Solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data (October 2026)
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- Rooftop PV, 300 kWp (size still illustrative): 20 to 26 THB/W installed
  with the Deye hybrid inverters, 6.0M to 7.8M THB (was 25 to 35 THB/W,
  7.5M to 10.5M). Sources in the utilities CSV: DEDE Thailand PV Status
  report (Mahidol survey: 22 to 25 THB/W for factory systems of 10 kW to
  1 MW, 2023), CapSolar 2026 (20 to 25 under 1 MWp), Saimai Solar's list
  (300 kW for 5.4M THB), Deye hybrid inverter retail (160,500 THB per
  50 kW).
- Battery 271 kWh, now installed: 2.0M to 3.5M THB (was the bare Gobel
  list price, 1.4M to 2.0M, which matches DEDE's 5,000 to 7,000 THB/kWh
  for LiFePO4); adds enclosure, fire protection, controls and installation,
  below CapSolar's 12,000 to 15,000 THB/kWh for a fully installed factory
  BESS because the hybrid inverters do the conversion (estimate).
- Utilities baseline 27.57M to 47.50M THB; launch plant ~160M / 222M /
  283M THB with contingency; Plan B ~208M (~149M to 266M), ~31M more than
  Plan A; Plan A's total unchanged, its solar lever ~9.7M. PV payback
  ~3.8 to 5.4 years (sustainability.md). Calculator, README, roadmap,
  revenue model and both business plan versions (renders included)
  updated.
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grabowski committed 2026-10-17 16:41:14 +07:00
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@@ -671,7 +671,7 @@ What it says:
The business plan comes in two versions
([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)):
**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers) and
**Plan B** (~209M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
**Plan B** (~208M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve. Both run the
same three presses, so volume, price, direct cost, title services and
overheads are those of the launch-plant table above; only the
@@ -681,12 +681,12 @@ depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low end (3.56M USD) over 15. The
solar PPA adds its power price to the energy line (~0.03M USD a year in
the calculator), not shown here.
- **Plan B**: 7.50M USD over 10 years, 5.87M over 12.5, 4.24M over 15.
- **Plan B**: 7.47M USD over 10 years, 5.84M over 12.5, 4.22M over 15.
Its owned solar saves the PPA power bill; cassette and CD-R sales, tours
and the Payap programmes it opens from the start are not modelled.
- **Payback** is counted on the whole plan price including the ramp-up
reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.55M / 6.33M /
8.11M USD from the low to the high end).
reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.52M / 6.30M /
8.07M USD from the low to the high end).
| USD/yr | A adverse | A central | A favourable | B adverse | B central | B favourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
@@ -700,7 +700,7 @@ depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.75M | 0.47M | 0.28M |
| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **-0.52M** | **1.26M** | **3.51M** |
| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) |
| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~35 yr | ~3.7 yr (2.6 to 4.7) | ~1.2 yr |
| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~35 yr | ~3.6 yr (2.6 to 4.7) | ~1.2 yr |
What it says:
@@ -712,7 +712,7 @@ What it says:
corner loses more (~1.1 million records needed to cover depreciation).
At the central cost and volume the price that covers its depreciation
is ~2.8 USD (~91 THB) a record.
- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~32M THB earns nothing**: the same
- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~31M THB earns nothing**: the same
EBITDA, more depreciation and a longer payback. Its case rests on what
the table leaves out: the BOI solar measure on the owned array, the
PPA power bill it avoids, full stamper metrology from the first