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Rebase costs on USD/THB; add timelines and first market data

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Currency
- Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at
  5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD.
  EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change.
- Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent
  alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs.
- Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD.

New documents
- production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch
  8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house
  galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number,
  and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate.
- project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028.
  Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to
  commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the
  repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be
  over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather
  than at contract signature.

First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok)
- Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one
  Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic.
- Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes
  to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per
  unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes.
- The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as
  an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit
  floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and
  it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open
  question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1.
- Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and
  one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a
  second data point exists.

Corrections
- Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated
  as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the
  previous "40 to 55%" was not supported.
- Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M
  to 38M.
- README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
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# Project Timeline: Today to First Paying Release
A calendar against the dependency-ordered phases in
[roadmap.md](roadmap.md). That page deliberately carries no dates —
"the clock starts when the first-phase items move" — and it is right to,
because nothing in Phase 0 has moved yet. This page is the other half of
that: what the calendar looks like **if** Phase 0 starts now, so the
consequences of delay are visible and the critical path is explicit.
Anchored at **August 2026**. Every duration is an estimate; the ones
that are not in this repo at all are flagged as such, and one of them
governs the whole schedule.
## The answer
**First paying release lands around Q4 2028 to Q1 2029 — roughly 27 to
30 months from today**, on the buy-and-build path with a BOI-funded
machinery order.
The critical path is not construction and not money. It is:
> **BOI certificate → press order → press build → sea freight →
> commissioning**
Everything else, including the entire building, has float against that
chain. Which means the two things that actually move the date are the
BOI filing date and the press vendor's build time — and **the second
one is not documented anywhere in this repo.**
## Gantt
```mermaid
gantt
title CNX Vinyl - Phase 1 to first paying release
dateFormat YYYY-MM-DD
axisFormat %b %y
section Gates (Phase 0)
Market validation / Making Vinyl :a1, 2026-08-01, 120d
BOI consultant engaged :a2, 2026-08-01, 60d
BOI application prepared :a3, after a2, 90d
60 rai title check :a4, 2026-08-01, 90d
section BOI
Application filed :milestone, m1, 2026-12-15, 0d
BOI review and analyst meeting :b1, 2026-12-15, 150d
Promotion certificate :milestone, m2, 2027-05-15, 0d
Company incorporation :b2, after m2, 45d
section Land and building
Zoning and title verification :c1, 2026-09-01, 90d
Soil boring test :c2, after c1, 30d
Land purchase or lease :c3, after c2, 60d
Design and building permit :c4, 2027-03-01, 120d
Phase 1 construction :c5, 2027-07-01, 240d
Utilities, solar, fit-out :c6, 2028-03-01, 120d
Ror.Ngor.4 factory licence :c7, 2028-01-01, 150d
section Equipment (critical path)
Newbilt re-quote incl. lead time :d1, 2026-08-01, 90d
Press order signed :milestone, m3, 2027-06-15, 0d
Press build at vendor :d2, 2027-06-15, 300d
Sea freight Alsdorf to Thailand :d3, after d2, 50d
Install and commission :d4, 2028-07-01, 75d
section Launch
Hire and train launch team :e1, 2028-05-01, 120d
First test pressings :e2, 2028-09-15, 45d
First paying release :milestone, m4, 2028-11-15, 0d
```
## The critical path, step by step
| # | Step | Duration | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Engage BOI consultant, prepare application | 4–5 months | Estimate; the application must stack solar, automation and R&D measures ([boi.md](boi.md)) |
| 2 | BOI review to certificate | 4–6 months | [boi.md](boi.md): ~40 working days decision, 4–6 months in practice |
| 3 | Company incorporation under the certificate | 1–2 months | [roadmap.md](roadmap.md) item 10 |
| 4 | Press order to vendor-ready | **9–12 months** | **Not in this repo — assumed.** See below |
| 5 | Sea freight Germany → Thailand | 6–8 weeks | Newbilt quote includes freight and seaworthy packaging |
| 6 | Install, commission, train | 2–3 months | Newbilt includes 5 days; the rest at ~USD 97/h plus travel |
| 7 | Test pressings, QC baseline, reject shakedown | 1.5–2 months | [roadmap.md](roadmap.md) item 19 |
| | **Total** | **~27–33 months** | |
### The one number that governs everything
**Nobody has written down how long Newbilt takes to build a Single 2.1
system.** It is not in the 2024 budgetary offer summary, not in the site
requirements, not in `equipment-suppliers.md`, and not in
`pressing-line.md`. The 9–12 months above is an industry-typical figure
for a built-to-order press system from a small German manufacturer, and
it is carrying about **40% of the entire schedule**.
If the real figure is 15–18 months — entirely plausible for a shop of
Newbilt's size with a full order book — first production moves to late
2029 and the whole plan shifts by half a year.
**Action, and it is free:** [roadmap.md](roadmap.md) item 4 already
calls for a Newbilt re-quote, since the 2024 offer has expired. Add
**quoted build time and current order-book position** as required fields
in that re-quote, and ask Pheenix Alpha the same in item 5. This is one
line in an email that is being sent anyway, and it is the single
