diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 517a81c..2e035be 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -73,8 +73,9 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents: three current gates (market validation, BOI, land title check) through quotes, commitment, build, launch, and expansion - [Pressing line equipment plan](docs/equipment/pressing-line.md): the - 50/50 automated/semi-automatic fleet strategy, the Newbilt system under - evaluation (~USD 232k quoted scope), and site requirements + current all-Newbilt fleet (two Duplex systems with an extruder per press, + plus one Classic automatic press), the 2024 Newbilt quote (~USD 232k, + expired), the 2026 product flyers, and site requirements - [Galvanics and stamper prep equipment plan](docs/equipment/galvanics.md): the metal path from lacquer to press-ready stamper, from vendor datasheets: Pheenix Alpha's electroforming range as a second turnkey @@ -91,7 +92,7 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents: used lathes and cutting-room contacts (via OMS), stamper preparation (Sibert), bridge stamper service (Stamper Discs), and automated presses - (Pheenix Alpha) + (Pheenix Alpha, the comparison for the Classic) - [Equipment needs and supplier map](docs/suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md): the full needs list per production step with supplier tables and contacts - [Sustainability](docs/sustainability.md): the solar installation (Deye diff --git a/docs/crane-workshop-tours.md b/docs/crane-workshop-tours.md index f329110..ea10ce9 100644 --- a/docs/crane-workshop-tours.md +++ b/docs/crane-workshop-tours.md @@ -31,15 +31,15 @@ is an estimate. | Newbilt press (HRP 12) | 1,350 kg | [Newbilt Duplex site requirements](equipment/newbilt/) | | Newbilt extruder | 660 kg | same | | Newbilt hydraulic aggregate (250 L tank, 50 L accumulator) | 600 kg | same, plus the [budgetary offer](equipment/newbilt/) | -| Pheenix AD12 automated press | **unknown**, ask Pheenix | not in any document yet | +| Newbilt Classic automatic press | **unknown**, ask Newbilt with the re-quote | not in any document yet (it replaced the Pheenix AD12 in the fleet plan, October 2026) | | Sibert VSP punch / VSF finisher / VSC coiner | 200 / 250 / 1,000 kg; VSP and VSF on castors, the VSC sheet lists none, so it is a lift | [Sibert specifications](equipment/sibert/) (2022 and 2023) | | Pheenix plating units (PPPU, PDPU), silvering unit, prep bench | unknown: dimensions published, weights not; each plating unit carries a 385 L tank, lifted empty | [Pheenix flyers](equipment/pheenix-alpha/), [galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md); ask with the quote | | Water-treatment evaporator | unknown, lifted empty | to be asked with the quote | **Planning capacity: 5 t safe working load** (estimate). It covers the heaviest known lift with its lifting beam and slings at a wide margin and -leaves room for the automated presses until Pheenix states their weight. -If the AD12 turns out under about 2.5 t, price a **3.2 t** crane as the +leaves room for the automatic press until Newbilt states the Classic's +weight. If the Classic turns out under about 2.5 t, price a **3.2 t** crane as the alternative: lighter runway and frame, and possibly a lighter inspection regime. Thai cranes fall under the Ministry of Labour's 2021 Ministerial Regulation on machinery, cranes and boilers (the same regulation that @@ -401,7 +401,7 @@ goods into the phase 2 building. ## Open decisions -1. **Crane capacity**: 5 t or 3.2 t, once Pheenix states the AD12 weight +1. **Crane capacity**: 5 t or 3.2 t, once Newbilt states the Classic's weight and the inspection intervals are confirmed. 2. **Low eave**: keep 7.0 m or raise to 8.0 m, once the contractor states the achievable hook height. diff --git a/docs/equipment/pressing-line.md b/docs/equipment/pressing-line.md index d747c1f..e57d4c4 100644 --- a/docs/equipment/pressing-line.md +++ b/docs/equipment/pressing-line.md @@ -1,13 +1,66 @@ # Pressing Line: Equipment Plan -The target press fleet is a **50/50 split between fully automated and -semi-automatic presses**: automated presses for standard production volume, -and semi-automatic presses for splatter and other color effects, special -editions, and small runs, where an operator working the mold directly is an -advantage rather than a cost. The semi-automatic side is covered by the -Newbilt evaluation below; a fully automated press line is an open -procurement item with two candidates: the Newbilt Classic (below) and the -Pheenix Alpha AD12 (see the [vendor landscape](../suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)). +## Current