Solar on every roof, BOI solar correction, open source section
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 54s
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 54s
Solar (user, 17 Oct 2026: "use as much roof space as possible") - PV on every roof and canopy: ~640 kWp on the Payap scenario plot (factory roof ~523, canopies ~54, flat office roof ~65 kWp around the AC units); ~300 kWp on the Mueang Chi hall. Calculator: pvKWp 640, new pvSelf 85 % (zero export, hourly sketch), PV cost per kWp times the array, office-roof PV in the iso view, roofs drawn full. - 12.8M to 16.6M THB at 20 to 26 THB/W; CSV baseline 34.37M to 56.34M; launch plant ~168M / 231M / 294M THB with contingency; Plan B ~216M (label ~215M), ~39M above Plan A; Plan A unchanged (it leases the array), its solar lever ~17.5M. PV payback ~4.2 to 5.9 years. - Permits (rooftop solar no factory licence since 28 Dec 2024, ERC exemption under 1,000 kVA, PEA zero export) and PPA discounts sourced in sustainability.md. BOI correction - Announcement 3/2568 (in force 1 July 2025) ended BOI promotion for solar installations; only the battery may qualify (12M THB per MW cap). Removed the "BOI solar measure" from boi.md, total-investment, revenue-model, sustainability, site-candidates and both plan versions; Plan B's case for owning the array is the PPA bill it avoids (~0.07M USD a year). Open source (user, 17 Oct 2026) - digital-factory.md "Open source throughout, and working with other plants": everything we run and build is open source on NixOS, our code published (licence to decide), vendor firmware the stated exception; later the stack and factory-automation services for other pressing plants, not in the revenue. - Business plan section 5.6 plus an executive-summary bullet, reading guide and not-modelled mentions; draft 0.3 rebuilt (A 60, B 61 pages), renders re-made with the roofs full.
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@@ -669,9 +669,9 @@ What it says:
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## Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)
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The business plan comes in two versions
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([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)):
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([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026)):
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**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers) and
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**Plan B** (~208M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
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**Plan B** (~216M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
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priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve. Both run the
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same three presses, so volume, price, direct cost, title services and
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overheads are those of the launch-plant table above; only the
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@@ -679,14 +679,14 @@ depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
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- **Plan A**: the high end of its blocks (6.25M USD) over 10 years, the
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midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low end (3.56M USD) over 15. The
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solar PPA adds its power price to the energy line (~0.03M USD a year in
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the calculator), not shown here.
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- **Plan B**: 7.47M USD over 10 years, 5.84M over 12.5, 4.22M over 15.
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Its owned solar saves the PPA power bill; cassette and CD-R sales, tours
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solar PPA adds its power price to the energy line (~0.07M USD a year in
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the calculator for the ~640 kWp array), not shown here.
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- **Plan B**: 7.73M USD over 10 years, 6.08M over 12.5, 4.42M over 15.
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Its owned solar (~640 kWp, every roof and canopy) saves the PPA power bill; cassette and CD-R sales, tours
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and the Payap programmes it opens from the start are not modelled.
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- **Payback** is counted on the whole plan price including the ramp-up
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reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.52M / 6.30M /
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8.07M USD from the low to the high end).
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reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.72M / 6.53M /
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8.34M USD from the low to the high end).
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| USD/yr | A adverse | A central | A favourable | B adverse | B central | B favourable |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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@@ -697,10 +697,10 @@ depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
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| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M |
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| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
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| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** |
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| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.75M | 0.47M | 0.28M |
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| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **-0.52M** | **1.26M** | **3.51M** |
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| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.77M | 0.49M | 0.29M |
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| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **-0.54M** | **1.24M** | **3.50M** |
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| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) |
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| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~35 yr | ~3.6 yr (2.6 to 4.7) | ~1.2 yr |
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| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~36 yr | ~3.8 yr (2.7 to 4.8) | ~1.2 yr |
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What it says:
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@@ -708,14 +708,16 @@ What it says:
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year**; its adverse corner still loses money, because it would need
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~0.9 million records to cover depreciation and the three presses make
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0.58 million at that rate.
