Solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data (October 2026)

- Rooftop PV, 300 kWp (size still illustrative): 20 to 26 THB/W installed
  with the Deye hybrid inverters, 6.0M to 7.8M THB (was 25 to 35 THB/W,
  7.5M to 10.5M). Sources in the utilities CSV: DEDE Thailand PV Status
  report (Mahidol survey: 22 to 25 THB/W for factory systems of 10 kW to
  1 MW, 2023), CapSolar 2026 (20 to 25 under 1 MWp), Saimai Solar's list
  (300 kW for 5.4M THB), Deye hybrid inverter retail (160,500 THB per
  50 kW).
- Battery 271 kWh, now installed: 2.0M to 3.5M THB (was the bare Gobel
  list price, 1.4M to 2.0M, which matches DEDE's 5,000 to 7,000 THB/kWh
  for LiFePO4); adds enclosure, fire protection, controls and installation,
  below CapSolar's 12,000 to 15,000 THB/kWh for a fully installed factory
  BESS because the hybrid inverters do the conversion (estimate).
- Utilities baseline 27.57M to 47.50M THB; launch plant ~160M / 222M /
  283M THB with contingency; Plan B ~208M (~149M to 266M), ~31M more than
  Plan A; Plan A's total unchanged, its solar lever ~9.7M. PV payback
  ~3.8 to 5.4 years (sustainability.md). Calculator, README, roadmap,
  revenue model and both business plan versions (renders included)
  updated.

docs/finance/total-investment.md

@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
 | Cutting room: Sillitoe SDMS, spare cutterhead and support, mastering console and chain, monitoring, room build-out | 200k – 350k | 6.6M – 11.6M | SDMS list price USD 125k (ex tax and shipping); the rest estimate |
 | Metrology and QC stack (XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler, inline vision on three presses, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.6M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable ([quality automation](../quality-automation.md)) |
 | PVC lab, day-one tier | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md) |
-| Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking | 863k – 1,477k | 28.5M – 48.7M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three |
+| Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking | 835k – 1,439k | 27.6M – 47.5M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three; solar at 20 to 26 THB/W installed and the battery installed (Thai market prices checked October 2026, sources in the CSV) |
 | Building ~1,500 m² plus civil and site works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.3M | estimate at 12,000 – 20,000 THB/m² plus ~20 % site works; soil is the main variable |
 | Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
 | Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
@@ -61,9 +61,9 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
 | Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication | 55k – 190k | 1.8M – 6.3M | estimate, business plan sections 4.8 and 4.9 |
 | Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its quoted 5 days) | 150k – 300k | 5.0M – 9.9M | estimate |
 | Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent | 135k – 290k | 4.5M – 9.6M | estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase |
-| Subtotal | ~4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M | midpoint ~5.87M USD, ~194M THB |
-| Contingency 15 % | ~0.64M – 1.13M | ~21M – 37M | |
-| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.9M – 8.6M USD** | **~161M – 285M THB** | midpoint ~6.76M USD, ~223M THB |
+| Subtotal | ~4.22M – 7.47M | ~139M – 246M | midpoint ~5.84M USD, ~193M THB |
+| Contingency 15 % | ~0.63M – 1.12M | ~21M – 37M | |
+| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.85M – 8.6M USD** | **~160M – 283M THB** | midpoint ~6.72M USD, ~222M THB |
 
 Not in the total: a **reserve for the ramp-up** (staff hired before first
 revenue, overheads until volume covers them; ~10M to 20M THB, estimate),
@@ -153,8 +153,8 @@ reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
 
 | Plan A: launch plant with six levers | Saves | Subtotal after it |
 |---|---|---|
-| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~193.8M THB (~5.87M USD) |
-| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~10.7M | ~183.1M |
+| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~192.8M THB (~5.84M USD) |
+| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~9.7M | ~183.1M |
 | Metrology launch tier: XRF, inline vision and audio station at launch; laser confocal and wide-area profiler (USD 180k to 350k) bought from revenue | ~8.8M | ~174.4M |
 | Visitor corridor built later; no public tours at first | ~3.6M | ~170.8M |
 | Cassette and CD-R duplication later | ~4.0M | ~166.8M |
@@ -165,12 +165,12 @@ reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
 
 | Plan B: the launch plant, everything in | USD | THB |
 |---|---|---|
-| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar and battery ~10.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~32M THB at the midpoint) | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M, **~193.8M (~5.87M USD)** at the midpoint |
+| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar and battery ~9.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~31M THB at the midpoint) | 4.22M – 7.47M | ~139M – 246M, **~192.8M (~5.84M USD)** at the midpoint |
 | Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
-| **Plan B** | | **~209M THB (~6.33M USD): ~210M**, ~150M to 268M from the low to the high end of every block |
+| **Plan B** | | **~208M THB (~6.30M USD): ~210M**, ~149M to 266M from the low to the high end of every block |
 
-Plan B costs ~32M THB (~18 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
-stays within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (its high end, ~268M, does
+Plan B costs ~31M THB (~18 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
+stays within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (its high end, ~266M, does
 not). It keeps what Plan A leases or defers:
 owned solar and battery (and with them the BOI solar measure), the full
 metrology stack from the first release, the visitor corridor and tours
@@ -192,7 +192,7 @@ both as presets.
   and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).
 
 **What decides between them:** not demand, since both make the same
-records, but whether the investor funds ~32M THB more at launch for what
+records, but whether the investor funds ~31M THB more at launch for what
 Plan A leases or buys from revenue. On the modelled numbers Plan B's
 extra earns nothing (same EBITDA, more depreciation, a longer payback);
 its case rests on what the operating table leaves out: the BOI solar