plan: an all-Newbilt fleet of five presses (October 2026) + +Two **Newbilt Duplex** systems, each in Newbilt's two-extruder +configuration (two HRP 12 presses, each fed by its own extruder, on one +hydraulic unit with shared control), plus one **Newbilt Classic** fully +automatic press: + +| | Presses | Extruders | Hydraulics | +|---|---|---|---| +| Duplex system 1 | 2 semi-automatic | 2 | one unit for the system | +| Duplex system 2 | 2 semi-automatic | 2 | one unit for the system | +| Classic | 1 fully automatic | 1, built in | its own | +| **Fleet** | **5: 4 semi-automatic, 1 automatic** | **5** | | + +This replaces the earlier target of a 50/50 split between automated and +semi-automatic presses (two of each, with the Pheenix AD12 as the +automated candidate). What it means: + +- **The semi-automatic side carries most of the volume.** Splatter and + other colour effects, special editions and small runs are where an + operator working the mould is an advantage rather than a cost, and + Newbilt itself recommends the Duplex for splatter. With an extruder per + press, the two presses of a system can run different colours or + compounds at the same time and neither waits on a shared extruder (our + reading of the flyer's configurations; confirm with Newbilt). The + Classic takes the long standard runs. +- **One vendor, one mould family.** Classic and Duplex share insert sets + (below), so the whole fleet runs one family of moulds and spares and one + service relationship. The single-vendor risk is the same one the Pheenix + path would have carried. +- **Phasing.** The Newbilt Single 2.1 system of the 2024 quote (one press, + one extruder) is the launch configuration and the first half of Duplex + system 1: its hydraulic aggregate is already sized for the second press. + The second press and extruder complete system 1; system 2 and the + Classic complete the fleet ([scale](../scale.md) capacity table, + [roadmap](../roadmap.md) item 24). +- **Capacity** at maturity stays at ~1.0 to 1.5 million records a year on + two shifts, the range the [revenue model](../finance/revenue-model.md) + uses: four semi-automatic presses at 60 to 80 records an hour (estimate) + and the Classic at ~128 an hour (28 s cycle, vendor figure). +- **Utilities do not scale from the old figures.** At Newbilt's per-press + figures (steam 150 to 180 kg/h, cooling up to 125 kW per press), five + presses draw ~750 to 900 kg/h of steam and up to ~625 kW of cooling, + against the ~400 kg/h steam generator and ~250 kW cooling system that the + 2024 quote's exclusions describe for one Duplex. The boiler, chiller, + electrical connection and [utilities CSV](../finance/utilities-investment.csv) + are **not yet re-sized** for this fleet; that waits for the re-quote's + figures ([scale](../scale.md)). +- **Investment**: the fleet change is carried in the added-scope table of + [total investment](../finance/total-investment.md) until the next + re-base. +- **For the re-quote** ([roadmap](../roadmap.md) item 4): the two-extruder + Duplex as an upgrade of the Single 2.1 and as a second complete system; + the Classic's price, weight, power, steam and cooling figures; and a + central hydraulic supply shared by both Duplex systems (an option the + flyer offers). + +The Pheenix AD12 leaves the plan; it stays in the +[vendor landscape](../suppliers/vendor-landscape.md) as the comparison if +the Classic re-quote disappoints, and Pheenix stays a galvanics candidate +([galvanics and stamper prep](galvanics.md)). ## Semi-automatic line: Newbilt @@ -51,10 +104,11 @@ vendor-published, not quoted. What this changes in the plan: - **Classic and Duplex share inserts.** Insert sets move between the two - machines, so a Newbilt-only fleet (Duplex for the semi-automatic half, - Classic for the automated half) runs one mould family. Newbilt itself - recommends the Duplex for splatter, which matches the reason for the - 50/50 split. The Pheenix AD12 stays the comparison for the automated half. + machines, so the current all-Newbilt fleet (Duplex systems for the + semi-automatic side, the Classic for the automated press) runs one mould + family. Newbilt itself recommends the Duplex for splatter, which is why + the semi-automatic side carries most of the fleet. The Pheenix AD12 + stays the comparison for the Classic. - **Regrind loop.