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- **Plan B** breaks even at **~0.23 million records**, and its adverse
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- **Plan B** breaks even at **~0.24 million records**, and its adverse
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corner loses more (~1.1 million records needed to cover depreciation).
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At the central cost and volume the price that covers its depreciation
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is ~2.8 USD (~91 THB) a record.
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- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~31M THB earns nothing**: the same
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EBITDA, more depreciation and a longer payback. Its case rests on what
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the table leaves out: the BOI solar measure on the owned array, the
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PPA power bill it avoids, full stamper metrology from the first
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is ~2.8 USD (~92 THB) a record.
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- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~39M THB earns little**: the same
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EBITDA here (the calculator, which splits energy by plan, puts it ~0.07M
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USD a year ahead for the PPA bill the owned array avoids), more
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depreciation and a longer payback. Its case rests on what
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the table leaves out: the PPA power bill it avoids (the BOI no longer
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promotes solar installations since July 2025), full stamper metrology from the first
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release, tours, the Payap programmes, and cassette and CD-R sales.
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- **The caveats above hold for both:** a central EBITDA margin of ~47 %
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is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn, the cost of specials
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@@ -724,10 +726,10 @@ What it says:
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The [calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) presets, at the team's
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planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex system) and its own cost
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build-up, give at 850k records: **Plan A** EBITDA 2.04M USD, payback 2.4
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build-up, give at 850k records: **Plan A** EBITDA 2.05M USD, payback 2.4
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years on the investment, cash payback in year ~3.9 and ~25 % IRR over ten
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years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** EBITDA 2.07M USD, payback 2.8
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years, cash payback in year ~4.3 and ~21 % IRR (pre-tax, pre-financing,
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years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** EBITDA 2.12M USD, payback 2.9
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years, cash payback in year ~4.4 and ~21 % IRR (pre-tax, pre-financing,
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estimates).
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## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
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@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
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| Cutting room: Sillitoe SDMS, spare cutterhead and support, mastering console and chain, monitoring, room build-out | 200k – 350k | 6.6M – 11.6M | SDMS list price USD 125k (ex tax and shipping); the rest estimate |
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| Metrology and QC stack (XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler, inline vision on three presses, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.6M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable ([quality automation](../quality-automation.md)) |
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| PVC lab, day-one tier | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md) |
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| Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking | 835k – 1,439k | 27.6M – 47.5M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three; solar at 20 to 26 THB/W installed and the battery installed (Thai market prices checked October 2026, sources in the CSV) |
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| Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking | 1,042k – 1,707k | 34.4M – 56.3M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three; PV on every roof and canopy (~640 kWp, user decision 17 October 2026) at 20 to 26 THB/W installed and the battery installed (Thai market prices checked October 2026, sources in the CSV) |
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| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil and site works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.3M | estimate at 12,000 – 20,000 THB/m² plus ~20 % site works; soil is the main variable |
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| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
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| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
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@@ -61,9 +61,9 @@ on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
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| Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication | 55k – 190k | 1.8M – 6.3M | estimate, business plan sections 4.8 and 4.9 |
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| Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its quoted 5 days) | 150k – 300k | 5.0M – 9.9M | estimate |
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| Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent | 135k – 290k | 4.5M – 9.6M | estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase |
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| Subtotal | ~4.22M – 7.47M | ~139M – 246M | midpoint ~5.84M USD, ~193M THB |
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| Contingency 15 % | ~0.63M – 1.12M | ~21M – 37M | |
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| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.85M – 8.6M USD** | **~160M – 283M THB** | midpoint ~6.72M USD, ~222M THB |
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| Subtotal | ~4.42M – 7.73M | ~146M – 255M | midpoint ~6.08M USD, ~201M THB |
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| Contingency 15 % | ~0.66M – 1.16M | ~22M – 38M | |
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| **Total, launch plant** | **~5.1M – 8.9M USD** | **~168M – 294M THB** | midpoint ~6.99M USD, ~231M THB |
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Not in the total: a **reserve for the ramp-up** (staff hired before first
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revenue, overheads until volume covers them; ~10M to 20M THB, estimate),
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@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).
