Rebase costs on USD/THB; add timelines and first market data

Currency
- Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at
  5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD.
  EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change.
- Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent
  alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs.
- Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD.

New documents
- production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch
  8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house
  galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number,
  and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate.
- project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028.
  Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to
  commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the
  repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be
  over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather
  than at contract signature.

First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok)
- Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one
  Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic.
- Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes
  to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per
  unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes.
- The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as
  an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit
  floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and
  it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open
  question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1.
- Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and
  one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a
  second data point exists.

Corrections
- Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated
  as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the
  previous "40 to 55%" was not supported.
- Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M
  to 38M.
- README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
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grabowski committed 2026-08-06 12:22:40 +07:00
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@@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ Suppliers identified:
| Supplier | Location | Offering | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbilt machinery GmbH | Alsdorf, Germany | Single 2.1 system (VEX 50 extruder, HRP 12 press ~150 t, semi-auto), Duplex expansion, molds, Vario trimmer, grinder, label punch | 2024 quote 200,549.50 EUR incl. freight, expired, needs re-quote; contact via Hans-Juergen Helm |
| Newbilt machinery GmbH | Alsdorf, Germany | Single 2.1 system (VEX 50 extruder, HRP 12 press ~150 t, semi-auto), Duplex expansion, molds, Vario trimmer, grinder, label punch. **Also builds the Classic 12" fully automatic press**: hydraulic **3-column** frame, **built-in 15 kW extruder** (3 heated zones, water-cooled screw), automatic patty loading, automatic label supply, automatic cooling-plate management, spindle stack output, Siemens Security PLC on a 10" touchscreen with SCADA / OPC UA, CE approved, **28 s cycle (~128 records/h)**, vendor-claimed **≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime**. So Newbilt is a single-vendor candidate for *both* fleet halves, not only the semi-auto one. Note the half-automatic press is a **4-column book-mould** design — column count is the quickest way to tell the two apart on a factory floor | 2024 quote EUR 200,549.50 (~USD 232k / ~7.7M THB) incl. freight, expired, needs re-quote; ask for build time and order-book position in the re-quote; **ResurRec Bangkok already runs one automatic + one semi-automatic Newbilt — ask for the Thai install base and a service-response precedent**; contact via Hans-Juergen Helm |
| Pheenix Alpha | Solna, Sweden | AD12 fully automatic press (24-26 s cycle, ~140 records/h, 1 operator per 4 presses); AD12 Manual semi-auto | Direct Toolex Alpha successor; possible single-vendor option for both fleet halves; andreas.runsten@pheenixalpha.com |
Open: decision between Newbilt semi-auto + Pheenix automatic vs. single
@@ -137,6 +137,15 @@ Suppliers identified (2021 contact list, needs refresh; full contacts in
Open: identify and qualify Thai/regional PVC compound producers.
**Lead (August 2026):** photographs from the ResurRec tour show the
pressing floor stacked with kraft sacks printed **"MADE IN THAILAND"**,
suggesting the incumbent already runs Thai-sourced material. The visible
wording includes "Pigment", so these may be colorant/masterbatch rather
than base compound — worth a photograph of a full sack label, or a direct
question, to identify the supplier. Either answer is useful: a qualified
Thai compound source would close this open item, and a Thai pigment source
feeds the colour/splatter work the semi-automatic line is meant to serve.
## 8. Utilities and Site (customer-supplied around the machines)
- Solar PV installation (large; panel and array sizing open until site
@@ -149,7 +158,8 @@ Open: identify and qualify Thai/regional PVC compound producers.
- Battery storage: Gobel Power (Shenzhen, est. 2012) GP-SRA-HV314 HV rack
BESS, 271 kWh = 15 stacked 18 kWh packs (LFP 314 Ah, 1P18S), DC 225-985 V,
8000+ cycles, ~135 kW continuous discharge at 0.5P, CAN/RS485 with "Deye
CAN HV" protocol support. Listed USD 39,900-58,000, 50-60 day lead from
CAN HV" protocol support. Listed USD 39,900-58,000 (~1.3M to 1.9M THB),
50-60 day lead from
China. Open checks: rack voltage vs. chosen Deye model's battery window
(full 15-pack rack can exceed 800 V), safety certifications
(UN38.3, IEC 62619, CE) not published, no performance warranty published,
@@ -175,8 +185,8 @@ site systems are compiled in
| Supplier | Location | Offering | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Da Costa | UK | Vinyl manufacturing consultancy: factory layout, installation, training, process optimization | GBP 10k-20k packages / GBP 450 per day; credentials self-stated, references needed |
| Newbilt service | Germany | Installation, commissioning, training beyond the included 5 days | 2024 rate card: 84 EUR/h on-site plus surcharges and travel |
| Kevin Da Costa | UK | Vinyl manufacturing consultancy: factory layout, installation, training, process optimization | GBP 10k-20k packages (~USD 13.5k-27k) / GBP 450 per day (~USD 610); credentials self-stated, references needed |
| Newbilt service | Germany | Installation, commissioning, training beyond the included 5 days | 2024 rate card: EUR 84/h (~USD 97 / ~3,200 THB) on-site plus surcharges and travel |
| buildfor.life | Thailand | Project consulting | Supporting |
Open: mastering/cutting engineer training, galvanics process expertise