** The granulator flyer puts edge trim at about 20 to 40 g per 12" 180 g record, 11 to 22 % of the record's mass, which brackets the ~20 % recycled share in the process schematic. Rejected records go @@ -84,7 +138,9 @@ Site planning for the semi-automatic line works from Newbilt's Duplex requirements: roughly 200 m² of production floor, 32 kVA connected electrical load, saturated steam at 10 bar, and compressed air and cooling water circuits, plus side rooms for materials, compressor, chiller, and -finished goods. +finished goods. These are per Duplex system: the current fleet needs two, +plus floor for the Classic (~400 m², plus ~50 to 75 m² for the Classic, +estimate). **Floor loading is a building-selection criterion**: the slab must carry multiple tons per m² in the machine areas. A Newbilt press weighs 1,350 kg diff --git a/docs/finance/revenue-model.md b/docs/finance/revenue-model.md index e8d9fbe..d5c6dd9 100644 --- a/docs/finance/revenue-model.md +++ b/docs/finance/revenue-model.md @@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ as output. | ResurRec, assuming one shift over 300 days | ~275k – 355k | | **CNX launch** (1 semi-auto, 1 shift) | **90k – 135k** | | CNX Duplex (2 semi-auto, 1–2 shifts) | ~175k – 540k | -| CNX mature (2 semi + 2 automated, 2 shifts) | 1.0M – 1.5M | +| CNX mature (4 semi + 1 automated, 2 shifts) | 1.0M – 1.5M | All rows are on the same 300-day basis so they can be compared. CNX does not overtake them on installed capability until the Duplex expansion, and diff --git a/docs/finance/total-investment.md b/docs/finance/total-investment.md index c82b0ec..a169ccc 100644 --- a/docs/finance/total-investment.md +++ b/docs/finance/total-investment.md @@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at | Block | USD | THB | Basis | |---|---|---|---| -| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote | -| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning | +| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote. The fleet has since changed, see the added-scope table | +| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning. Replaced by the Newbilt Classic in the current fleet, see the added-scope table | | Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, [galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)) is unpriced too; OMS's reference prices (letter, 9 October 2026) put a complete 4-cell wet room at EUR 224k basic to 311k advanced (~USD 259k to 359k; ~270k to 371k with know-how transfer), installation and water treatment extra: at or below this block's low end, kept until quotes exist | | Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row | | Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate kept until the re-base; Sibert has since confirmed USD 250k for the three (its time, spares, shipping and travel extra), the difference is in the table below | @@ -47,7 +47,8 @@ building, software and stamper prep lines, and the contingency on top). | Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments) | 40k – 90k | 1.3M – 3.0M | estimate, [artist platform](../artist-platform.md) | | PVC material lab, day-one tier (incl. plaque press and sample conditioning) | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md); not costed in the metrology block above. The mature tier (torque rheometer, DSC, FTIR, ~120k – 240k) is deferred, with partner labs in between | | Stamper prep re-priced: USD 250k for VSP, VSF and VSC against the 60k – 170k block above | +190k (low case) / +80k (high case) | +6.3M / +2.6M | Sibert's budget confirmation, email of 5 October 2026 ([galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)); itemised quotation to follow. Its time, spare parts, shipping and travel are extra and fall into the freight/installation and spares blocks above | -| **Added so far** | **~480k – 770k** | **~15.8M – 25.5M** | about 10 to 12% on the full-vision subtotal | +| Press fleet changed (October 2026) to two Newbilt Duplex systems with an extruder per press plus one Newbilt Classic, replacing the two blocks above (930k – 1,290k): Duplex system 1 as the first block (350k – 370k), system 2 ~230k – 300k (two press and extruder sets at the quoted ~115k each, plus its hydraulic unit, estimate), the Classic ~290k – 460k (the AD12 band per press as a placeholder; no Newbilt price on file) | −60k (low case) / −160k (high case) | −2.0M / −5.3M | estimate, [pressing line](../equipment/pressing-line.md); the Newbilt re-quote replaces it. The utilities for five presses are not re-sized yet ([scale](../scale.md)) | +| **Added so far** | **~420k – 610k** | **~13.8M – 20.2M** | about 8 to 10% on the full-vision subtotal | ## Phased entry @@ -60,8 +61,9 @@ A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly **1.7M to 2.9M USD metrology deferred; the PVC lab's day-one tier is the added-scope row above - Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array -- Galvanics, automated presses, full metrology, and the biomass boiler - follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions +- Galvanics, the second Duplex system and the Classic, full metrology, + and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round + expansions The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass @@ -80,7 +82,7 @@ exactly this reason. [project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md) - **Biggest uncertainty bands**: metrology (partly a choice of ambition), the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the - automated presses (single unverified price point), and land + Newbilt Classic (no price on file), and land - **Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here.