Rebase costs on USD/THB; add timelines and first market data
Currency - Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at 5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change. - Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs. - Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD. New documents - production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch 8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number, and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate. - project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028. Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather than at contract signature. First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok) - Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic. - Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes. - The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1. - Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a second data point exists. Corrections - Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the previous "40 to 55%" was not supported. - Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M to 38M. - README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
This commit is contained in:
1 parent
9d5d695855
commit
20c8d283d5
9 files changed
+946
-92
No files matched your search
+16
-5
@@ -8,11 +8,17 @@ Rough durations are estimates.
|
||||
|
||||
These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
|
||||
|
||||
1. **Market validation**: test the 3.0 to 4.0 EUR blended pressing price
|
||||
1. **Market validation**: test the 3.50 to 4.60 USD blended pressing price
|
||||
and regional demand with Asian labels and distributors, starting at
|
||||
Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest
|
||||
assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the
|
||||
financing case waits on it.
|
||||
financing case waits on it. **Partially started**: a first buy-side
|
||||
data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are
|
||||
recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on
|
||||
per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no
|
||||
HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest
|
||||
argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Carry the
|
||||
open run-size question into these conversations.
|
||||
2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity
|
||||
sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and
|
||||
R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes
|
||||
@@ -85,7 +91,12 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
|
||||
|
||||
22. Duplex expansion (second press and extruder are already quoted options)
|
||||
23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep) with
|
||||
the zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup
|
||||
the zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
|
||||
**Open question: should this move to Phase 1?** The August 2026 market
|
||||
evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press
|
||||
capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's
|
||||
spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the
|
||||
[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md)
|
||||
24. Automated press line (the 50/50 fleet target)
|
||||
25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
|
||||
26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
|
||||
@@ -97,5 +108,5 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
|
||||
Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
|
||||
before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
|
||||
validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
|
||||
The phased entry (~1.5M to 2.5M EUR) is the default path; the full vision
|
||||
(~4M to 7.7M EUR) is reached through it, not instead of it.
|
||||
The phased entry (~1.7M to 2.9M USD) is the default path; the full vision
|
||||
(~4.7M to 8.9M USD) is reached through it, not instead of it.
|
||||
Reference in new issue
Block a user