diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 6529725..29e46e9 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -110,11 +110,21 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents: - [Revenue model](docs/finance/revenue-model.md): rough full-capacity revenue (~3.7M to 6.8M USD/yr), direct cost and margin per record, and the levers and caveats behind the numbers +- [Business plan](docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan.docx): the + investor-facing roll-up of everything above, built from + `docs/business-plan/build/` (run `python build_plan.py` to regenerate + after the numbers move). Draft 0.1 carries the land-lease decision, the + cassette and CD scope, and Ploy Printing as packaging partner and + intended co-investor ## Repository Layout ``` docs/ +├── business-plan/ +│ ├── CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan.docx Investor business plan (generated) +│ └── build/ Python source of the plan; regenerate with +│ build_plan.py ├── consulting/ Consultancy proposals and overviews ├── equipment/ │ ├── newbilt/ Offers, site requirements, process schematic, diff --git a/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan.docx b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan.docx new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b137c5c Binary files /dev/null and b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan.docx differ diff --git a/docs/business-plan/build/build_plan.py b/docs/business-plan/build/build_plan.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2a06b91 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/business-plan/build/build_plan.py @@ -0,0 +1,33 @@ +"""Build the CNX Vinyl business plan .docx. + + python build_plan.py -> ../CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan.docx + python build_plan.py out.docx -> custom path + +Images are resolved relative to docs/ (the parent of business-plan/). +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent +sys.path.insert(0, str(HERE)) + +from plan_lib import Renderer # noqa: E402 +import content_a, content_b, content_c # noqa: E402 + +DOCS = HERE.parent.parent # .../docs +OUT = HERE.parent / "CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan.docx" + + +def main(out: Path = OUT) -> Path: + r = Renderer(DOCS, header_text="CNX Vinyl / Poy Records: Business plan, draft 0.1, September 2026", + footer_text="Confidential") + r.render(content_a.blocks() + content_b.blocks() + content_c.blocks()) + r.save(out) + return out + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + target = Path(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv) > 1 else OUT + print(main(target)) diff --git a/docs/business-plan/build/content_a.py b/docs/business-plan/build/content_a.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cf18c76 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/business-plan/build/content_a.py @@ -0,0 +1,522 @@ +"""Part A: cover, reading guide, executive summary, opportunity, anatomy of the plant.""" +from plan_lib import H1, H2, H3, P, B, N, T, KV, IMG, CALL, PB, TOC, COVER + + +def blocks(): + out = [] + + # ------------------------------------------------------------ cover + out.append(COVER( + kicker="CNX VINYL / POY RECORDS", + title="What It Takes to Build a Top-Notch Vinyl Plant", + subtitle="Business plan for a full-service vinyl, cassette and CD manufacturing plant " + "in the Chiang Mai region, Northern Thailand", + image="renders/aerial-hero.png", + lines=[ + "**Prepared for:** the project's lead investor", + "**Prepared by:** Simona Meesaiyati (Project Lead) and Alexander Grabowski (Technical Consultant), " + "supported by buildfor.life, with Ploy Printing (Chiang Mai) as packaging partner and " + "strategic co-investor", + "**Version:** Draft 0.1, September 2026", + ], + note="Confidential. All figures in USD and THB at 1 USD = 33 THB (August 2026). Vendor quotes are " + "snapshots at their file dates, not commitments. Every number in this plan is labelled as quoted, " + "researched, or estimated; see section 2.", + )) + out.append(TOC()) + + # ------------------------------------------------ 1 executive summary + out += [ + H1("1. Executive summary"), + P("CNX Vinyl (label name Poy Records) is a planned record manufacturing plant for the Chiang Mai " + "region of Northern Thailand. Its premise is simple: a label or artist in Asia-Pacific should be " + "able to send an audio file to one place and receive finished, packaged, fully traceable records at " + "their door, without shipping a fragile lacquer disc across the world and without waiting for metal " + "stampers to come back from Europe. Today that customer presses in Europe, the United States or " + "Japan. The one operating pressing shop in Thailand presses only: it buys its stampers abroad, runs " + "without climate control, and cannot economically serve runs under 300 units."), + P("This document explains, for a reader who is not a vinyl specialist, what a top-notch plant " + "consists of, why each part matters, what it costs, what it can earn, how long it takes, and what " + "could go wrong. It is built from the project's planning repository and vendor documents, and it " + "keeps the honest parts: where a number is an estimate, it says so; where the evidence is thin, it " + "says that too."), + H2("What we will build"), + B([ + "**The complete vinyl chain under one roof:** mastering, lacquer cutting, galvanics (making the " + "nickel stampers), pressing, finishing, packaging with our Chiang Mai print partner Ploy " + "Printing, and fulfilment including direct-to-fan dropshipping.", + "**A mixed press fleet:** semi-automatic presses for colour, splatter and short runs, fully " + "automatic presses for volume. Launch with one semi-automatic line (90,000 to 135,000 records a " + "year); grow to four presses (1.0 to 1.5 million records a year).", + "**Cassette duplication in-house** and **short-run CD duplication** from launch. Full CD " + "replication (injection-moulded discs) is a separate, much larger decision; both CD options are " + "priced in section 4.9 for the investor to decide.", + "**A purpose-built 1,500 m² plant on long-term leased land**, with a detached utility yard, " + "a rooftop solar array, and room for a second building. The land is now planned as a " + "registered long lease rather than a purchase, which lowers upfront capital by roughly " + "USD 0.4 to 1.0 million.", + ]), + H2("What makes it top-notch"), + P("Four things separate this plant from a pressing shop, and they are the reason it can charge " + "export-grade prices in a region that currently has none:"), + N([ + "**Traceability from audio file to shipment.** Every lacquer, father, mother, stamper, press " + "cycle, compound lot and carton lot gets an identity that knows its parents. A customer sees " + "their order's full chain; a complaint resolves to one stamper, one press, one shift and one " + "material lot. Machine data comes from the machines, not from paperwork.", + "**Metrology and layered quality control.** The nickel parts are measured without contact " + "(laser confocal, wide-area profiler, XRF thickness) and logged per serial, which is ahead of " + "industry practice. Every pressed record passes 100% inline optical inspection, every press " + "cycle is logged, and sampled records are compared automatically against the source master.", + "**Efficiency designed in.** Heat is recovered before energy is generated (the presses' own " + "60 °C cooling return pre-heats the boiler feedwater), ~290 kWp of rooftop solar at phase 1 " + "grows to ~500 kWp with the second building, a 271 kWh battery shaves peaks, cooling runs as a " + "closed loop, no process water is discharged, and 20% of the feedstock is in-house regrind. One " + "operator runs up to four automatic presses.", + "**Climate control as product quality.** The whole plant runs at 20 to 26 °C, 35 to 60% " + "relative humidity, with particulate filtration sized for Northern Thailand's burning season. " + "Moisture and dust are the two classic causes of noisy records; the incumbent has neither " + "control.", + ]), + H2("The numbers"), + KV([ + ["Capacity", "Launch ~90k to 135k records/yr (1 semi-automatic line, 1 shift); mature ~1.0M to " + "1.5M records/yr (2 semi-automatic + 2 automatic presses, 2 shifts)"], + ["Site", "~1,500 m² main building plus ~180 m² utility yard on ~5 to 8 rai of leased land; " + "second 1,710 m² building as expansion"], + ["Investment, full vision", "~USD 4.4M to 8.0M (~THB 144M to 264M) including 15% contingency " + "(was 4.7M to 8.9M before the decision to lease the land)"], + ["Investment, phase 1 launch", "~USD 2.2M to 3.9M (~THB 73M to 128M) including the building, " + "one press line, climate control, rooftop solar, cassette and CD-R " + "lines, working capital and contingency"], + ["Land lease", "Estimated THB 0.3M to 1.0M per year (USD 9k to 30k), to be replaced by the " + "negotiated figure"], + ["Revenue at maturity", "~USD 3.7M to 6.8M per year (~THB 122M to 224M)"], + ["Operating result at maturity", "Central case EBITDA ~USD 2.6M, operating profit ~USD 2.0M, " + "payback 2 to 4 years. Adverse case is EBITDA-positive but " + "does not cover depreciation. Utilisation and price " + "realisation decide the outcome, not upside."], + ["First paying release", "Q4 2028 to mid-2029 if the gates below start now; one regulatory " + "question (ordering machinery before the BOI certificate) could pull " + "that forward by 6 to 9 months"], + ["People", "~15 to 25 at maturity across shifts, fewer than half that at launch"], + ]), + H2("Where we are, and what we ask"), + P("The project is at the planning stage. Industry outreach has run for several years; vendor quotes " + "exist for the pressing line, utilities have been costed with Thai suppliers, a parametric building " + "model has produced quantities for a construction price request, and a candidate parcel in Mueang " + "Chi, Lamphun has been tested against the design. Nothing has been ordered."), + P("Three gates run now and in parallel: **market validation** with regional labels and at the Making " + "Vinyl trade show in Haarlem (autumn 2026); the **BOI investment promotion** track with a " + "registered consultant; and **land**: zoning verification, lease terms, and a soil test. Nothing " + "large is spent until its gate clears."), + CALL("What the investor is asked to fund now", [ + "**Phase 0 (next 3 to 6 months): ~USD 40k to 80k** for the BOI consultant, Thai legal work on " + "the lease and zoning, a soil boring test, the trade-show trip, firm re-quotes from the press, " + "galvanics and building vendors, and optional specialist consultancy.", + "**Phase 1 (commitment after the BOI certificate and validated pricing): ~USD 2.2M to 3.9M** " + "released in tranches against milestones: lease signed, press order, building contract, " + "fit-out, commissioning.", + "**Decisions needed from the investor:** CD scope (duplication only, or full replication), " + "whether galvanics moves into phase 1, and the equity/debt mix (BOI requires debt-to-equity " + "of at most 3:1).", + "**Co-investment:** Ploy Printing, the Chiang Mai print and packaging house that will produce " + "the plant's jackets and sleeves, has expressed the intention to invest alongside the lead " + "investor. Terms are not yet discussed; the intended structure is described in section 12.", + ]), + + # ----------------------------------------------- 2 reading guide + H1("2. How to read the numbers"), + P("Every figure in this plan carries one of three confidence levels. Where a table does not say, " + "the basis column or caption does."), + T(["Label", "Meaning", "Examples"], [ + ["Quoted", "A vendor document exists, in its original currency. Quotes may have expired and " + "need re-confirmation.", "Newbilt pressing line (EUR 200,500, June 2024); Newbilt " + "service rates; Gobel battery list price"], + ["Researched", "Published or market data gathered by the team, including one set of real Thai " + "invoices.", "Thai utility supplier ranges; Pheenix AD12 datasheet; domestic " + "pressing prices, August 2026; BOI measures"], + ["Estimate", "Engineering ratio or industry norm with no vendor confirmation. Treat as " + "plus or minus 30 to 50%.", "Building cost per m²; galvanics line; mastering " + "room; metrology stack; land lease; all cassette and " + "CD figures"], + ], widths_mm=[22, 70, 78]), + P("Currency: USD and THB at 1 USD = 33 THB (5 August 2026). Vendor quotes issued in EUR or GBP are " + "kept in their currency next to their source and converted at 1 EUR = 1.155 USD and " + "1 GBP = 1.35 USD. Currency exposure is real and is discussed in section 8.5."), + P("Deliberately **not** in this plan: a financing structure or terms (to be agreed with the investor); " + "a signed customer; a signed lease; firm quotes for the automatic presses, the galvanics line, the " + "mastering room or the building. Each of these is a named next step in section 14."), + + # ------------------------------------------------- 