All-equity funding: shareholders fund the whole plant
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User, 20 Oct 2026: the plan is that the shareholders fund the whole
plant and get shares for that (no bank loan).
- total-investment.md "Two plans": Funding paragraph: Plan B's ~217M
THB paid in as share capital; the lead investor's 60 % at least ~130M,
the 40 % at most ~87M (~121M / ~81M before the reserve; Plan A ~109M /
~73M); capital registered in full and called in instalments against
the tranches; BOI's 3:1 met with no debt; nothing pledged.
- boi.md, README Project Status and the share-price bullet follow.
- Business plan A and B: the ask, the decisions, section 12.2 (funding
bullet replaces the 3:1 equity floor), section 14 and the BOI
requirements paragraph; "not in this plan" now names bank debt; both
rebuilt (63 pages, checked).
- share-price.md re-based: 2,170,000 shares of 100 THB, the 40 % ~86.8M
THB; illustrative calls 25/40/20/15 % against the tranches; premium
rows on 217M; value per share once running with no debt (adverse 11 to
42 THB, central 80 to 314, favourable 176 to 688 per 100 THB paid);
VC method and CAPM recomputed; the calculator's ~22 % IRR is now the
shareholders' pre-tax return (~18 % after tax, rough); missed-call
rules (CCC 1120 to 1125); the levered case kept as "if a loan were
added later".
- Deck: slide 12 (all equity, 60/40 bar ~130M / ~87M, none pledged,
share capital called in instalments), slide 13 (re-based table, chart,
premium cards, VC line), slide 17 (co-investor card, calls) and notes
("lenders" -> "investors"); both PDFs rebuilt; deck verify clean.
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 1, 3.1 to 3.3 and 9.1; revenue-model.md "First market data point" and "Record Industry's calculator"; roadmap.md item 1. THB at 33 per USD.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">The customer we serve presses abroad today. Lead times have normalised to roughly 10 to 16 weeks for a standard black LP, but freight, time zones and the queue remain. The one Thai shop we have seen presses only; its stampers come from abroad, so short runs and represses are slow and expensive. On price, our assumption of USD 3.76 to 5.27 a record sits between the European ex-works level of about USD 2.43 and the Thai market. Be clear with lenders: buyer-side validation, roadmap item 1, is still open, and the Thai evidence is one supplier and one afternoon. The financing case waits on it. Sources: business plan B, sections 3.1 to 3.3; revenue-model.md; roadmap.md.</aside>
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<aside class="notes">The customer we serve presses abroad today. Lead times have normalised to roughly 10 to 16 weeks for a standard black LP, but freight, time zones and the queue remain. The one Thai shop we have seen presses only; its stampers come from abroad, so short runs and represses are slow and expensive. On price, our assumption of USD 3.76 to 5.27 a record sits between the European ex-works level of about USD 2.43 and the Thai market. Be clear with investors: buyer-side validation, roadmap item 1, is still open, and the Thai evidence is one supplier and one afternoon. The investment case waits on it. Sources: business plan B, sections 3.1 to 3.3; revenue-model.md; roadmap.md.</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> process-flow.md; traceability.md; quality-automation.md; digital-factory.md; business plan B, sections 1, 4 and 5.1 to 5.3.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">The three diamonds are the artist's approvals: the master plan, the master and the test pressing; nothing proceeds without a recorded approval. What a lender should take away is control: every lacquer, father, mother, stamper, press cycle and material lot gets an identity that knows its parents, so a complaint resolves backwards in minutes. Every record passes inline optical inspection; audio is compared on samples, first-off per stamper and more often as a stamper ages. At Making Vinyl Europe this traceability was what the industry responded to most; that is supplier feedback, not buyer validation. Plan B measures every stamper fully from the first release. Sources: process-flow.md; traceability.md; quality-automation.md; business plan B, sections 5.1 and 5.2.</aside>
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<aside class="notes">The three diamonds are the artist's approvals: the master plan, the master and the test pressing; nothing proceeds without a recorded approval. What an investor should take away is control: every lacquer, father, mother, stamper, press cycle and material lot gets an identity that knows its parents, so a complaint resolves backwards in minutes. Every record passes inline optical inspection; audio is compared on samples, first-off per stamper and more often as a stamper ages. At Making Vinyl Europe this traceability was what the industry responded to most; that is supplier feedback, not buyer validation. Plan B measures every stamper fully from the first release. Sources: process-flow.md; traceability.md; quality-automation.md; business plan B, sections 5.1 and 5.2.</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md; scale.md; crane-workshop-tours.md; Payap rezoning: land-listings/payap/rezoning-2026-10-20.md (Town Planning Act B.E. 2562, section 35; the planning department's amendment work plan, ~70 to 82 weeks). Render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan B preset (figure 9). The 60 × 25 m hall is the Mueang Chi design; the layout is fixed once a plot passes zoning and lease-ability.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">The strategy is a long lease of raw land with a purpose-built plant: it keeps an estimated 12M to 32M THB of land purchase out of the round, but there is no land to pledge, so the lease must give the company the buildings and the right to mortgage them. Mueang Chi in Lamphun is the working candidate; its zoning is still unverified. Payap University land in Chiang Mai stays an option: its first plot is zoned residential, and Payap says it can be rezoned. That is a city-plan amendment the planning department schedules at about 16 to 19 months, so it would move first production unless it starts now; we need the plot and the planning office's answer in writing. Sources: business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md.</aside>
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<aside class="notes">The strategy is a long lease of raw land with a purpose-built plant: it keeps an estimated 12M to 32M THB of land purchase out of the round; the lease must give the company the buildings and the right to mortgage them. Mueang Chi in Lamphun is the working candidate; its zoning is unverified. Payap University land in Chiang Mai stays an option: its first plot is zoned residential; Payap says it can be rezoned. That is a city-plan amendment the planning department schedules at about 16 to 19 months, so it would move first production unless it starts now; we need the plot and the planning office's answer in writing. Sources: business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md.</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> total-investment.md "Two plans" ("What decides between them"); revenue-model.md "Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B"; business plan B, sections 1, 8.2, 8.4 and 9.4; fleet-calculator.html, presets planA and planB; sustainability.md "Leasing instead (Plan A)" (PPA terms 15 to 25 years) and "PV, not solar thermal"; boi.md.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">Present this slide plainly; a lender will weigh it. Both plans make the same records, so demand does not decide between them. On the modelled numbers Plan B's extra 35M THB earns little: the same EBITDA in the revenue model, about 0.06M USD a year more in the calculator for the PPA bill the owned array avoids, more depreciation and a longer payback. Its case is ownership and control: no long power contract on the roof, full stamper metrology for the traceability pitch, tours and the Payap programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, local service. Why not A? Its better modelled return leaves those items to finance or contract later. Sources: total-investment.md; business plan B, section 8.2.</aside>
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<aside class="notes">Present this slide plainly; an investor will weigh it. Both plans make the same records, so demand does not decide between them. On the modelled numbers Plan B's extra 35M THB earns little: the same EBITDA in the revenue model, about 0.06M USD a year more in the calculator for the PPA bill the owned array avoids, more depreciation and a longer payback. Its case is ownership and control: no long power contract on the roof, full stamper metrology for the traceability pitch, tours and the Payap programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, local service. Why not A? Its better modelled return leaves those items to finance or contract later. Sources: total-investment.md; business plan B, section 8.2.</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> revenue-model.md "Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)"; business plan B, section 9.4. Estimates, mature year at 60 % specials; depreciation on Plan B's blocks; payback is EBITDA on the plan price including the reserve. Plan A for comparison: operating profit -0.41 / 1.33 / 3.54M USD.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">These are mature-year pictures for Plan B, not a forecast. Each column is internally consistent: adverse pairs low volume with the low price, the high cost, the high capital and the high overheads. The central case gives EBITDA of about USD 1.73M, roughly 57M THB, and operating profit of about 1.24M after Plan B's depreciation; it breaks even at about 0.24 million records. Lenders should read the adverse column: it loses about 0.55M USD, and the central margin of about 47 % is too good to trust until indirect labour, freight, commissions and the cost of specials are in. Why not A? Same EBITDA, less depreciation: 1.33M central. Sources: revenue-model.md; business plan B, section 9.4.</aside>