** Revenue is mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged diff --git a/docs/roadmap.md b/docs/roadmap.md index 6eb4587..23e0e29 100644 --- a/docs/roadmap.md +++ b/docs/roadmap.md @@ -40,12 +40,15 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream: ## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window) -4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired), with PLC/data access as a +4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired) for the current fleet: the + two-extruder Duplex as the Single 2.1 upgrade and as a second system, + the Classic automatic press, and a central hydraulic supply option + ([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)), with PLC/data access as a stated purchasing requirement per the [traceability spec](traceability.md) -5. **Pheenix Alpha**: current metric datasheet and quotes for the AD12 and - AD12 Manual, evaluating the single-vendor option against Newbilt for - the semi-auto half. After Haarlem the CEO offered a Teams call, +5. **Pheenix Alpha**: the AD12 left the current fleet plan in October + 2026 (an all-Newbilt fleet); Pheenix stays the comparison for the + Classic and a galvanics candidate (item 6). After Haarlem the CEO offered a Teams call, reference clients and a factory visit near Stockholm; the call follows once our questions are ready, and the next Europe trip is planned for February 2027 ([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show)) @@ -140,7 +143,8 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream: before every manufacturing step is in place ([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show)); supplier advice to weigh against the market evidence, not a decision -24. Automated press line (the 50/50 fleet target) +24. Second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic automatic press, which + complete the five-press fleet ([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)) 25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station 26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel 27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand diff --git a/docs/scale.md b/docs/scale.md index c04b0c7..64fba5a 100644 --- a/docs/scale.md +++ b/docs/scale.md @@ -9,16 +9,20 @@ page as real quotes and the site decision land. | Phase | Fleet | Rough output | |---|---|---| -| Launch | 1 semi-auto press (Newbilt Single), 1 shift | ~90,000 to 135,000 records/yr | -| Duplex | 2 semi-auto presses, 1 to 2 shifts | ~175,000 to 540,000 records/yr | -| Mature | 2 semi-auto + 2 automated (50/50 fleet), 2 shifts | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr | +| Launch | 1 semi-auto press (Newbilt Single, the first half of Duplex system 1), 1 shift | ~90,000 to 135,000 records/yr | +| Duplex | 2 semi-auto presses (Duplex system 1, an extruder per press), 1 to 2 shifts | ~175,000 to 540,000 records/yr | +| Mature | 4 semi-auto (two Duplex systems, an extruder per press) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), 2 shifts | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr | -Basis: the automated AD12 presses ~140 records/hour each (vendor datasheet); -semi-automatic throughput is unpublished, assumed 60 to 80 records/hour per -press with operator handling (estimate); 16 h/day, 300 days/yr, with -realistic overall effectiveness of 60 to 70% applied. The theoretical -ceiling of the mature fleet at 100% uptime is roughly 1.9 to 2.1 million -records per year. +Basis: the current fleet plan of October 2026 +([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)). The automated Classic +~128 records/hour (28 s cycle, vendor flyer); semi-automatic throughput is +unpublished, assumed 60 to 80 records/hour per press with operator +handling (estimate); 16 h/day, 300 days/yr, with realistic overall +effectiveness of 60 to 70% applied: 368 to 448 records/hour, ~1.06 to 1.5 +million a year. The theoretical ceiling of the mature fleet at 100% uptime +is roughly 1.8 to 2.2 million records per year. (The earlier 50/50 fleet, +two semi-automatic presses and two Pheenix AD12s, landed in the same +range.) **The 60–70% effectiveness assumption is worth challenging, but not yet changing.