grabowski
4358d52d55
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Add src/ml/ package predicting, per station and per 6/12/24 h horizon, the probability of exceeding warning (3.0 m) and danger (4.5 m) levels plus expected peak level, trained on the 592k-row PostgreSQL history: - features.py: hourly grid with coverage gating and no future leakage; upstream stations enter at empirically measured travel-time lags (P.20 +17h ... P.103 +1h vs P.1); hour-of-day deliberately excluded (it encodes the scrape schedule, not hydrology) - train.py: HistGradientBoosting regression + warn/danger classifier heads per station x horizon, >=30-positives gate with calibrated sigmoid-on-regression fallback, strict temporal splits, per-event lead-time evaluation; guards against sklearn 1.9.0 crash on degenerate feature columns - predict.py: bundle loading with feature-name checks, heuristic fallback tier, get_latest_forecasts() for the API; raises when no models are trained so the endpoint 503s instead of serving persistence output as forecasts - data.py: Postgres-first loader (FLOOD_ML_DB_URL override), HTTP API fallback (flagged: that path backfills synthetic discharge), csv.gz cache - /forecast endpoint (15-min TTL cache) + dashboard flood-risk panel (hidden until models exist) - docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md: full system doc with measured deployment numbers (~335 MB RSS, CPU negligible, ~6 min full retrain) and retraining policy Validation: out-of-sample backtest of the record 2024 flood season (train <= Aug 2024) alerted 24-48 h ahead of the Oct 5 peak; 2025-26 test split: P.1 6h PR-AUC 0.974, recall 98.3% at 1% false-alarm rate. Also: fix P.81 station coordinates (was Ban Pong/Ratchaburi, 493 km out of basin; now 18.6936 N 99.0819 E per RID station page), pin scikit-learn==1.9.0 and numpy<2, gitignore model artifacts (~100 MB, train on the server via scripts/train_flood_model.py).
131 lines
3.3 KiB
JSON
131 lines
3.3 KiB
JSON
{
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"1": {
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"code": "P.20",
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"thai_name": "บ้านเชียงดาว",
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"english_name": "Ban Chiang Dao",
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"latitude": 19.36731448032191,
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"longitude": 98.9688487015384,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"2": {
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"code": "P.75",
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"thai_name": "บ้านช่อแล",
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"english_name": "Ban Chai Lat",
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"latitude": 19.145972935976225,
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"longitude": 99.00735727149247,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"3": {
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"code": "P.92",
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"thai_name": "บ้านเมืองกึ๊ด",
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"english_name": "Ban Muang Aut",
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"latitude": 19.220518985435646,
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"longitude": 98.84733127007874,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"4": {
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"code": "P.4A",
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"thai_name": "บ้านแม่แตง",
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"english_name": "Ban Mae Taeng",
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"latitude": 19.1222679952378,
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"longitude": 98.94437462084075,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"5": {
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"code": "P.67",
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"thai_name": "บ้านแม่แต",
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"english_name": "Ban Tae",
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"latitude": 19.009762080002453,
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"longitude": 98.95978297135508,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"6": {
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"code": "P.21",
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"thai_name": "บ้านริมใต้",
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"english_name": "Ban Rim Tai",
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"latitude": 18.917459157963293,
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"longitude": 98.97018092996231,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"7": {
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"code": "P.103",
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"thai_name": "สะพานวงแหวนรอบ 3",
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"english_name": "Ring Bridge 3",
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"latitude": 18.86664807441675,
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"longitude": 98.9781107622432,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"8": {
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"code": "P.1",
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"thai_name": "สะพานนวรัฐ",
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"english_name": "Nawarat Bridge",
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"latitude": 18.7875,
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"longitude": 99.0045,
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"geohash": "w5q6uuhvfcfp25"
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},
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"9": {
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"code": "P.82",
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"thai_name": "บ้านสบวิน",
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"english_name": "Ban Sob win",
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"latitude": 18.6519444,
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"longitude": 98.69,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"10": {
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"code": "P.84",
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"thai_name": "บ้านพันตน",
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"english_name": "Ban Panton",
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"latitude": 18.591315274591334,
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"longitude": 98.79657058508496,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"11": {
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"code": "P.81",
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"thai_name": "บ้านโป่ง",
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"english_name": "Ban Pong",
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"latitude": 18.693611,
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"longitude": 99.081944,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"12": {
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"code": "P.5",
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"thai_name": "สะพานท่านาง",
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"english_name": "Tha Nang Bridge",
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"latitude": 18.580269437546555,
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"longitude": 99.01021397084362,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"13": {
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"code": "P.77",
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"thai_name": "บ้านสบแม่สะป๊วด",
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"english_name": "Baan Sop Mae Sapuord",
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"latitude": 18.433347475179602,
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"longitude": 99.08510036666527,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"14": {
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"code": "P.87",
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"thai_name": "บ้านป่าซาง",
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"english_name": "Ban Pa Sang",
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"latitude": 18.519121825282486,
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"longitude": 98.94224374138238,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"15": {
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"code": "P.76",
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"thai_name": "บ้านแม่อีไฮ",
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"english_name": "Banb Mae I Hai",
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"latitude": 18.141465831254404,
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"longitude": 98.89642508267181,
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"geohash": null
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},
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"16": {
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"code": "P.85",
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"thai_name": "บ้านหล่ายแก้ว",
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"english_name": "Baan Lai Kaew",
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"latitude": 18.17856361002219,
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"longitude": 98.63023114782287,
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"geohash": null
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}
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}
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