diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 6cf8ea8..97180dc 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -89,8 +89,10 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents: - [Equipment needs and supplier map](docs/suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md): the full needs list per production step with supplier tables and contacts - [Sustainability](docs/sustainability.md): the solar installation (Deye - inverters, 271 kWh Gobel Power battery stack), the zero contaminated water - commitment, and the materials strategy + inverters, 271 kWh Gobel Power battery stack), the PEA grid tariff and + what it decides (biomass steam at about a tenth of the cost of electric, + PV rather than solar thermal), the zero contaminated water commitment, + and the materials strategy - [Worker safety](docs/worker-safety.md): safety training, galvanics clean rooms and decontamination, PPE - [Biomass fuel strategy](docs/biomass.md): the 60 rai own-grown coppice @@ -205,7 +207,8 @@ docs/ │ ├── galvanics.md Electroforming and stamper prep equipment plan │ └── pressing-line.md Press fleet strategy and equipment plan ├── finance/ Project cost overviews, revenue model, -│ construction RFQ +│ construction RFQ, PEA electricity tariff +│ schedule (pea/) ├── suppliers/ Supplier contacts, vendor landscape, supplier map ├── artist-platform.md Upload, price calculator, fan-funded pressing ├── biomass.md Biomass fuel strategy and the 60 rai coppice idea diff --git a/docs/biomass.md b/docs/biomass.md index 83c932e..b9286b4 100644 --- a/docs/biomass.md +++ b/docs/biomass.md @@ -80,8 +80,18 @@ storage are additional. - The 60 rai tilts the economics and the story further toward biomass, but only after the land-title check clears - The electric boiler remains the alternative: cleanest permitting, no fuel - logistics, but effectively grid-powered steam at a ~300 kW draw + logistics, but effectively grid-powered steam at a ~300 kW draw. On + PEA's time-of-use tariff that costs ~4.7M to 5.5M THB a year at mature + load against ~0.35M to 0.8M of fuel for biomass, and ~1.4M to 1.7M + against ~0.1M to 0.2M at early load, because the demand charge follows + the boiler's full-power draw (estimates; see the + [grid tariff](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides)). + The electric boiler is the more efficient machine; biomass is the far + cheaper heat - A staged path is possible: start electric (fast, clean permitting), plant the coppice now (first harvest in 2 to 4 years), and add the biomass boiler at the automated-line expansion when demand and the fuel supply - have both matured + have both matured. At the tariff above that is a permitting and logistics + choice, not a cost one: every year on electric steam costs roughly 1.2M + to 5M THB more than biomass, so the switch should come as soon as the + permit and a fuel contract are in place diff --git a/docs/finance/pea/EN_Electricity_Tariffs_May_2023.pdf b/docs/finance/pea/EN_Electricity_Tariffs_May_2023.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2c9d9f3 Binary files /dev/null and b/docs/finance/pea/EN_Electricity_Tariffs_May_2023.pdf differ diff --git a/docs/finance/utilities-investment.csv b/docs/finance/utilities-investment.csv index 289463e..e24c48d 100644 --- a/docs/finance/utilities-investment.csv +++ b/docs/finance/utilities-investment.csv @@ -13,6 +13,6 @@ water,Galvanics ZLD evaporator (future),"Small MVR or low-temp vacuum evaporator storage,Pallet racking and shelving,"100-200 pallet positions selective/heavy-duty (beams sized 1000-1500 kg/pallet, records are dense) + archive and finished-goods shelving, installed","Jenbunjerd; local fabricators (Sahawatthanakit, UPR, SD Shelf); SSI Schaefer (premium)",800000,1500000,published list prices + engineering estimate,"SSI Schaefer premium tier ~1.5-3M for same scope; ~1000-2000 THB per pallet position at local tier" hvac,Whole-factory HVAC,"~1500 m2 at 20-26 C, 35-60% RH, ePM1/F7-F9 filtration sized for burning-season PM2.5, ducting and controls","Daikin Thailand; Trane; Mitsubishi Electric; Carrier; filtration: Camfil Thailand, AAF",7500000,15000000,engineering estimate at 5000-10000 THB/m2,"RH low end of 35% is