** Newbilt publishes ≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime for the Classic @@ -29,7 +33,7 @@ for the Duplex. Three reasons not to adjust anything on that basis: stamper and mould changes, label reels, colour changeovers, PVC lot changes, first-article QC and breaks — precisely the losses that dominate a short-run boutique plant. They are different quantities. -- It would apply only to the **automated half** of the fleet. The +- It would apply only to the **automated press** (the Classic). The 60–80/h semi-auto figure already embeds operator handling, so applying an uplift to that half would double-count. - 0.95 × 0.95 is 0.90 before any performance factor; reaching 80% OEE @@ -159,7 +163,7 @@ conversion, which forestry land generally does not. | Load | Rough figure | |---|---| -| Pressing machinery (semi-auto line + 2 automated presses) | ~70 to 80 kW installed | +| Pressing machinery (two Duplex systems + the Classic) | ~90 to 120 kW installed (estimate: 32 kVA per Duplex system by Newbilt's requirements; the second extruders and the Classic not yet published) | | Process chiller (250 kW cooling) | ~80 to 125 kW electrical | | Whole-factory HVAC | ~100 to 200 kW peak (estimate) | | Electric steam boiler (if chosen over biomass/LPG) | ~300 kW | @@ -169,6 +173,13 @@ conversion, which forestry land generally does not. Grid connection: a medium-voltage connection with a transformer in the **500 to 1,000 kVA** class from PEA, sized by the boiler decision. +**Not yet re-based for the five-press fleet** (October 2026). The chiller +and peak rows above are sized for one Duplex's ~250 kW of cooling; at +Newbilt's up to 125 kW of cooling per press, five presses need up to ~625 +kW, so the chiller's electrical draw and the plant peak rise accordingly. +Re-size with the Newbilt re-quote figures, together with the steam below +([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)). + Tariff: PEA Schedule 3.2.2, Medium General Service on time of use at 22 kV (the flat rate is closed to new customers): 132.93 THB/kW demand charge on the peak-hour maximum, 4.1839 THB/kWh peak (09:00 to 22:00 on @@ -205,7 +216,10 @@ small against the connection, but its own feeder and meter. ## Steam and fuel -- Boiler: **400 kg/h at 10 bar / 180 °C** (~300 kW thermal) +- Boiler: **400 kg/h at 10 bar / 180 °C** (~300 kW thermal), sized for + one Duplex. The current five-press fleet draws **~750 to 900 kg/h** at + Newbilt's 150 to 180 kg/h per press: not yet re-based, and the fuel + figures below scale with it - If biomass: **~350 to 400 t/yr** air-dry wood at mature operation, of which the 60 rai coppice could supply **~80 to 135 t/yr** - If LPG: **~2.5 to 5 t** bulk tank on site (no gas pipeline in the North) @@ -232,6 +246,7 @@ keep their original currency alongside. - Thai-sourced utilities, HVAC, racking, solar, BESS baseline: **~24M to 42M THB (~USD 730k to 1.27M)**, detail in the [utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv) -- Not yet priced: automated presses (indicative ~USD 340k each, unverified), +- Not yet priced: the second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic + (estimates in [total investment](finance/total-investment.md)), galvanics line, mastering/cutting room, metrology, building construction/fit-out, land diff --git a/docs/suppliers/vendor-landscape.md b/docs/suppliers/vendor-landscape.md index 8d0f9f0..a968754 100644 --- a/docs/suppliers/vendor-landscape.md +++ b/docs/suppliers/vendor-landscape.md @@ -255,9 +255,11 @@ press has 25 kW installed electrical power and consumes per cycle roughly in the Netherlands runs its AD12 steam from wood-fired biomass boilers, a working precedent for the renewable-steam question. Pheenix also offers the **AD12 Manual**, a semi-automatic press on the same platform aimed at -splatter and short runs, which makes them a possible single-vendor -alternative covering both halves of the 50/50 fleet; that option should be -weighed against the Newbilt plan on price, spares, and support. +splatter and short runs, which made them a possible single-vendor +alternative for the earlier 50/50 fleet. Since October 2026 the current +plan is an all-Newbilt fleet ([pressing line](../equipment/pressing-line.md)), +so the AD12 is the comparison for the Newbilt Classic rather than part of +the plan. Pheenix also builds **electroforming equipment**: an automatic silvering unit (PASU), a four-position pre-plating unit (PPPU), a two-cell production