3 opportunity + H1("3. The opportunity"), + H2("3.1 The product"), + P("A vinyl record is made by cutting the audio into a soft lacquer disc, growing a set of nickel " + "metal parts from that lacquer by electroplating (the 'stampers'), and pressing hot PVC between two " + "stampers under about 150 tonnes of force with steam heating and water cooling. The record is then " + "trimmed, labelled, sleeved, put into a printed jacket, shrink-wrapped and shipped. Each of these " + "steps has its own equipment, skills and failure modes, and most plants in the world do only some " + "of them, sending the rest out to specialists, often on other continents."), + P("Demand for vinyl has grown for well over a decade from a small base. The 2021 to 2022 boom " + "pushed lead times at European and US plants to six to nine months; they have since normalised to " + "roughly 10 to 16 weeks for a standard black LP, and global capacity has been added. Demand is " + "cyclical and this plan does not assume it only rises; it assumes the plant can sell what it " + "presses, which is the single assumption most worth testing (section 3.3)."), + H2("3.2 Where regional labels press today"), + P("Labels and artists in Southeast Asia, Australia and much of East Asia ship their masters to " + "Europe, the United States or Japan, wait in those plants' queues, and pay freight and time zones " + "on top. There is no industrial-grade, climate-controlled, full-service plant in the region. That " + "is the gap. It is also the plan's biggest assumption: that enough regional customers will pay for " + "a closer, faster, more accountable plant at a price that works. That pricing power is unproven and " + "the market validation gate exists to test it before capital is committed."), + H2("3.3 What the Thai market shows: one real data point"), + P("In August 2026 the team compared real invoices from the one operating pressing shop in Thailand, " + "ResurRec in Bangkok (with whom a collaboration is also under discussion), and toured its plant. " + "This is one buyer, one plant, one afternoon, and it is deliberately not used to re-base the " + "financial model. But it is the only real market evidence so far, and it points in a useful " + "direction."), + T(["Item", "THB", "USD", "Note"], [ + ["Audio mastering", "5,000 to 20,000 per song", "150 to 605", "Market range from several engineers"], + ["Stamper set (father, mother, silvering)", "up to 22,000 per title", "up to 665", + "Residual between a full-service and a pressing-only invoice; an upper bound that also carries " + "cutting, test pressings and margin"], + ["All-in per 12-inch record at 300 units", "650 to 950", "19.70 to 28.80", + "Includes a printed jacket; discounts of 5% at 500, 15% at 1,000 to 3,000, 30% above 3,000, " + "with 2 to 4 weeks added lead time above 3,000"], + ["Minimum run", "150 units, 'rarely accepted'", "", "Sub-300 runs are effectively unavailable " + "in Thailand"], + ], widths_mm=[42, 36, 24, 68], + caption="Researched: buy-side invoices and published discount ladder, August 2026."), + P("What the tour showed: the incumbent operates from a small non-industrial premises; it does not " + "plate (stampers are bought in from abroad and resold); there is no temperature, humidity or " + "particulate control on the pressing floor; and it runs two Newbilt presses, one fully automatic " + "and one semi-automatic, which is a real capital fleet that on paper out-presses our launch " + "configuration two to three times over."), + P("Four readings follow, each with its caveat:"), + B([ + "**Domestic willingness to pay is higher than our model assumes.** The plan prices a record at " + "USD 3.50 to 4.60 blended (Western export benchmark). The Thai market pays 535 to 780 THB on a " + "comparable scope, several times more, even after allowing 100 to 150 THB for the jacket. The " + "caveat: a sole domestic supplier can hold an import-parity price that a second entrant " + "compresses. We kept the conservative price until a second data point exists.", + "**The floor of the market is unserved.** Runs under 300 are uneconomic for a shop whose " + "per-title cost is an imported stamper plus outsourced mastering. In-house cutting and plating " + "collapse that fixed cost, which makes short runs viable for CNX in a way they structurally are " + "not for the incumbent.", + "**Lead time degrades with run size, probably because of metalwork.** Three thousand units is " + "about two days of pressing on their fleet, yet they add two to four weeks. A stamper lasts " + "1,000 to 2,000 pressings, so a 3,000-unit run needs two or three sets, each an overseas order. " + "Jacket printing or floor space could produce the same symptom, and the cause should be " + "confirmed before it is treated as a structural weakness.", + "**The gap we close is capability, not capacity.** No plating, no climate control, no metrology, " + "no traceability. The incumbent sells commercially from that room today, which bounds how much " + "the Thai market currently pays for the difference. Our bet is on export-grade customers and on " + "regional labels who currently ship to Europe.", + ]), + CALL("Investor takeaway", "CNX should not fight a price war at 200-unit runs against an operator " + "with low rent and no climate-control load. It competes on what a non-plating, unconditioned " + "shop cannot offer at any run size: export-grade quality control and traceability, titles that " + "need plating, consistent output through the burning season, repress in days from an archived " + "mother, and short runs. A stamper-supply relationship with the incumbent is a plausible early " + "revenue line for the galvanics room and is under discussion."), + H2("3.4 Cassettes and CDs"), + P("The investor has asked for cassette and CD capability on the site. Both fit the same customer: " + "the independent label that presses 300 to 2,000 records also orders 100 to 500 cassettes and a " + "short run of CDs for the same release, and prefers one supplier, one artwork approval and one " + "shipment. Cassette sales have grown from a very low base in the US and UK over the last decade; " + "volumes are small and the equipment market is mostly refurbished, but the format is a natural " + "add-on with modest capital. CDs remain a large format in Asia (Japan and Korea in particular), " + "but industrial CD replication is an established, price-competitive business with existing " + "capacity across the region. Section 4.8 and 4.9 lay out both formats and the two very different " + "CD routes."), + + # ------------------------------------------ 4 anatomy of the plant + H1("4. Anatomy of a top-notch plant: the full chain"), + P("The chain from audio file to delivered record has nine stages and three points where the artist or " + "label must approve before work continues. Every stage writes to the traceability database, and " + "the instruments behind every check are specified in section 5. The chart on the next page shows " + "the whole chain; the table after it is the checklist of what a top-notch plant needs and where " + "this plan puts each item."), + PB(), + IMG("process-flow.png", 138, "Figure 1. Process flow from audio file to delivered product, with every " + "check and the three artist approval gates. Source: project repository."), + PB(), + H2("4.0 The checklist"), + T(["What a top-notch plant needs", "Why it matters", "This plan", "When"], [ + ["A quiet, vibration-free cutting room with a modern lathe", "The groove is born here; every " + "defect propagates to every record", "Agnew Analog Type 612 lathe and Type 602 head, " + "in-house at maturity; brokered through a European partner at launch", "Phase 5 (earlier if " + "demand shows)"], + ["In-house galvanics with zero-discharge water", "The regional bottleneck; enables repress in " + "days and short runs", "Digital Matrix plating line, clean room, evaporator-based water " + "recycling", "Phase 5; case for moving to phase 1 under review"], + ["Stamper preparation machines", "Turns a raw nickel shell into a press-ready part", + "Sibert punch, back-finisher, coiner", "With galvanics"], + ["A mixed press fleet", "Automatic for volume, semi-automatic for colour and short runs", + "Newbilt Single growing to Duplex; two automatic presses (Pheenix AD12 or Newbilt Classic)", + "Phase 1, then 5"], + ["Steam, cooling and compressed air engineered locally", "The largest energy loads; efficiency " + "lives here", "Thai-sourced packages with heat recovery designed in", "Phase 1"], + ["Whole-plant climate and particulate control", "Moisture and dust are the two classic record " + "defects", "20 to 26 °C, 35 to 60% RH, F7 to F9 filtration, HEPA in tight zones", "Phase 1"], + ["Metrology for the metal parts", "Data-backed accept/reject before a stamper is mounted", + "Laser confocal, wide-area profiler, XRF thickness, inline vision", "Phase 5; basic at launch"], + ["Layered QC for every record", "Catch defects at line speed without playing every record", + "100% optical inspection, per-cycle telemetry, sampled audio comparison", "Basic at phase 1, " + "full at phase 5"], + ["Traceability from file to shipment", "Complaints resolve backwards; customers see their " + "order; machine data access is a purchasing condition", "Batch genealogy database, PLC data " + "capture, customer portal", "Phase 1 (v1)"], + ["A materials lab", "PVC lots differ; a bad lot is a noisy run", "Per-lot gate: moisture, heat " + "stability, colour, density, granulate; release by test pressing", "Phase 1"], + ["A packaging partner and packaging QC", "Jackets are the path that slips; the wrong " + "record in the right jacket is the classic error", "Ploy Printing (Chiang Mai) for jackets, " + "sleeves, J-cards; matrix code scanned " + "against jacket barcode", "Phase 1"], + ["An archive for masters and mothers", "Irreplaceable metal; repress economics", + "Fire-rated, climate-controlled room with clean-agent suppression", "Phase 1"], + ["Renewable energy and closed-loop water", "Cost, resilience, brand, BOI tax value", + "~290 kWp PV, 271 kWh battery, closed cooling loop, zero process discharge", "Phase 1 to 2"], + ["Trained people and a safety program", "Steam at 10 bar, hydraulics at 180 bar, plating " + "chemistry", "Vendor commissioning training, in-house program, PPE, clean rooms", "Phase 1"], + ["Cassette and CD lines", "Same customers, one order, one shipment", "In-house cassette " + "duplication; CD-R duplication; CD replication as a separate option", "Phase 1 (replication " + "if chosen: phase 2)"], + ], widths_mm=[40, 45, 55, 30], font_pt=8.5), + + H2("4.1 Mastering and lacquer cutting"), + P("**What happens.** A mastering engineer prepares the audio for vinyl (levels, side length, " + "low-frequency handling), then a cutting lathe drives a heated stylus into a lacquer-coated " + "aluminium disc, cutting the groove in real time. The lacquer is soft nitrocellulose: heat- and " + "shock-sensitive, and it wants plating within one to three days. Lacquers do not travel well."), + P("**What it needs.** A disk mastering lathe and stereo cutter head, matched cutting amplifiers, a " + "mastering console and chain, a preview and pitch automation system, vacuum for platter hold-down " + "and chip suction, a groove inspection microscope, and a low-vibration, temperature-controlled " + "room away from the presses and compressor. Consumables are lacquer blanks and styli."), + P("**Who supplies it.** Agnew Analog Reference Instruments (Greece) builds the Type 612 lathe, " + "unveiled in 2023 and billed as the first all-new lacquer lathe since the 1960s, with the Type 602 " + "cutter head; bespoke, low-volume manufacturing with long build times. Cutter amplifiers, console, " + "preview automation and lacquer supply are open items."), + P("**Cost and phasing.** Estimated USD 290k to 580k for the room (bespoke market, no public " + "pricing). At launch, mastering is done by an external engineer and cutting is brokered through " + "Stamper Discs' European partners, so that the lacquer is cut and plated in the same region and " + "only nickel travels. Mastering is labour-bound: an engineer masters perhaps two to four songs a " + "day, which caps the title-services line and is discussed in section 9."), + + H2("4.2 Galvanics: silvering and electroforming"), + P("**What happens.** The lacquer is cleaned and sprayed with a conductive silver layer, then " + "electroplated with nickel to grow a negative metal copy, the 'father'. From the father a positive " + "'mother' is grown (playable, and archived), and from the mother the working 'stampers' that go " + "into the press. This three-step process means a fresh stamper can be pulled from an archived " + "mother in a day or two; a cheaper one-step stamper is single-use and a repress restarts at " + "cutting."), + P("**Why it is the key to the region.