highest-value piece of missing information in the project.
### The lever worth checking first
The sequencing rule in [boi.md](boi.md) is stated as: BOI approval comes
before "any machinery purchase orders", because duty exemption is not
retroactive and the certificate defines the import window.
That serialises ~9 months of press build **behind** ~10 months of BOI
process, and it is where most of the 27 months comes from.
But the duty exemption attaches at **importation**, not at contract
signature. If an order can be placed — even with a deposit — while the
BOI application is in review, so long as the machinery *clears customs*
after the certificate is issued and appears on the approved machinery
list, then steps 2 and 4 overlap and **the launch pulls forward by six
to nine months**.
This is not a claim, it is a question, and it is the first question to
put to the BOI consultant in [roadmap.md](roadmap.md) item 2:
> Can we sign a machinery supply contract and pay a deposit before the
> promotion certificate is issued, provided importation and customs
> clearance occur after issuance and the item is on the approved
> machinery list? What is the risk to the exemption if the certificate
> is delayed or refused after the contract is signed?
Nothing else on this page is worth six months. This is.
## What has float, and how much
| Track | Needed by | Float | Becomes critical if |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land purchase | Design start, ~Q1 2027 | ~4 months | Zoning fails and a new site is needed (~6 months reset) |
| Phase 1 construction | Machinery arrival, ~Q3 2028 | ~3–5 months | Soft-paddy soil forces piling, or permits stall |
| Ror.Ngor.4 factory licence | First production, Q4 2028 | ~4 months | Galvanics effluent permitting is raised early — but galvanics is Phase 5, so keep it out of the Phase 1 licence scope |
| Solar and BESS | Fit-out, ~Q2 2028 | large | Gobel lead time is documented at 50–60 days; not a risk |
| Hiring and training | Commissioning, ~Q3 2028 | ~2 months | Galvanics process expertise — "the hardest skill to hire" per `equipment-suppliers.md` — but again, Phase 5 |
Construction has the thinnest float of anything with a real duration,
and it is thin for a reason: it cannot start until the land is bought,
which cannot happen until zoning is verified, which has not started.
**Zoning verification is the cheapest schedule insurance available** and
it currently sits unowned — `scale.md` flags it as "still unverified"
and gates "phase 1 every bit as much as phase 2".
## The BOI windows are not a risk here
Worth confirming explicitly, because they are hard deadlines with
penalties:
| Window | Deadline on this schedule | Actual need | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machinery import, 30 months from certificate | ~Q4 2029 | Machinery clears customs ~Q3 2028 | **~15 months** |
| Full operation, ~36 months from certificate | ~Q2 2030 | First production ~Q4 2028 | **~18 months** |
Comfortable — but only on the buy-and-build path as drawn. The margin is
consumed by exactly one scenario: filing BOI early to start the clock,
then discovering the site does not work. Which is another argument for
verifying zoning **before** filing, not after.
## The lease-versus-build fork
[total-investment.md](finance/total-investment.md) states the phased
entry as "**leased building** instead of purchase", saving 1.0–2.1M USD
of upfront capital. Recent work has gone the other way: a full
parametric building model and a
[construction RFQ](finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md) for a purpose-built
60 × 25 m facility on a purchased Mueang Chi parcel.
Both are legitimate. They are not both costed, and the difference is not
only money:
| | Lease | Buy and build |
|---|---|---|
| Upfront capital | ~0 | 1.0–2.1M USD (34–69M THB) |
| On the critical path? | No | Yes, with ~3–5 months float |
| Earliest first production | **~Q1–Q2 2028** | ~Q4 2028–Q1 2029 |
| Slab rating, 3 t/m² | Must be verified in an existing building; most Thai light-industrial stock will not have it | Specified from the start |
| 500–1,000 kVA supply | Existing connection, or a PEA upgrade with its own lead time | Designed in |
| BOI land ownership privilege | Unused | Used |
| Galvanics effluent, Phase 5 | Landlord's permission needed, and may not be given | Ours to permit |
Leasing pulls the launch forward by roughly **three quarters** and frees
a seven-figure sum, at the cost of a building that probably compromises
on the two hardest requirements (floor loading and power) and may block
the Phase 5 galvanics line entirely. Locating in the Northern Region
Industrial Estate, which [boi.md](boi.md) already favours for its shared
central effluent treatment, is the version of leasing that keeps the
galvanics option alive.
**This is an unresolved fork, not a decision I can make.** It is worth
resolving before more design effort goes into the parametric model,
because the model is only useful on one side of it.
## The investor's CD and cassette request
Adding CD and cassette to the plant has been raised by the main
investor. Its effect on **this** schedule depends entirely on which of
three very different things is meant, and the range is enormous:
| Option | Capex order | Space | Effect on this timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cassette duplication | Tens of thousands USD | ~40–80 m² | **None.** Short lead times, fits inside the building programme, can be added during fit-out or later |
| CD-R duplication, short run | Low tens of thousands | ~20–40 m² | **None** |
| **CD replication** (glass mastering, injection moulding, metallising) | **Millions USD** | ~300–600 m² plus clean room | **Substantial** — new BOI activity codes, a larger building, and a second commissioning programme |
The first two are schedule-neutral and can be decided late. The third is
a different project bolted onto this one and would need to be in the BOI
application from the start, since activity codes cannot be added
casually afterwards.
Because the answer changes by three orders of magnitude, this page
assumes the vinyl-only critical path until the scope is settled. The
substance of that decision is not a timeline question and is discussed
separately.
## What this page is not
It is not a plan of record. No Phase 0 item has started, so the whole
calendar shifts day for day with the BOI consultant engagement. It is a
tool for seeing which delays cost time and which do not:
- **A month lost engaging the BOI consultant costs a month of launch.**
- A month lost on land or construction costs nothing, until the float is
gone.
- A month lost getting the press lead time in writing costs nothing
today and may cost six months of surprise later.