docs: September 2025 flood render - deployed config, 24 h warning, peak within 7 cm

Hour-by-hour chart of the 25-28 Sep 2025 event as forecast by the exact deployed configuration (trained through 2024, event unseen): first alert 26 Sep 18:00, flooding began 27 Sep 18:00 (24 h lead), predicted peak 4.00 m vs actual 3.93 m. The near-miss 3.51 m crest on 26 Sep correctly never alerted.
2026-08-10 18:35:55 +07:00
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@@ -284,6 +284,19 @@ almost no positives (P.84 0.570, P.82 0.302 on 0.22% of test hours). P.92 and P.
 have no evaluable warning metric at all: neither crossed 3.0 m often enough in the
 test span (P.92 not once, P.20 in 0.09% of hours) to score.
 ### The September 2025 flood, as the deployed configuration saw it
 ![Observed vs predicted through the September 2025 flood — model trained only
 through 2024](img/backtest-2025-p1.png)
 This is the strongest single piece of evidence, because it uses the exact
 deployed configuration (train ≤ 2024-12-31) on an event it never saw: the
 model's **first alert came 26 September 2025 at 18:00, exactly 24 hours before
 the river crossed 3.70 m**, and it predicted a 4.00 m peak against an actual
 3.93 m — within 7 cm. Note the discrimination: the near-miss crest of 3.51 m on
 26 September never triggered an alert, the probability fires only for the real
 event, and it stands down as the water recedes.
 ### Headline validation: the October 2024 record flood
 The holdout above never sees a true extreme, because the 2024 flood is in the