** No plating capability has been found in Thailand; the one " + "operating plant buys its stampers abroad. Every title in the country therefore waits on an " + "overseas order, which is the most plausible cause of the incumbent's lead-time penalty on larger " + "runs and its inability to take small ones. Bringing cutting and plating in-house takes an " + "estimated 1.5 to 5 weeks out of the lead time and USD 175 to 665 per title out of the cost, and " + "it is the one capability nobody in the country has."), + P("**What it needs.** A lacquer cleaning and silvering station, a low-stress nickel pre-plate, " + "production electroforming cells for the three generations, an electro-clean and passivation " + "station, a clean room with controlled access, fume extraction and scrubbing, and a closed-loop " + "rinse-water treatment and metal recovery system. The chemistry (silver nitrate, nickel salts) " + "sets the safety and permitting requirements: decontamination procedures, PPE, locked chemical " + "storage, eyewash and emergency shower, and hazardous-substance registration."), + P("**Who supplies it.** Plating Power / Digital Matrix Corporation (New York) is the dominant " + "turnkey vendor for vinyl galvanics (silvering, pre-plate, multi-cell electroforming, " + "passivation). They supply no water treatment: the zero-discharge system comes from an industrial " + "water vendor (Veolia or Hydrotek in Thailand integrating an imported evaporator), following the " + "zero-discharge plating room at Gotta Groove Records in Ohio as the reference model."), + P("**Cost and phasing.** Estimated USD 320k to 650k for the plating line plus USD 90k to 240k for " + "the water plant, plus a clean room. At launch, press-ready stampers come from Stamper Discs " + "(Sheffield, UK), a trade galvanics service that makes stampers to fit Newbilt moulds and ships to " + "30+ countries, under a written turnaround agreement. The roadmap places in-house galvanics in " + "phase 5, but the August 2026 market evidence argues for costing an earlier start: it addresses " + "the market's actual bottleneck, it is a fraction of the full capital, and it could earn from the " + "incumbent's own presses before CNX's press hall exists. Section 11 sets out that question."), + + H2("4.3 Stamper preparation"), + P("A raw electroformed shell is not yet a stamper. It is centre-punched to the press spindle, " + "back-finished flat, and trimmed and formed ('coined') to the mould. Sibert Instruments (UK, in " + "this niche since the early 1970s) makes the three machines: the VSP punch, VSF back-finisher and " + "VSC coiner. Estimated USD 60k to 170k, pricing unpublished, bought together with the galvanics " + "line. Concentricity and dimensional checks after each step feed the traceability record."), + + H2("4.4 Pressing"), + P("**What happens.** An extruder melts PVC compound into a 'patty', which is placed with two labels " + "between two stampers in a steam-heated mould. The press closes at about 150 tonnes, the mould is " + "then water-cooled, and the record is ejected and trimmed. A cycle takes about 25 to 30 seconds on " + "an automatic press; on a semi-automatic press an operator handles the patty and the record, which " + "is slower but is exactly what colour, splatter and special editions need."), + P("**The fleet strategy: 50/50.** Half the fleet fully automatic for standard volume, half " + "semi-automatic for effects, special editions and small runs, where an operator working the mould " + "directly is an advantage rather than a cost."), + T(["Machine", "Role", "Basis", "Cost"], [ + ["Newbilt Single 2.1 system (Alsdorf, Germany)", "Launch line: VEX 50 extruder, HRP 12 " + "hydraulic press (~150 t), 12-inch book mould set for 140/180 g, Vario trimmer (7/10-inch " + "upgrade path), label dry oven, shrink wrapper, PVC grinder, label punch, spindles and plates. " + "Hydraulics already sized for a second press.", "Quoted: EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k, ~THB 7.7M) " + "including sea freight and packaging, June 2024, " + "expired; re-quote required with build time and " + "order-book position", "USD 230k to 260k"], + ["Duplex expansion", "Second press and extruder on the same hydraulic aggregate", + "Quoted option", "~USD 115k"], + ["Two fully automatic presses", "Volume production, one operator per four presses. Candidates: " + "Pheenix Alpha AD12 (Sweden, successor of Toolex Alpha, 24 to 26 s cycle, ~140/h, 25 kW, " + "closed platen cooling) or Newbilt Classic 12-inch (28 s cycle, ~128/h, built-in extruder, " + "Siemens PLC with OPC UA, vendor-claimed 95% yield and uptime)", "Estimate: ~USD 340k per " + "press indicative, unverified, " + "plus delivery and commissioning", + "USD 580k to 920k"], + ], widths_mm=[36, 74, 40, 20], font_pt=8.5), + P("**What Newbilt deliberately excludes**, and what will be engineered and sourced in Thailand: a " + "~400 kg/h steam generator at 10 bar / 180 °C with water treatment, and a ~250 kW cooling system. " + "These are the two largest energy systems in the plant and the reason the efficiency architecture " + "in section 5.4 is ours to design."), + P("**Site requirements.** Roughly 200 m² of production floor for the Duplex, 32 kVA connected load, " + "saturated steam, compressed air and cooling circuits, and side rooms for materials, compressor, " + "chiller and finished goods. A press weighs 1,350 kg on under one square metre, so the floor slab " + "must carry several tonnes per square metre and is a building-selection criterion; the floor must " + "be flat, non-slip and solvent-resistant."), + T(["Phase", "Fleet", "Rough output per year"], [ + ["Launch", "1 semi-automatic press, 1 shift", "~90,000 to 135,000 records"], + ["Duplex", "2 semi-automatic presses, 1 to 2 shifts", "~175,000 to 540,000 records"], + ["Mature", "2 semi-automatic + 2 automatic (50/50 fleet), 2 shifts", "~1.0 to 1.5 million " + "records"], + ], widths_mm=[25, 80, 65], + caption="Basis: AD12 ~140 records/h (datasheet); semi-automatic 60 to 80/h assumed; 16 h/day, " + "300 days/yr, 60 to 70% overall equipment effectiveness. Theoretical ceiling of the mature " + "fleet at 100% uptime is 1.9 to 2.1 million."), + P("**On the 60 to 70% effectiveness figure.** Newbilt publishes 95% yield and 95% uptime for its " + "automatic press. We have not adjusted the plan on that basis, deliberately: a vendor's machine " + "uptime excludes stamper and mould changes, colour changeovers, compound lot changes, " + "first-article QC and breaks, which are exactly the losses that dominate a short-run boutique " + "plant. Both press vendors are being asked for the basis of their figures as part of the " + "re-quote. If they hold, they argue for a higher effectiveness on the automatic half only."), + + H2("4.5 Finishing, packaging and fulfilment"), + P("After pressing, records are trimmed inline, labels have been pre-dried in an oven (moisture in a " + "label causes bubbles), and records are sleeved, assembled into jackets, shrink-wrapped and packed. " + "Jackets, sleeves, inserts, J-cards and CD packaging come from **Ploy Printing** (Ploy Karnpim " + "Limited Partnership, Pa Daet, Mueang Chiang Mai), an established print house with offset, " + "digital, risograph, UV inkjet and latex inkjet presses and vinyl packaging production. That " + "keeps a labour-intensive, freight-heavy item within the province, gives the plant a partner who " + "already knows record packaging, and, because Ploy Printing intends to co-invest (section 12), " + "aligns the two businesses on the same schedule and quality. Risograph and UV print also open " + "boutique packaging options (spot colours, special stocks, printed shells and J-cards) that suit " + "the short-run and colour-vinyl market the semi-automatic line serves. Two points matter " + "commercially:"), + B([ + "**Packaging is the path that slips.** Printed jackets need 10 to 20 working days from approved " + "artwork. The metal path and the packaging path run in parallel and converge at assembly; when " + "a label delivers artwork late, jackets become the critical path and every day saved on " + "metalwork is wasted. Artwork deadline is therefore contracted as a fourth approval gate.", + "**The wrong record in the right jacket is the classic error**, and a misprinted barcode is a " + "rejected delivery at the distributor. Each jacket is scanned against the runout matrix code of " + "the record going into it, and every unit's barcode is verified.", + ]), + P("**Fulfilment** covers bulk pallet delivery to labels and distributors, and dropshipping single " + "parcels directly to end customers on behalf of labels and artists with carrier tracking recorded " + "per shipment. Dropshipping fees are charged per parcel and are not in the revenue model."), + + H2("4.6 Materials: PVC compound"), + P("Records are pressed from a vinyl chloride / vinyl acetate copolymer compound, about 150 to 160 g " + "per 12-inch record. The plant runs an 80% virgin / 20% regrind feed: trimmings and rejects go " + "through an in-house grinder and back to the extruder, so scrap is feedstock, not landfill. The " + "current supplier list is European (Netherlands, UK, Italy, France, Germany) with one US option; " + "the preference is a qualified Thai or regional compound if it meets record specifications, " + "which cuts freight, cost and footprint. The incumbent's floor was stacked with sacks marked " + "'Made in Thailand', a lead worth following. Every incoming lot passes the material lab gate in " + "section 5.3 before it is released to a press."), + + H2("4.7 The order, end to end: what a customer is promised"), + P("A defensible lead time is not the sum of process steps: it carries queue and buffer, and it is " + "quoted from the last customer approval, because a plant cannot be held to a clock the customer " + "keeps stopping. The plan's quotable lead times, from test-pressing approval:"), + T(["Order type", "Quoted lead time", "Basis"], [ + ["New title, full service, launch configuration (bridge stampers from the UK)", "10 to 14 " + "weeks", "Stage sum plus the external metal queue plus buffer; at parity with the 10 to 16 " + "weeks reported for EU/US plants, but closer and in the customer's time zone"], + ["New title, full service, mature configuration (cutting and plating in-house)", "7 to 9 " + "weeks", "Removes 13 to 27 days of outsourced metal plus freight"], + ["Customer supplies jackets", "1 to 2 weeks less", "Removes the print path"], + ["Repress from an archived mother, no changes", "2 to 3 weeks", "Pull stamper (1 to 2 days), " + "prep, press, finish; the highest-margin order the plant will take"], + ["Rush slot", "Premium, capped per month", "Only credible with reserved capacity"], + ], widths_mm=[62, 28, 80]), + P("Lead time is a capacity decision, not a process decision. A plant running at 90% quotes 16 weeks " + "with the same equipment that quotes 6 weeks at 50%. Any turnaround promise to the market is a " + "promise to hold spare capacity, and the revenue model in section 9 is built on that basis."), + + H2("4.8 Cassette duplication (new scope)"), + P("**What happens.** A studio master is duplicated onto tape either in real time on a bank of decks, " + "or at high speed on a loop-bin duplicator that copies a running master loop onto reels of blank " + "tape ('pancakes') many times faster than real time. The tape is then loaded into empty cassette " + "shells ('C-0s') by a loader that cuts to length and splices, shells are printed or labelled, " + "J-cards are printed and folded, and the cassette is boxed and shrink-wrapped."), + T(["", "Tier A: real-time bank", "Tier B: professional high-speed line"], [ + ["Equipment", "10 to 20 duplicating decks, a cassette loader, shell printer or label printer, " + "shrink wrapper", "Loop-bin high-speed duplicator (typically refurbished 1980s to 1990s " + "Lyrec, Gauss or similar, or a current Chinese-built unit), 2 to 3 loaders, " + "pad printer for on-shell print, imprinter, shrink wrapper"], + ["Throughput", "~100 to 300 cassettes per day", "~1,000 to 3,000 cassettes per day"], + ["Space", "~30 to 40 m²", "~60 to 80 m², climate-controlled (tape and PVC are both " + "humidity-sensitive)"], + ["Staff", "1, part time", "1 to 2"], + ["Capital", "USD 15k to 40k", "USD 40k to 150k"], + ["Quality", "Adequate for short runs; audio quality is master-limited", "Industry standard; " + "chrome or ferric tape"], + ], widths_mm=[24, 68, 78], + caption="Estimate. The professional cassette equipment market is largely refurbished; new " + "high-speed lines are rare. Prices to be confirmed with two or three vendors."), + P("**Supply chain.