~4.8 and ~18 % IRR over ten years, pre-tax and pre-financing "
|
||||
"(estimates). "
|
||||
"Not modelled here: cassette and CD-R lines, stamper supply to "
|
||||
"other plants, dropshipping fees, and the ramp year. BOI tax exemptions shield part of early-year "
|
||||
"profits where there are any.",
|
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@@ -571,8 +581,9 @@ def blocks():
|
||||
"validation gate: regional label conversations, the artist platform's calculator as an interest "
|
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"list, a second Thai data point; no large spending before it clears"],
|
||||
["High", "Utilisation and price", "The cost structure is mostly fixed; the adverse case loses "
|
||||
"money even at the full volume of three presses (it needs ~1.5M records to cover depreciation)",
|
||||
"Central breaks even at ~0.3M records; commission in sequence; growth options wait for demand; "
|
||||
"money even at the full volume of three presses (it needs ~1.1M records to cover depreciation); "
|
||||
"at 60 % specials the Duplex rate and the extra cost of specials decide volume and margin",
|
||||
"Central breaks even at ~0.25M records; commission in sequence; growth options wait for demand; "
|
||||
"treat the adverse column as the honest one"],
|
||||
["High", "Galvanics and cutting on the critical path", "No paying release until the cutting room "
|
||||
"and galvanics make good stampers; a slow start there delays every press", "Commission the "
|
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|
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@@ -114,7 +114,12 @@ automated candidate). What it means:
|
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to ~1.8 MW of cooling, so boiler, chiller and grid connection would be a
|
||||
phase of their own ([scale](../scale.md)). The Payap scenario model in
|
||||
FreeCAD still draws the earlier layout (two Duplex bays and eleven
|
||||
Classic positions).
|
||||
Classic positions). The specials share is planned at 60 % and more
|
||||
([revenue model](../finance/revenue-model.md)); specials run only on the
|
||||
Duplex systems, so at that share the Duplex presses set the output of
|
||||
the launch plant and of the full hall, and a hall balanced by output
|
||||
would give them ~70 to 75 % of the floor (estimate,
|
||||
[scale](../scale.md#production-capacity)).
|
||||
- **Capacity** at maturity stays at ~1.0 to 1.5 million records a year on
|
||||
two shifts, the range the [revenue model](../finance/revenue-model.md)
|
||||
uses: four semi-automatic presses at 60 to 80 records an hour (estimate)
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -451,7 +451,18 @@ standard/color mix:
|
||||
- **Blended pressing price: ~3.50 to 4.60 USD per record**
|
||||
(~115 to 150 THB) — pressing, labels, inner sleeve, assembly into
|
||||
customer-supplied or locally-made jacket; deluxe packaging passed
|
||||
through at cost plus margin
|
||||
through at cost plus margin. That blend holds at ~20 % specials
|
||||
(standard 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25 USD plus the 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 colour and
|
||||
splatter premium on a fifth of the records).
|
||||
- **Specials share: 60 % and more (decided October 2026).** The plant
|
||||
focuses on special prints (splatter, marble, colour effects), not mono
|
||||
colours, so the plan takes 60 % specials: the blend rises to **~3.76 /
|
||||
4.49 / 5.27 USD** (adverse / central / favourable). Specials run only
|
||||
on the Duplex systems (the Classic has one built-in extruder), which
|
||||
makes the Duplex the launch plant's bottleneck (below). The direct cost
|
||||
table does not yet carry what specials cost extra (coloured compound,
|
||||
colour-change purge, trim that only goes back into black), so the gain
|
||||
is an upper bound until the compound quotes arrive
|
||||
- **Per-title services: ~580 to 1,730 USD per title** (~19,000 to 57,000
|
||||
THB) for mastering, cutting, stampers, test pressings, at roughly 300
|
||||
to 600 titles/yr at full capacity
|
||||
@@ -580,16 +591,26 @@ base salaries in that way.
