Rebase costs on USD/THB; add timelines and first market data
Currency - Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at 5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change. - Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs. - Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD. New documents - production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch 8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number, and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate. - project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028. Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather than at contract signature. First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok) - Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic. - Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes. - The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1. - Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a second data point exists. Corrections - Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the previous "40 to 55%" was not supported. - Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M to 38M. - README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
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@@ -20,6 +20,17 @@ realistic overall effectiveness of 60 to 70% applied. The theoretical
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ceiling of the mature fleet at 100% uptime is roughly 1.9 to 2.1 million
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records per year.
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**The 60–70% effectiveness assumption is worth challenging.** Newbilt
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publishes **≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime** for the Classic 12" automatic at
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a 28 s cycle (~128 records/h), and quotes ~30 s average for the Duplex.
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Even discounting the vendor's optimism and multiplying availability by
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yield by a realistic performance factor, that implies an OEE nearer 80%
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than 65% — which would make the capacity table here conservative by
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roughly a fifth to a third. Ask both press vendors for the **basis** of
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their uptime and yield figures (measured over what period, at what run
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length, counting which stoppages) as part of the re-quote. It is a free
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question and it moves the whole capacity model.
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## Building
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| Zone | Rough area |
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@@ -164,11 +175,15 @@ people** across shifts at maturity, fewer than half that at launch.
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## Money (cross-references)
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- Newbilt semi-auto line: **~€200,500** (2024 quote, expired, in
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[pressing-line](equipment/pressing-line.md))
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Figures in USD and THB at 1 USD = 33 THB (5 August 2026); vendor quotes
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keep their original currency alongside.
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- Newbilt semi-auto line: **~USD 232k (~7.7M THB)**, from the June 2024
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quote of EUR 200,500 — expired, in
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[pressing-line](equipment/pressing-line.md)
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- Thai-sourced utilities, HVAC, racking, solar, BESS baseline: **~24M to
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42M THB** (~€630k to 1.1M), detail in the
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42M THB (~USD 730k to 1.27M)**, detail in the
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[utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv)
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- Not yet priced: automated presses (indicative ~$340k each, unverified),
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- Not yet priced: automated presses (indicative ~USD 340k each, unverified),
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galvanics line, mastering/cutting room, metrology, building
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construction/fit-out, land
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