# Roadmap

Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated
by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move.
Rough durations are estimates.

## Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now)

These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:

1. **Market validation**: test the 3.50 to 4.60 USD blended pressing price
   and regional demand with Asian labels and distributors, starting at
   Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest
   assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the
   financing case waits on it. **Partially started**: a first buy-side
   data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are
   recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on
   per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no
   HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest
   argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Carry the
   open run-size question into these conversations.
2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity
   sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and
   R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes
   company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision
   timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to
   certificate in practice.
3. **60 rai title check**: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal
   status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the
   [biomass plan](biomass.md); if it clears, plant the coppice immediately
   so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase.

## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window)

4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired), with PLC/data access as a
   stated purchasing requirement per the
   [traceability spec](traceability.md)
5. **Pheenix Alpha**: current metric datasheet and quotes for the AD12 and
   AD12 Manual, evaluating the single-vendor option against Newbilt for
   the semi-auto half
6. **Digital Matrix**: galvanics line quote; in parallel, identify the
   separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge system
7. **Thai utility RFQs** from the candidates in the
   [utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv), with guaranteed
   northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH
   floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever)
8. **Solar/BESS engineering check**: match the Gobel rack voltage to the
   chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms,
   confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus
9. **Site selection**: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang
   (Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent
   treatment and licensing simplicity), screened against the
   [scale requirements](scale.md): 6 to 8 rai, 1,200 to 1,700 m² single
   story, multiple tons per m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection

## Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing)

10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate
11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must
    arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from
    certificate issuance
12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only
    with land privileges under BOI)
13. Order long-lead items: mastering lathe (Agnew or Sillitoe, both built
    to order, see [vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)),
    stamper-prep machines, first utility packages
14. Engage Stamper Discs for the bridge-stamper relationship with written
    turnaround SLAs

## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)

15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities,
    solar and BESS installation, security systems per
    [facility-security.md](facility-security.md)
16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site
    commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate
    card)
17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry
    capture (spec in [traceability.md](traceability.md), systems and build
    order in [digital-factory.md](digital-factory.md); the network, servers
    and edge collectors go in before the machinery arrives)
18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the
    equipment, not after it

## Phase 4: Launch (pressing with bridge stampers)

19. First test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the
    regional pitch
21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound
    against the European references

## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)

22. Duplex expansion (second press and extruder are already quoted options)
23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep) with
    the zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
    **Open question: should this move to Phase 1?** The August 2026 market
    evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press
    capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's
    spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the
    [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md)
24. Automated press line (the 50/50 fleet target)
25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand
    shows up in Phase 4)

## Standing principle

Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
The phased entry (~1.7M to 2.9M USD) is the default path; the full vision
(~4.7M to 8.9M USD) is reached through it, not instead of it.