aggressive for tropics and drives desiccant cost; if 45-60% RH acceptable, cost drops materially" hvac,Clean-room-grade zone adder,"Cutting room + galvanics clean room, ~2 x 60 m2, ISO 7/8 with HEPA terminals, positive pressure, airlocks","Same HVAC vendors + clean-room contractors; Camfil HEPA",1200000,3400000,engineering estimate at 10000-28000 THB/m2 adder,Applied only to the two tight zones -solar,PV rooftop EPC (illustrative 300 kWp),"Turnkey C&I rooftop EPC incl. Deye hybrid inverters, at 25000-35000 THB/kWp","Solar Nicolo (Deye tier-1 distributor); Banpu NEXT; SCG Cleanergy; Sermsang; local Chiang Mai installers",7500000,10500000,market rate per kWp; size illustrative,"Final kWp open until site selection; grid tariff ~3.88 THB/kWh implies ~4-6 yr C&I payback" +solar,PV rooftop EPC (illustrative 300 kWp),"Turnkey C&I rooftop EPC incl. Deye hybrid inverters, at 25000-35000 THB/kWp","Solar Nicolo (Deye tier-1 distributor); Banpu NEXT; SCG Cleanergy; Sermsang; local Chiang Mai installers",7500000,10500000,market rate per kWp; size illustrative,"Final kWp open until site selection; PEA TOU 3.2.2 plus Ft (Sep-Dec 2026): self-consumed PV worth ~3.7 THB/kWh, ~4.5-7 yr payback (sustainability.md, grid tariff)" solar,Battery stack 271 kWh (Gobel),"GP-SRA-HV314 HV LiFePO4 rack, 15 x 18 kWh packs, direct from Shenzhen, 50-60 day lead",Gobel Power (no Thai distributor; integration by solar EPC),1400000,2030000,vendor listed price USD 39900-58000 at ~35 THB/USD,"Confirm Deye BMS protocol compatibility and that the EPC warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus; certs (UN38.3/IEC 62619/CE) to be requested" total,BASELINE TOTAL,"Electric steam + oil-injected air + chiller + softener + loop treatment + local racking + HVAC + clean zones + 300 kWp solar + 271 kWh BESS",,23980000,41630000,sum of baseline rows,"~630k-1100k EUR at 38 THB/EUR; excludes options rows (biomass premium, oil-free, tower alternative, RO, ZLD evaporator, SSI premium tier); all figures budgetary +/- 30%, get RFQs before BOI/finance filings" diff --git a/docs/scale.md b/docs/scale.md index e7dfbca..0741d05 100644 --- a/docs/scale.md +++ b/docs/scale.md @@ -169,6 +169,16 @@ conversion, which forestry land generally does not. Grid connection: a medium-voltage connection with a transformer in the **500 to 1,000 kVA** class from PEA, sized by the boiler decision. +Tariff: PEA Schedule 3.2.2, Medium General Service on time of use at +22 kV (the flat rate is closed to new customers): 132.93 THB/kW demand +charge on the peak-hour maximum, 4.1839 THB/kWh peak (09:00 to 22:00 on +weekdays) and 2.6037 THB/kWh off-peak, plus Ft (0.1623 THB/kWh for +September to December 2026) and VAT. Two-shift production lands at a +blended ~3.81 THB/kWh before the demand charge, roughly 4.3M to 6.4M THB a +year without electric steam (estimate); the deposit for the connection is +400 THB per kVA. Detail and what it decides for steam, PV and the battery +in [sustainability](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides). + Galvanics (Phase 5) is not in the table yet. By the Pheenix Alpha and Sibert datasheets, one electroforming line plus the stamper prep machines is ~30 kVA connected, two three-phase plating units and the rest @@ -188,8 +198,10 @@ small against the connection, but its own feeder and meter. (estimate), so 300 kWp covers roughly **28 to 45%** of consumption without electric steam, falling to **~17%** with it; a bigger array shifts that up -- Battery: **271 kWh** Gobel stack (peak shaving and ride-through, roughly - two to three hours of the chiller's electrical draw) +- Battery: **271 kWh** Gobel stack (ride-through, roughly + two to three hours of the chiller's electrical draw; peak shaving earns + little under PEA's time-of-use tariff, see + [sustainability](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides)) ## Steam and fuel diff --git a/docs/sustainability.md b/docs/sustainability.md index 6d40a8b..3483dac 100644 --- a/docs/sustainability.md +++ b/docs/sustainability.md @@ -27,14 +27,19 @@ at 10 bar / 180 °C) and the 250 kW cooling system. rack's DC voltage window to the specific Deye model (a full 15-pack rack can exceed the 800 V window of the