Solar on every roof, BOI solar correction, open source section
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Solar (user, 17 Oct 2026: "use as much roof space as possible") - PV on every roof and canopy: ~640 kWp on the Payap scenario plot (factory roof ~523, canopies ~54, flat office roof ~65 kWp around the AC units); ~300 kWp on the Mueang Chi hall. Calculator: pvKWp 640, new pvSelf 85 % (zero export, hourly sketch), PV cost per kWp times the array, office-roof PV in the iso view, roofs drawn full. - 12.8M to 16.6M THB at 20 to 26 THB/W; CSV baseline 34.37M to 56.34M; launch plant ~168M / 231M / 294M THB with contingency; Plan B ~216M (label ~215M), ~39M above Plan A; Plan A unchanged (it leases the array), its solar lever ~17.5M. PV payback ~4.2 to 5.9 years. - Permits (rooftop solar no factory licence since 28 Dec 2024, ERC exemption under 1,000 kVA, PEA zero export) and PPA discounts sourced in sustainability.md. BOI correction - Announcement 3/2568 (in force 1 July 2025) ended BOI promotion for solar installations; only the battery may qualify (12M THB per MW cap). Removed the "BOI solar measure" from boi.md, total-investment, revenue-model, sustainability, site-candidates and both plan versions; Plan B's case for owning the array is the PPA bill it avoids (~0.07M USD a year). Open source (user, 17 Oct 2026) - digital-factory.md "Open source throughout, and working with other plants": everything we run and build is open source on NixOS, our code published (licence to decide), vendor firmware the stated exception; later the stack and factory-automation services for other pressing plants, not in the revenue. - Business plan section 5.6 plus an executive-summary bullet, reading guide and not-modelled mentions; draft 0.3 rebuilt (A 60, B 61 pages), renders re-made with the roofs full.
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@@ -669,9 +669,9 @@ What it says:
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## Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)
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The business plan comes in two versions
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([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)):
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([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026)):
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**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers) and
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**Plan B** (~208M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
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**Plan B** (~216M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
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priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve. Both run the
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same three presses, so volume, price, direct cost, title services and
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overheads are those of the launch-plant table above; only the
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@@ -679,14 +679,14 @@ depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
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- **Plan A**: the high end of its blocks (6.25M USD) over 10 years, the
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midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low end (3.56M USD) over 15. The
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solar PPA adds its power price to the energy line (~0.03M USD a year in
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the calculator), not shown here.
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- **Plan B**: 7.47M USD over 10 years, 5.84M over 12.5, 4.22M over 15.
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Its owned solar saves the PPA power bill; cassette and CD-R sales, tours
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solar PPA adds its power price to the energy line (~0.07M USD a year in
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the calculator for the ~640 kWp array), not shown here.
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- **Plan B**: 7.73M USD over 10 years, 6.08M over 12.5, 4.42M over 15.
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Its owned solar (~640 kWp, every roof and canopy) saves the PPA power bill; cassette and CD-R sales, tours
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and the Payap programmes it opens from the start are not modelled.
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- **Payback** is counted on the whole plan price including the ramp-up
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reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.52M / 6.30M /
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8.07M USD from the low to the high end).
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reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.72M / 6.53M /
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8.34M USD from the low to the high end).
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| USD/yr | A adverse | A central | A favourable | B adverse | B central | B favourable |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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@@ -697,10 +697,10 @@ depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
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| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M |
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| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
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| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** |
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| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.75M | 0.47M | 0.28M |
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| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **-0.52M** | **1.26M** | **3.51M** |
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| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.77M | 0.49M | 0.29M |
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| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **-0.54M** | **1.24M** | **3.50M** |
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| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) |
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| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~35 yr | ~3.6 yr (2.6 to 4.7) | ~1.2 yr |
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| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~36 yr | ~3.8 yr (2.7 to 4.8) | ~1.2 yr |
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What it says:
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@@ -708,14 +708,16 @@ What it says:
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year**; its adverse corner still loses money, because it would need
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~0.9 million records to cover depreciation and the three presses make
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0.58 million at that rate.
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- **Plan B** breaks even at **~0.23 million records**, and its adverse
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- **Plan B** breaks even at **~0.24 million records**, and its adverse
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corner loses more (~1.1 million records needed to cover depreciation).
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At the central cost and volume the price that covers its depreciation
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is ~2.8 USD (~91 THB) a record.
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- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~31M THB earns nothing**: the same
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EBITDA, more depreciation and a longer payback. Its case rests on what
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the table leaves out: the BOI solar measure on the owned array, the
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PPA power bill it avoids, full stamper metrology from the first
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is ~2.8 USD (~92 THB) a record.
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- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~39M THB earns little**: the same
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EBITDA here (the calculator, which splits energy by plan, puts it ~0.07M
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USD a year ahead for the PPA bill the owned array avoids), more
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depreciation and a longer payback. Its case rests on what
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the table leaves out: the PPA power bill it avoids (the BOI no longer
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promotes solar installations since July 2025), full stamper metrology from the first
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release, tours, the Payap programmes, and cassette and CD-R sales.
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- **The caveats above hold for both:** a central EBITDA margin of ~47 %
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is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn, the cost of specials
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@@ -724,10 +726,10 @@ What it says:
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The [calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) presets, at the team's
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planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex system) and its own cost
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build-up, give at 850k records: **Plan A** EBITDA 2.04M USD, payback 2.4
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build-up, give at 850k records: **Plan A** EBITDA 2.05M USD, payback 2.4
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years on the investment, cash payback in year ~3.9 and ~25 % IRR over ten
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years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** EBITDA 2.07M USD, payback 2.8
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years, cash payback in year ~4.3 and ~21 % IRR (pre-tax, pre-financing,
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years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** EBITDA 2.12M USD, payback 2.9
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years, cash payback in year ~4.4 and ~21 % IRR (pre-tax, pre-financing,
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estimates).
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## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
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