Rebase costs on USD/THB; add timelines and first market data
Currency - Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at 5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change. - Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs. - Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD. New documents - production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch 8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number, and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate. - project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028. Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather than at contract signature. First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok) - Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic. - Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes. - The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1. - Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a second data point exists. Corrections - Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the previous "40 to 55%" was not supported. - Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M to 38M. - README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
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@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ and budgets for the other steps are open planning items.
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- Alexander and Simona will soon travel to
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[Making Vinyl](https://makingvinyl.com/) in Haarlem, Netherlands, to gather
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further insights from the pressing industry.
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- A collaboration with [Resurrec](https://www.resurrec.com/) is under
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- A collaboration with [ResurRec](https://www.resurrec.com/) is under
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discussion.
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## Planning Documents
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@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
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quotes, commitment, build, launch, and expansion
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- [Pressing line equipment plan](docs/equipment/pressing-line.md): the
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50/50 automated/semi-automatic fleet strategy, the Newbilt system under
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evaluation (≈ €200,500 quoted scope), and site requirements
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evaluation (~USD 232k quoted scope), and site requirements
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- [Vendor landscape](docs/suppliers/vendor-landscape.md): researched
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candidates for mastering and cutting (Agnew Analog), galvanics equipment
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(Plating Power / Digital Matrix), stamper preparation (Sibert), bridge
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@@ -92,14 +92,23 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
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- [Process flow](docs/process-flow.md): the whole chain from audio file to
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delivered record as a chart and stage table, with every check and the
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three artist approval gates (printable diagram alongside)
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- [Production timeline](docs/production-timeline.md): how long an order
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takes stage by stage, launch vs mature configuration, the repress fast
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path, and what lead time can honestly be quoted to a customer
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- [Project timeline](docs/project-timeline.md): the calendar from today to
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first paying release, the BOI-to-machinery critical path, and where the
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float actually sits
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- [Project scale](docs/scale.md): rough numbers for everything on one page:
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output capacity, building area, land, electrical demand, solar and
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storage, steam and fuel, headcount, and money cross-references
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- [Total investment](docs/finance/total-investment.md): the full-vision
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roll-up (~4M to 7.7M EUR) and the ~1.5M to 2.5M EUR phased entry, with
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roll-up (~4.7M to 8.9M USD) and the ~1.7M to 2.9M USD phased entry, with
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the basis of every block
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- [Phase 1 construction RFQ](docs/finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md):
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the spec sheet for asking a contractor to price the phase 1 buildings
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and site works, with quantities taken from the parametric BIM model
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- [Revenue model](docs/finance/revenue-model.md): rough full-capacity
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revenue (~3.2M to 5.9M EUR/yr), direct cost and margin per record, and
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revenue (~3.7M to 6.8M USD/yr), direct cost and margin per record, and
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the levers and caveats behind the numbers
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## Repository Layout
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@@ -111,12 +120,15 @@ docs/
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│ ├── newbilt/ Offers, site requirements, process schematic,
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│ │ service rates (vendor PDFs)
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│ └── pressing-line.md Press fleet strategy and equipment plan
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├── finance/ Project cost overviews
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├── finance/ Project cost overviews, revenue model,
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│ construction RFQ
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├── suppliers/ Supplier contacts, vendor landscape, supplier map
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├── biomass.md Biomass fuel strategy and the 60 rai coppice idea
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├── boi.md BOI promotion strategy and requirements
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├── facility-security.md Security, HVAC, fire and life safety, compliance
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├── process-flow.md Audio file to delivered record, with all checks
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├── production-timeline.md Order turnaround, stage by stage
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├── project-timeline.md Calendar to first paying release, critical path
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├── quality-automation.md Stamper metrology and layered record QC
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├── roadmap.md Next steps in dependency order
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├── scale.md Rough project sizing on one page
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