diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 97180dc..7ad92a6 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -90,15 +90,15 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents: the full needs list per production step with supplier tables and contacts - [Sustainability](docs/sustainability.md): the solar installation (Deye inverters, 271 kWh Gobel Power battery stack), the PEA grid tariff and - what it decides (biomass steam at about a tenth of the cost of electric, - PV rather than solar thermal), the zero contaminated water commitment, + what it decides (biomass steam at a quarter to a tenth of the cost of + electric, PV rather than solar thermal), the zero contaminated water commitment, and the materials strategy - [Worker safety](docs/worker-safety.md): safety training, galvanics clean rooms and decontamination, PPE - [Biomass fuel strategy](docs/biomass.md): the 60 rai own-grown coppice idea (with the forestry-classification check that comes first), northern - agricultural waste as the main supply, and the staged electric-to-biomass - path + agricultural waste as the main supply, reported northern fuel prices + (October 2026) and who sets them, and the staged electric-to-biomass path - [BOI investment promotion](docs/boi.md): the promotion strategy (Group B base activity plus solar, automation, and R&D measures for the tax value), requirements, Northern-region angle, and why BOI approval precedes @@ -208,7 +208,8 @@ docs/ │ └── pressing-line.md Press fleet strategy and equipment plan ├── finance/ Project cost overviews, revenue model, │ construction RFQ, PEA electricity tariff -│ schedule (pea/) +│ schedule (pea/), biomass fuel market +│ reports (biomass/) ├── suppliers/ Supplier contacts, vendor landscape, supplier map ├── artist-platform.md Upload, price calculator, fan-funded pressing ├── biomass.md Biomass fuel strategy and the 60 rai coppice idea diff --git a/docs/biomass.md b/docs/biomass.md index b9286b4..bfb2803 100644 --- a/docs/biomass.md +++ b/docs/biomass.md @@ -18,6 +18,9 @@ recovery architecture trimming the load and realistic duty cycles: efficiency and ~4 kWh/kg air-dry wood) - Early operations (one press line, single shift): roughly a quarter of that, **~90 to 100 t/yr** +- Bought as fresh wood chips (~45 % moisture, ~2.6 kWh/kg) the same heat + is **~540 to 620 t/yr**, which is what the fuel store and the monsoon + stock have to be sized for (estimate) ## The 60 rai: own-grown fuelwood @@ -32,7 +35,9 @@ about **80 to 135 t/yr**: That makes the land a meaningful supplement and a strong brand story ("records pressed with steam from our own trees"), not a complete fuel -supply. +supply. At the market prices below, 80 to 135 t of air-dry wood is worth +only ~0.1M to 0.25M THB a year (estimate): the land's value is supply +security and the story, not the fuel bill. ### The classification check comes first @@ -62,6 +67,60 @@ The region fills the remainder easily and cheaply: - Buying from local farmers also strengthens the local-sourcing story that already runs through packaging and PVC +## Fuel prices (market check, October 2026) + +There is no public price index for biomass fuel in northern Thailand. DEDE +publishes lists of buyers and sellers (February 2026: 42 registered buyers +wanting 2.09M t a year), not prices, so the figures below are reported +market prices from bank research, a government industry unit and the +press, all checked 7 October 2026. None is a quote to this plant. + +| Fuel | Reported price | Source | Heat cost (estimate) | +|---|---|---|---| +| Wood chips, fresh (45 to 50 % moisture) | 1,350 to 1,800 THB/t delivered | [LH Bank Research, wood pellet outlook](finance/biomass/LHBank_Wood_Pellets_Industry_Outlook_2026-03.pdf), 9 March 2026: 1,700 to 1,800 THB per fresh tonne for export; a power-plant chip quota in Nakhon Ratchasima at 1,350 THB/t, at most 45 % moisture (undated trader post) | ~0.65 to 0.85 THB/kWh | +| Firewood and rubberwood offcuts, air-dry | over 1 THB/kg at the farm gate, up from 0.55 to 0.70 before late 2025 | [OIE Rubber Intelligence Unit](https://rubber.oie.go.th/Article.aspx?id=66365), 2026; southern rubber belt, so chipping and haulage to Lamphun come on top | ~0.3 to 0.5 