grabowski
32399f1899
The first ntfy cycle announced "Warning level at P.77" at 3.02 m. That gauge's 2.85 m threshold sat below its own dry-season baseline (2.6-2.7 m at 8-14 % channel capacity): P.77 had been "above warning" for 761 of the last 2 146 hours, at 22 % capacity. Across 2018-2024, 75-85 % capacity reads 3.35-4.57 m and 95-105 % reads 4.27-5.08 m; set 4.30 / 4.90. P.75 moved 2.75/3.50 -> 3.20/3.65 on the same evidence (2024: 3.45 / 3.72). The predictor already handles changed thresholds (regression-derived probabilities until the Oct 1 retrain). Second line of defence in notify.py: a clear->alert transition is only announced when RID's discharge_percent for the reading is >= 60 %, so a re-rated or datum-shifted gauge cannot page subscribers again. P.1 is exempt (its stages come from the inundation map, not capacity); readings without a capacity figure fall back to level only; the all-clear edge is never blocked. 3 tests.