smaller Deye series), and obtaining Gobel's safety certifications (not published) for a Thai commercial - install. At 271 kWh the stack is a peak-shaving and ride-through buffer, - not full off-grid autonomy, against loads like the 250 kW cooling system. + install. At 271 kWh the stack is a ride-through buffer, not full + off-grid autonomy, against loads like the 250 kW cooling system; under + PEA's time-of-use tariff it earns little from peak shaving + ([grid tariff](#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides)). - The machine load and cooling system are straightforward PV targets. -- Steam is the open engineering question. Options under evaluation include an - electric boiler (maximizes the solar share), a biomass boiler (locally - abundant fuel), and solar-thermal pre-heating of boiler feedwater. No - technology choice has been made yet; it will be driven by honest numbers on - load profiles, storage, and grid backup, not by what sounds greenest. +- Steam is the open engineering question. Options under evaluation are an + electric boiler (maximizes the solar share) and a biomass boiler (locally + abundant fuel); solar-thermal pre-heating of boiler feedwater was + considered and is not recommended. No technology choice has been made + yet; it will be driven by honest numbers on load profiles, storage, and + grid backup, not by what sounds greenest. At PEA's tariff, biomass heat + costs about a tenth of electric steam + ([grid tariff](#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides)). - Whole-factory HVAC (continuous temperature, humidity, and PM control, see [facility systems](facility-security.md)) adds a major tropical-climate load on top of process cooling and must be part of the PV and battery @@ -117,9 +122,10 @@ reusing it before generating anything new: dehumidification reheat (the 35 to 60% RH spec means air is cooled below dew point and reheated continuously) run on recovered press heat instead of fresh electricity. -- **Solar thermal feedwater preheat**: flat-plate or evacuated-tube - collectors reach 60 to 90 °C trivially in the Thai sun; cheap, proven, and - stackable with the heat pump recovery. +- **Solar thermal feedwater preheat** (considered, not recommended): + flat-plate or evacuated-tube collectors reach 60 to 90 °C easily in the + Thai sun, but that is the temperature the heat pump already recovers for + free, and the roof earns more as PV (see the grid tariff section below). - **Steam accumulator**: the presses draw steam in bursts, so an accumulator (already a Newbilt option) lets a smaller boiler ride the peaks. - **The boiler only does the final lift**: whichever technology is chosen @@ -145,6 +151,94 @@ diesel means a fuel tank with price exposure. The electric and biomass paths avoid a fossil tank on the property entirely, which matters for both the sustainability commitments and the BOI story. +### Grid tariff (PEA) and what it decides + +Source: PEA's electricity tariff schedule effective from the May 2023 bill +(unofficial English translation, filed as +[`finance/pea/EN_Electricity_Tariffs_May_2023.pdf`](finance/pea/EN_Electricity_Tariffs_May_2023.pdf)), +still the current schedule on PEA's +[tariff page](https://www.pea.co.th/en/our-services/tariff), and the Ft on +PEA's [Ft page](https://www.pea.co.th/en/our-services/tariff/ft), both +checked 7 October 2026. Plant consumption and demand are this repo's +estimates ([scale](scale.md)). + +**Which tariff applies.** At 300 to 750 kW of peak demand the plant is +Schedule 3, Medium General Service (30 to under 1,000 kW and at most +250,000 kWh a month on a three-month average). The flat-rate 3.1 is closed +to customers classified after November 2015, so a new plant is on **3.2, +Time of Use**, and with a 22 kV connection on 3.2.2: + +| Item | Rate | +|---|---| +| Demand charge | 132.93 THB per kW of the highest 15-minute demand in peak hours | +| Energy, peak (09:00 to 22:00, Monday to Friday) | 4.1839 THB/kWh | +| Energy, off-peak (22:00 to 09:00 on weekdays; all day on weekends and public holidays) | 2.6037 THB/kWh | +| Service charge | 312.24 THB/month | +| Ft, fuel adjustment (September to December 2026) | +0.1623 THB/kWh, reset every