|
||||
The plant now launches with one Newbilt Duplex system and one Classic,
|
||||
with cutting and galvanics in-house from the start
|
||||
([total investment](total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)). Three
|
||||
presses make ~0.71 to 0.97 million records a year on two shifts
|
||||
([scale](../scale.md#production-capacity)), against 1.0 to 1.5 million for
|
||||
the five-press fleet the full-capacity table below was built for. Same
|
||||
method and the same three cases, with these changes (all estimates):
|
||||
presses make ~0.71 to 0.97 million records a year on two shifts at the
|
||||
earlier ~20 % specials share ([scale](../scale.md#production-capacity)),
|
||||
against 1.0 to 1.5 million for the five-press fleet the full-capacity
|
||||
table below was built for. Re-based on **60 % specials** (October 2026),
|
||||
same method and the same three cases, with these changes (all estimates):
|
||||
|
||||
- **Volume** 0.71M / 0.84M / 0.97M records a year.
|
||||
- **Volume 0.58M / 0.74M / 0.90M records a year.** Specials run only on
|
||||
the Duplex system, so at 60 % its two presses (60 to 80 records an hour
|
||||
each, estimate) set the output: 120 to 160 specials an hour carry 80 to
|
||||
107 standard records on the Classic, which then runs at about two
|
||||
thirds of its ~128 an hour. At the team's planning rate (3 a minute per
|
||||
Duplex system) the launch plant stays balanced at ~0.94 million, which
|
||||
is what the [calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) shows.
|
||||
- **Blended price** 3.76 / 4.49 / 5.27 USD: standard 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25
|
||||
plus the specials premium 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 on 60 % of the records.
|
||||
- **Direct payroll** stays at 3.7M to 5.4M THB a year (two shifts still
|
||||
need the press, finishing, galvanics, QC and maintenance crews), so
|
||||
labour per record rises to 0.12 / 0.16 / 0.23 USD and the direct cost to
|
||||
1.34 / 1.98 / 2.65 USD.
|
||||
labour per record rises to 0.13 / 0.19 / 0.28 USD and the direct cost to
|
||||
1.35 / 2.00 / 2.70 USD, with no extra cost for specials yet (see the
|
||||
pricing assumptions).
|
||||
- **Title services**: 200 / 300 / 400 titles at 580 / 1,155 / 1,730 USD,
|
||||
60 to 70 % contribution after lacquers, styli and nickel. The middle
|
||||
price is the per-title fee of the artist demos (37,836 THB).
|
||||
@@ -601,34 +622,41 @@ method and the same three cases, with these changes (all estimates):
|
||||
|
||||
| USD/yr | Adverse | Central | Favourable |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Records | 0.71M | 0.84M | 0.97M |
|
||||
| Blended price | 3.50 | 4.05 | 4.60 |
|
||||
| Direct cost | 2.65 | 1.98 | 1.34 |
|
||||
| Contribution per record | 0.85 | 2.07 | 3.26 |
|
||||
| Pressing contribution | 0.60M | 1.74M | 3.17M |
|
||||
| Records | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M |
|
||||
| Blended price (60 % specials) | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 |
|
||||
| Direct cost | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 |
|
||||
| Contribution per record | 1.06 | 2.49 | 3.92 |
|
||||
| Pressing contribution | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M |
|
||||
| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M |
|
||||
| **Total contribution** | **0.67M** | **1.96M** | **3.65M** |
|
||||
| **Total contribution** | **0.68M** | **2.06M** | **3.99M** |
|
||||
| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
|
||||
| **EBITDA** | **0.22M** | **1.63M** | **3.45M** |
|
||||
| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** |
|
||||
| Depreciation | 0.89M | 0.52M | 0.33M |
|
||||
| **Operating profit** | **-0.67M** | **1.11M** | **3.12M** |
|
||||
| Revenue | 2.60M (~86M THB) | 3.75M (~124M THB) | 5.15M (~170M THB) |
|
||||
| Payback on the launch capital (EBITDA, mature year) | never | ~4 yr (3.0 to 5.5 on 4.9M to 8.9M) | ~1.4 yr |
|
||||
| **Operating profit** | **-0.66M** | **1.21M** | **3.46M** |
|
||||
| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) |
|
||||
| Payback on the launch capital (EBITDA, mature year) | never | ~3.8 yr (2.8 to 5.1 on 4.9M to 8.9M) | ~1.3 yr |
|
||||
|
||||
At the earlier ~20 % specials share the same table read 0.71 / 0.84 /
|
||||
0.97M records, revenue 2.60 / 3.75 / 5.15M and EBITDA 0.22 / 1.63 /
|
||||
3.45M: more specials earn a higher price on fewer records, and the
|
||||
central EBITDA gains ~0.1M USD a year (more if the Duplex presses run
|
||||
faster than 60 to 80 an hour, less once specials carry their extra
|
||||
cost).
