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Rebase costs on USD/THB; add timelines and first market data

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Currency
- Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at
  5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD.
  EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change.
- Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent
  alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs.
- Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD.

New documents
- production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch
  8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house
  galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number,
  and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate.
- project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028.
  Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to
  commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the
  repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be
  over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather
  than at contract signature.

First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok)
- Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one
  Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic.
- Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes
  to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per
  unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes.
- The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as
  an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit
  floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and
  it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open
  question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1.
- Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and
  one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a
  second data point exists.

Corrections
- Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated
  as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the
  previous "40 to 55%" was not supported.
- Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M
  to 38M.
- README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
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docs/finance/total-investment.md
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@@ -4,32 +4,39 @@ Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked
"estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the
researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide
margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.
FX: ~38 THB/EUR. Compiled July 2026.
**Currency: USD and THB.** FX at 5 August 2026: **1 USD = 33 THB**.
Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency
wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at
**1 EUR = 1.155 USD** and **1 GBP = 1.35 USD**. Original figures compiled
July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at
~38 is where it was when they were made.
## Full vision, all blocks
| Block | Low (EUR) | High (EUR) | Basis |
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 300,000 | 320,000 | 2024 quote 200,500 + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~100,000; expired, needs re-quote |
| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 500,000 | 800,000 | unverified ~$340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning |
| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix) | 280,000 | 560,000 | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research |
| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 80,000 | 210,000 | utilities CSV option row, 3-8M THB |
| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 50,000 | 150,000 | estimate, pricing unpublished |
| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew lathe and head, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 250,000 | 500,000 | estimate, bespoke market |
| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 300,000 | 700,000 | estimate, phaseable |
| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 630,000 | 1,100,000 | reviewed utilities CSV, 23.98-41.63M THB |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 560,000 | 950,000 | estimate at 12,000-20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
| Land 6-8 rai, if purchased | 315,000 | 840,000 | estimate at 2-4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
| Traceability and factory software | 50,000 | 150,000 | estimate |
| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 100,000 | 200,000 | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 100,000 | 200,000 | estimate |
| Subtotal | ~3,500,000 | ~6,700,000 | |
| Contingency 15% | ~500,000 | ~1,000,000 | |
| **Total, full vision** | **~4,000,000** | **~7,700,000** | **~150M to 290M THB** |
| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote |
| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning |
| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research |
| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row |
| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate, pricing unpublished |
| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew lathe and head, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 290k – 580k | 9.6M – 19.1M | estimate, bespoke market |
| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.5M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable |
| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 730k – 1,270k | 24.0M – 41.6M | reviewed [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv), THB-native |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.2M | estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
| Land 6–8 rai, if purchased | 360k – 970k | 12.0M – 32.0M | estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
| Traceability and factory software | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate |
| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Subtotal | ~4.1M – 7.7M | ~135M – 254M | |
| Contingency 15% | ~0.6M – 1.2M | ~20M – 38M | |
| **Total, full vision** | **~4.7M – 8.9M USD** | **~155M – 294M THB** | |
## Phased entry
A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly **1.5M to 2.5M EUR**:
A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly **1.7M to 2.9M USD
(~57M to 95M THB)**:
- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
@@ -50,11 +57,20 @@ exactly this reason.
blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption
headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see
[boi.md](../boi.md))
- **Buy vs lease** on land and building swings roughly 0.9M to 1.8M EUR of
upfront capital
- **Buy vs lease** on land and building swings roughly **1.0M to 2.1M
USD (~34M to 69M THB)** of upfront capital, and also moves the launch
date by about three quarters — see
[project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)
- **Biggest uncertainty bands**: metrology (partly a choice of ambition),
the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the
automated presses (single unverified price point), and land
- **Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here.** Revenue is
mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and
the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged
against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see
[project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)). A 10% move in EUR/THB
between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line
alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in
[equipment-suppliers.md](../suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md) lists who
to ask