four months | +| VAT | 7 % on top; reclaimable for a VAT-registered company, so left out below | + +Rules that shape the design: metering on the low-voltage side of our own +transformer adds 2 % to kW and kWh, so meter at 22 kV; the minimum bill is +70 % of the highest demand charge of the last twelve months; a power factor +below about 0.85 (reactive demand above 61.97 % of active) costs 56.07 THB +per kVAR, so the motor loads need correction. With electric steam the plant +would average ~210,000 kWh a month (estimate) and busy months could cross +250,000, which moves it to Schedule 4; that schedule's TOU rate 4.2.2 is +identical, so the price does not change. Connecting a high-voltage meter +below 69 kV costs a 15,000 THB inspection fee plus a security deposit of +400 THB per kVA (PEA tariff page, rates from January 2020): 200k to 400k +THB for a 500 to 1,000 kVA transformer. + +**What it costs the plant.** Two shifts from 06:00 to 22:00 on ~300 days +(about 243 weekdays and 57 Saturdays, estimate) put ~66 % of process energy +into peak hours: a blended **~3.81 THB/kWh** including Ft, before the +demand charge. Without electric steam (1,000 to 1,500 MWh a year, 300 to +450 kW peak) the bill comes to roughly **4.3M to 6.4M THB a year** before +solar, 0.5M to 0.7M of it demand charge (estimate). + +**Electric versus biomass steam**, for the same heat as in +[biomass](biomass.md): 350 to 400 t of wood at 80 % boiler efficiency, +~1,120 to 1,280 MWh of heat a year at maturity. + +| | Electric boiler (~98 %) | Biomass boiler (~80 %) | +|---|---|---| +| Price of heat | ~3.9 THB/kWh, plus the demand charge | ~0.3 to 0.6 THB/kWh at 1 to 2 THB/kg of fuel (fuel price not yet checked with local suppliers) | +| Running cost, mature two shifts | **~4.7M to 5.5M THB/yr**: 1,140 to 1,310 MWh plus 200 to 300 kW of extra peak demand (0.3M to 0.5M) | **~0.35M to 0.8M THB/yr** of fuel, plus fuel handling and ash | +| Boiler package ([utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv)) | 2.5M to 4M THB | 4M to 7M THB, plus the fuel store | +| Grid | peak demand 600 to 750 kW: bigger transformer and deposit | unchanged | + +The electric boiler is the more efficient machine; biomass is by far the +cheaper heat. At maturity the fuel saving of ~4M to 5M THB a year repays +the biomass premium in about a year (estimate). Even early, at a quarter of +the heat, electric steam costs ~1.4M to 1.7M THB a year against ~0.1M to +0.2M of fuel, because the demand charge is set by the boiler's full-power +draw, not by its average. Moving electric steam to off-peak hours barely +helps: the presses need steam while they run, and the peak window covers +13 of the 16 production hours. The staged electric-first path in +[biomass](biomass.md) is therefore a permitting and fuel-logistics choice, +not a cost one. + +**PV, not solar thermal.** Self-consumed PV is worth **~3.7 THB/kWh** +(weekday daytime at the peak rate, weekends and early mornings at +off-peak, Ft included), so the 247 kWp roof saves ~1.2M to 1.3M THB a year +and pays back in **~4.5 to 7 years** at 25,000 to 35,000 THB/kWp +(estimate). It does not lower the demand charge, because the peak window +runs to 22:00, long after sunset. Solar thermal loses on every count here: +flat-plate and evacuated-tube collectors reach only the 60 to 90 °C that +the feedwater heat pump already recovers from the press cooling return; +concentrating collectors that could reach 180 °C need strong direct sun, +which northern Thailand's haze and burning season do not give; and PV +through a heat pump at a COP of ~3 delivers low-grade heat for ~1.2 +THB/kWh while also serving every other load. So the roof gets PV +throughout and no solar thermal, and feedwater preheat stays with heat +recovery. + +**The battery does not pay through the tariff.** Charging off-peak and +discharging at peak earns ~1.1 THB/kWh after losses, ~70k THB a year for +the 271 kWh stack, and spread over the 13-hour weekday peak window it can +hold demand down by only ~20 kW (~30k THB a year) (estimates). Its case is +ride-through and outage resilience, not peak shaving. + ## Water supply The zero-discharge commitment below governs water *leaving* the plant. It