feat: replay shows when the model would have detected and warned

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The 2024 snapshot now carries a model track: p_warning and predicted
24 h peak from HGB heads trained ONLY on pre-flood data (an honest
backtest, cutoff 2024-08-31), plus its calibration sigma. During replay:

- the map clock shows the system's state at each moment: 'model: no
  flood expected' -> 'elevated risk' -> amber 'MODEL ALERT - flooding
  within 24 h likely (predicted peak X m)' -> red 'FLOODING' once the
  river actually crosses stage 1. First alert fires 24 Sep 01:00, a
  full day before the water crossed the flood line on 25 Sep.
- the flood-risk outlook stage chips re-render each frame from the
  historic model prediction (sigmoid over the stage levels), so the
  whole outlook panel time-travels with the map.

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grabowski

2026-08-10 18:07:57 +07:00

parent d015420b66

commit 199b0e3483

2 changed files with 53 additions and 12 deletions

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src/static/flood-2024-all.json

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