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<aside class="notes">These are mature-year pictures for Plan B, not a forecast. Each column is internally consistent: adverse pairs low volume with the low price, the high cost, the high capital and the high overheads. The central case gives EBITDA of about USD 1.73M, roughly 57M THB, and operating profit of about 1.24M after Plan B's depreciation; it breaks even at about 0.24 million records. Investors should read the adverse column: it loses about 0.55M USD, and the central margin of about 47 % is too good to trust until indirect labour, freight, commissions and the cost of specials are in. Why not A? Same EBITDA, less depreciation: 1.33M central. Sources: revenue-model.md; business plan B, section 9.4.</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, section 9.4 and figure 12; fleet-calculator.html, presets planB and planA, cash view (values read from the page, October 2026); revenue-model.md. Estimates.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">This curve is the calculator's, not the operating table's: 850,000 records at the team's faster Duplex planning rate, its own cost build-up including biomass fuel, no PPA bill because Plan B owns the array, and a ramp of 35, 70 and 90 % before the mature year. Year 0 is the midpoint investment plus a 15M THB reserve, 6.56M USD. On that basis Plan B is back to zero in year 4.2, with an IRR of about 22 % and an NPV of about 4.7M USD at 10 %. Pre-tax, pre-financing, no terminal value. Why not A? Its curve turns earlier on less capital. Put the adverse case beside it: about 37 years. Sources: fleet-calculator.html; business plan B, section 9.4.</aside>
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<aside class="notes">This curve is the calculator's, not the operating table's: 850,000 records at the team's faster Duplex rate, its own costs including biomass fuel, no PPA bill because Plan B owns the array, and a ramp of 35, 70 and 90 %. Year 0 is the midpoint investment plus a 15M THB reserve, 6.56M USD. On that basis Plan B is back to zero in year 4.2, with an IRR of about 22 % and an NPV of about 4.7M USD at 10 %. Pre-tax, no terminal value; with no loan, also the shareholders' return. Why not A? Its curve turns earlier on less capital. Put the adverse case beside it: about 37 years. Sources: fleet-calculator.html; business plan B, section 9.4.</aside>
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<!-- 12 -->
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<section class="slide s11" data-title="BOI and financing">
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<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>BOI promotion and financing</div>
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<h2>Duty-free machinery under BOI, debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1</h2>
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<h2>Duty-free machinery under BOI; the shareholders fund the whole plant</h2>
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<div class="bd">
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<div class="boi">
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<div class="r"><div class="k">Category</div><div class="x">Basic plastic consumer-goods manufacturing (Category 6), incentive Group B: no tax holiday on the core activity. Sub-code to confirm with a BOI-registered consultant.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag no">To confirm</span></div></div>
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<div class="r"><div class="k">Privileges</div><div class="x">Machinery import duty exemption, with import VAT; 100 % foreign ownership; visas and work permits through the One Stop Service; raw-material duty relief for export production.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag ok">Group B core</span></div></div>
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<div class="r"><div class="k">Upgrades</div><div class="x">Smart and Sustainable Industry (15/2565, refreshed July 2025): typically 3 years of CIT exemption, capped around 50 % of the upgrade spend; R&D merit at 1 % of revenue adds 1 to 3 years.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag md">To structure</span></div></div>
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<div class="r"><div class="k">Solar</div><div class="x">No longer promoted since 1 July 2025 (Announcement 3/2568): Plan B's owned array earns the bill saving, no tax benefit. The 271 kWh battery may still qualify, capped at 12M THB per MW.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag hi">Solar dropped</span></div></div>
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<div class="r"><div class="k">Conditions</div><div class="x">Debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1 for the life of the privileges; minimum 1M THB excluding land and working capital; modern machinery; progress and annual reports; machinery imported within ~30 months, full operation by ~36 months.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag md">Binding</span></div></div>
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<div class="r"><div class="k">Conditions</div><div class="x">Debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1 for the life of the privileges, met with no debt; minimum 1M THB excluding land and working capital; modern machinery; progress and annual reports; machinery imported within ~30 months, full operation by ~36 months.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag md">Binding</span></div></div>
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<div class="r"><div class="k">Process</div><div class="x">e-Investment filing and analyst meeting; ~40 working days to a decision under 200M THB, 60 to 90 above; 4 to 6 months in practice. No machinery order before the certificate.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag no">Phase 0</span></div></div>