** Blank tape pancakes and C-0 shells come from a handful of suppliers worldwide " + "(National Audio Company in the US is the largest tape source; shell moulders exist in China and " + "should be sought in Thailand). Supply risk is real and the plan is to hold stock. **Positioning:** " + "cassettes are a boutique add-on for the same indie customers, with shells in colours that match " + "the record. **Effect on the plan:** schedule-neutral; fits inside the building programme; add " + "the activity to the BOI application; recommended to start at tier A or a small tier B in phase 1."), + + H2("4.9 CD: two very different routes (investor decision)"), + P("'CD manufacturing' can mean two things that differ by two orders of magnitude in capital, and the " + "investor is asked to choose."), + T(["", "Option A: CD-R duplication", "Option B: CD replication"], [ + ["What it is", "Blank recordable discs are burned and printed by robotic duplicators. The " + "result is a CD-R, playable in almost all players, with full-colour on-disc print.", + "Discs are injection-moulded from polycarbonate against a nickel stamper (made by glass " + "mastering and electroforming), metallised, lacquered, and printed. The result is a 'pressed' " + "CD identical to major-label product."], + ["Equipment", "2 to 4 robotic autoloader duplicators with inkjet or thermal print (Rimage, " + "Microboards, Primera or Epson class); packaging printed by Ploy Printing; " + "shrink wrapper", "Laser beam recorder for glass mastering (or outsourced glass masters), " + "electroforming line, one or two injection-moulding lines with inline " + "metalliser, lacquer coater and scanner, screen or offset disc printer, " + "packaging automation, ISO 7/8 clean room"], + ["Throughput", "~200 to 800 discs per day per unit", "~10,000 to 30,000 discs per day per line"], + ["Space", "~20 to 40 m²", "~300 to 600 m² plus clean room; realistically the phase 2 building"], + ["Capital", "USD 15k to 40k", "USD 1.5M to 4.0M (new-build lines); used lines from closed " + "plants can halve that at higher risk"], + ["Staff", "Shared with cassette line", "6 to 10 across shifts, including a process engineer"], + ["Market fit", "Short runs of 50 to 500 for indie releases, merch and promo; same customers as " + "vinyl and cassette", "Volume runs of 1,000+; competes with established replicators in " + "Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia and elsewhere on thin margins"], + ["Regulatory", "No separate BOI activity expected (confirm)", "Separate BOI activity code, " + "must be in the application from " + "the start; larger factory " + "licence scope"], + ["Effect on timeline", "None", "Substantial: a second commissioning programme and a bigger " + "building; would push first CD output well past first vinyl"], + ["Synergy", "Shares packaging, fulfilment, artwork approval, traceability", "Shares the " + "electroforming skill set and the clean-room discipline of the vinyl galvanics room, but not " + "the equipment"], + ], widths_mm=[24, 68, 78], font_pt=8.5, + caption="Estimate throughout. Option B figures are order-of-magnitude and would need a dedicated " + "feasibility study."), + P("**Recommendation.** Include Option A in phase 1: it is cheap, schedule-neutral, and serves the " + "plant's customers. Treat Option B as a separate project with its own market study, because CD " + "replication is a mature, competitive, declining business outside Asia's strongholds and would " + "add USD 1.5M to 4.0M and a second building to a plan whose vinyl economics do not depend on it. " + "If the investor wants Option B, the decision must be taken before the BOI application is filed " + "(section 7), and the phase 2 building should be designed for it. This plan's totals include " + "Option A only; Option B is shown as a separate line."), + ] + return out diff --git a/docs/business-plan/build/content_b.py b/docs/business-plan/build/content_b.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2349e08 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/business-plan/build/content_b.py @@ -0,0 +1,426 @@ +"""Part B: what makes it top-notch (traceability, metrology, QC, efficiency); site and building; BOI.""" +from plan_lib import H1, H2, H3, P, B, N, T, KV, IMG, CALL, PB + + +def blocks(): + return [ + # ------------------------------------------------- 5 top-notch + H1("5. What makes it top-notch: traceability, metrology, QC and efficiency"), + P("A pressing plant makes records. A top-notch plant knows, for every record it has ever made, " + "exactly how it was made, can prove it to the customer, and wastes as little energy, water and " + "material as the physics allows. This section is the heart of the plan, because these four " + "capabilities are what a regional customer cannot buy today and what justifies export-grade " + "pricing. None of it is exotic: the instruments exist, the data interfaces exist, and the " + "engineering is well understood. What is unusual is putting all of it in one plant from the " + "start rather than bolting it on later."), + + H2("5.1 Traceability: every record knows its history"), + P("Every step of production is logged continuously, so that every record is traceable end to end " + "for the customer. This is a fixed requirement, and it is the core specification for the factory " + "software the project will build. The natural identity of a record is **stamper ID + press ID + " + "cycle timestamp + side**, and everything else hangs off that key."), + T(["Stage", "What is recorded"], [ + ["Audio intake", "File received, checksums, versions, who handled it, approval trail"], + ["Mastering", "Session log, engineer, settings, customer approvals"], + ["Cutting", "Lacquer IDs, lathe parameters, stylus used, inspection result, dead-wax matrix " + "scribe"], + ["Galvanics", "Silvering and plating batch IDs, bath chemistry logs, father/mother/stamper " + "genealogy (which stamper came from which mother from which father), or the " + "external supplier and batch if bridged"], + ["Pressing", "Press ID, operator, shift, mould and stamper IDs, per-cycle temperatures, " + "pressures and cycle time, PVC compound lot and virgin/regrind mix, label lot"], + ["Quality control", "Test-pressing approvals, inspection results, reject counts and reasons"], + ["Finishing and packaging", "Trimming, sleeving, carton lot, packaging partner batch"], + ["Fulfilment", "Warehouse location, shipment or dropshipping consignment, carrier tracking per " + "end customer"], + ], widths_mm=[38, 132]), + P("**Principles.** Log at the source: machine data comes from the machine (press PLCs, plating " + "rectifiers, the AD12's remote monitoring), never from manual transcription; manual steps get a " + "simple operator check-in. Batch and genealogy first: every physical artefact (lacquer, father, " + "mother, stamper, press run, box) gets an ID and knows its parents. Environment attached: the " + "plant's temperature, humidity and particulate logs sit on the same timeline, so any production " + "window can be correlated with plant conditions. Immutable and retained: logs are append-only " + "and kept for the life of the customer relationship; stamper genealogy for as long as the archive " + "holds the metal."), + P("**Identity travels with the product.** The matrix code scribed into the lacquer's dead wax " + "propagates through father, mother and stamper to every pressed record. A small angular fiducial " + "scribed beside it makes each part's rotation camera-readable at any stage, and lets the packing " + "station read the code on a finished record and match it to the jacket barcode. Nickel parts " + "additionally get a laser-marked serial on the back, as the optical-disc industry marked its " + "stampers; lacquers are never lasered (nitrocellulose is flammable) and records are never lasered " + "(burning PVC releases hydrochloric acid)."), + CALL("Why this is a product feature, not an internal file", [ + "**Customers see their order.** A per-order portal or report covers the full chain above, " + "without exposing other customers' data. Labels ask about pre-release security and provenance " + "before they send masters; this answers both.", + "**A complaint resolves backwards.** One noisy record resolves to its stamper, press, cycle, " + "operator, compound lot and packaging lot, and from the stamper back through mother and father " + "to the lacquer and the approved master. Root cause takes minutes, not a week of guessing.", + "**Stampers retire on data.** Audio scores trending down against a stamper's play count become " + "an automatic retirement signal instead of a customer complaint.", + "**Machine data access is a purchasing condition.** Newbilt, Pheenix Alpha and Digital Matrix " + "are asked which PLC interfaces they expose before a purchase order is signed. That question " + "is free now and expensive later.", + ]), + P("**Cost and build.** The traceability and factory software is estimated at USD 60k to 170k and " + "is a development project, not a purchase; no vendor sells a turnkey version. Version 1 (intake, " + "batch genealogy, press telemetry capture) is built during commissioning so the first test " + "pressings are already in the system. The project repository is the eventual home of this " + "software. Open design work: the data model across all stages, retention and PDPA handling for " + "operator-linked records, and whether test-pressing approval workflows live in the same system " + "from day one."), + + H2("5.2 Metrology: measuring the metal before it presses a single record"), + P("A stamper is a 0.2 to 0.3 mm nickel disc carrying a spiral ridge 40 to 80 microns wide and about " + "28 microns high, 200 to 350 turns per inch. Industry practice, even at respected stamper houses, " + "is to check its thickness with a hand micrometer at ten points on sacrificial blanks, with " + "nothing logged. A top-notch plant measures the metal without contact, per serial, and makes an " + "accept or reject decision on data before the next plating generation or the press mounting."), + T(["Instrument", "What it measures", "How it is used"], [ + ["3D laser confocal microscope (Keyence VK-X class)", "Groove cross-section, wall roughness, " + "micro-defects; 20 nm vertical, ~120 nm lateral resolution, non-contact", "Sampled radial " + "zones (lead-in, outer, mid, inner) on fathers, mothers and stampers; scanning the full spiral " + "is not feasible and not needed. The optical-disc industry verified its nickel stampers with " + "this instrument class, so the technique transfers directly"], + ["Wide-area optical profiler (Keyence VR-6000 class)", "Form, flatness, gross defects; " + "0.1 micron height resolution, ~1 s per field, HDR mode for mirror-bright nickel", + "Fast whole-part mapping of every part"], + ["XRF thickness gauge (Fischer or Bowman class)", "Nickel deposit thickness, non-destructive", + "Per serial, read on the outer land zones; replaces the ten-point micrometer. Target total " + "thickness variation 10 to 20 microns"], + ["Stylus profilometer", "Traceable reference", "Calibration of the optical instruments"], + ["Inline machine vision", "Cosmetic screening", "100% of parts, fast"], + ], widths_mm=[42, 58, 70], font_pt=8.5), + P("Integration is real but not turnkey: the instruments export data and support scripting, and " + "the inline sensors speak standard industrial protocols, but there is no off-the-shelf connector " + "to a factory database. A light middleware service stamps each measurement with the part serial " + "and batch ID and writes it to the genealogy record. Budget for the full stack (metrology plus " + "the record-QC layers below, plus the audio station) is USD 350k to 810k, phaseable; a basic " + "tier (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening) runs from launch."), + + H2("5.3 Quality control: three layers for every record, one gate for every material"), + P("Full automated audio checking of every record is physically impossible: a 12-inch record plays " + "for about 40 minutes and a press makes a new one every 25 to 30 seconds, so one press outruns " + "roughly 80 to 95 full-time listening stations. No playback-QC robot exists anywhere. The credible " + "maximum-automation design is layered, and it should be described to customers exactly as it is: " + "100% optical plus per-cycle telemetry plus sampled audio, with human ears kept in the loop for " + "test-pressing approval."), + T(["Layer", "What", "Catches", "Status"], [ + ["1. 