|
||||
|
||||
What it says:
|
||||
|
||||
- **The central case works on 216M THB**: EBITDA ~1.6M USD (~54M THB) a
|
||||
year and operating profit ~1.1M USD (~37M THB) once the plant runs at
|
||||
volume, and it breaks even on operating profit at about **0.3 million
|
||||
records a year, a little over a third of capacity**.
|
||||
- **The central case works on 216M THB**: EBITDA ~1.7M USD (~57M THB) a
|
||||
year and operating profit ~1.2M USD (~40M THB) once the plant runs at
|
||||
volume, and it breaks even on operating profit at about **0.25 million
|
||||
records a year, about a third of its output**.
|
||||
- **The adverse corner cannot pay for itself at any volume the three
|
||||
presses make**: it would need ~1.5 million records to cover
|
||||
presses make**: it would need ~1.1 million records to cover
|
||||
depreciation. It stacks the low price, the high cost, the high capital
|
||||
and the high overheads at once; at the central cost and volume the
|
||||
price that covers depreciation is only ~2.7 to 3.0 USD (~90 to 98 THB)
|
||||
a record, below the low price assumed.
|
||||
- **The caveats of the full-capacity table hold here too**: the central
|
||||
EBITDA margin (~43 %) is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn,
|
||||
EBITDA margin (~47 %) is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn,
|
||||
because the direct cost table leaves out indirect labour, freight,
|
||||
scrap above the allowance and commissions. Price realisation and
|
||||
utilisation decide the result, and the ramp year is not in this table
|
||||
@@ -641,7 +669,10 @@ What it says:
|
||||
## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
|
||||
|
||||
The fleet this table describes (two Duplex systems and a Classic) is now
|
||||
a growth option; the launch plant is in the section above.
|
||||
a growth option; the launch plant is in the section above. This table
|
||||
keeps the earlier ~20 % specials share and the earlier capex; it is not
|
||||
re-based (at 60 % specials the five presses are not Duplex-limited, so
|
||||
the volume holds and the blend rises as in the launch table).
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Built from the components above rather than asserted. The
|
||||
@@ -704,7 +735,10 @@ profits where there are any; see [boi.md](../boi.md).
|
||||
loss-making at full volume
|
||||
- **Mix**: color/splatter and boutique runs carry 20 to 50% price premiums
|
||||
and suit the semi-automatic line; the title-services line (mastering,
|
||||
cutting, stampers) has software-like margins once the rooms exist
|
||||
cutting, stampers) has software-like margins once the rooms exist. At
|
||||
the planned 60 %+ specials the Duplex presses' real rate decides the
|
||||
volume: each extra record an hour on the Duplex adds about 1.7 to the
|
||||
plant's hourly output at that share
|
||||
- **Regional position**: an Asia-Pacific full-service plant competes on
|
||||
turnaround and freight against EU/US plants for regional labels; pricing
|
||||
power there is unproven and is the single biggest assumption in this
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -658,7 +658,7 @@ html[data-theme=light] .iso-svg .iso-glint { display: inline; }
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="hint">The output is what this fleet makes at the set effectiveness and specials share.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<label class="row" style="margin-top:14px"><span>Splatter and specials, share of output</span><b id="specV"></b></label>
|
||||
<label class="row" style="margin-top:14px"><span>Splatter and specials, share of output<br><small>plan: 60 % and more; specials run only on Duplex systems</small></span><b id="specV"></b></label>
|
||||
<input type="range" id="spec" min="0" max="100" step="1" aria-label="Specials share">
