Solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data (October 2026)

- Rooftop PV, 300 kWp (size still illustrative): 20 to 26 THB/W installed with the Deye hybrid inverters, 6.0M to 7.8M THB (was 25 to 35 THB/W, 7.5M to 10.5M). Sources in the utilities CSV: DEDE Thailand PV Status report (Mahidol survey: 22 to 25 THB/W for factory systems of 10 kW to 1 MW, 2023), CapSolar 2026 (20 to 25 under 1 MWp), Saimai Solar's list (300 kW for 5.4M THB), Deye hybrid inverter retail (160,500 THB per 50 kW). - Battery 271 kWh, now installed: 2.0M to 3.5M THB (was the bare Gobel list price, 1.4M to 2.0M, which matches DEDE's 5,000 to 7,000 THB/kWh for LiFePO4); adds enclosure, fire protection, controls and installation, below CapSolar's 12,000 to 15,000 THB/kWh for a fully installed factory BESS because the hybrid inverters do the conversion (estimate). - Utilities baseline 27.57M to 47.50M THB; launch plant ~160M / 222M / 283M THB with contingency; Plan B ~208M (~149M to 266M), ~31M more than Plan A; Plan A's total unchanged, its solar lever ~9.7M. PV payback ~3.8 to 5.4 years (sustainability.md). Calculator, README, roadmap, revenue model and both business plan versions (renders included) updated.
2026-10-17 16:41:14 +07:00
1 parent 3f33babdaa
commit ab303618d8
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ def blocks():
                 "version, Plan B (~210M THB), builds the same plant and takes none of the levers. ",
                 "This version is Plan B: the launch plant with the whole chain, cutting and galvanics "
                 "included, three presses, with everything in and none of the cost levers taken, at ~210M "
-                 "THB (~209M). A second version, Plan A (~180M THB), builds the same plant with six cost "
+                 "THB (~208M). A second version, Plan A (~180M THB), builds the same plant with six cost "
                 "levers. ")
             + "The plan price includes the ramp-up reserve and carries no contingency. Cover picture: the "
             "plant as the plant and business plan calculator draws this plan (schematic, Payap scenario "
@@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ def blocks():
            "right first; " + pick("the launch plant", "the whole chain at launch")
            + " was decided anyway, and that advice is carried as a risk (sections 11.2 and 13).",
            pick(
-                "**Six cost levers bring the plant to ~180M THB**, from ~194M to ~162M THB at the midpoint "
+                "**Six cost levers bring the plant to ~180M THB**, from ~193M to ~162M THB at the midpoint "
                "before the ramp-up reserve (estimates, section 8): rooftop solar and battery through a solar "
                "PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power); metrology in two "
                "steps (XRF, inline vision and the audio station at launch, the laser confocal and the "
@@ -120,8 +120,8 @@ def blocks():
                "with frame, runway and machine door kept crane-ready; boilers and compressor through the "
                "Chinese route. Every press, the cutting room, the galvanics line and the stamper-prep line "
                "stay in.",
-                "**Everything in, none of the cost levers: ~210M THB**, ~194M THB at the midpoint before the "
-                "ramp-up reserve and ~32M THB more than Plan A (estimates, section 8): owned rooftop solar and "
+                "**Everything in, none of the cost levers: ~210M THB**, ~193M THB at the midpoint before the "
+                "ramp-up reserve and ~31M THB more than Plan A (estimates, section 8): owned rooftop solar and "
                "battery (and with them the BOI solar measure); the full metrology stack from launch (XRF, "
                "laser confocal, wide-area profiler, inline vision, audio station); the visitor corridor and "
                "accessible entrance, so public tours and the Payap student programmes are possible from the "
@@ -190,10 +190,10 @@ def blocks():
                "(staff and overheads before volume covers them). From the low to the high end of every "
                "block: ~THB 127M to 226M. Estimates: no quote yet for the Classic, the galvanics line "
                "(priced at OMS's reference plus 20 %) or the building",
-                "**~THB 209M (~USD 6.33M), rounded to ~210M THB**: the plan investment, ~THB 193.8M (~USD "
-                "5.87M) at the midpoint with everything in, plus a ramp-up reserve of ~THB 10M to 20M (staff "
+                "**~THB 208M (~USD 6.30M), rounded to ~210M THB**: the plan investment, ~THB 192.8M (~USD "
+                "5.84M) at the midpoint with everything in, plus a ramp-up reserve of ~THB 10M to 20M (staff "
                "and overheads before volume covers them); at the midpoint within the investor's 180M THB "
-                "plus 20 %. From the low to the high end of every block: ~THB 150M to 268M. Estimates: no "
+                "plus 20 %. From the low to the high end of every block: ~THB 149M to 266M. Estimates: no "
                "quote yet for the Classic, the galvanics line (priced at OMS's reference plus 20 %) or the "
                "building")],
            ["Not in the plan price", "**No contingency** (at the 15 % used in the cost documents, ~THB "
@@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ def blocks():
                "~3.1 years on the plan price in the central case (2.2 to 4.0 from the low to the high end of "
                "the price); ~1.0 year in the favourable case, ~30 years in the adverse case (EBITDA, mature "
                "year, ramp-up reserve included; estimates)",
-                "~3.7 years on the plan price in the central case (2.6 to 4.7 from the low to the high end of "
+                "~3.6 years on the plan price in the central case (2.6 to 4.7 from the low to the high end of "
                "the price); ~1.2 years in the favourable case, ~35 years in the adverse case (EBITDA, mature "
                "year, ramp-up reserve included; estimates)")],