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<div class="r"><div class="k">Without BOI</div><div class="x">~5 % duty on ~2.3M USD of imported machinery (~0.11M USD) and ~0.17M USD of import VAT up front <span class="e">est.</span></div><div class="st"><span class="tag no">Avoided</span></div></div>
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</div>
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<h3>Funding need, Plan B: reserve in, no contingency</h3>
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<div class="need">
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<div class="card warn"><div class="v ac">~217M THB</div><div class="l">~6.56M USD at the midpoint, labelled ~215M; ~156M to 277M low to high</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="v">~54M THB</div><div class="l">equity at least: a quarter of the funding at the 3:1 ceiling (arithmetic)</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="v">All equity</div><div class="l">share capital paid in by the shareholders; no bank loan planned</div></div>
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</div>
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<div class="share">
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<h3>Shareholding</h3>
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<div class="bar"><i class="a"></i><i class="c"></i></div>
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<div class="lbl">
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<div><b class="ac">At least 60 %</b><span>the lead investor: at least ~32M THB</span></div>
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<div><b>At most 40 %</b><span>co-investors (Ploy Printing as intended strategic co-investor, the founders, others): at most ~22M THB</span></div>
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<div><b class="ac">At least 60 %</b><span>the lead investor: at least ~130M THB</span></div>
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<div><b>At most 40 %</b><span>co-investors (Ploy Printing as intended strategic co-investor, the founders, others): at most ~87M THB</span></div>
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</div>
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<p class="nt">At the ~54M THB equity floor and one share price, arithmetic only: share price, valuation and in-kind shares not agreed. Terms in the shareholders' agreement.</p>
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<p class="nt">Of ~217M THB of share capital at one share price, arithmetic only: share price, valuation and in-kind shares not agreed. Terms in the shareholders' agreement.</p>
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</div>
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<dl class="dl" style="margin-top:16px;grid-template-columns:130px 1fr;gap:12px 18px">
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<dt>Collateral</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">The machinery and equipment, in Plan B including the owned PV array and battery. The building only if the lease grants its ownership and the right to mortgage it. No land collateral: the site is a long lease of raw land.</dd>
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<dt>Collateral</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">None pledged: the machinery, with Plan B's owned PV array and battery, stays free to secure a loan if one is ever needed; the building only if the lease grants ownership and the right to mortgage it. The land is leased.</dd>
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<dt>Use of funds</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">Equipment (presses, metal path, metrology, lab) ~85M THB; building, crane, workshop and corridor ~40M; utilities ~35M; solar and battery ~15M; software, cassette and CD-R, freight, working capital and phase 0 ~28M (block midpoints <span class="e">est.</span>), plus the reserve, in tranches (slide 17).</dd>
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</dl>
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<p class="tbd">Financing structure to be agreed: no loan terms, interest rate or debt-service figures are on file.</p>
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<p class="tbd">Share capital called in instalments against the tranches; the call schedule and the shareholders' agreement to be agreed.</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> boi.md; business plan B, sections 1 ("The ask"), 6.1, 7.1, 8.1, 8.4 and 12.2; total-investment.md "Launch plant" and "Two plans" (shareholding, 20 October 2026). Equity floor, the 60/40 amounts and use-of-funds groups are arithmetic on the plan's figures, before financing costs.</p>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> boi.md; business plan B, sections 1 ("The ask"), 6.1, 7.1, 8.1, 8.4 and 12.2; total-investment.md "Launch plant" and "Two plans" (shareholding and funding, 20 October 2026). The 60/40 amounts and use-of-funds groups are arithmetic on the plan's figures.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">Vinyl pressing lands in BOI Group B: duty-free machinery, full foreign ownership and work permits, no tax holiday on the core activity. Solar is no longer promoted; Plan B owns its array for the bill. The condition that shapes financing is debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1: at least a quarter of Plan B's 217M, about 54M THB, is equity. The lead investor holds at least 60 % of the company, so at most 40 % is open to co-investors; at that floor and one share price, about 32M and 22M THB, arithmetic only. No loan terms are on file. Collateral: machinery, array, battery; the land is leased. Sources: boi.md; business plan B, sections 7.1 and 12.2.</aside>
