Plan B re-defined: the launch plant with everything in (~210M THB); front view on the cover
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 52s
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 52s
- Plan B now starts like Plan A with one Duplex system and one Classic, but takes none of the six levers: owned solar and battery (with the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor corridor, cassette and CD-R, the bought crane and Thai-supplied utilities (user, 17 October 2026). ~193.8M THB before the reserve, ~209M with it (~150M to 268M), ~32M (~18 %) more than Plan A; the second Duplex is a growth step from revenue in both (~15.4M THB, estimate). - total-investment.md "Two plans" re-based (heading and anchor now "B at ~210M THB", README and roadmap links updated); revenue-model.md operating pictures: same volume and EBITDA as Plan A, depreciation on Plan B's capital (operating profit 1.26M USD central, payback ~3.7 yr); the extra earns nothing in the modelled table, which the docs say. - Calculator: Plan B preset = the launch plant with contingency kept out (EBITDA 2.07M USD, cash payback year ~4.3, IRR ~21 %); budget card marks 180M and 180M plus 25 %; preset label "Plan B (~210M, all in)". - Business plan draft 0.3, both versions rebuilt: every Plan B branch of the three content files rewritten; renders regenerated with the isometric view turned to the front of the site (road, car park, office, corridor facade) for the cover and Figures 8 to 10.
This commit is contained in:
1 parent
ffc6cedbca
commit
3f33babdaa
28 files changed
+528
-604
No files matched your search
@@ -669,44 +669,38 @@ What it says:
|
||||
## Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)
|
||||
|
||||
The business plan comes in two versions
|
||||
([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)):
|
||||
**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers, three
|
||||
presses) and **Plan B** (~224M THB, the second Duplex at launch, five
|
||||
presses), both priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve.
|
||||
Same method and cases as above, at the planned 60 % specials (estimates):
|
||||
([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)):
|
||||
**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers) and
|
||||
**Plan B** (~209M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
|
||||
priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve. Both run the
|
||||
same three presses, so volume, price, direct cost, title services and
|
||||
overheads are those of the launch-plant table above; only the
|
||||
depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
|
||||
|
||||
- **Plan A** runs the launch plant, so volume, price, direct cost, title
|
||||
services and overheads are those of the table above; only the
|
||||
depreciation follows its lower capital: the high end of Plan A's blocks
|
||||
(6.25M USD) over 10 years, the midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low
|
||||
end (3.56M USD) over 15. The solar PPA adds its power price to the
|
||||
energy line (~0.03M USD a year in the calculator), not shown here.
|
||||
- **Plan B**'s five presses are not Duplex-limited at 60 % specials: the
|
||||
four semi-automatic presses (240 to 320 records an hour) carry the
|
||||
specials and the Classic the rest, so volume is the five-press band,
|
||||
**1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5M** records. Direct cost per record is the five-press
|
||||
table's 2.58 / 1.94 / 1.30 USD (the same payroll over more records);
|
||||
title services 300 / 375 / 400 titles at 580 / 1,155 / 1,730 USD and 60
|
||||
/ 65 / 70 % contribution (the five-press table's 0.10 / 0.28 / 0.48M);
|
||||
depreciation on Plan B's blocks: 8.07M USD over 10 years, 6.34M over
|
||||
12.5, 4.61M over 15.
|
||||
- **Plan A**: the high end of its blocks (6.25M USD) over 10 years, the
|
||||
midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low end (3.56M USD) over 15. The
|
||||
solar PPA adds its power price to the energy line (~0.03M USD a year in
|
||||
the calculator), not shown here.
|
||||
- **Plan B**: 7.50M USD over 10 years, 5.87M over 12.5, 4.24M over 15.
|
||||
Its owned solar saves the PPA power bill; cassette and CD-R sales, tours
|
||||
and the Payap programmes it opens from the start are not modelled.
|
||||
- **Payback** is counted on the whole plan price including the ramp-up
|
||||
reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.92M / 6.79M /
|
||||
8.67M USD from the low to the high end).
|
||||
reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.55M / 6.33M /
|
||||
8.11M USD from the low to the high end).