100% inline optical inspection", "Darkfield line-scan cameras at the press unloader " + "inspect every record at line speed", "Non-fill (dull patches where PVC did not fill the " + "stamper), stitching and flow lines, warp, off-centre spindle holes, surface debris, wrong or " + "off-centre labels. Non-fill and stitching correlate with audible defects, so this is a strong " + "proxy for audio quality without playing the record", "Custom integration of general machine " + "vision (Keyence or Cognex class); no " + "vinyl-specific product exists; CNX " + "would be an early adopter"], + ["2. Press telemetry, every cycle", "Nozzle pressure, mould temperatures, cycle time, cake " + "weight, yields and drift alerts streamed from the press PLC", "Process drift before it " + "becomes a defect; the record-level context for every other check", "Proven and deployed " + "in the industry " + "(Viryl ADAPT model); " + "AD12 and Newbilt " + "Classic expose the " + "data"], + ["3. Automated audio comparison, sampled", "A needle-drop capture station with automated " + "analysis: spectral-envelope comparison against the source master, click and pop counting, " + "noise floor from lead-in silence, channel balance; numeric score and pass/fail to the " + "database", "Wrong master cut into good-looking grooves, EQ and mastering errors, speed and " + "pitch problems; the things no camera can see", "Buildable from proven parts " + "(Stamper Discs' Fonograph " + "approach, iZotope-class " + "algorithms); first-of-kind as a " + "whole"], + ], widths_mm=[32, 48, 55, 35], font_pt=8.5), + P("**Sampling rule for layer 3:** every test pressing and first-off per stamper, plus pulled " + "samples densifying as the stamper ages (a stamper lasts roughly 1,000 to 2,000 records; the " + "industry rule of thumb is a spot-play around every 50th)."), + H3("The materials lab"), + P("Every incoming compound lot passes a gate before it reaches a press, and its lot ID follows every " + "record pressed from it. Per lot, in-house from day one, on benchtop instruments with data " + "export: certificate of analysis against the agreed specification, moisture (the most common " + "cause of noisy surfaces), heat stability (PVC degradation releases hydrochloric acid and shows as " + "discoloration and noise), density, colour and gloss, granulate size and dust. New lots, and " + "especially new suppliers, are released only by test pressing. As the lab matures, torque " + "rheometry, DSC and FTIR are added; supplier qualification uses an external lab for K-value, " + "stabiliser identification (legacy lead rejected) and heavy-metals compliance for export. The " + "in-house regrind stream has its own contamination gate. This protocol is how Thai and regional " + "compounds are qualified against the European references."), + H3("Packaging QC"), + P("Incoming cartons and sleeves are checked per delivery: dimensions (records must fit without " + "force; spine width per title), board grammage, print quality against the customer-approved " + "proof (spectrophotometer Delta E for colour-critical jobs), lamination and seam strength, inner " + "sleeve scuff risk. At assembly, the runout matrix code is scanned against the jacket barcode and " + "every unit's barcode is verified. Results go back to Ploy Printing per packaging lot, which is " + "the practical advantage of a partner ten kilometres away over a supplier ten thousand."), + + H2("5.4 Efficiency: recover before you generate"), + P("The pressing machinery is a modest electrical load (32 kVA connected for a full semi-automatic " + "line). The real energy demand sits in the utilities around it: the steam generator, the 250 kW " + "cooling system, and, in a tropical climate, the whole-plant air conditioning. Because Newbilt " + "excludes steam and cooling from its scope, these systems are ours to design, and the plan's " + "architecture is built on one observation: the steam's job is to heat the moulds and the cooling " + "water's job is to remove that same heat again. Roughly 98% of the cooling load is heat that the " + "steam put into the moulds, and the press cooling return leaves at about 60 °C. That warm return " + "is a premium heat source, and the plant reuses it before generating anything new."), + T(["Measure", "What it does", "Effect"], [ + ["Feedwater heat recovery", "A water-to-water heat pump lifts the 60 °C press cooling return " + "into boiler feedwater at 90 to 95 °C", "Each kWh does double duty: cuts the boiler's work " + "and removes load from the chiller. With condensate " + "return, saves roughly 10 to 15% of steam energy and " + "shrinks the cooling system"], + ["Condensate return", "Steam condensate goes back to the treated feedwater cycle", "80% " + "return assumed; less water, less treatment, less fuel"], + ["Waste heat for low-grade consumers", "The label dry oven and the air conditioning's " + "dehumidification reheat run on recovered press heat", "Displaces fresh electricity in two " + "continuous loads"], + ["Solar-thermal feedwater preheat", "Flat-plate or evacuated-tube collectors reach 60 to 90 °C " + "trivially in the Thai sun", "Cheap, proven, stackable with the heat pump"], + ["Steam accumulator", "Presses draw steam in bursts; an accumulator (a Newbilt option) lets a " + "smaller boiler ride the peaks", "Smaller boiler, steadier firing"], + ["Closed-loop cooling", "Chiller or hybrid tower with plate heat exchanger; no open 'dirty " + "water' loop as in the reference schematic", "No process water discharged; the largest " + "water draw (tower evaporation) shrinks with " + "every kW the heat pump removes"], + ["Regrind loop", "In-house grinder returns trimmings and rejects to the extruder at 20% of " + "the feed", "Scrap is feedstock, not landfill; ~20% less virgin compound"], + ["One operator per four automatic presses", "Automatic patty, label and cooling-plate " + "handling", "Labour per record on the automatic half is a fraction of the semi-automatic " + "line's"], + ], widths_mm=[38, 68, 64], font_pt=8.5), + P("Two things were checked and ruled out: heat pumps cannot make the final 10 bar / 180 °C steam " + "(commercial units top out around 120 to 165 °C, and core utility reliability is the wrong place " + "to pioneer), and ground-source heat exchange does not work in Thailand (the ground sits at " + "28 to 30 °C, too cold for process heat and warmer than the cooling loop wants). The boiler only " + "does the final lift, from already-hot feedwater."), + H3("Renewable energy"), + KV([ + ["Rooftop PV, phase 1", "~247 kWp on the 1,523 m² monopitch roof (425 modules of the current " + "580 W class) plus ~40 kWp on the parking canopies, ~290 kWp total; " + "expected yield ~335 to 360 MWh/yr from the roof, ~25 to 35% of mature " + "two-shift consumption"], + ["Rooftop PV, with phase 2 building", "~498 kWp across both roofs, which removes the need for " + "ground-mount solar"], + ["Battery", "271 kWh Gobel Power LiFePO4 rack (15 stacked 18 kWh packs, 8,000+ cycles), " + "USD 40k to 58k listed, 50 to 60 day lead. Peak shaving and ride-through, roughly " + "two to three hours of the chiller's draw, not off-grid autonomy"], + ["Inverters", "Multiple Deye three-phase hybrid units (30 to 80 kW class), Thai distribution " + "via Solar Nicolo; Deye is a supported protocol on the Gobel battery management"], + ["Roof design", "Monopitch at 10° falling toward ESE puts the whole roof on one plane at ~98% " + "of ideal yield; at this latitude orientation barely matters (under 2% " + "across a wide azimuth swing) and the building stays aligned with the plot. " + "10° rather than shallower so the rains self-clean burning-season dust"], + ["Open checks", "Battery rack voltage vs the chosen Deye model's window; Gobel safety " + "certifications (not published); EPC warranty on a mixed-vendor DC bus; " + "confirm yield against PVGIS before committing"], + ]), + H3("Steam: the open engineering choice"), + P("There is no natural gas pipeline in Northern Thailand, so gas means a bulk LPG tank on site and " + "diesel means a fuel tank with price exposure. The plan keeps two fossil-free routes open. An " + "**electric boiler** (THB 2.5M to 4.0M installed, Miura or Bangkok Industrial Boilers class) is " + "fast, clean to permit, and maximises the solar share, at a ~300 kW draw that pushes the grid " + "connection toward 750 kVA. A **biomass boiler** (THB 4M to 7M, Getabec, Thai-fabricated) burns " + "wood chips, longan orchard prunings (Lamphun is Thailand's longan heartland and prunings are a " + "traded fuel), corn cobs and rice husk, roughly 350 to 400 tonnes a year at maturity; it makes " + "the steam genuinely renewable at the cost of fuel logistics, ash handling and an emissions " + "stack. The team's own 60 rai of forestry-classified land could supply 80 to 135 tonnes a year " + "as short-rotation coppice, most of early operations' need, but only after its legal " + "classification is verified. The staged path is the working assumption: **start electric, " + "plant the coppice now, add biomass at the automatic-line expansion** when demand and fuel supply " + "have both matured. The building already has a boiler hall and a fuel store in its utility yard."), + H3("Water"), + P("Estimated demand at mature two-shift operation is about 15 m³ per day, called 20 with margin: " + "cooling tower evaporation and blowdown (over half), boiler makeup, galvanics rinse after " + "recycling, and domestic use for 25 staff. Source is open (PWA mains or a licensed well) and " + "drives part of the utilities budget. Storage is a dedicated ~200 m³ fire reserve plus a ~50 m³ " + "raw-water tank feeding a softener or RO skid. **No process water is discharged:** cooling is a " + "closed loop, condensate is returned, galvanics rinse water goes through closed-loop treatment " + "and metal recovery (an evaporator, THB 3M to 8M, with the galvanics line), and solvents are " + "contained and disposed of as controlled waste. This is a fixed design requirement, not an " + "aspiration to be traded away during engineering."), + H3("Climate control as a product"), + P("The whole plant runs under continuous control: 20 to 26 °C, 35 to 60% relative humidity, and " + "particulate filtration (F7 to F9 general, HEPA with positive pressure in the cutting room and " + "galvanics clean room), with sensors logging in every zone. Moisture in PVC compound causes " + "bubbles, non-fill and surface defects and drives cooling rate, hence flatness and warp; airborne " + "particulate embeds in the record surface and is the classic source of clicks and pops. Northern " + "Thailand's burning season (February to April) brings some of the world's worst PM2.5 episodes, " + "so a plant without filtration would press different records in March than in September. This " + "is the plant's largest utility line (THB 7.5M to 15M for ~1,500 m², plus THB 1.2M to 3.4M for " + "the two clean zones) and it is treated here as part of the product, not as overhead. The 35% " + "humidity floor is aggressive for the tropics and drives desiccant cost; if 45% proves " + "acceptable, the cost drops materially, and that question is on the RFQ list."), + CALL("Efficiency in one paragraph, for the investor", "Heat is recovered from the presses before " + "any fuel is burned; a quarter to a third of electricity comes from the roof at phase 1 and " + "up to half with the second building; a battery shaves the peaks; cooling water is never " + "discharged; a fifth of the plastic is reclaimed; and one operator runs four automatic presses. " + "The same choices cut the energy line in the cost model toward its low end, hedge Thai tariff " + "rises, and convert into BOI tax value (section 7). They also make the plant's sustainability " + "story true rather than claimed, which matters to the labels it sells to."), + + # -------------------------------------------- 6 site and building + H1("6. Site and building"), + H2("6.1 Land: a long lease in Lamphun"), + P("The project's site strategy has changed from purchase to **long-term lease of raw land**, on " + "which the purpose-built plant is still constructed. This lowers upfront capital by roughly " + "USD 0.4M to 1.0M (THB 12M to 32M at the 2 to 4 million THB per rai the plan carried for " + "purchase), removes land from the balance sheet, and matches how most foreign-invested " + "manufacturing in Thailand actually holds its site. It brings its own conditions, which Thai " + "counsel will resolve before signature:"), + B([ + "**Term and registration.** A lease over three years must be registered at the Land Office to " + "be enforceable; the ordinary maximum is 30 years, and for industrial and commercial use the " + "Hire of Immovable Property for Commerce and Industry Act allows up to 50 years for qualifying " + "projects. The plan assumes a registered 30-year lease with a contractual renewal option, and " + "will test the 50-year route with counsel.", + "**Building ownership.** The lease must state clearly that the buildings, foundations, tanks " + "and fixed plant belong to the company for the term, what happens to them at expiry, and that " + "the company may mortgage or assign them. Without this, financing the building is difficult.", + "**Lessor's title and encumbrances.** A clean Chanote title, no mortgage that could foreclose " + "over the tenant, and consent from any co-owners. A lease of Sor Por Kor or forestry-classified " + "land is not acceptable.", + "**Zoning and factory permission.** The candidate parcel in Mueang Chi, Lamphun is agricultural " + "land whose zoning for factory use is unverified; this gates everything and is the cheapest " + "schedule insurance available. The Northern Region Industrial Estate in Lamphun (IEAT) is the " + "fallback: leased plots, licensing handled by the estate, and shared central effluent treatment " + "that eases the galvanics permitting.", + "**BOI interaction.** BOI's land-ownership privilege for foreign-held promoted companies is " + "simply not used; leasing does not affect the promotion.", + "**Rent.