Plan B re-defined: the launch plant with everything in (~210M THB); front view on the cover
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 52s

- Plan B now starts like Plan A with one Duplex system and one Classic,
  but takes none of the six levers: owned solar and battery (with the BOI
  solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor corridor, cassette
  and CD-R, the bought crane and Thai-supplied utilities (user, 17 October
  2026). ~193.8M THB before the reserve, ~209M with it (~150M to 268M),
  ~32M (~18 %) more than Plan A; the second Duplex is a growth step from
  revenue in both (~15.4M THB, estimate).
- total-investment.md "Two plans" re-based (heading and anchor now
  "B at ~210M THB", README and roadmap links updated); revenue-model.md
  operating pictures: same volume and EBITDA as Plan A, depreciation on
  Plan B's capital (operating profit 1.26M USD central, payback ~3.7 yr);
  the extra earns nothing in the modelled table, which the docs say.
- Calculator: Plan B preset = the launch plant with contingency kept out
  (EBITDA 2.07M USD, cash payback year ~4.3, IRR ~21 %); budget card marks
  180M and 180M plus 25 %; preset label "Plan B (~210M, all in)".
- Business plan draft 0.3, both versions rebuilt: every Plan B branch of
  the three content files rewritten; renders regenerated with the
  isometric view turned to the front of the site (road, car park, office,
  corridor facade) for the cover and Figures 8 to 10.
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grabowski committed 2026-10-17 16:33:18 +07:00
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@@ -75,9 +75,9 @@ steps are open planning items.
([total investment](docs/finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)).
For the investor the business plan comes in two versions, priced
without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve
([two plans](docs/finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)):
([two plans](docs/finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)):
**Plan A, ~177M THB**, the launch plant with six cost levers, and
**Plan B, ~224M THB**, five presses with the second Duplex at launch.
**Plan B, ~209M THB**, the same launch plant with everything in.
Chinese boilers, compressor and hydraulics save about 2M THB of that
([Chinese suppliers](docs/suppliers/china-utilities.md)).
The business plan is re-based on it (draft 0.2).
@@ -282,7 +282,7 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
- [Total investment](docs/finance/total-investment.md): the launch plant
decided in October 2026 (~161M to 285M THB, ~4.9M to 8.6M USD, midpoint
~223M THB) with the basis of every block, the two plans for the investor
(Plan A ~180M, Plan B ~225M THB, without contingency), and the earlier
(Plan A ~180M, Plan B ~210M THB, without contingency), and the earlier
answer to the 180M / 216M question; the earlier full vision and phased
entry are kept as superseded
- [Phase 1 construction RFQ](docs/finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md):
@@ -292,14 +292,14 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
and margin per record, the launch plant's operating picture at the
planned 60 % specials (central revenue ~3.65M USD a year on ~0.74M
records, EBITDA ~1.7M; the adverse case loses money), the operating
pictures of Plan A (payback ~3.1 years on ~177M THB) and Plan B
(1.25M records, EBITDA ~3.1M USD, payback ~2.2 years on ~224M THB, if
the records sell), the five-press table, and the levers and
pictures of Plan A (payback ~3.1 years on ~177M THB) and Plan B (the
same output, payback ~3.7 years on ~209M THB: its extra pays back
through what the table leaves out), the five-press table, and the levers and
caveats behind the numbers
- Business plan, draft 0.3 (October 2026), in two versions:
[Plan A, ~180M THB](docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.pdf)
([docx](docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.docx)) and
[Plan B, ~225M THB](docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.pdf)
[Plan B, ~210M THB](docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.pdf)
([docx](docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.docx)): the
investor-facing roll-up of everything above, each a complete plan with
one table comparing it with the other, both priced without contingency