feat: forecast precompute + issued-forecast archive + dashboard overlay

The collection-leader worker now precomputes forecasts after every
scrape cycle: primes the /forecast cache (users never trigger the
multi-second inference — its TTL rises to 4500s so the hourly refresh
always wins) and persists every issued forecast to a new
forecast_history table keyed by (as_of, station, horizon) with
predicted max level, warn/danger probabilities, current level, and
model_version. This is the operational record the backtests lacked —
predicted-vs-actual becomes a simple join instead of retraining
historical models.

GET /api/forecast/history/{station} serves the archive (hours or
start/end + horizon filters, 5-min edge cache), and the station history
chart overlays 'Model 24 h peak (as issued)' as a dashed violet line
once data accumulates.

tests/test_dashboard.py

@@ -77,6 +77,8 @@ def test_dashboard_loads_station_history_chart():
     html = DASHBOARD_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8")
 
     assert "Station history" in html
+    assert "/api/forecast/history/" in html
+    assert "Model 24 h peak (as issued)" in html
     assert "PostgreSQL" not in html
     assert "/measurements/history/" in html
     assert "history-chart" in html

tests/test_forecast_history.py

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+"""Tests for the issued-forecast archive (store + API endpoint)."""
+
+import asyncio
+import datetime
+
+import pytest
+
+from src.forecast_history import ForecastHistoryStore
+
+
+def _rows(as_of="2026-08-12T10:00:00"):
+    return [
+        {
+            "as_of": as_of,
+            "station_code": "P.1",
+            "horizon_hours": h,
+            "predicted_max_level": 2.8 + h / 100,
+            "p_warning": 0.02,
+            "p_danger": 0.001,
+            "current_level": 2.76,
+            "model_version": "hgb-v1+test",
+            "trained_at": "2026-08-12T10:52:00",
+            "source": "model",
+        }
+        for h in (6, 12, 24)
+    ]
+
+
+class TestForecastHistoryStore:
+    @pytest.fixture
+    def store(self, tmp_path):
+        store = ForecastHistoryStore(f"sqlite:///{tmp_path}/fh.db", "sqlite")
+        assert store.connect()
+        return store
+
+    def test_rejects_non_sql(self):
+        with pytest.raises(ValueError):
+            ForecastHistoryStore("http://x", "victoriametrics")
+
+    def test_roundtrip_and_upsert(self, store):
+        assert store.save_rows(_rows()) == 3
+        # Same as_of again -> upsert, still 3 rows
+        assert store.save_rows(_rows()) == 3
+        rows = store.fetch("P.1")
+        assert len(rows) == 3
+        assert [r["horizon_hours"] for r in rows] == [6, 12, 24]
+        assert rows[2]["predicted_max_level"] == pytest.approx(3.04)
+        assert rows[0]["model_version"] == "hgb-v1+test"
+
+    def test_fetch_filters(self, store):
+        store.save_rows(_rows("2026-08-12T10:00:00"))
+        store.save_rows(_rows("2026-08-12T11:00:00"))
+        only_24 = store.fetch("P.1", horizon_hours=24)
+        assert len(only_24) == 2
+        assert all(r["horizon_hours"] == 24 for r in only_24)
+        windowed = store.fetch(
+            "P.1",
+            start=datetime.datetime(2026, 8, 12, 10, 30),
+            end=datetime.datetime(2026, 8, 12, 12, 0),
+        )
+        assert len(windowed) == 3  # only the 11:00 issue
+        assert store.fetch("P.99") == []
+
+    def test_skips_malformed_rows(self, store):
+        rows = _rows() + [{"station_code": None, "as_of": None}]
+        assert store.save_rows(rows) == 3
+
+
+class TestForecastHistoryEndpoint:
+    def test_endpoint_returns_rows(self, tmp_path, monkeypatch):
+        from src import web_api
+
+        store = ForecastHistoryStore(f"sqlite:///{tmp_path}/api-fh.db", "sqlite")
+        assert store.connect()
+        now = datetime.datetime.now().replace(minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0)
+        store.save_rows(_rows(now.isoformat()))
+        monkeypatch.setitem(web_api.app_state, "forecast_store", store)
+
+        rows = asyncio.run(
+            web_api.get_forecast_history(
+                "P.1", hours=48, start=None, end=None, horizon=24
+            )
+        )
+        assert len(rows) == 1
+        assert rows[0]["horizon_hours"] == 24
+        assert rows[0]["station_code"] == "P.1"
+
+    def test_endpoint_without_store(self, monkeypatch):
+        from src import web_api
+
+        monkeypatch.setitem(web_api.app_state, "forecast_store", None)
+        assert (
+            asyncio.run(
+                web_api.get_forecast_history(
+                    "P.1", hours=168, start=None, end=None, horizon=None
+                )
+            )
+            == []
+        )