From 89da2af9c33bd5a4824eb5d445baa42ac6b24ae4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: grabowski <berwn@buildfor.life>
Date: Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:46:27 +0700
Subject: [PATCH] Add total investment roll-up: 4M-7.7M EUR full vision,
 1.5M-2.5M EUR phased entry

All sums and conversions reviewer-recomputed; every block carries its
basis (quote, researched range, or marked estimate)
---
 README.md                        |  3 ++
 docs/finance/total-investment.md | 60 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 2 files changed, 63 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 docs/finance/total-investment.md

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index 6e80d81..02f8714 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -92,6 +92,9 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
 - [Project scale](docs/scale.md): rough numbers for everything on one page:
   output capacity, building area, land, electrical demand, solar and
   storage, steam and fuel, headcount, and money cross-references
+- [Total investment](docs/finance/total-investment.md): the full-vision
+  roll-up (~4M to 7.7M EUR) and the ~1.5M to 2.5M EUR phased entry, with
+  the basis of every block
 
 ## Repository Layout
 
diff --git a/docs/finance/total-investment.md b/docs/finance/total-investment.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..83cddbb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/docs/finance/total-investment.md
@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+# Total Investment: Rough Picture
+
+Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked
+"estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the
+researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide
+margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.
+FX: ~38 THB/EUR. Compiled July 2026.
+
+## Full vision, all blocks
+
+| Block | Low (EUR) | High (EUR) | Basis |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 300,000 | 320,000 | 2024 quote 200,500 + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~100,000; expired, needs re-quote |
+| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 500,000 | 800,000 | unverified ~$340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning |
+| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix) | 280,000 | 560,000 | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research |
+| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 80,000 | 210,000 | utilities CSV option row, 3-8M THB |
+| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 50,000 | 150,000 | estimate, pricing unpublished |
+| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew lathe and head, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 250,000 | 500,000 | estimate, bespoke market |
+| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 300,000 | 700,000 | estimate, phaseable |
+| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 630,000 | 1,100,000 | reviewed utilities CSV, 23.98-41.63M THB |
+| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 560,000 | 950,000 | estimate at 12,000-20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
+| Land 6-8 rai, if purchased | 315,000 | 840,000 | estimate at 2-4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
+| Traceability and factory software | 50,000 | 150,000 | estimate |
+| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 100,000 | 200,000 | estimate |
+| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 100,000 | 200,000 | estimate |
+| Subtotal | ~3,500,000 | ~6,700,000 | |
+| Contingency 15% | ~500,000 | ~1,000,000 | |
+| **Total, full vision** | **~4,000,000** | **~7,700,000** | **~150M to 290M THB** |
+
+## Phased entry
+
+A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly **1.5M to 2.5M EUR**:
+
+- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
+- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
+- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full
+  metrology deferred
+- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
+- Galvanics, automated presses, full metrology, and the biomass boiler
+  follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions
+
+The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the
+bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass
+steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for
+exactly this reason.
+
+## What moves the number
+
+- **BOI**: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment
+  blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption
+  headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see
+  [boi.md](../boi.md))
+- **Buy vs lease** on land and building swings roughly 0.9M to 1.8M EUR of
+  upfront capital
+- **Biggest uncertainty bands**: metrology (partly a choice of ambition),
+  the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the
+  automated presses (single unverified price point), and land
+- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in
+  [equipment-suppliers.md](../suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md) lists who
+  to ask