            ["First paying release", "**Open.** The August 2026 calendar gives Q4 2028 to mid-2029 (27 to 33 "
@@ -239,7 +239,7 @@ def blocks():
                "~THB 177M (~USD 5.35M), the ~180M THB plan, released in tranches against milestones "
                "(section 8), starting with phase 0 (~THB 1.3M to 2.6M). BOI caps debt-to-equity at 3:1, so "
                "at least a quarter is equity: ~THB 44M (arithmetic, before financing costs)",
-                "~THB 209M (~USD 6.33M), the ~210M THB plan, released in tranches against milestones "
+                "~THB 208M (~USD 6.30M), the ~210M THB plan, released in tranches against milestones "
                "(section 8), starting with phase 0 (~THB 1.3M to 2.6M). BOI caps debt-to-equity at 3:1, so "
                "at least a quarter is equity: ~THB 52M (arithmetic, before financing costs)")],
        ]),
@@ -251,7 +251,7 @@ def blocks():
            "presses (one Duplex system and the Classic) and takes six cost levers. ")
          + "Both carry the ramp-up reserve and neither carries a contingency, and in both the second Duplex "
          "system is a growth step from revenue. What decides between them is no longer demand, because both "
-          "make the same records: it is whether the investor funds ~THB 32M (~18 %) more at launch for what "
+          "make the same records: it is whether the investor funds ~THB 31M (~18 %) more at launch for what "
          "Plan A leases or buys from revenue. Plan B keeps the BOI solar measure (only an owned array "
          "qualifies), measures every stamper fully from the first release, makes tours and the Payap "
          "programmes possible from the start, sells cassette and CD-R from launch, owns its crane and buys "
@@ -262,19 +262,19 @@ def blocks():
          "Section 8 sets the two side by side."),
        T(["", "Plan A", "Plan B"], [
            ["Plan price (ramp-up reserve in, no contingency)", "~THB 177M (~USD 5.35M); ~127M to 226M from "
-             "the low to the high end", "~THB 209M (~USD 6.33M); ~150M to 268M from the low to the high end"],
+             "the low to the high end", "~THB 208M (~USD 6.30M); ~149M to 266M from the low to the high end"],
            ["Presses", "3: one Duplex system (2 semi-automatic) and one Classic", "The same 3"],
            ["Records a year at 60 % specials", "~0.58M to 0.90M (central 0.74M)", "The same"],
            ["EBITDA, central case", "~USD 1.73M (~THB 57M)", "~USD 1.73M (~THB 57M); cassette and CD-R "
                                                              "not modelled"],
            ["Operating profit, central case", "~USD 1.34M (~THB 44M)", "~USD 1.26M (~THB 42M)"],
-            ["Payback on the plan price, central case", "~3.1 years (2.2 to 4.0)", "~3.7 years (2.6 to 4.7)"],
+            ["Payback on the plan price, central case", "~3.1 years (2.2 to 4.0)", "~3.6 years (2.6 to 4.7)"],
            ["Adverse case", "Loses money: EBITDA ~USD 0.23M, operating loss ~USD 0.39M",
             "Loses money: EBITDA ~USD 0.23M, operating loss ~USD 0.52M"],
            ["What Plan A gives up, what Plan B buys", "At launch: solar through a PPA (very likely without "
             "the BOI solar measure), no confocal or profiler, no visitor corridor or tours, no cassette or "
             "CD-R, a rented crane; Chinese-made boilers and compressor",
-             "~THB 32M more at launch: owned solar and battery with the BOI solar measure, the full "
+             "~THB 31M more at launch: owned solar and battery with the BOI solar measure, the full "
             "metrology stack, the visitor corridor and tours, cassette and CD-R, a bought crane; "
             "Thai-supplied boilers and compressor"],
        ], widths_mm=[42, 64, 64], font_pt=8.5,
@@ -317,18 +317,18 @@ def blocks():
                "boiler and chiller modules), building contract, fit-out, commissioning in sequence "
                "(section 8). From the low to the high end of every block the plan runs from ~THB 127M to "
                "226M; quotes that land high are funded outside the plan or by scope steps.",
-                "**Then the Plan B round, ~THB 209M (~USD 6.33M), rounded to ~210M THB**, including the "
+                "**Then the Plan B round, ~THB 208M (~USD 6.30M), rounded to ~210M THB**, including the "
                "ramp-up reserve and without contingency, within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % at the "
                "midpoint, released in tranches against milestones: BOI certificate and lease signed, "
                "long-lead orders (lathe, galvanics, stamper prep, presses, boiler and chiller modules), "
                "building contract, fit-out, commissioning in sequence (section 8). From the low to the high "
-                "end of every block the plan runs from ~THB 150M to 268M; quotes that land high are funded "
+                "end of every block the plan runs from ~THB 149M to 266M; quotes that land high are funded "
                "outside the plan or by scope steps."),
            "**Decisions needed from the investor:** which version to fund, Plan A or Plan B (both make the "
-            "same records, so the choice is ~THB 32M more at launch for what Plan A leases or defers; the "
+            "same records, so the choice is ~THB 31M more at launch for what Plan A leases or defers; the "
            "Classic, Pheenix and EX 35 quotes, the solar PPA offer and the building quote settle the "
            "numbers); the equity/debt mix (BOI requires debt-to-equity of at most 3:1, so at "
-            "least ~THB " + pick("44M of Plan A's ~177M", "52M of Plan B's ~209M") + " is equity); CD "
+            "least ~THB " + pick("44M of Plan A's ~177M", "52M of Plan B's ~208M") + " is equity); CD "
            "replication, yes or no (it must be in the BOI application from the start); and the steam fuel, "
            "electric or biomass.",
            "**Co-investment:** Ploy Printing, the Chiang Mai print and packaging house that will produce "