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<aside class="notes">Vinyl pressing lands in BOI Group B: duty-free machinery, full foreign ownership and work permits, no tax holiday on the core activity. Solar is no longer promoted; Plan B owns its array for the bill. The shareholders fund the whole plant, about 217M THB, as share capital; no bank loan is planned, so BOI's 3:1 debt-to-equity ceiling is met with no debt. The lead investor holds at least 60 % of the company, so at most 40 % is open to co-investors: about 130M and 87M THB at one share price, arithmetic only. The capital is called in instalments against the tranches. Nothing is pledged. Sources: boi.md; total-investment.md; business plan B, sections 7.1 and 12.2.</aside>
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</section>
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<!-- share price, after BOI and financing -->
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<section class="slide s11b" data-title="Share price">
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<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Share price: what the 40 % could cost</div>
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<h2>At par, the 40 % costs ~21.7M THB; what it is worth later is a range</h2>
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<h2>At par, the 40 % is ~86.8M THB; what it is worth later is a range</h2>
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<div class="bd">
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<div>
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<h3>Founding round at par, pari passu: Plan B at the 3:1 equity floor</h3>
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<h3>Founding round at par, pari passu: Plan B's ~217M as share capital</h3>
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<table class="tb sp">
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<tr><th>100 THB a share <span class="e">example</span></th><th class="n">Shares</th><th class="n">THB</th></tr>
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<tr><td>The lead investor, at least 60 %</td><td class="n">325,500</td><td class="n">32.6M</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Co-investors, at most 40 %</td><td class="n">217,000</td><td class="n ac">21.7M</td></tr>
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<tr class="tot"><td>Equity at the floor: a quarter of ~217M</td><td class="n">542,500</td><td class="n">54.25M</td></tr>
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<tr><td>The lead investor, at least 60 %</td><td class="n">1,302,000</td><td class="n">130.2M</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Co-investors, at most 40 %</td><td class="n">868,000</td><td class="n ac">86.8M</td></tr>
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<tr class="tot"><td>Share capital: all of Plan B, no loan</td><td class="n">2,170,000</td><td class="n">217M</td></tr>
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</table>
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<p class="nt">With a third or half of the funding as equity the price stays 100 THB and the 40 % costs ~28.9M or ~43.4M. Thai law: no shares below par, par at least 5 THB, a premium only if the memorandum allows it.</p>
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<p class="nt">Called in instalments against the tranches (slide 17): at least 25 % (~54M THB) on subscription. Thai law: no shares below par, par at least 5 THB, a premium only if the memorandum allows it.</p>
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<h3 style="margin-top:34px">Development premium, only for documented costs</h3>
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<div class="dev">
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<div class="card"><div class="v">105 THB <span class="e">+5 %</span></div><div class="l">phase 0 spending, 2.6M THB, credited: the 40 % costs 22.7M</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="v">118 THB <span class="e">+18 %</span></div><div class="l">10M THB credited for pre-round work: the 40 % costs 25.7M</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="v">101 THB <span class="e">+1 %</span></div><div class="l">phase 0 spending, 2.6M THB, credited: the 40 % costs 87.8M</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="v">105 THB <span class="e">+5 %</span></div><div class="l">10M THB credited for pre-round work: the 40 % costs 90.8M</div></div>
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</div>
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<p class="vcl"><b>A financial co-investor today</b> (venture-capital method, first-stage target return 40 to 60 %, central case in year 5): <b>18 to 236 THB a share</b> depending on the multiple; nothing in the adverse case.</p>
