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Solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data (October 2026)
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- Rooftop PV, 300 kWp (size still illustrative): 20 to 26 THB/W installed
  with the Deye hybrid inverters, 6.0M to 7.8M THB (was 25 to 35 THB/W,
  7.5M to 10.5M). Sources in the utilities CSV: DEDE Thailand PV Status
  report (Mahidol survey: 22 to 25 THB/W for factory systems of 10 kW to
  1 MW, 2023), CapSolar 2026 (20 to 25 under 1 MWp), Saimai Solar's list
  (300 kW for 5.4M THB), Deye hybrid inverter retail (160,500 THB per
  50 kW).
- Battery 271 kWh, now installed: 2.0M to 3.5M THB (was the bare Gobel
  list price, 1.4M to 2.0M, which matches DEDE's 5,000 to 7,000 THB/kWh
  for LiFePO4); adds enclosure, fire protection, controls and installation,
  below CapSolar's 12,000 to 15,000 THB/kWh for a fully installed factory
  BESS because the hybrid inverters do the conversion (estimate).
- Utilities baseline 27.57M to 47.50M THB; launch plant ~160M / 222M /
  283M THB with contingency; Plan B ~208M (~149M to 266M), ~31M more than
  Plan A; Plan A's total unchanged, its solar lever ~9.7M. PV payback
  ~3.8 to 5.4 years (sustainability.md). Calculator, README, roadmap,
  revenue model and both business plan versions (renders included)
  updated.
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grabowski committed 2026-10-17 16:41:14 +07:00
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docs/finance/revenue-model.md
+6 -6
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@@ -671,7 +671,7 @@ What it says:
The business plan comes in two versions
([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)):
**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers) and
**Plan B** (~209M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
**Plan B** (~208M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve. Both run the
same three presses, so volume, price, direct cost, title services and
overheads are those of the launch-plant table above; only the
@@ -681,12 +681,12 @@ depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low end (3.56M USD) over 15. The
solar PPA adds its power price to the energy line (~0.03M USD a year in
the calculator), not shown here.
- **Plan B**: 7.50M USD over 10 years, 5.87M over 12.5, 4.24M over 15.
- **Plan B**: 7.47M USD over 10 years, 5.84M over 12.5, 4.22M over 15.
Its owned solar saves the PPA power bill; cassette and CD-R sales, tours
and the Payap programmes it opens from the start are not modelled.
- **Payback** is counted on the whole plan price including the ramp-up
reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.55M / 6.33M /
8.11M USD from the low to the high end).
reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.52M / 6.30M /
8.07M USD from the low to the high end).
| USD/yr | A adverse | A central | A favourable | B adverse | B central | B favourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
@@ -700,7 +700,7 @@ depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.75M | 0.47M | 0.28M |
| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **-0.52M** | **1.26M** | **3.51M** |
| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) |
| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~35 yr | ~3.7 yr (2.6 to 4.7) | ~1.2 yr |
| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~35 yr | ~3.6 yr (2.6 to 4.7) | ~1.2 yr |
What it says:
@@ -712,7 +712,7 @@ What it says:
corner loses more (~1.1 million records needed to cover depreciation).
At the central cost and volume the price that covers its depreciation
is ~2.8 USD (~91 THB) a record.
- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~32M THB earns nothing**: the same
- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~31M THB earns nothing**: the same
EBITDA, more depreciation and a longer payback. Its case rests on what
the table leaves out: the BOI solar measure on the owned array, the
PPA power bill it avoids, full stamper metrology from the first
docs/finance/total-investment.md
+11 -11
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@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
| Cutting room: Sillitoe SDMS, spare cutterhead and support, mastering console and chain, monitoring, room build-out | 200k – 350k | 6.6M – 11.6M | SDMS list price USD 125k (ex tax and shipping); the rest estimate |
| Metrology and QC stack (XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler, inline vision on three presses, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.6M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable ([quality automation](../quality-automation.md)) |
| PVC lab, day-one tier | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md) |
| Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking | 863k – 1,477k | 28.5M – 48.7M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three |
| Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking | 835k – 1,439k | 27.6M – 47.5M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three; solar at 20 to 26 THB/W installed and the battery installed (Thai market prices checked October 2026, sources in the CSV) |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil and site works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.3M | estimate at 12,000 – 20,000 THB/m² plus ~20 % site works; soil is the main variable |
| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
@@ -61,9 +61,9 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
| Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication | 55k – 190k | 1.8M – 6.3M | estimate, business plan sections 4.8 and 4.9 |
| Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its quoted 5 days) | 150k – 300k | 5.0M – 9.9M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent | 135k – 290k | 4.5M – 9.6M | estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase |
| Subtotal | ~4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M | midpoint ~5.87M USD, ~194M THB |
| Contingency 15 % | ~0.64M – 1.13M | ~21M – 37M | |
| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.9M – 8.6M USD** | **~161M – 285M THB** | midpoint ~6.76M USD, ~223M THB |
| Subtotal | ~4.22M – 7.47M | ~139M – 246M | midpoint ~5.84M USD, ~193M THB |
| Contingency 15 % | ~0.63M – 1.12M | ~21M – 37M | |
| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.85M – 8.6M USD** | **~160M – 283M THB** | midpoint ~6.72M USD, ~222M THB |
Not in the total: a **reserve for the ramp-up** (staff hired before first
revenue, overheads until volume covers them; ~10M to 20M THB, estimate),
@@ -153,8 +153,8 @@ reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
| Plan A: launch plant with six levers | Saves | Subtotal after it |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~193.8M THB (~5.87M USD) |
| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~10.7M | ~183.1M |
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~192.8M THB (~5.84M USD) |
| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~9.7M | ~183.1M |
| Metrology launch tier: XRF, inline vision and audio station at launch; laser confocal and wide-area profiler (USD 180k to 350k) bought from revenue | ~8.8M | ~174.4M |
| Visitor corridor built later; no public tours at first | ~3.6M | ~170.8M |
| Cassette and CD-R duplication later | ~4.0M | ~166.8M |
@@ -165,12 +165,12 @@ reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
| Plan B: the launch plant, everything in | USD | THB |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar and battery ~10.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~32M THB at the midpoint) | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M, **~193.8M (~5.87M USD)** at the midpoint |
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar and battery ~9.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~31M THB at the midpoint) | 4.22M – 7.47M | ~139M – 246M, **~192.8M (~5.84M USD)** at the midpoint |
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan B** | | **~209M THB (~6.33M USD): ~210M**, ~150M to 268M from the low to the high end of every block |
| **Plan B** | | **~208M THB (~6.30M USD): ~210M**, ~149M to 266M from the low to the high end of every block |
Plan B costs ~32M THB (~18 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
stays within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (its high end, ~268M, does
Plan B costs ~31M THB (~18 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
stays within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (its high end, ~266M, does
not). It keeps what Plan A leases or defers:
owned solar and battery (and with them the BOI solar measure), the full
metrology stack from the first release, the visitor corridor and tours
@@ -192,7 +192,7 @@ both as presets.
and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).
**What decides between them:** not demand, since both make the same
records, but whether the investor funds ~32M THB more at launch for what
records, but whether the investor funds ~31M THB more at launch for what
Plan A leases or buys from revenue. On the modelled numbers Plan B's
extra earns nothing (same EBITDA, more depreciation, a longer payback);
its case rests on what the operating table leaves out: the BOI solar
docs/finance/utilities-investment.csv
+3 -3
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@@ -13,6 +13,6 @@ water,Galvanics ZLD evaporator,"Small MVR or low-temp vacuum evaporator for plat