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### The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)
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*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)
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*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026)
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below. Written against the earlier Pheenix estimate (USD 320k to 650k,
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total ~227M THB at the midpoint); its galvanics lever is now the base
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price.*
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@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology
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stack. Until they are in, quote **~216M THB** to the investor as the
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target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
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## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~210M THB (October 2026)
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## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~215M THB (October 2026)
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Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
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versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
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@@ -139,12 +139,16 @@ versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
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- **Plan A, ~180M THB**: the launch plant with every machine decided
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above (one Duplex system, one Classic, galvanics, Sibert, the cutting
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room), brought down with six cost levers.
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- **Plan B, ~210M THB**: the same launch plant, one Duplex system and
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- **Plan B, ~215M THB**: the same launch plant, one Duplex system and
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one Classic, with everything in: none of Plan A's six levers taken.
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First drawn as five presses at ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %); re-defined
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by the user on 17 October 2026 ("plan b should also only start with 1
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duplex and 1 classic, but with all levers"). In both plans the second
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Duplex system is a growth step from revenue.
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Duplex system is a growth step from revenue. On 17 October 2026 the
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solar array was sized to every roof and canopy (~640 kWp, "use as much
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roof space as possible"); that raised Plan B from ~208M to ~216M and
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Plan A's solar lever from ~9.7M to ~17.5M, and left Plan A's price as
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it was, because Plan A leases the array.
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Both are priced **without contingency** (user decision) and **with the
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ramp-up reserve**, because the reserve is cash the investor puts in
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@@ -153,8 +157,8 @@ reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
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| Plan A: launch plant with six levers | Saves | Subtotal after it |
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|---|---|---|
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| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~192.8M THB (~5.84M USD) |
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| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~9.7M | ~183.1M |
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| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~200.6M THB (~6.08M USD) |
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| Solar (~640 kWp on every roof and canopy) and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~17.5M | ~183.1M |
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| Metrology launch tier: XRF, inline vision and audio station at launch; laser confocal and wide-area profiler (USD 180k to 350k) bought from revenue | ~8.8M | ~174.4M |
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| Visitor corridor built later; no public tours at first | ~3.6M | ~170.8M |
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| Cassette and CD-R duplication later | ~4.0M | ~166.8M |
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@@ -165,14 +169,14 @@ reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
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| Plan B: the launch plant, everything in | USD | THB |
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|---|---|---|
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| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar and battery ~9.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~31M THB at the midpoint) | 4.22M – 7.47M | ~139M – 246M, **~192.8M (~5.84M USD)** at the midpoint |
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| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar (~640 kWp) and battery ~17.5M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~39M THB at the midpoint) | 4.42M – 7.73M | ~146M – 255M, **~200.6M (~6.08M USD)** at the midpoint |
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| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
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| **Plan B** | | **~208M THB (~6.30M USD): ~210M**, ~149M to 266M from the low to the high end of every block |
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| **Plan B** | | **~216M THB (~6.53M USD): ~215M**, ~156M to 275M from the low to the high end of every block |
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Plan B costs ~31M THB (~18 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
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stays within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (its high end, ~266M, does
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not). It keeps what Plan A leases or defers:
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owned solar and battery (and with them the BOI solar measure), the full
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Plan B costs ~39M THB (~22 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
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stays just within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (216M; its high end,
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~275M, does not). It keeps what Plan A leases or defers:
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owned solar on every roof and canopy and the battery, the full
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metrology stack from the first release, the visitor corridor and tours
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from the start, cassette and CD-R, the bought crane, Thai-supplied
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utilities with local service. Both plans have the same three presses and
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@@ -186,22 +190,26 @@ both as presets.
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- **Contingency.** The blocks are budgetary (plus or minus 30 to 50 % on
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the estimates, top of this page), so the plans carry no buffer for
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quotes landing high. At this page's 15 % that would be ~24M THB on
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Plan A and ~29M on Plan B at the midpoint.
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Plan A and ~30M on Plan B at the midpoint.
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- The central hydraulic plant (not costed yet), the archive's mobile
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shelving (to quote), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves,
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and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).
