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feat: ML flood-event forecasting from 8 years of gauge history
Add src/ml/ package predicting, per station and per 6/12/24 h horizon,
the probability of exceeding warning (3.0 m) and danger (4.5 m) levels
plus expected peak level, trained on the 592k-row PostgreSQL history:

- features.py: hourly grid with coverage gating and no future leakage;
  upstream stations enter at empirically measured travel-time lags
  (P.20 +17h ... P.103 +1h vs P.1); hour-of-day deliberately excluded
  (it encodes the scrape schedule, not hydrology)
- train.py: HistGradientBoosting regression + warn/danger classifier
  heads per station x horizon, >=30-positives gate with calibrated
  sigmoid-on-regression fallback, strict temporal splits, per-event
  lead-time evaluation; guards against sklearn 1.9.0 crash on
  degenerate feature columns
- predict.py: bundle loading with feature-name checks, heuristic
  fallback tier, get_latest_forecasts() for the API; raises when no
  models are trained so the endpoint 503s instead of serving
  persistence output as forecasts
- data.py: Postgres-first loader (FLOOD_ML_DB_URL override), HTTP API
  fallback (flagged: that path backfills synthetic discharge), csv.gz
  cache
- /forecast endpoint (15-min TTL cache) + dashboard flood-risk panel
  (hidden until models exist)
- docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md: full system doc with measured deployment
  numbers (~335 MB RSS, CPU negligible, ~6 min full retrain) and
  retraining policy

Validation: out-of-sample backtest of the record 2024 flood season
(train <= Aug 2024) alerted 24-48 h ahead of the Oct 5 peak; 2025-26
test split: P.1 6h PR-AUC 0.974, recall 98.3% at 1% false-alarm rate.

Also: fix P.81 station coordinates (was Ban Pong/Ratchaburi, 493 km
out of basin; now 18.6936 N 99.0819 E per RID station page), pin
scikit-learn==1.9.0 and numpy<2, gitignore model artifacts (~100 MB,
train on the server via scripts/train_flood_model.py).
2026-08-10 12:49:47 +07:00

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# Python
__pycache__/
*.py[cod]
*$py.class
*.so
.Python
build/
develop-eggs/
dist/
downloads/
eggs/
.eggs/
lib/
lib64/
parts/
sdist/
var/
wheels/
share/python-wheels/
*.egg-info/
.installed.cfg
*.egg
PIPFILE.lock
# Virtual environments
.env
.venv
env/
venv/
ENV/
env.bak/
venv.bak/
# IDE
.vscode/
.idea/
*.swp
*.swo
*~
# Kiro IDE (keep local only)
.kiro/
# Logs
*.log
logs/
water_monitor.log
water_monitor_performance.log
# Database files
*.db
*.sqlite
*.sqlite3
water_levels.db
demo_water_sqlite.db
# Configuration files with secrets
.env.local
.env.production
config.local.py
# Docker
.dockerignore
# OS
.DS_Store
.DS_Store?
._*
.Spotlight-V100
.Trashes
ehthumbs.db
Thumbs.db
# Temporary files
*.tmp
*.temp
temp/
tmp/
# Coverage reports
htmlcov/
.tox/
.nox/
.coverage
.coverage.*
.cache
nosetests.xml
coverage.xml
*.cover
*.py,cover
.hypothesis/
.pytest_cache/
cover/
# Jupyter Notebook
.ipynb_checkpoints
# pyenv
.python-version
# pipenv
Pipfile.lock
# PEP 582
__pypackages__/
# Celery
celerybeat-schedule
celerybeat.pid
# SageMath parsed files
*.sage.py
# Environments
.env
.env.local
.env.development.local
.env.test.local
.env.production.local
# mypy
.mypy_cache/
.dmypy.json
dmypy.json
# Pyre type checker
.pyre/
# pytype static type analyzer
.pytype/
# Cython debug symbols
cython_debug/
# Docker volumes
vm_data/
grafana_data/
# Runtime station config (persisted CRUD); bundled default lives in src/data/
/stations.json
# Ruflo local secrets and runtime data
.env.*.local
.claude-flow/data/
.claude-flow/logs/
.claude-flow/sessions/
# Trained flood-forecast model artifacts (produced on the server, ~100 MB; see docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md)
models/*.joblib
models/cache/
models/metrics.json