THB/kWh before chipping and haulage | +| Corn cobs and stalk residue | 2 THB/kg, bought from farmers in Mae Chaem (Chiang Mai) | Sunsweet's "no burning, we buy" programme, [Prachachat](https://www.prachachat.net/economic/local-economy/news-1498508), February 2024; an incentive price set to stop field burning | ~0.6 THB/kWh | +| Rice husk | ~1.5 THB/kg at past demand peaks | [FTI renewable energy group](https://re-fti.org/%E0%B9%84%E0%B8%9F%E0%B8%9F%E0%B9%89%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%8A%E0%B8%B5%E0%B8%A7%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%A7%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B8%AA%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%B3%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%84%E0%B8%B2%E0%B9%81%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%9E%E0%B8%B8%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%87/) (undated); power plants compete for it and northern milling volumes are small | ~0.5 THB/kWh | +| Wood pellets, domestic | 3,000 to 5,000 THB/t | LH Bank Research, March 2026; export FOB averaged 4,482 THB/t in 2025 | ~0.75 to 1.25 THB/kWh | + +Heat cost assumes an 80 % boiler (85 % on pellets) and ~2.6 kWh/kg for +fresh chips, ~4 for air-dry wood, ~4.2 for corn cobs, ~3.75 for rice husk +and ~4.7 for pellets (estimates). + +What it means for the plan: + +- **Planning price: 1.35 to 2 THB/kg delivered**, which is ~0.5 to 0.9 THB + per kWh of heat. The earlier assumption of 1 to 2 THB/kg of air-dry wood + (~0.3 to 0.6 THB/kWh) was too low at the bottom: the cheap end is + farm-gate wood, not chipped fuel at the plant gate. At maturity the fuel + bill is **~0.6M to 1.2M THB a year** (~0.15M to 0.3M early), still a + quarter to a tenth of electric steam (see + [grid tariff](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides)) +- **Prices are rising and follow diesel.** With diesel near 40 THB/L in + 2026, chip traders feeding power plants parked trucks and cut purchases + ([Thai Post](https://www.thaipost.net/district-news/971839/), 30 March + 2026), and rubberwood firewood roughly doubled since late 2025. Haulage + is a large share of a delivered tonne, so source within ~50 km and write + a diesel clause into the fuel contract rather than a fixed price +- **Supply is not the constraint.** Lamphun alone produces more than + 900,000 t of farm residues a year (Maejo University, via + [ThaiPublica](https://thaipublica.org/2026/08/lamphun-reduce-pm2-5-agricultural-waste-biomass-fuel/), + August 2026) against the plant's ~600 t. Buying them also counts against + the burning season, which is part of the story +- **The local price-setter is in Mueang Lamphun.** Ratch Pathana's + [biomass buying centre](https://www.ratchpathana.com/th/our-businesses/related-and-other-businesses/biomass-business) + at Pa Sak, Mueang Lamphun, buys wood waste, sawdust and corn cobs from + farmers for Saha Cogen Green's 9.6 MW, 25 t/h steam cogeneration plant + in the Saha Group Lamphun industrial park. It is the reference price to + ask for and the main competitor for the same fuel. Further out, Clover + Power at Wang Chin (Phrae) buys chips, corn husks and cobs, and bamboo + ([DEDE buyer list](finance/biomass/DEDE_biomass_buyers_2026-02.pdf), + February 2026) +- **Next step:** written quotes from the Pa Sak centre and two or three + chip suppliers within 50 km, priced by moisture content (an oven-dry + tonne carries roughly twice the heat of a fresh one), before the boiler + decision + ## Logistics on site To reflect in the facility planning: a fuel storage shed (biomass @@ -82,8 +141,8 @@ storage are additional. - The electric boiler remains the alternative: cleanest permitting, no fuel logistics, but effectively grid-powered steam at a ~300 kW draw. On PEA's time-of-use tariff that costs ~4.7M to 5.5M THB a year at mature - load against ~0.35M to 0.8M of fuel for biomass, and ~1.4M to 1.7M - against ~0.1M to 0.2M at early load, because the demand charge follows + load against ~0.6M to 1.2M of fuel for biomass, and ~1.4M to 1.7M + against ~0.15M to 0.3M at early load, because the demand charge follows the boiler's full-power draw (estimates; see the [grid