Solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data (October 2026)
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- Rooftop PV, 300 kWp (size still illustrative): 20 to 26 THB/W installed
  with the Deye hybrid inverters, 6.0M to 7.8M THB (was 25 to 35 THB/W,
  7.5M to 10.5M). Sources in the utilities CSV: DEDE Thailand PV Status
  report (Mahidol survey: 22 to 25 THB/W for factory systems of 10 kW to
  1 MW, 2023), CapSolar 2026 (20 to 25 under 1 MWp), Saimai Solar's list
  (300 kW for 5.4M THB), Deye hybrid inverter retail (160,500 THB per
  50 kW).
- Battery 271 kWh, now installed: 2.0M to 3.5M THB (was the bare Gobel
  list price, 1.4M to 2.0M, which matches DEDE's 5,000 to 7,000 THB/kWh
  for LiFePO4); adds enclosure, fire protection, controls and installation,
  below CapSolar's 12,000 to 15,000 THB/kWh for a fully installed factory
  BESS because the hybrid inverters do the conversion (estimate).
- Utilities baseline 27.57M to 47.50M THB; launch plant ~160M / 222M /
  283M THB with contingency; Plan B ~208M (~149M to 266M), ~31M more than
  Plan A; Plan A's total unchanged, its solar lever ~9.7M. PV payback
  ~3.8 to 5.4 years (sustainability.md). Calculator, README, roadmap,
  revenue model and both business plan versions (renders included)
  updated.
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grabowski committed 2026-10-17 16:41:14 +07:00
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@@ -70,14 +70,14 @@ steps are open planning items.
- The plant now launches with everything in one capital round (October
2026): one Newbilt Duplex system and one Classic, a Pheenix galvanics
line, the Sibert stamper-prep line, a Sillitoe cutting room and the
modular boiler and chiller plant: ~161M to 285M THB with contingency
(midpoint ~223M), the Pheenix line priced at OMS's reference plus 20 %
modular boiler and chiller plant: ~160M to 283M THB with contingency
(midpoint ~222M), the Pheenix line priced at OMS's reference plus 20 %
([total investment](docs/finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)).
For the investor the business plan comes in two versions, priced
without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve
([two plans](docs/finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)):
**Plan A, ~177M THB**, the launch plant with six cost levers, and
**Plan B, ~209M THB**, the same launch plant with everything in.
**Plan B, ~208M THB**, the same launch plant with everything in.
Chinese boilers, compressor and hydraulics save about 2M THB of that
([Chinese suppliers](docs/suppliers/china-utilities.md)).
The business plan is re-based on it (draft 0.2).
@@ -280,8 +280,8 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
output capacity, building area, land, electrical demand, solar and
storage, steam and fuel, headcount, and money cross-references
- [Total investment](docs/finance/total-investment.md): the launch plant
decided in October 2026 (~161M to 285M THB, ~4.9M to 8.6M USD, midpoint
~223M THB) with the basis of every block, the two plans for the investor
decided in October 2026 (~160M to 283M THB, ~4.85M to 8.6M USD, midpoint
~222M THB) with the basis of every block, the two plans for the investor
(Plan A ~180M, Plan B ~210M THB, without contingency), and the earlier
answer to the 180M / 216M question; the earlier full vision and phased
entry are kept as superseded
@@ -293,7 +293,7 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
planned 60 % specials (central revenue ~3.65M USD a year on ~0.74M
records, EBITDA ~1.7M; the adverse case loses money), the operating
pictures of Plan A (payback ~3.1 years on ~177M THB) and Plan B (the
same output, payback ~3.7 years on ~209M THB: its extra pays back
same output, payback ~3.6 years on ~208M THB: its extra pays back
through what the table leaves out), the five-press table, and the levers and
caveats behind the numbers
- Business plan, draft 0.3 (October 2026), in two versions: