From c138177f6715c33251d99ecd2a1f581bc218c8fb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: grabowski Date: Fri, 17 Jul 2026 18:02:18 +0700 Subject: [PATCH] Add project roadmap: 27 steps in dependency order across six phases Three current gates (market validation, BOI, land title check) through quotes, commitment, build, launch, and revenue-gated expansion; import window correctly attributed to certificate issuance --- README.md | 6 ++- docs/roadmap.md | 101 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 106 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 docs/roadmap.md diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 22fc7a0..7a8b558 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -53,6 +53,9 @@ and budgets for the other steps are open planning items. The detail lives in dedicated documents: +- [Roadmap](docs/roadmap.md): next steps in dependency order, from the + three current gates (market validation, BOI, land title check) through + quotes, commitment, build, launch, and expansion - [Pressing line equipment plan](docs/equipment/pressing-line.md): the 50/50 automated/semi-automatic fleet strategy, the Newbilt system under evaluation (≈ €200,500 quoted scope), and site requirements @@ -115,6 +118,7 @@ docs/ ├── facility-security.md Security, HVAC, fire and life safety, compliance ├── process-flow.md Audio file to delivered record, with all checks ├── quality-automation.md Stamper metrology and layered record QC +├── roadmap.md Next steps in dependency order ├── scale.md Rough project sizing on one page ├── sustainability.md Energy, water, materials commitments ├── traceability.md Process logging and per-order traceability @@ -125,7 +129,7 @@ Vendor PDFs and spreadsheets are primary sources and reflect the state of negotiations at their file dates. Treat prices and lead times as snapshots, not commitments. -## Roadmap for This Repo +## What This Repo Will Grow to Hold - Accumulate planning and vendor documents as decisions firm up, including the mastering, cutting, and galvanics chain diff --git a/docs/roadmap.md b/docs/roadmap.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e413cb3 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/roadmap.md @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +# Roadmap + +Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated +by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move. +Rough durations are estimates. + +## Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now) + +These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream: + +1. **Market validation**: test the 3.0 to 4.0 EUR blended pressing price + and regional demand with Asian labels and distributors, starting at + Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest + assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the + financing case waits on it. +2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity + sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and + R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes + company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision + timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to + certificate in practice. +3. **60 rai title check**: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal + status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the + [biomass plan](biomass.md); if it clears, plant the coppice immediately + so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase. + +## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window) + +4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired), with PLC/data access as a + stated purchasing requirement per the + [traceability spec](traceability.md) +5. **Pheenix Alpha**: current metric datasheet and quotes for the AD12 and + AD12 Manual, evaluating the single-vendor option against Newbilt for + the semi-auto half +6. **Digital Matrix**: galvanics line quote; in parallel, identify the + separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge system +7. **Thai utility RFQs** from the candidates in the + [utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv), with guaranteed + northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH + floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever) +8. **Solar/BESS engineering check**: match the Gobel rack voltage to the + chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms, + confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus +9. **Site selection**: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang + (Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent + treatment and licensing simplicity), screened against the + [scale requirements](scale.md): 6 to 8 rai, 1,200 to 1,700 m² single + story, multiple tons per m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection + +## Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing) + +10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate +11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must + arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from + certificate issuance +12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only + with land privileges under BOI) +13. Order long-lead items: mastering lathe (Agnew build times are long), + stamper-prep machines, first utility packages +14. Engage Stamper Discs for the bridge-stamper relationship with written + turnaround SLAs + +## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment) + +15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities, + solar and BESS installation, security systems per + [facility-security.md](facility-security.md) +16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site + commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate + card) +17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry + capture (spec in [traceability.md](traceability.md)) +18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the + equipment, not after it + +## Phase 4: Launch (pressing with bridge stampers) + +19. First test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown +20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the + regional pitch +21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound + against the European references + +## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated) + +22. Duplex expansion (second press and extruder are already quoted options) +23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep) with + the zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup +24. Automated press line (the 50/50 fleet target) +25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station +26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel +27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand + shows up in Phase 4) + +## Standing principle + +Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order +before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market +validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check. +The phased entry (~1.5M to 2.5M EUR) is the default path; the full vision +(~4M to 7.7M EUR) is reached through it, not instead of it.