tariff](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides)). The electric boiler is the more efficient machine; biomass is the far @@ -92,6 +151,6 @@ storage are additional. the coppice now (first harvest in 2 to 4 years), and add the biomass boiler at the automated-line expansion when demand and the fuel supply have both matured. At the tariff above that is a permitting and logistics - choice, not a cost one: every year on electric steam costs roughly 1.2M - to 5M THB more than biomass, so the switch should come as soon as the + choice, not a cost one: every year on electric steam costs roughly 1.1M + to 4.9M THB more than biomass, so the switch should come as soon as the permit and a fuel contract are in place diff --git a/docs/finance/biomass/DEDE_biomass_buyers_2026-02.pdf b/docs/finance/biomass/DEDE_biomass_buyers_2026-02.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2b00d1b Binary files /dev/null and b/docs/finance/biomass/DEDE_biomass_buyers_2026-02.pdf differ diff --git a/docs/finance/biomass/LHBank_Wood_Pellets_Industry_Outlook_2026-03.pdf b/docs/finance/biomass/LHBank_Wood_Pellets_Industry_Outlook_2026-03.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0a249f8 Binary files /dev/null and b/docs/finance/biomass/LHBank_Wood_Pellets_Industry_Outlook_2026-03.pdf differ diff --git a/docs/sustainability.md b/docs/sustainability.md index 3483dac..5da85e7 100644 --- a/docs/sustainability.md +++ b/docs/sustainability.md @@ -37,8 +37,9 @@ at 10 bar / 180 °C) and the 250 kW cooling system. abundant fuel); solar-thermal pre-heating of boiler feedwater was considered and is not recommended. No technology choice has been made yet; it will be driven by honest numbers on load profiles, storage, and - grid backup, not by what sounds greenest. At PEA's tariff, biomass heat - costs about a tenth of electric steam + grid backup, not by what sounds greenest. At PEA's tariff and current + northern fuel prices, biomass heat costs a quarter to a tenth of electric + steam ([grid tariff](#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides)). - Whole-factory HVAC (continuous temperature, humidity, and PM control, see [facility systems](facility-security.md)) adds a major tropical-climate @@ -202,16 +203,16 @@ solar, 0.5M to 0.7M of it demand charge (estimate). | | Electric boiler (~98 %) | Biomass boiler (~80 %) | |---|---|---| -| Price of heat | ~3.9 THB/kWh, plus the demand charge | ~0.3 to 0.6 THB/kWh at 1 to 2 THB/kg of fuel (fuel price not yet checked with local suppliers) | -| Running cost, mature two shifts | **~4.7M to 5.5M THB/yr**: 1,140 to 1,310 MWh plus 200 to 300 kW of extra peak demand (0.3M to 0.5M) | **~0.35M to 0.8M THB/yr** of fuel, plus fuel handling and ash | +| Price of heat | ~3.9 THB/kWh, plus the demand charge | ~0.5 to 0.9 THB/kWh at 1.35 to 2 THB/kg delivered ([reported market prices](biomass.md#fuel-prices-market-check-october-2026), October 2026; no supplier quote yet) | +| Running cost, mature two shifts | **~4.7M to 5.5M THB/yr**: 1,140 to 1,310 MWh plus 200 to 300 kW of extra peak demand (0.3M to 0.5M) | **~0.6M to 1.2M THB/yr** of fuel, plus fuel handling and ash | | Boiler package ([utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv)) | 2.5M to 4M THB | 4M to 7M THB, plus the fuel store | | Grid | peak demand 600 to 750 kW: bigger transformer and deposit | unchanged | The electric boiler is the more efficient machine; biomass is by far the -cheaper heat. At maturity the fuel saving of ~4M to 5M THB a year repays -the biomass premium in about a year (estimate). Even early, at a quarter of -the heat, electric steam costs ~1.4M to 1.7M THB a year against ~0.1M to -0.2M of fuel, because the demand charge is set by the boiler's full-power +cheaper heat. At maturity the fuel saving of ~3.5M to 4.9M THB a year +repays the biomass premium in under a year (estimate). Even early, at a +quarter of the heat, electric steam costs ~1.4M to 1.7M THB a year against +~0.15M to 0.3M of fuel, because the demand charge is set by the boiler's full-power draw, not by its average. Moving electric steam to off-peak hours barely helps: the presses need steam while they run, and the peak window covers 13 of the 16 production hours. The staged electric-first path in