|
||||
<p class="hint">Splatter, multi-colour and effect records run only on the Duplex, with
|
||||
its EX 35 colour extruder (Newbilt recommends the Duplex for splatter). Black and
|
||||
@@ -2836,7 +2836,8 @@ html[data-theme=light] .iso-svg .iso-glint { display: inline; }
|
||||
"use strict";
|
||||
// ---------------------------------------------------------------- inputs
|
||||
const S0 = {
|
||||
mode: "target", target: 850000, spec: 20, grow: "classic", dMin: 1, cMin: 1,
|
||||
// specials share 60 % (user, October 2026: the plant focuses on special prints, 60 %+)
|
||||
mode: "target", target: 850000, spec: 60, grow: "classic", dMin: 1, cMin: 1,
|
||||
dFleet: 1, cFleet: 1, shifts: 2, hrs: 8, days: 300, eff: 65, rateD: 3, rateC: 2, specF: 100,
|
||||
priceStd: 3.8, premSpec: 1.15, titleFee: 1155, cur: "USD", boi: "on", exportShare: 70, capexEnd: "mid",
|
||||
// plant configuration (defaults = the launch plant, total-investment.md October 2026)
|
||||
|
||||
+13
-2
@@ -9,9 +9,9 @@ page as real quotes and the site decision land.
|
||||
|
||||
| Phase | Fleet | Rough output |
|
||||
|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Launch plant (decided October 2026) | 2 semi-auto (Duplex system 1: EX 50 main + EX 35 colour extruder) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), commissioned in sequence, 2 shifts at volume | ~0.71 to 0.97 million records/yr |
|
||||
| Launch plant (decided October 2026) | 2 semi-auto (Duplex system 1: EX 50 main + EX 35 colour extruder) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), commissioned in sequence, 2 shifts at volume | ~0.58 to 0.90 million records/yr at the planned 60 % specials (Duplex-limited); ~0.71 to 0.97 million at ~20 % |
|
||||
| Growth option: second Duplex | 4 semi-auto (two Duplex systems) + 1 Classic, 2 shifts; room reserved, not in the investment | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr |
|
||||
| Full hall (option) | 4 Duplex systems + 6 Classics, the hall laid out 60/40 for Duplex, 2 shifts | ~3.6 to 4.7 million records/yr (estimate) |
|
||||
| Full hall (option) | 4 Duplex systems + 6 Classics, the hall laid out 60/40 for Duplex, 2 shifts | ~2.3 to 3.6 million records/yr at 60 % specials, ~3.6 to 4.7 million at ~20 % (estimate) |
|
||||
|
||||
The [press fleet calculator](fleet-calculator.html) sizes the fleet for
|
||||
any yearly output and specials share, with the people and utilities it
|
||||
@@ -53,6 +53,17 @@ presses and six Classics give 1,250 to 1,410 records/hour gross, ~3.6 to
|
||||
[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md) nor the investment includes
|
||||
them.
|
||||
|
||||
**Specials share 60 % and more (October 2026).** Specials run only on the
|
||||
Duplex systems, so at 60 % they set the output wherever the Duplex makes
|
||||
less than 60 % of the fleet's records: the launch plant drops to ~0.58 to
|
||||
0.90 million (the Classic runs at about two thirds load) and the full
|
||||
hall to ~2.3 to 3.6 million (the six Classics about half loaded). The
|
||||
five-press fleet is not affected. At the planning rates of the
|
||||
[calculator](fleet-calculator.html) (3 a minute per Duplex system) the
|
||||
launch plant stays balanced at ~0.94 million. A hall balanced by output
|
||||
at 60 % specials would give the Duplex systems ~70 to 75 % of the floor
|
||||
(estimate), e.g. five Duplex bays and four Classic positions.
|
||||
|
||||
**The 60–70% effectiveness assumption is worth challenging, but not yet
|
||||
changing.** Newbilt publishes ≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime for the Classic
|
||||
12" automatic at a 28 s cycle (~128 records/h), and quotes ~30 s average
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in new issue
Block a user