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**What decides between them:** not demand, since both make the same
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records, but whether the investor funds ~31M THB more at launch for what
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records, but whether the investor funds ~39M THB more at launch for what
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Plan A leases or buys from revenue. On the modelled numbers Plan B's
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extra earns nothing (same EBITDA, more depreciation, a longer payback);
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its case rests on what the operating table leaves out: the BOI solar
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measure (only an owned array qualifies), full stamper metrology for the
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traceability pitch from the first release, tours and the Payap
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programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, and utilities with
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local service. Most of Plan B's items can be added to Plan A later from
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revenue; the solar measure and the corridor are cheaper to have from
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the start. Both plans keep the second Duplex as a growth step, with its
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extra earns little: the same EBITDA in the revenue model (the calculator
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puts Plan B ~0.07M USD a year ahead, the PPA power bill its owned array
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avoids), more depreciation and a longer payback;
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its case rests on that bill and on what the operating table leaves out:
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full stamper metrology for the traceability pitch from the first release,
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tours and the Payap programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, and
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utilities with local service. The BOI no longer promotes solar
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installations (Announcement 3/2568, in force 1 July 2025; only the
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battery may still qualify, see [BOI](../boi.md)), so owning the array
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earns no tax benefit, only the bill. Most of Plan B's items can be added
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to Plan A later from revenue; the corridor is cheaper to have from the
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start. Both plans keep the second Duplex as a growth step, with its
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floor, utility positions and ring-main tees reserved: ~15.4M THB at the
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midpoint for the system (~8.7M), a third chiller module CH-3 (~2.1M),
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their freight and installation (~1.2M) and the working capital for the
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@@ -13,6 +13,6 @@ water,Galvanics ZLD evaporator,"Small MVR or low-temp vacuum evaporator for plat
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storage,Pallet racking and shelving,"100-200 pallet positions selective/heavy-duty (beams sized 1000-1500 kg/pallet, records are dense) + archive and finished-goods shelving, installed","Jenbunjerd; LPI Rack Range (Thailand), Bangkok/Samut Prakan, racking and office mobile shelving; local fabricators (Sahawatthanakit, UPR, SD Shelf); SSI Schaefer (premium)",800000,1500000,published list prices + engineering estimate,SSI Schaefer premium tier ~1.5-3M for same scope; ~1000-2000 THB per pallet position at local tier
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hvac,Whole-factory HVAC,"~1500 m2 at 20-26 C, 35-60% RH, ePM1/F7-F9 filtration sized for burning-season PM2.5, ducting and controls","Daikin Thailand; Trane; Mitsubishi Electric; Carrier; filtration: Camfil Thailand, AAF",7500000,15000000,engineering estimate at 5000-10000 THB/m2,"RH low end of 35% is aggressive for tropics and drives desiccant cost; if 45-60% RH acceptable, cost drops materially"
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hvac,Clean-room-grade zone adder,"Cutting room + galvanics clean room, ~2 x 60 m2, ISO 7/8 with HEPA terminals, positive pressure, airlocks",Same HVAC vendors + clean-room contractors; Camfil HEPA,1200000,3400000,engineering estimate at 10000-28000 THB/m2 adder,Applied only to the two tight zones