** Not yet negotiated. The plan carries THB 0.3M to 1.0M per year (USD 9k to 30k) as " + "an estimate for 5 to 8 rai of agricultural land converted to industrial use in the Lamphun " + "valley; IEAT plots run higher. The negotiated figure replaces this.", + ]), + P("Land requirements are unchanged: ~4 rai minimum, 6 to 8 rai comfortable with expansion, truck " + "access and turning, parking, the outdoor cooling tower, a separated battery enclosure, and a " + "500 to 1,000 kVA medium-voltage connection from PEA."), + + H2("6.2 The building"), + IMG("renders/site-plan.png", 120, "Figure 2. Site plan on the candidate Mueang Chi parcel: phase 1 " + "main building, detached utility yard, fire and raw water " + "tanks, parking canopies, and the phase 2 building footprint. " + "Source: parametric model, project repository."), + P("The phase 1 building is a single-storey steel portal frame of **60 × 25 m (1,500 m²)** with a " + "10° monopitch roof carrying the PV array, low eave 7.0 m, high side ~11.4 m. The floor is a " + "200 mm slab rated 30 kN/m² (3 t/m², the standard industrial class and what the presses and " + "racking need) raised 1.2 m above ground so that two sealed loading docks work at trailer height " + "and the docked trailer acts as the airlock. The envelope is insulated PIR sandwich panel " + "(100 mm roof, 75 mm walls) on a 2.5 m masonry dado, taped and gasketed, because the building is " + "air-conditioned and must be airtight against smoke-season particulate; mineral-wool panels " + "where fire compartmentation (EI 60 or 120) or acoustics require them."), + T(["Zone", "Area"], [ + ["Semi-automatic press hall (Newbilt Duplex specification)", "~200 m²"], + ["Automatic press zone", "~100 to 150 m²"], + ["Galvanics clean room, water treatment, chemical storage", "~80 to 150 m²"], + ["Mastering and cutting room", "~40 to 60 m²"], + ["Stamper preparation", "~30 m²"], + ["Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication (new)", "~60 to 100 m²"], + ["Packaging, assembly and finished-goods warehouse", "~300 to 500 m²"], + ["Utility rooms inside (compressor, electrical, IT)", "~50 to 100 m²"], + ["Offices, QC and listening room, archive, entrance", "~150 to 200 m²"], + ["Circulation, walls, miscellaneous", "~150 to 250 m²"], + ["**Total under roof**", "**~1,200 to 1,700 m²**, against 1,500 m² built"], + ], widths_mm=[110, 60], + caption="The boiler hall (66 m²), biomass fuel store (42 m²), chiller room (60 m²) and cooling " + "tower pad sit in a detached utility yard, which frees the main floor for production and " + "keeps the boiler in its own room as Thai regulations require."), + P("Site works include a ~444 m perimeter wall, one 10 m sliding gate with a guard house, 4,387 m² " + "of paving in two classes (heavy-duty for trucks, general for parking and yard), roofed parking " + "for 10 cars and 30 scooters with ~40 kWp of PV on the canopies, foundations for a 9 m fire " + "water tank and a 5 m raw-water tank, a fire ring main and hydrants, stormwater drainage " + "(66% of the plot becomes sealed, so a detention pond may be required for the permit), and " + "domestic sanitation."), + P("**A second building is expansion, not a gap.** The whole zone table fits inside the phase 1 " + "building. A 45 × 38 m (1,710 m²) phase 2 building fits the plot's narrowing southern end with a " + "two-bay sawtooth roof carrying ~251 kWp, a 20 m yard between the two for fire separation and " + "shared loading; total coverage stays at 39% of the deed area. It is where a CD replication line " + "would go if that option is chosen (section 4.9), or where finished goods move to free production " + "floor."), + H3("What the building costs, and what is not known"), + P("Building and civil works are estimated at **USD 650k to 1.1M** (THB 21M to 36M) at 12,000 to " + "20,000 THB/m² for Thai pre-engineered steel construction to the insulated-panel specification, " + "plus ~20% site works. A budget-level price request with quantities from the parametric model is " + "ready to send to contractors. The single largest unknown is the ground: the parcel is likely " + "soft former paddy, and a piled slab can add several hundred to 1,000+ THB/m² across the " + "building, 4,387 m² of paving and a 1,711 m³ fill platform. A soil boring test (THB 30k to 50k) " + "comes before any real number and is in the phase 0 budget."), + IMG("renders/aerial-southwest.png", 150, "Figure 3. Massing render from the south-west: phase 1 " + "building with rooftop PV, utility yard, tanks and parking " + "canopies. Source: parametric model."), + + H2("6.3 Safety, security and the irreplaceable"), + P("Worker safety is a founding priority on equal footing with the environmental commitments. The " + "pressing line combines hydraulics at ~180 bar, saturated steam at 10 bar / 180 °C and hot PVC; " + "the galvanics room handles silver nitrate and nickel salts. The plan provides vendor-led " + "commissioning training extending into an in-house program, mandatory PPE per area, controlled " + "access and decontamination for the clean rooms, eyewash and emergency shower at the plating " + "line, a licensed boiler operator, and fume-extraction interlocks (no extraction, no plating)."), + P("Physical security is zoned: production, galvanics, chemical storage, the master and stamper " + "archive, IT, and shipping each get badge or biometric access with logs; CCTV at entrances, " + "perimeter, dock, production, chemicals and archive under a PDPA-compliant retention policy. Two " + "things are irreplaceable and get their own protection: **the metal archive** (a destroyed father " + "means re-cutting and re-plating a release; fire-rated room, climate control, access logging, " + "clean-agent gas suppression because sprinkler water would destroy lacquers and paper and corrode " + "the metal) and **client audio** (pre-release music is a leak target; isolated encrypted storage, " + "need-to-know access, and a written policy the sales team can show labels)."), + P("Fire suppression is zoned, not full-building gas: clean agent only in small sealed high-value " + "rooms (archive, IT, switchrooms, control cabinets), water mist or sprinklers in production and " + "the carton-heavy warehouse, detection and containment rather than suppression for the battery " + "enclosure. The site carries its own ~200 m³ fire reserve and pump set because mains flow in " + "Mueang Chi cannot be assumed. The property insurer is involved before the design is fixed."), + + # ----------------------------------------------------- 7 BOI + H1("7. Regulatory: BOI promotion and licences"), + P("The project will apply for promotion by the Thailand Board of Investment. In BOI terms vinyl " + "pressing is basic plastic consumer-goods manufacturing (incentive Group B): no corporate income " + "tax holiday on the core activity, but the full non-tax package and machinery duty exemption. The " + "tax value is engineered on top through measures where this project happens to be strong, so the " + "application is pitched on solar, automation and technology content, not on pressing plastic " + "discs."), + T(["What BOI gives", "Why it matters here"], [ + ["Machinery import duty exemption", "Almost the entire equipment list is imported (Germany, " + "Sweden, USA, UK, Japan). Significant across every equipment block."], + ["100% foreign ownership and land privileges", "Overrides Foreign Business Act restrictions " + "for the promoted activity. Land ownership privilege is unused under the lease strategy."], + ["Visas and work permits via One Stop Service", "Foreign commissioning engineers and the " + "technical consultant, without the four-Thai-employees-per-permit rule."], + ["Raw material duty relief", "Exemption for export production; up to 90% reduction for " + "domestic sales. Relevant for imported PVC compound until a Thai source is qualified."], + ["Solar and battery measure (alternative-energy, 2025)", "CIT exemption based on the solar " + "investment; PV modules, inverters, battery and mounting explicitly eligible. The planned " + "installation converts directly into tax-exemption headroom."], + ["Smart and Sustainable Industry upgrade measure", "Rewards automation, smart machinery and " + "energy efficiency, typically 3 years of CIT exemption capped around 50% of the qualifying " + "spend. The automatic presses, inline inspection, metrology and heat recovery are the natural " + "fit."], + ["R&D merit", "At least 1% of revenue in Thai R&D adds 1 to 3 exemption years. Galvanics " + "process development, recycled-PVC work and the audio-QC system could be framed as " + "qualifying development."], + ], widths_mm=[58, 112]), + P("**Requirements:** minimum THB 1M investment excluding land and working capital (cleared by the " + "first press line alone); debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1 for the life of the privileges, which " + "shapes the financing mix; modern machinery and process; progress reporting. BOI promotion does " + "not replace the factory licence (Ror.Ngor. 4), boiler registration, hazardous-substance " + "registration for the plating chemistry, or wastewater permitting. The galvanics effluent is the " + "most likely regulatory friction point regardless of BOI, which is one argument for the " + "industrial estate's shared treatment."), + P("**Process:** file via the e-Investment system and present at an analyst meeting; decision in " + "about 40 working days for projects under THB 200M, roughly 4 to 6 months end to end to the " + "certificate; incorporate the company under it; import machinery within a window commonly 30 " + "months from issuance; reach full operation by about 36 months. The Northern Economic Corridor " + "(Chiang Mai, Lamphun, Lampang) is promoted as a creative-economy base, which a music " + "manufacturing story fits; current area add-ons must be confirmed with BOI directly."), + CALL("Two things to settle before filing", [ + "**Scope.** Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication should be in the application from the " + "start. CD replication is a separate activity code and cannot be added casually afterwards; " + "the investor's decision on section 4.9 is needed before the filing date.", + "**Sequencing.** The plan's rule is that no machinery purchase order precedes the certificate, " + "because duty exemption is not retroactive. But the exemption attaches at importation, not " + "at contract signature. If a press can be ordered with a deposit while the application is in " + "review, provided it clears customs after issuance, the launch pulls forward by 6 to 9 " + "months. This is the first question for the BOI consultant and the only item in the plan " + "worth half a year.", + ]), + P("Keep any future label, content or retail arm in a separate entity: media and service activities " + "carry different, sometimes Thai-ownership, conditions and would muddy a clean manufacturing " + "application. Poy Records as a label brand is therefore a separate question from the plant."), + ] diff --git a/docs/business-plan/build/content_c.py b/docs/business-plan/build/content_c.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1f09393 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/business-plan/build/content_c.py @@ -0,0 +1,549 @@ +"""Part C: investment, revenue and operating model, timeline, phasing, team and ownership, risks, next steps.""" +from plan_lib import H1, H2, H3, P, B, N, T, KV, IMG, CALL, PB + + +def blocks(): + return [ + # ------------------------------------------------- 8 investment + H1("8. Investment"), + P("Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked 'estimate' have no " + "vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or researched ranges. Treat all figures as " + "budgetary with a wide margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until requests for " + "quotation replace them. Land is now a lease and is removed from capital; cassette and CD-R " + "duplication are added."), + H2("8.1 Full vision, all blocks"), + T(["Block", "USD", "THB", "Basis"], [ + ["Newbilt semi-automatic line, full Duplex", "350k to 370k", "11.5M to 12.2M", "Quoted: 2024 " + "offer EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) plus quoted second press and extruder ~USD 115k; expired, " + "re-quote required"], + ["Two fully automatic presses", "580k to 920k", "19.1M to 30.5M", "Estimate: ~USD 340k per " + "press indicative, unverified, plus delivery and commissioning"], + ["Galvanics line (Digital Matrix)", "320k to 650k", "10.7M to 21.4M", "Estimate: six-figure " + "turnkey inference from vendor research"], + ["Zero-discharge water treatment", "90k to 240k", "3.0M to 8.0M", "Researched: utilities " + "option row"], + ["Stamper preparation (Sibert)", "60k to 170k", "1.9M to 5.7M", "Estimate, pricing unpublished"], + ["Mastering and cutting room", "290k to 580k", "9.6M to 19.1M", "Estimate, bespoke market"], + ["Metrology and QC stack", "350k to 810k", "11.5M to 26.7M", "Estimate, phaseable"], + ["Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, racking baseline", "730k to 