|
||||
<p class="vcl"><b>A financial co-investor today</b> (venture-capital method, first-stage target return 40 to 60 %, year 5): <b>12 to 73 THB a share</b> in the central case, 2 to 10 in the adverse: below par in both.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3>Value of one 100 THB share once the plant runs <span class="e">est.</span></h3>
|
||||
<div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:6px"><span><i style="background:var(--acf)"></i>Range across market multiples, after the illiquidity discount</span><span><i style="background:transparent;height:2px;border-top:2px dashed var(--bf);border-radius:0;vertical-align:4px"></i>Par paid</span></div>
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chShare" width="840" height="448" viewBox="0 0 840 448" role="img" aria-label="Value per share once the plant runs, by case, against the par price paid"></svg>
|
||||
<p class="nt">EV/EBITDA 4.7x (Thai listed plastics and packaging) to 14.9x (emerging-market industries), less a 20 to 35 % discount for a private minority stake; net debt the most 3:1 allows, ~163M THB; 542,500 shares.</p>
|
||||
<div class="card warn" style="margin-top:16px;padding:16px 22px"><p class="t" style="font-size:17px"><b>Ranges, not a valuation or an offer price.</b> The adverse case is the honest one: the central margin (~47 %) is far above the 15 to 25 % plants earn. No loan terms are on file; co-investors need pre-emption and information rights.</p></div>
|
||||
<p class="nt">EV/EBITDA 4.7x (Thai listed plastics and packaging) to 14.9x (emerging-market industries), less a 20 to 35 % discount for a private minority stake; no loan, net debt 0; 2,170,000 shares.</p>
|
||||
<div class="card warn" style="margin-top:16px;padding:16px 22px"><p class="t" style="font-size:17px"><b>Ranges, not a valuation or an offer price.</b> Adverse is the honest case (central margin ~47 %, plants earn 15 to 25 %): with no loan a share keeps some value but loses most of it, and at Thai listed multiples even central is below par. Co-investors need pre-emption, information rights and calls tied to the tranches.</p></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> share-price.md (October 2026); total-investment.md "Two plans"; revenue-model.md "Operating pictures"; Damodaran industry EV/EBITDA and betas (January 2026), country risk premiums (July 2026), illiquidity discount (2005), venture target returns (2009); ThaiBMA 10-year yield 2.30 % (19 October 2026); SET peers via stockanalysis.com (20 October 2026); Civil and Commercial Code ss. 1105, 1117, 1222. Estimates.</p>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> share-price.md (October 2026); total-investment.md "Two plans"; revenue-model.md "Operating pictures"; Damodaran industry EV/EBITDA and betas (January 2026), country risk premiums (July 2026), illiquidity discount (2005), venture target returns (2009); ThaiBMA 10-year yield 2.30 % (19 October 2026); SET peers via stockanalysis.com (20 October 2026); Civil and Commercial Code ss. 1105, 1117, 1120 to 1125, 1222. Estimates.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Before the plant exists a share is worth the cash behind it, so the defensible founding price is par, the same for everyone. At 100 THB a share and the 54M THB equity floor, the 40 % is 217,000 shares, about 21.7M THB. Crediting documented phase 0 spending adds 2 to 5 %; credit beyond that needs a documented basis. Once the plant runs, market multiples put a share anywhere from nothing in the adverse case to many times par in the central case; a financial investor at venture target returns would pay at most about par today. Hence pre-emption and information rights for the 40 %. No loan terms are on file. Sources: share-price.md; revenue-model.md.</aside>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Before the plant exists a share is worth the cash behind it, so the defensible founding price is par, the same for everyone. The shareholders fund all of Plan B as share capital: at 100 THB the 40 % is 868,000 shares, about 86.8M THB, called in instalments against the tranches. Crediting documented phase 0 spending adds about 1 %. With no loan, the adverse case keeps 11 to 42 THB of every 100; at Thai listed multiples even the central case is below par; only emerging-market multiples and the favourable case are well above. A financial investor at venture target returns would pay below par. Hence pre-emption, information rights and calls tied to the tranches. Sources: share-price.md; revenue-model.md.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 13 -->
|
||||
@@ -953,9 +953,9 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<div class="ask" style="display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:44px;align-items:start">
|
||||
<div><h3>Now: phase 0</h3><div class="v">1.3M to 2.6M THB</div><p class="s" style="margin-top:8px">~USD 40k to 80k over 3 to 6 months, part of the plan price: the BOI consultant, Thai counsel for the lease, zoning and the shareholders' agreement, a soil test, the quotes.</p></div>
|
||||
<div><h3>On offer to co-investors</h3><div class="v">Up to 40 %</div><p class="s" style="margin-top:8px">of the company, beside the lead investor's at least 60 %: Ploy Printing, the founders, others. Share price not agreed: par is the default, ranges on slide 13; terms in the shareholders' agreement.</p></div>
