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feat: hgb-v3 — Open-Meteo rain features clear the 12h warning gate
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The rolling-origin harness (models/eval_rain.json) showed catchment rain
halving flood-year Brier scores, cutting flood-regime MAE 20-40%, and
extending the hard 2024 leads (+6h -> +11h at P.1, +10h -> +19h at
P.103). Ported: train_all loads the catchment-mean series (use_rain /
--no-rain to opt out; without it bundles train as v2), predict fetches
live rain hourly and passes an empty series on failure so rain-trained
bundles serve with NaN features instead of tripping the feature guard,
and the leader worker persists hourly per-point + catchment-mean rows to
a new openmeteo_rain table.

Regenerated backtest: the 2024 record flood now gets a 13-HOUR WARNING
(alert 04:00 vs 17:00 crossing, river at 2.9m at alert time) — the >=12h
acceptance gate PASSES for the first time. Journey on that crossing:
v1 -18h, v2 +6h, v3 +13h. The marginal 2025 double-crest trades its
artifact +46h latch for a calibrated +2h with zero false alarms. P.1
MAE 4.9/7.2/8.7 cm at 6/12/24h. Docs updated throughout.
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grabowski
2026-08-12 17:05:01 +07:00
parent cbb3bf7369
commit df0ae8cda3
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@@ -204,7 +204,7 @@ Oct 2024 flood). Mae Kuang Udom Thara is the second upstream reservoir.
| Source | What | Access |
|---|---|---|
| **Open-Meteo** (<https://open-meteo.com>) | Hourly precip forecast ≤16 days, any lat/lon; **Historical Forecast API archive from 2021** (train on forecast-as-seen, leakage-free); Previous Runs API (fixed 1–7-day leads from Jan 2024); ERA5 back to 1940 | Free, no key, 10k calls/day, non-commercial w/ attribution |
| **Open-Meteo** (<https://open-meteo.com>) — ✅ **INGESTED** since 2026-08-12 (`src/ml/rain.py`): 5 upper-Ping catchment points feed the hgb-v3 model's rain features (trailing sums + forward-24h forecast, archive 2021+); the leader worker also persists hourly rows to the `openmeteo_rain` table | Hourly precip forecast ≤16 days, any lat/lon; **Historical Forecast API archive from 2021** (train on forecast-as-seen, leakage-free); Previous Runs API (fixed 1–7-day leads from Jan 2024); ERA5 back to 1940 | Free, no key, 10k calls/day, non-commercial w/ attribution |
| TMD NWP API (`https://data.tmd.go.th/nwpapi/v1/forecast/location/...`) | WRF 4.2 daily/hourly forecasts by place, processed ~06:00 daily | Free Bearer-token registration (`/nwpapi/doc/main/`) |
| GFS / ECMWF IFS open data | 0.25° global, 4×/day | Free (NOMADS / AWS / data.ecmwf.int); Open-Meteo already wraps both |