|
||||
|
||||
| USD/yr | A adverse | A central | A favourable | B adverse | B central | B favourable |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Records | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M | 1.0M | 1.25M | 1.5M |
|
||||
| Records | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M |
|
||||
| Blended price (60 % specials) | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 |
|
||||
| Direct cost | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 | 2.58 | 1.94 | 1.30 |
|
||||
| Pressing contribution | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M | 1.18M | 3.19M | 5.96M |
|
||||
| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M | 0.10M | 0.28M | 0.48M |
|
||||
| Direct cost | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 |
|
||||
| Pressing contribution | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M |
|
||||
| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M |
|
||||
| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
|
||||
| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** | **0.83M** | **3.14M** | **6.24M** |
|
||||
| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.81M | 0.51M | 0.31M |
|
||||
| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **0.02M** | **2.63M** | **5.93M** |
|
||||
| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 3.93M (~130M THB) | 6.05M (~200M THB) | 8.60M (~284M THB) |
|
||||
| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~10.5 yr | ~2.2 yr (1.6 to 2.8) | ~0.8 yr |
|
||||
| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** |
|
||||
| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.75M | 0.47M | 0.28M |
|
||||
| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **-0.52M** | **1.26M** | **3.51M** |
|
||||
| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) |
|
||||
| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~35 yr | ~3.7 yr (2.6 to 4.7) | ~1.2 yr |
|
||||
|
||||
What it says:
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -714,29 +708,27 @@ What it says:
|
||||
year**; its adverse corner still loses money, because it would need
|
||||
~0.9 million records to cover depreciation and the three presses make
|
||||
0.58 million at that rate.
|
||||
- **Plan B** breaks even at ~0.22 million records and its adverse corner
|
||||
just covers depreciation (~1.0 million records needed, 1.0 million
|
||||
made): more presses spread the same crews, overheads and title services
|
||||
over more records. Its central EBITDA is ~1.8 times Plan A's for ~27 %
|
||||
more money.
|
||||
- **But Plan B only earns this if the records sell.** Its central case
|
||||
needs ~1.25 million records a year, ~0.75 million of them special
|
||||
editions, against 0.74 million for Plan A; nothing in the market data
|
||||
so far shows that demand (roadmap item 1). The ramp to that volume is
|
||||
longer, and the ramp-up reserve (10M to 20M THB) is the same estimate
|
||||
as for Plan A.
|
||||
- **The caveats above hold for both:** central EBITDA margins of ~47 %
|
||||
(A) and ~52 % (B) are far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn,
|
||||
the cost of specials is not in the direct cost yet, and neither plan
|
||||
carries a contingency. Treat the adverse columns as the honest ones.
|
||||
- **Plan B** breaks even at **~0.23 million records**, and its adverse
|
||||
corner loses more (~1.1 million records needed to cover depreciation).
|
||||
At the central cost and volume the price that covers its depreciation
|
||||
is ~2.8 USD (~91 THB) a record.
|
||||
- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~32M THB earns nothing**: the same
|
||||
EBITDA, more depreciation and a longer payback. Its case rests on what
|
||||
the table leaves out: the BOI solar measure on the owned array, the
|
||||
PPA power bill it avoids, full stamper metrology from the first
|
||||
release, tours, the Payap programmes, and cassette and CD-R sales.
|
||||
- **The caveats above hold for both:** a central EBITDA margin of ~47 %
|
||||
is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn, the cost of specials
|
||||
is not in the direct cost yet, and neither plan carries a contingency.
|
||||
Treat the adverse columns as the honest ones.
|
||||
|
||||
The [calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) presets, at the team's
|
||||
planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex system) and its own cost
|
||||
build-up, give: **Plan A** at 850k records EBITDA 2.04M USD, payback 2.4
|
||||
build-up, give at 850k records: **Plan A** EBITDA 2.04M USD, payback 2.4
|
||||
years on the investment, cash payback in year ~3.9 and ~25 % IRR over ten
|
||||
years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** at 1.25M records EBITDA
|
||||
3.25M USD, payback 2.0 years, cash payback in year ~3.3 and ~32 % IRR
|
||||
(pre-tax, pre-financing, estimates).
|
||||
years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** EBITDA 2.07M USD, payback 2.8
|
||||
years, cash payback in year ~4.3 and ~21 % IRR (pre-tax, pre-financing,
|
||||
estimates).
|
||||
|
||||
## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in new issue
Block a user