1,270k", "24.0M to 41.6M", + "Researched: Thai supplier ranges, THB-native, plus or minus 30%"], + ["Building ~1,500 m² plus civil and site works", "650k to 1,100k", "21.4M to 36.2M", + "Estimate at 12,000 to 20,000 THB/m² plus ~20% site works; RFQ ready"], + ["Land", "0 (leased)", "0", "Was 360k to 970k for purchase; rent moves to operating cost"], + ["Cassette duplication line", "40k to 150k", "1.3M to 5.0M", "Estimate, section 4.8"], + ["CD-R duplication", "15k to 40k", "0.5M to 1.3M", "Estimate, section 4.9 option A"], + ["Traceability and factory software", "60k to 170k", "1.9M to 5.7M", "Estimate, development " + "project"], + ["Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt)", "120k to 230k", "3.8M to 7.6M", "Estimate"], + ["Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit", "135k to 290k", "4.5M to 9.6M", + "Estimate; includes lease deposit and first-year rent"], + ["Subtotal", "~3.8M to 7.0M", "~125M to 231M", ""], + ["Contingency 15%", "~0.6M to 1.0M", "~19M to 35M", ""], + ["**Total, full vision**", "**~4.4M to 8.0M**", "**~144M to 264M**", "Before the lease " + "decision: 4.7M to 8.9M"], + ["Not included: CD replication (option B)", "1.5M to 4.0M", "50M to 132M", "Separate " + "decision, separate feasibility study, phase 2 building"], + ["Not included: phase 2 building", "~750k to 1,250k", "~25M to 41M", "Same THB/m² basis on " + "1,710 m²; expansion " + "beyond the current " + "programme"], + ], widths_mm=[52, 30, 30, 58], font_pt=8.5), + + H2("8.2 Phase 1: what launch actually costs"), + P("The launch configuration is far smaller than the full vision, and it is the number the " + "investor is asked to commit to after the gates clear. It buys a purpose-built, climate-controlled " + "plant with one semi-automatic press line, bridge stampers from the UK, basic QC, first-version " + "traceability, the rooftop solar array and battery, and the cassette and CD-R lines."), + T(["Block", "USD low", "USD high", "Note"], [ + ["Phase 0: consultants, legal, soil test, trade show, re-quotes", "40k", "80k", "Section 14"], + ["Newbilt Single 2.1 system incl. freight", "230k", "260k", "Re-quote drift on the 2024 EUR " + "figure"], + ["Building, civil and site works", "650k", "1,100k", "Soil result is the main variable"], + ["Utilities: electric steam, compressed air, chiller, water treatment, racking, whole-plant " + "HVAC, ~290 kWp PV, 271 kWh battery", "690k", "1,160k", "Clean-room adder deferred to the " + "galvanics phase"], + ["Basic QC, PVC lab, traceability v1", "70k", "180k", "Microscope, benchtop lab, sampled " + "listening, software v1"], + ["Cassette duplication and CD-R lines", "60k", "190k", "Tier A or small tier B cassette"], + ["Freight, installation, commissioning beyond Newbilt's 5 days, training", "40k", "100k", + "Newbilt service EUR 84/h plus travel"], + ["Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent", "130k", "290k", ""], + ["Subtotal", "~1.9M", "~3.4M", ""], + ["Contingency 15%", "~0.3M", "~0.5M", ""], + ["**Phase 1 total**", "**~2.2M**", "**~3.9M**", "**~THB 73M to 128M**"], + ], widths_mm=[80, 22, 22, 46], font_pt=8.5), + P("Galvanics, the automatic presses, the mastering room, the full metrology stack and the biomass " + "boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions; the remainder between phase 1 and " + "the full vision is roughly USD 2.2M to 4.1M. The planning already supports the split: the " + "Duplex-ready hydraulics, the bridge role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass " + "steam path and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for exactly this reason."), + + H2("8.3 Tranches"), + P("Phase 1 capital is released against milestones rather than up front, so that each tranche is " + "spent only once the previous gate has cleared:"), + T(["Tranche", "Trigger", "Covers", "Approx. share"], [ + ["0", "Now", "Phase 0 work", "2 to 3%"], + ["1", "BOI certificate issued; lease signed; zoning and soil confirmed; pricing validated", + "Press order deposit, building design and permit, long-lead utility orders", "25 to 30%"], + ["2", "Building permit; press build confirmed", "Construction, utilities, solar", "40 to 45%"], + ["3", "Building watertight; machinery shipped", "Fit-out, HVAC commissioning, QC and software, " + "cassette and CD-R lines, hiring", "15 to 20%"], + ["4", "Commissioning complete", "Working capital, stock, first stamper orders", "8 to 10%"], + ], widths_mm=[16, 62, 66, 26]), + + H2("8.4 What moves the number"), + B([ + "**BOI** machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment blocks, and the solar " + "and automation spend converts into tax-exemption headroom; the application precedes every " + "purchase order.", + "**The ground.** Soft paddy soil under the building, paving and fill platform is the single " + "largest cost variable in the building package, and the cheapest to resolve.", + "**Biggest uncertainty bands:** metrology (partly a choice of ambition), the mastering room " + "(bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the automatic presses (one unverified price point), " + "the galvanics line, and every cassette and CD figure.", + "**Every band narrows only with quotes.** The supplier map in the project repository lists who " + "to ask, and the re-quotes are phase 0 work.", + ]), + H2("8.5 Currency exposure"), + P("Revenue will be mostly USD and EUR from export customers; the cost base is mostly THB; the " + "largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged against an order that will not " + "be placed for roughly a year. A 10% move in EUR/THB between now and the Newbilt order is worth " + "USD 25k to 35k on that line alone. Operationally, roughly two-thirds of direct cost (labour, " + "energy, cartons, maintenance) is THB, so a 10% baht appreciation takes 0.09 to 0.17 USD off the " + "gross margin per record without any operational change. Two mitigations are planned: ask every " + "re-quote to state its currency and validity period, and decide early whether to quote regional " + "customers in THB. Hedging the press order once the BOI timeline is known is a decision for the " + "investor."), + + # ------------------------------------- 9 revenue and operating model + H1("9. Revenue and operating model"), + P("A first-pass economic model at mature capacity. Most numbers are estimates from industry pricing " + "norms and the project's own cost research; the point is the shape of the economics and which " + "levers matter, not precision. The pricing assumptions are deliberately held at the conservative " + "Western export benchmark even though the one set of Thai market data (section 3.3) says " + "domestic prices are several times higher: re-basing the whole model on one supplier's price " + "list in a market with one supplier would be worse than leaving it low."), + H2("9.1 Pricing assumptions"), + B([ + "**Blended pressing price: USD 3.50 to 4.60 per record** (THB 115 to 150), across run sizes " + "and the standard/colour mix, covering pressing, labels, inner sleeve and assembly into the " + "jacket; deluxe packaging passed through at cost plus margin. Western plants charge roughly " + "USD 2.90 to 5.80 for standard black at volume, with premiums of 0.60 to 1.70 for colour and " + "splatter, 180 g and small runs.", + "**Per-title services: USD 580 to 1,730 per title** (THB 19k to 57k) for mastering, cutting, " + "stampers and test pressings, at roughly 300 to 600 titles a year at full capacity. Observed " + "Thai rates suggest this is understated by up to three to four times for a full album, but " + "mastering is labour-bound (an engineer masters perhaps two to four songs a day) and the plan " + "staffs one to two engineers, which caps this line.", + "**Cassettes and CD-Rs** are add-on lines, not in the totals: illustratively 20k to 60k " + "cassettes a year at USD 2.50 to 4.00 (USD 50k to 240k) and 10k to 40k CD-Rs at USD 1.50 to " + "3.00 (USD 15k to 120k). Estimates with no market data behind them yet.", + "**Dropshipping fees** per parcel are on top and not modelled.", + ]), + H2("9.2 Revenue at full capacity"), + T(["Scenario", "Records/yr", "Pressing revenue", "Title services", "Total USD", "Total THB"], [ + ["Mature, low", "1.0M", "~3.5M", "~0.17M", "**~3.7M/yr**", "**~122M/yr**"], + ["Mature, high", "1.5M", "~6.1M", "~0.69M", "**~6.8M/yr**", "**~224M/yr**"], + ], widths_mm=[26, 22, 30, 28, 32, 32], + caption="Low: 1.0M × USD 3.50 plus 300 titles × 580. High: 1.5M × 4.05 plus 600 titles × 1,155. " + "A pure-volume plant runs at the low per-title end; a boutique-heavy mix pushes titles up " + "and volume down."), + H2("9.3 Direct cost per record"), + T(["Cost element", "USD/record", "THB/record", "Basis"], [ + ["PVC compound", "0.29 to 0.46", "9.6 to 15.2", "~150 to 160 g effective virgin at 1.75 to " + "2.90 USD/kg; regrind loop covers scrap"], + ["Labels", "0.03 to 0.09", "1.1 to 3.0", "Printed pairs, volume"], + ["Inner sleeve", "0.09 to 0.17", "3.0 to 5.7", "Poly-lined"], + ["Jacket (standard)", "0.40 to 0.92", "13.3 to 30.4", "Ploy Printing; largely pass-through"], + ["Shrink wrap", "0.02 to 0.03", "0.8 to 1.1", "Film"], + ["Energy", "0.12 to 0.23", "3.8 to 7.6", "~1.5 to 2 kWh blended per record at grid/solar mix"], + ["Production labour", "0.08 to 0.16", "2.6 to 5.4", "13 to 19 direct staff at northern Thai " + "rates, loaded ×1.3, over 1.0 to 1.5M " + "records"], + ["Stamper amortisation", "0.03 to 0.12", "1.0 to 4.0", "In-house three-generation set at " + "~USD 60 to 150 marginal over 1,000 " + "to 2,000 pressings"], + ["Maintenance, spares, consumables", "0.12 to 0.23", "3.8 to 7.6", "Estimate"], + ["Reject allowance", "0.12 to 0.17", "3.8 to 5.7", "5 to 10% reject rate carried by good units"], + ["**Total direct cost**", "**~1.30 to 2.58**", "**~43 to 85**", ""], + ], widths_mm=[42, 26, 26, 76], font_pt=8.5), + P("Blended price minus direct cost gives a gross margin of about **USD 2.11 per record at the " + "midpoint (~52%)**. The spread is wide and worth stating: the adverse corner (low price meeting " + "high cost) leaves USD 0.92 (26%), the favourable corner USD 3.30 (72%). Price realisation and " + "cost control each move the margin by more than a third on their own."), + H2("9.4 Operating picture at full capacity"), + P("Built from the components above. Three scenarios, each internally consistent: adverse pairs low " + "volume with the low price and high cost; favourable does the opposite; central takes midpoints. " + "Cash overheads (admin, sales, insurance, facility running, IT, professional fees, marketing, and " + "now the land lease) are estimated at USD 210k to 480k a year and paired high-to-adverse. " + "Depreciation is the 4.4M to 8.0M capital over 10 to 15 years."), + T(["USD per year", "Adverse", "Central", "Favourable"], [ + ["Records", "1.0M", "1.25M", "1.5M"], + ["Blended price", "3.50", "4.05", "4.60"], + ["Direct cost", "2.58", "1.94", "1.30"], + ["Contribution per record", "0.92", "2.11", "3.30"], + ["Pressing contribution", "0.92M", "2.64M", "4.95M"], + ["Title-services contribution", "0.10M", "0.28M", "0.48M"], + ["**Total contribution**", "**1.02M**", "**2.92M**", "**5.43M**"], + ["Cash overheads incl. lease", "0.48M", "0.35M", "0.21M"], + ["**EBITDA**", "**0.54M**", "**2.57M**", "**5.22M**"], + ["Depreciation", "0.80M", "0.50M", "0.29M"], + ["**Operating profit**", "**−0.26M**", "**2.07M**", "**4.93M**"], + ["Payback on 4.4M to 8.0M capital", "never", "2.1 to 3.9 yr", "0.9 to 1.6 yr"], + ], widths_mm=[60, 36, 36, 38]), + CALL("Reading this table honestly", [ + "**The adverse case loses money.** At 1.0M records, the low price, the high cost and the high " + "capital, the plant is EBITDA-positive but does not cover depreciation. Utilisation and price " + "realisation are not upside levers; they decide solvency.", + "**The favourable case is not credible**, and that is a finding about the cost table, not the " + "business. A 69% EBITDA margin is roughly triple what pressing plants earn; even the central " + "case at ~47% is well above industry norms of 15 to 25%. The direct cost table counts only " + "per-record consumables and direct payroll and almost certainly understates: missing at " + "minimum are indirect production labour, consumables beyond those listed, scrap above the " + "reject allowance, water and effluent, inbound freight, inventory carrying cost and sales " + "commission. Treat the adverse column as the honest one until those lines exist.", + "**This is a sensitivity, not a forecast.