storage,Pallet racking and shelving,"100-200 pallet positions selective/heavy-duty (beams sized 1000-1500 kg/pallet, records are dense) + archive and finished-goods shelving, installed","Jenbunjerd; LPI Rack Range (Thailand), Bangkok/Samut Prakan, racking and office mobile shelving; local fabricators (Sahawatthanakit, UPR, SD Shelf); SSI Schaefer (premium)",800000,1500000,published list prices + engineering estimate,SSI Schaefer premium tier ~1.5-3M for same scope; ~1000-2000 THB per pallet position at local tier
hvac,Whole-factory HVAC,"~1500 m2 at 20-26 C, 35-60% RH, ePM1/F7-F9 filtration sized for burning-season PM2.5, ducting and controls","Daikin Thailand; Trane; Mitsubishi Electric; Carrier; filtration: Camfil Thailand, AAF",7500000,15000000,engineering estimate at 5000-10000 THB/m2,"RH low end of 35% is aggressive for tropics and drives desiccant cost; if 45-60% RH acceptable, cost drops materially"
hvac,Clean-room-grade zone adder,"Cutting room + galvanics clean room, ~2 x 60 m2, ISO 7/8 with HEPA terminals, positive pressure, airlocks",Same HVAC vendors + clean-room contractors; Camfil HEPA,1200000,3400000,engineering estimate at 10000-28000 THB/m2 adder,Applied only to the two tight zones
solar,PV rooftop EPC (illustrative 300 kWp),"Turnkey C&I rooftop EPC incl. Deye hybrid inverters, at 25000-35000 THB/kWp",Solar Nicolo (Deye tier-1 distributor); Banpu NEXT; SCG Cleanergy; Sermsang; local Chiang Mai installers,7500000,10500000,market rate per kWp; size illustrative,"Final kWp open until site selection; PEA TOU 3.2.2 plus Ft (Sep-Dec 2026): self-consumed PV worth ~3.7 THB/kWh, ~4.5-7 yr payback (sustainability.md, grid tariff)"
solar,Battery stack 271 kWh (Gobel),"GP-SRA-HV314 HV LiFePO4 rack, 15 x 18 kWh packs, direct from Shenzhen, 50-60 day lead",Gobel Power (no Thai distributor; integration by solar EPC),1400000,2030000,vendor listed price USD 39900-58000 at ~35 THB/USD,Confirm Deye BMS protocol compatibility and that the EPC warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus; certs (UN38.3/IEC 62619/CE) to be requested
total,BASELINE TOTAL,Electric steam bank (2 modules) + oil-injected air + chiller bank (2 modules) + softener + loop treatment + local racking + HVAC + clean zones + 300 kWp solar + 271 kWh BESS,,28470000,48730000,sum of baseline rows,"Launch plant, one Duplex system and one Classic (October 2026; was 30.07M-51.33M THB for five presses, 23.98M-41.63M for one Duplex); ~750k-1280k EUR at 38 THB/EUR; excludes options rows and the galvanics water rows (ZLD, DI), which total-investment.md carries with galvanics; all figures budgetary +/- 30%, get RFQs before BOI"
solar,PV rooftop EPC (illustrative 300 kWp),"Turnkey C&I rooftop EPC incl. Deye hybrid inverters, at 20000-26000 THB/kWp",Solar Nicolo (Deye tier-1 distributor); Banpu NEXT; SCG Cleanergy; Sermsang; CapSolar; local Chiang Mai installers,6000000,7800000,"market rate per kWp (October 2026 check): DEDE Thailand PV Status (Mahidol survey) 22-25 THB/W for 10 kW-1 MW C&I systems in 2023; CapSolar 2026 20-25 THB/W under 1 MWp (20-23 at 500 kWp); Saimai Solar 2026 list 5.4M THB for 300 kW (18 THB/W); top of range covers Deye SUN-50K-SG01HP3 hybrid inverters (160,500 THB each at Supsaringkan, six units); size illustrative","Final kWp open until site selection; canopy PV over parking needs its own steel structure (not priced); PEA TOU 3.2.2 plus Ft (Sep-Dec 2026): self-consumed PV worth ~3.7 THB/kWh, ~3.8-5.4 yr payback (sustainability.md, grid tariff)"
solar,Battery stack 271 kWh (Gobel) installed,"GP-SRA-HV314 HV LiFePO4 rack, 15 x 18 kWh packs, direct from Shenzhen, 50-60 day lead; plus enclosure, fire detection and suppression, controls and installation",Gobel Power (no Thai distributor; integration by solar EPC),2000000,3500000,"battery: vendor listed price USD 39900-58000 at ~35 THB/USD = 1.40-2.03M THB, in line with DEDE's 5000-7000 THB/kWh for LiFePO4 (Mahidol survey); installed: estimate below CapSolar's 12000-15000 THB/kWh for a fully installed factory BESS (2026), because the Deye hybrid inverters in the PV row do the power conversion",Confirm Deye BMS protocol compatibility and that the EPC warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus; certs (UN38.3/IEC 62619/CE) to be requested
total,BASELINE TOTAL,Electric steam bank (2 modules) + oil-injected air + chiller bank (2 modules) + softener + loop treatment + local racking + HVAC + clean zones + 300 kWp solar + 271 kWh BESS,,27570000,47500000,sum of baseline rows,"Launch plant, one Duplex system and one Classic (October 2026; solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data 17 Oct 2026, was 28.47M-48.73M; was 30.07M-51.33M THB for five presses, 23.98M-41.63M for one Duplex); ~750k-1280k EUR at 38 THB/EUR; excludes options rows and the galvanics water rows (ZLD, DI), which total-investment.md carries with galvanics; all figures budgetary +/- 30%, get RFQs before BOI"
