feat(forecast): Rust forecast crate, bit-for-bit with the Python serving path
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Phase 2a of docs/RUST_REWRITE.md. rust/forecast (ping-forecast) ports the
serving half of src/ml: the HII mirror gap fill, the hourly grid, every
feature (pandas' Kahan rolling sums included), the Mae Ngat dam frame,
HistGradientBoosting tree inference, the heuristic fallback, stale-threshold
handling and the P.1 flood-stage probabilities.

Hand-over from Python (src/ml/export.py):
- models/flood_<station>.json.gz next to each joblib bundle; train_all() writes
  it, retrain.sh promotes it, `python -m src.ml.export` exports existing ones.
- rust/forecast/flood_config.json: thresholds, stages, leads and notify
  constants, compiled in. tests/test_model_export.py fails while it differs
  from the Python source.

Parity (rust/forecast/tests/parity.rs, fixtures from
testdata/gen_forecast_fixtures.py on the production code path): four
scenarios incl. the 2024 flood with RID lagging behind HII. Merged readings,
all features and all levels identical; with all 15 local models 377/384
probabilities bit-identical, the rest within 2 ulp (exp).

Python refactor without behaviour change: predict.forecasts_from_long, and
get_latest_forecasts/load_latest/serving_frame take now/rain for
reproducible comparisons; the HII query orders its rows.
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grabowski committed 2026-10-18 14:21:56 +07:00
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@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
[workspace]
resolver = "3"
members = ["collector"]
members = ["collector", "forecast"]
[workspace.package]
# 1.88: edition 2024 let-chains, and dependencies (home, icu_*) need it. Distro
@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ repository = "https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor"
anyhow = "1"
chrono = { version = "0.4", default-features = false, features = ["std", "clock", "serde"] }
clap = { version = "4", features = ["derive"] }
flate2 = "1"
log = "0.4"
# native-tls (OpenSSL on Linux, SChannel on Windows), not rustls: app.rid.go.th (dams)
# offers only TLS 1.2 CBC suites (ECDHE-RSA-AES256-SHA384), which rustls refuses.