|
||||
<div><h3>On offer to co-investors</h3><div class="v">Up to 40 %</div><p class="s" style="margin-top:8px">of the company, beside the lead investor's at least 60 %: Ploy Printing, the founders, others. At par ~87M THB of the ~217M share capital; price not agreed, ranges on slide 13.</p></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<h3 style="margin-top:24px">Then Plan B at ~215M THB in tranches: share of the investment before the reserve <span class="e">est.</span></h3>
|
||||
<h3 style="margin-top:24px">Then Plan B at ~215M THB, called in tranches: share of the investment before the reserve <span class="e">est.</span></h3>
|
||||
<table class="tb tr">
|
||||
<tr><th>#</th><th>Trigger</th><th>Covers</th><th class="n">Share</th><th class="n">M THB</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>0</td><td>Now</td><td>Phase 0 work</td><td class="n">1 to 2 %</td><td class="n">1.3 to 2.6</td></tr>
|
||||
@@ -977,8 +977,8 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<h3 style="margin-top:26px">Decisions for the investor</h3>
|
||||
<ul class="list sm">
|
||||
<li>The equity and debt mix within 3:1 (equity at least ~54M THB)</li>
|
||||
<li>The shareholders' agreement: the split of the 40 %, board, reserved matters and tranche releases</li>
|
||||
<li>Funded by the shareholders as share capital, no bank loan: the call schedule against the tranches</li>
|
||||
<li>The shareholders' agreement: the split of the 40 %, board, reserved matters, calls and tranche releases</li>
|
||||
<li>How quotes landing above the plan price are funded</li>
|
||||
<li>Each Plan B item weighed against its lever; CD replication before the BOI filing; hedging of the EUR orders</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
@@ -989,9 +989,9 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<div class="u"><div class="h">Revenue then funds</div><div class="x">The second Duplex system (~15.4M THB at the midpoint <span class="e">est.</span>), PV on the PV-ready office roof and canopies (~120 kWp, ~2.4M to 3.1M THB <span class="e">est.</span>), the phase 2 building.</div></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 8.3, 12.2, 14.1 and 14.2; total-investment.md "Two plans" (shareholding); roadmap.md phases 0 to 2. Tranche amounts are the shares applied to Plan B's ~201.6M THB before the reserve (arithmetic). Gates before any order: market validation, the BOI certificate, and land (zoning, lease terms, soil).</p>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 8.3, 12.2, 14.1 and 14.2; total-investment.md "Two plans" (shareholding and funding); roadmap.md phases 0 to 2. Tranche amounts are the shares applied to Plan B's ~201.6M THB before the reserve (arithmetic). Gates before any order: market validation, the BOI certificate, and land (zoning, lease terms, soil).</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Now: approve phase 0, about 1.3M to 2.6M THB over three to six months: the BOI consultant, counsel for the lease and the shareholders' agreement, the soil test and the quotes. Then, once validation, the BOI certificate and the land gates clear, a commitment in principle to Plan B at about 215M THB, released in tranches. On offer to co-investors: up to 40 %, as the lead investor holds at least 60 %; share price not agreed, par the default (slide 13). Decisions: the equity and debt mix within 3:1, the shareholders' agreement, funding quotes that land high. Why not A? It stays on file as the lowest-capital variant. Sources: business plan B, sections 8.3, 12.2 and 14.</aside>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Now: approve phase 0, about 1.3M to 2.6M THB over three to six months: the BOI consultant, counsel for the lease and the shareholders' agreement, the soil test and the quotes. Then, once validation, the BOI certificate and the land gates clear, a commitment in principle to Plan B at about 215M THB, paid in as share capital in tranches. On offer to co-investors: up to 40 %, as the lead investor holds at least 60 %; share price not agreed, par the default (slide 13). Decisions: the call schedule, the shareholders' agreement, funding quotes that land high. Why not A? It stays on file as the lowest-capital variant. Sources: business plan B, sections 8.3, 12.2 and 14.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
@@ -1026,7 +1026,7 @@ const SRC = {
|
||||
pv: "sustainability.md 'What ~520 kWp means on the grid'; business plan B, section 1",
|
||||
tl: "project-timeline.md, Gantt (August 2026 calendar)",
|
||||
bp10: "Business plan B, section 10",
|
||||
sp: "share-price.md (October 2026): par round, development premium, value per share (Damodaran EV/EBITDA January 2026, SET peers 20 October 2026, illiquidity discount 20 to 35 %), venture-capital method"
|
||||
sp: "share-price.md (October 2026, all equity: Plan B's ~217M as share capital, net debt 0): par round and call schedule, development premium, value per share (Damodaran EV/EBITDA January 2026, SET peers 20 October 2026, illiquidity discount 20 to 35 %), venture-capital method"
|
||||
};
|
||||
const DATA = {
|
||||
fx: { usdThb: 33, src: "ti" },
|
||||
@@ -1064,18 +1064,20 @@ const DATA = {
|
||||
},
|
||||
steam: { biomass: 0.67, electric: 4.9, src: "bio" },
|
||||
