Specials share 60 %+: revenue model, calculator and business plan re-based
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User (October 2026): "lets say 60+% special prints" (the plant focuses on
special prints, not mono colours).

- Specials (splatter, marble, colour effects) run only on the Duplex
  systems, so at 60 % the Duplex sets the launch plant's output: ~0.58 /
  0.74 / 0.90M records a year (was 0.71 / 0.84 / 0.97 at ~20 %), the
  Classic at about two thirds load. Full 60/40 hall: ~2.3 to 3.6M (Duplex
  -limited, Classics about half loaded); five-press fleet unchanged. A
  hall balanced by output at 60 % would give Duplex ~70 to 75 % of the
  floor (estimate; noted, not applied).
- Blended price 3.76 / 4.49 / 5.27 USD (standard 3.40 / 3.80 / 4.25 plus
  the 0.60 / 1.15 / 1.70 specials premium on 60 %). Launch operating
  picture: revenue 2.28 / 3.65 / 5.41M USD, EBITDA 0.23 / 1.73 / 3.79M,
  operating profit -0.66 / 1.21 / 3.46M, payback ~3.8 yr central,
  break-even ~0.25M records; adverse needs ~1.1M records to cover
  depreciation. Specials' extra direct cost (coloured compound, purge,
  trim only into black) is not in the cost table yet: flagged as an
  upper bound until compound quotes.
- Calculator default specials share 20 -> 60 % (planning rates keep the
  launch plant balanced at 850k: revenue 4.14M, EBITDA 2.07M, payback
  3.3 yr, cash payback year ~4.8, IRR ~18 %).
- revenue-model.md, scale.md, pressing-line.md, README; business plan
  draft 0.2 rebuilt (sections 1, 4, 9, risks).

Checks: calculator regression 0 fails, no page errors, node --check on
all scripts; PDF 47 pages, table of contents filled; no em dashes added.
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grabowski committed 2026-10-16 20:45:39 +07:00
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@@ -284,9 +284,10 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
the spec sheet for asking a contractor to price the phase 1 buildings
and site works, with quantities taken from the parametric BIM model
- [Revenue model](docs/finance/revenue-model.md): pricing, direct cost
and margin per record, the launch plant's operating picture (central
revenue ~3.75M USD a year, EBITDA ~1.6M, payback ~4 years on 216M THB;
the adverse case loses money), the five-press table, and the levers and
and margin per record, the launch plant's operating picture at the
planned 60 % specials (central revenue ~3.65M USD a year on ~0.74M
records, EBITDA ~1.7M, payback ~3.8 years on 216M THB; the adverse case
loses money), the five-press table, and the levers and
caveats behind the numbers
- [Business plan](docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan.docx): the
investor-facing roll-up of everything above, built from