1 category item spec_summary candidate_thai_suppliers cost_low_thb cost_high_thb cost_basis notes
13 storage Pallet racking and shelving 100-200 pallet positions selective/heavy-duty (beams sized 1000-1500 kg/pallet, records are dense) + archive and finished-goods shelving, installed Jenbunjerd; LPI Rack Range (Thailand), Bangkok/Samut Prakan, racking and office mobile shelving; local fabricators (Sahawatthanakit, UPR, SD Shelf); SSI Schaefer (premium) 800000 1500000 published list prices + engineering estimate SSI Schaefer premium tier ~1.5-3M for same scope; ~1000-2000 THB per pallet position at local tier
14 hvac Whole-factory HVAC ~1500 m2 at 20-26 C, 35-60% RH, ePM1/F7-F9 filtration sized for burning-season PM2.5, ducting and controls Daikin Thailand; Trane; Mitsubishi Electric; Carrier; filtration: Camfil Thailand, AAF 7500000 15000000 engineering estimate at 5000-10000 THB/m2 RH low end of 35% is aggressive for tropics and drives desiccant cost; if 45-60% RH acceptable, cost drops materially
15 hvac Clean-room-grade zone adder Cutting room + galvanics clean room, ~2 x 60 m2, ISO 7/8 with HEPA terminals, positive pressure, airlocks Same HVAC vendors + clean-room contractors; Camfil HEPA 1200000 3400000 engineering estimate at 10000-28000 THB/m2 adder Applied only to the two tight zones
16 solar PV rooftop EPC (illustrative 300 kWp) Turnkey C&I rooftop EPC incl. Deye hybrid inverters, at 25000-35000 THB/kWp Turnkey C&I rooftop EPC incl. Deye hybrid inverters, at 20000-26000 THB/kWp Solar Nicolo (Deye tier-1 distributor); Banpu NEXT; SCG Cleanergy; Sermsang; local Chiang Mai installers Solar Nicolo (Deye tier-1 distributor); Banpu NEXT; SCG Cleanergy; Sermsang; CapSolar; local Chiang Mai installers 7500000 6000000 10500000 7800000 market rate per kWp; size illustrative market rate per kWp (October 2026 check): DEDE Thailand PV Status (Mahidol survey) 22-25 THB/W for 10 kW-1 MW C&I systems in 2023; CapSolar 2026 20-25 THB/W under 1 MWp (20-23 at 500 kWp); Saimai Solar 2026 list 5.4M THB for 300 kW (18 THB/W); top of range covers Deye SUN-50K-SG01HP3 hybrid inverters (160,500 THB each at Supsaringkan, six units); size illustrative Final kWp open until site selection; PEA TOU 3.2.2 plus Ft (Sep-Dec 2026): self-consumed PV worth ~3.7 THB/kWh, ~4.5-7 yr payback (sustainability.md, grid tariff) Final kWp open until site selection; canopy PV over parking needs its own steel structure (not priced); PEA TOU 3.2.2 plus Ft (Sep-Dec 2026): self-consumed PV worth ~3.7 THB/kWh, ~3.8-5.4 yr payback (sustainability.md, grid tariff)
17 solar Battery stack 271 kWh (Gobel) Battery stack 271 kWh (Gobel) installed GP-SRA-HV314 HV LiFePO4 rack, 15 x 18 kWh packs, direct from Shenzhen, 50-60 day lead GP-SRA-HV314 HV LiFePO4 rack, 15 x 18 kWh packs, direct from Shenzhen, 50-60 day lead; plus enclosure, fire detection and suppression, controls and installation Gobel Power (no Thai distributor; integration by solar EPC) 1400000 2000000 2030000 3500000 vendor listed price USD 39900-58000 at ~35 THB/USD battery: vendor listed price USD 39900-58000 at ~35 THB/USD = 1.40-2.03M THB, in line with DEDE's 5000-7000 THB/kWh for LiFePO4 (Mahidol survey); installed: estimate below CapSolar's 12000-15000 THB/kWh for a fully installed factory BESS (2026), because the Deye hybrid inverters in the PV row do the power conversion Confirm Deye BMS protocol compatibility and that the EPC warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus; certs (UN38.3/IEC 62619/CE) to be requested
18 total BASELINE TOTAL Electric steam bank (2 modules) + oil-injected air + chiller bank (2 modules) + softener + loop treatment + local racking + HVAC + clean zones + 300 kWp solar + 271 kWh BESS 28470000 27570000 48730000 47500000 sum of baseline rows Launch plant, one Duplex system and one Classic (October 2026; was 30.07M-51.33M THB for five presses, 23.98M-41.63M for one Duplex); ~750k-1280k EUR at 38 THB/EUR; excludes options rows and the galvanics water rows (ZLD, DI), which total-investment.md carries with galvanics; all figures budgetary +/- 30%, get RFQs before BOI Launch plant, one Duplex system and one Classic (October 2026; solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data 17 Oct 2026, was 28.47M-48.73M; was 30.07M-51.33M THB for five presses, 23.98M-41.63M for one Duplex); ~750k-1280k EUR at 38 THB/EUR; excludes options rows and the galvanics water rows (ZLD, DI), which total-investment.md carries with galvanics; all figures budgetary +/- 30%, get RFQs before BOI