solar: { used: 633, plant: 1036, share: 61, src: "pv" },
|
||||
/* share price for the 40 %: founding round at par (A), development premium (B), value per share once running (C,
|
||||
floor share count, net debt 162.75M, after a 20 to 35 % illiquidity discount), VC-method price today (D) */
|
||||
/* share price for the 40 %: all equity (user, 20 October 2026: the shareholders fund the whole plant as share
|
||||
capital, no bank loan), so Plan B's ~217M at par 100 THB = 2,170,000 shares, net debt 0. Founding round at par (A),
|
||||
first call at least 25 % on subscription, development premium (B), value per share once running (C, after a 20 to
|
||||
35 % illiquidity discount), VC-method price today (D, first stage 40 to 60 %) */
|
||||
share: {
|
||||
par: 100, shares: 542500, equity: 54.25, lead: { sh: 325500, thb: 32.55 }, open: { sh: 217000, thb: 21.7 }, src: "sp",
|
||||
dev: [ { pre: 2.6, price: 105, prem: 4.8, cost40: 22.7 }, { pre: 10, price: 118, prem: 18.4, cost40: 25.7 } ],
|
||||
value: { axis: 2600, src: "sp", rows: [
|
||||
{ k: "adv", label: "Adverse", sub: "EBITDA 7.6M THB a year", lo: 0, hi: 0, neg: 1 },
|
||||
{ k: "norm", label: "Industry-norm margin", sub: "20 % of central revenue", lo: 0, hi: 290, x: "up to 2.9x par", faint: 1 },
|
||||
{ k: "cen", label: "Central", sub: "EBITDA 57.1M THB a year", lo: 126, hi: 1016, x: "1.3x to 10x par" },
|
||||
{ k: "fav", label: "Favourable", sub: "EBITDA 125.1M THB a year", lo: 508, hi: 2512, x: "5x to 25x par" }
|
||||
par: 100, shares: 2170000, equity: 217, lead: { sh: 1302000, thb: 130.2 }, open: { sh: 868000, thb: 86.8 }, firstCall: 54.25, netDebt: 0, src: "sp",
|
||||
dev: [ { pre: 2.6, price: 101.2, prem: 1.2, cost40: 87.8 }, { pre: 10, price: 104.6, prem: 4.6, cost40: 90.8 } ],
|
||||
value: { axis: 750, ticks: [0, 250, 500, 750], src: "sp", rows: [
|
||||
{ k: "adv", label: "Adverse", sub: "EBITDA 7.6M THB a year", lo: 11, hi: 42, x: "0.1x to 0.4x par" },
|
||||
{ k: "norm", label: "Industry-norm margin", sub: "20 % of central revenue", lo: 34, hi: 133, x: "0.3x to 1.3x par", faint: 1 },
|
||||
{ k: "cen", label: "Central", sub: "EBITDA 57.1M THB a year", lo: 80, hi: 314, x: "0.8x to 3.1x par" },
|
||||
{ k: "fav", label: "Favourable", sub: "EBITDA 125.1M THB a year", lo: 176, hi: 688, x: "1.8x to 6.9x par" }
|
||||
] },
|
||||
vc: { lo: 18, hi: 236, rate: [40, 60], src: "sp" }
|
||||
vc: { lo: 12, hi: 73, adv: [2, 10], rate: [40, 60], src: "sp" }
|
||||
},
|
||||
gantt: { from: "2026-08-01", to: "2029-07-31", src: "tl", rows: [
|
||||
{ g: "Phase 0", label: "Market validation", s: "2026-08-01", e: "2026-11-29" },
|
||||
@@ -1238,14 +1240,16 @@ function chSolar() {
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: W - 2, y: 64, "text-anchor": "end", fill: C.mu, "font-size": 14 }, "~" + D.used + " of ~" + D.plant.toLocaleString("en-US") + " MWh");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* value of one share once running: a bar per case from the lowest to the highest market multiple, par paid as a dashed line */
|
||||
/* value of one share once running (all equity, net debt 0): a bar per case from the lowest to the highest market multiple,
|
||||
par paid as a dashed line */
|
||||
function chShare() {
|
||||
const s = document.getElementById("chShare"); if (!s) return;
|
||||
const S = DATA.share, D = S.value, L = 300, R = 828, T = 36, rh = 94, X = v => L + Math.max(0, v) / D.axis * (R - L);
|
||||
const B = T + D.rows.length * rh, nf = v => v.toLocaleString("en-US");
|
||||
for (const t of [0, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000, 2500]) {
|
||||
const tk = D.ticks, tl = tk[tk.length - 1];
|
||||
for (const t of tk) {
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: X(t), x2: X(t), y1: T - 4, y2: B, class: t ? "gr" : "ax" });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(t), y: B + 24, "text-anchor": t ? "middle" : "start", "font-size": 14 }, nf(t));
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(t), y: B + 24, "text-anchor": t === 0 ? "start" : t === tl ? "end" : "middle", "font-size": 14 }, nf(t));
|
||||
}
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: B + 24, "font-size": 14, fill: C.dim }, "THB a share");
|
||||
const px = X(S.par);
|
||||
@@ -1256,11 +1260,6 @@ function chShare() {
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: y + 38, fill: C.tx, "font-size": 19, "font-weight": 600 }, r.label);
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: y + 63, fill: C.mu, "font-size": 15 }, r.sub);
|
||||
el(s, "rect", { x: L, y: y + 44, width: R - L, height: 18, rx: 3, fill: C.track });
|
||||
if (r.neg) {
|
||||
el(s, "rect", { x: L - 1, y: y + 38, width: 6, height: 30, rx: 2, fill: C.negf });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: px + 10, y: y + 32, fill: C.neg, "font-size": 16.5, "font-weight": 600 }, "~0: the debt exceeds the plant's value at every multiple");
|
||||
return;
|
||||
}
|
||||
el(s, "rect", { x: X(r.lo), y: y + 44, width: Math.max(4, X(r.hi) - X(r.lo)), height: 18, rx: 3, fill: C.acf, "fill-opacity": r.faint ? 0.55 : 0.92 });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: Math.max(X(r.lo), px + 10), y: y + 32, fill: r.faint ? C.tx2 : C.ac, "font-size": 16.5, "font-weight": 700 }, nf(r.lo) + " to " + nf(r.hi) + " THB \u00b7 " + r.x);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in new issue
Block a user