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solar,PV rooftop EPC (illustrative 300 kWp),"Turnkey C&I rooftop EPC incl. Deye hybrid inverters, at 20000-26000 THB/kWp",Solar Nicolo (Deye tier-1 distributor); Banpu NEXT; SCG Cleanergy; Sermsang; CapSolar; local Chiang Mai installers,6000000,7800000,"market rate per kWp (October 2026 check): DEDE Thailand PV Status (Mahidol survey) 22-25 THB/W for 10 kW-1 MW C&I systems in 2023; CapSolar 2026 20-25 THB/W under 1 MWp (20-23 at 500 kWp); Saimai Solar 2026 list 5.4M THB for 300 kW (18 THB/W); top of range covers Deye SUN-50K-SG01HP3 hybrid inverters (160,500 THB each at Supsaringkan, six units); size illustrative","Final kWp open until site selection; canopy PV over parking needs its own steel structure (not priced); PEA TOU 3.2.2 plus Ft (Sep-Dec 2026): self-consumed PV worth ~3.7 THB/kWh, ~3.8-5.4 yr payback (sustainability.md, grid tariff)"
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solar,"PV EPC, every roof and canopy covered (~640 kWp on the Payap scenario plot)","Turnkey C&I EPC on the factory roof (~523 kWp), the office roof (~65 kWp) and the car and scooter canopies (~54 kWp), incl. inverters (Deye hybrids where the battery connects), at 20000-26000 THB/kWp",Solar Nicolo (Deye tier-1 distributor); Banpu NEXT; SCG Cleanergy; Sermsang; CapSolar; local Chiang Mai installers,12800000,16640000,"market rate per kWp (October 2026 check): DEDE Thailand PV Status (Mahidol survey) 22-25 THB/W for 10 kW-1 MW C&I systems in 2023; CapSolar 2026 20-25 THB/W under 1 MWp (20-23 at 500 kWp); Saimai Solar 2026 list 5.4M THB for 300 kW (18 THB/W); top of range covers Deye SUN-50K-SG01HP3 hybrid inverters (160,500 THB each at Supsaringkan, about ten 50 kW units for ~500 kVA); size: the roofs full, user decision 17 Oct 2026 (was an illustrative 300 kWp)","Size follows the site: on the Mueang Chi hall the roof and canopies take ~300 kWp (scale.md), the rest would be ground mount; canopy steel is in the construction RFQ site works; ~85% of the yield used on site under PEA zero export (hourly sketch, estimate); self-consumed PV worth ~3.7 THB/kWh, ~4.2-5.9 yr payback (sustainability.md, grid tariff)"
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solar,Battery stack 271 kWh (Gobel) installed,"GP-SRA-HV314 HV LiFePO4 rack, 15 x 18 kWh packs, direct from Shenzhen, 50-60 day lead; plus enclosure, fire detection and suppression, controls and installation",Gobel Power (no Thai distributor; integration by solar EPC),2000000,3500000,"battery: vendor listed price USD 39900-58000 at ~35 THB/USD = 1.40-2.03M THB, in line with DEDE's 5000-7000 THB/kWh for LiFePO4 (Mahidol survey); installed: estimate below CapSolar's 12000-15000 THB/kWh for a fully installed factory BESS (2026), because the Deye hybrid inverters in the PV row do the power conversion",Confirm Deye BMS protocol compatibility and that the EPC warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus; certs (UN38.3/IEC 62619/CE) to be requested
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total,BASELINE TOTAL,Electric steam bank (2 modules) + oil-injected air + chiller bank (2 modules) + softener + loop treatment + local racking + HVAC + clean zones + 300 kWp solar + 271 kWh BESS,,27570000,47500000,sum of baseline rows,"Launch plant, one Duplex system and one Classic (October 2026; solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data 17 Oct 2026, was 28.47M-48.73M; was 30.07M-51.33M THB for five presses, 23.98M-41.63M for one Duplex); ~750k-1280k EUR at 38 THB/EUR; excludes options rows and the galvanics water rows (ZLD, DI), which total-investment.md carries with galvanics; all figures budgetary +/- 30%, get RFQs before BOI"
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total,BASELINE TOTAL,Electric steam bank (2 modules) + oil-injected air + chiller bank (2 modules) + softener + loop treatment + local racking + HVAC + clean zones + ~640 kWp solar + 271 kWh BESS,,34370000,56340000,sum of baseline rows,"Launch plant, one Duplex system and one Classic (October 2026; solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data and the array sized to every roof and canopy 17 Oct 2026, was 27.57M-47.50M at 300 kWp and 28.47M-48.73M before the re-price; was 30.07M-51.33M THB for five presses, 23.98M-41.63M for one Duplex); ~750k-1280k EUR at 38 THB/EUR; excludes options rows and the galvanics water rows (ZLD, DI), which total-investment.md carries with galvanics; all figures budgetary +/- 30%, get RFQs before BOI"
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Reference in new issue
Block a user