** BOI tax exemptions shield part of early-year " + "profits where there are any. The mix lever is real: colour, splatter and boutique runs carry " + "20 to 50% premiums and suit the semi-automatic line, and the title-services line has " + "software-like margins once the rooms exist.", + ]), + H2("9.5 The ramp"), + P("The operating picture above is the mature plant. The launch plant (one line, one shift) presses " + "90k to 135k records a year, which at the same blended price is USD 0.3M to 0.6M of pressing " + "revenue plus title services, cassette and CD-R lines, and possibly stamper supply to the " + "incumbent if galvanics comes early. It will not cover a full overhead base in year one, and " + "early production runs slower and rejects more than any of these figures while the process " + "settles. The Duplex expansion (second press on the existing hydraulics, ~USD 115k) is the " + "first revenue-funded step and roughly doubles capacity for a small sum; it should be planned " + "for year two. A year-by-year cash model belongs to the financing discussion and is a next " + "step, not a claim this plan makes."), + + # ----------------------------------------------- 10 timeline + H1("10. Timeline: today to first paying release"), + P("Anchored at September 2026. Every duration is an estimate; one of them is not documented " + "anywhere and governs the whole schedule. **First paying release lands around Q4 2028 to " + "mid-2029, roughly 27 to 33 months from today.** The critical path is not construction:"), + CALL("The critical path", "BOI certificate → press order → press build → sea freight → " + "commissioning. Everything else, including the entire building, has float against that chain. " + "The two things that move the date are the BOI filing date and the press vendor's build time, " + "and the second is not documented anywhere: 9 to 12 months is an industry-typical figure for " + "a built-to-order system from a small German manufacturer and it carries about 40% of the " + "schedule. If the real figure is 15 to 18 months, launch moves to mid-2029. The re-quote now " + "being requested asks for quoted build time and order-book position; it is one line in an " + "email and the single highest-value missing fact in the project."), + T(["#", "Step", "Duration", "Source"], [ + ["1", "Engage BOI consultant, prepare application", "4 to 5 months", "Estimate"], + ["2", "BOI review to certificate", "4 to 6 months", "BOI: ~40 working days decision, 4 to 6 " + "months in practice"], + ["3", "Company incorporation under the certificate", "1 to 2 months", "Roadmap"], + ["4", "Press order to vendor-ready", "**9 to 12 months**", "**Assumed; not yet quoted**"], + ["5", "Sea freight Germany to Thailand", "6 to 8 weeks", "Newbilt quote includes freight"], + ["6", "Install, commission, train", "2 to 3 months", "Newbilt includes 5 days; rest at " + "~USD 97/h plus travel"], + ["7", "Test pressings, QC baseline, reject shakedown", "1.5 to 2 months", "Roadmap"], + ["", "**Total**", "**~27 to 33 months**", ""], + ], widths_mm=[8, 70, 34, 58]), + T(["Track (in parallel)", "Needed by", "Float", "Becomes critical if"], [ + ["Land lease, zoning, soil test", "Design start, ~Q1 2027", "~4 months", "Zoning fails and a " + "new site is needed (~6 months reset)"], + ["Phase 1 construction", "Machinery arrival, ~Q3 2028", "~3 to 5 months", "Soft soil forces " + "piling, or permits stall"], + ["Factory licence (Ror.Ngor. 4)", "First production, Q4 2028", "~4 months", "Galvanics " + "effluent scope is raised early; keep it out of the phase 1 licence scope unless galvanics " + "moves forward"], + ["Solar and battery", "Fit-out, ~Q2 2028", "Large", "Not a risk; battery lead is 50 to 60 " + "days"], + ["Cassette and CD-R lines", "Fit-out, ~Q2 2028", "Large", "Not a risk; short lead times"], + ["Hiring and training", "Commissioning, ~Q3 2028", "~2 months", "Galvanics expertise if " + "galvanics moves forward: the " + "hardest skill to hire"], + ], widths_mm=[40, 40, 24, 66]), + P("**BOI windows are comfortable** on this schedule: machinery clears customs ~Q3 2028 against a " + "30-month import window ending ~Q4 2029, and first production ~Q4 2028 against a ~36-month " + "full-operation deadline. The margin is consumed by exactly one scenario: filing early to start " + "the clock and then discovering the site does not work. Verify zoning before filing."), + P("**Leasing does not by itself pull the launch forward.** Construction has only 3 to 5 months of " + "float against the press chain; removing purchase money from the plan does not move the end date. " + "Only the press order moves it, which is the BOI sequencing question in section 7. The two are " + "one lever, not two."), + P("**What a delay costs.** A month lost engaging the BOI consultant costs a month of launch. A " + "month lost on land or construction costs nothing until the float is gone. A month lost getting " + "the press lead time in writing costs nothing today and may cost six months of surprise later."), + + # ------------------------------------ 11 phasing and the galvanics question + H1("11. Phasing, and the one sequencing question that matters"), + P("Nothing in phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order before the BOI " + "certificate, no large spending before the market validates the price, no coppice planning " + "before the land-title check. The phased entry is the default path; the full vision is reached " + "through it, not instead of it."), + T(["Phase", "Content", "Gate"], [ + ["0. Validate and clear the gates (now)", "Market validation at Making Vinyl and with regional " + "labels; BOI consultant, activity code, application; lease terms, zoning, soil test; 60 rai " + "title check; re-quotes from Newbilt, Pheenix, Digital Matrix, Stamper Discs, building " + "contractors, Thai utility vendors; solar and battery engineering checks", "Runs in parallel; " + "gates everything"], + ["1. Quotes and site (during the BOI window)", "Firm quotes; site selection between the Mueang " + "Chi lease and the industrial estate; resolve the 35% vs 45% humidity floor", "BOI filed"], + ["2. Commit", "Incorporate under the certificate; sign the press order; sign the lease; order " + "long-lead items; written stamper turnaround agreement with Stamper Discs", "BOI certificate " + "and validated " + "pricing"], + ["3. Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)", "Construction, utilities, HVAC, " + "solar, battery, security; machinery installation and vendor commissioning; traceability v1; " + "cassette and CD-R lines; hire and train", "Building permit, press build confirmed"], + ["4. Launch (pressing with bridge stampers)", "Test pressings, QC baselines, reject shakedown; " + "first paying releases; per-lot PVC gate live; qualify Thai compound", "Commissioning complete"], + ["5. Expand (revenue-gated)", "Duplex second press; galvanics line with zero-discharge water; " + "automatic presses; full metrology and the audio QC station; biomass boiler; mastering and " + "cutting room; phase 2 building; CD replication if chosen", "Revenue and second-round " + "capital"], + ], widths_mm=[42, 96, 32], font_pt=8.5), + H2("Should galvanics come first rather than fifth?"), + P("The roadmap places the plating line in phase 5. The August 2026 market evidence argues for " + "costing an earlier start, and the investor should decide with the following in view:"), + T(["For moving galvanics to phase 1", "Against"], [ + ["It addresses the market's actual bottleneck: imported metalwork, not press capacity. The " + "incumbent turns away small runs and adds weeks above 3,000 units, most plausibly because " + "every stamper set is an overseas order.", "It still needs a clean room, zero-discharge water " + "treatment and hazardous-substance permitting, " + "which is the most likely regulatory friction " + "point in the whole project."], + ["It is a fraction of the full capital (USD 320k to 650k plus 90k to 240k water) and is " + "driven by title count, not record volume: payback at 300 titles a year is one to five " + "years depending on which end of the saving range holds.", "It is the hardest skill to hire. " + "No plating expertise exists in " + "the country; the process " + "engineer comes from abroad or is " + "trained abroad."], + ["It could earn before CNX's own press hall exists, by supplying stampers into the incumbent's " + "spare press capacity: 300 titles a year at wholesale might net USD 60k to 100k of " + "contribution, a useful offset against the capital.", "That offset is not a business case: " + "it assumes a competitor moves its " + "entire stamper supply to a new " + "entrant who is also its rival, and " + "the incumbent's actual title count " + "is unknown."], + ["It removes the launch plan's dependence on a single small UK supplier with no documented " + "Asian customers and two international freight legs per job.", "The saving is measured " + "against the wrong supplier: " + "CNX's avoided cost at launch " + "is the Stamper Discs price, " + "which has not been quoted " + "yet."], + ], widths_mm=[85, 85], font_pt=8.5), + P("**Recommendation:** get the Stamper Discs quote and a line-itemised full-service invoice from " + "the incumbent in phase 0, cost the galvanics room properly with Digital Matrix and a Thai water " + "vendor, and put the decision to the investor with real numbers before the BOI application is " + "finalised, because the galvanics effluent changes the licence scope."), + + # --------------------------------------- 12 team, ownership, governance + H1("12. Team, ownership and governance"), + H2("12.1 The people"), + T(["Who", "Role"], [ + ["Simona Meesaiyati", "Project Lead. Owns the commercial side: market validation, label " + "relationships, the Making Vinyl outreach, the BOI track and the site."], + ["Alexander Grabowski", "Technical Consultant. Owns the plant: equipment selection and " + "vendor negotiation, the utility and efficiency architecture, the parametric building model, " + "the traceability and QC specification, and the factory software."], + ["buildfor.life", "Supports the project in a consulting capacity: engineering, sustainability " + "and project management."], + ["Ploy Printing (Ploy Karnpim Limited Partnership, Chiang Mai)", "Packaging partner and " + "intended strategic co-investor: jackets, sleeves, inserts, J-cards and CD packaging on " + "offset, digital, risograph, UV and latex presses, with existing vinyl packaging production."], + ["To be hired", "Plant manager; galvanics process engineer (when galvanics is built); " + "mastering and cutting engineer (when the room is built); QC lead; maintenance; press and " + "finishing operators; sales and customer service for the label relationship and the " + "traceability portal."], + ["External", "BOI-registered consultant; Thai counsel for the lease, company and shareholder " + "agreement; optional vinyl manufacturing consultancy for layout, installation and training " + "(GBP 10k to 20k packages); Newbilt commissioning; property insurer."], + ], widths_mm=[48, 122]), + P("Headcount at maturity is roughly 15 to 25 across shifts (4 to 6 press and finishing operators " + "per shift, 2 to 3 galvanics, 1 to 2 mastering, 1 to 2 QC, 2 maintenance, 3 to 5 admin, sales " + "and logistics), fewer than half that at launch, plus 1 to 2 for the cassette and CD-R lines."), + H2("12.2 Ownership and structure"), + P("Amounts and percentages are not yet agreed and are deliberately left open here. The intended " + "structure is:"), + B([ + "**One Thai limited company** holds the plant, the lease, the equipment and the BOI promotion. " + "BOI promotion permits 100% foreign ownership of the promoted manufacturing activity, so the " + "shareholding can be set on commercial terms rather than to satisfy the Foreign Business Act.", + "**Shareholders:** the lead investor; Ploy Printing as strategic co-investor; and the founders. " + "Ploy Printing's participation, whether in cash, in kind (print capacity, premises, working " + "capital in packaging) or both, is to be discussed; its strategic value is a packaging partner " + "whose incentives are aligned with the plant's schedule and quality, within the same province.", + "**Debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1**, maintained for the life of the BOI privileges, which " + "sets the floor on equity in the financing mix.", + "**A shareholders' agreement** covering board composition, reserved matters (capital calls, " + "phase 5 expansions, CD replication), pre-emption and transfer, information rights, and the " + "founders' roles and remuneration.", + "**Related-party discipline.** Ploy Printing will be both a shareholder and the plant's main " + "packaging supplier. The supply agreement is priced at arm's length, benchmarked periodically " + "against other printers, with quality and lead-time terms written down, and Ploy Printing " + "abstains from board decisions on its own contract. This protects both the lead investor and " + "Ploy Printing, and it is what a BOI or bank reviewer will look for.", + "**Any label, content or retail activity (Poy Records as a brand) sits in a separate entity**, " + "so the manufacturing company's BOI application stays clean.", + ]), + + # ------------------------------------------------------ 13 risks + H1("13. Risks and open questions"), + P("Every plan has risks; the point of listing them is to say which are being retired, by what, and " + "when. The first column is the plan's own honest severity."), + T(["Severity", "Risk", "What it would do", "Mitigation and status"], [ + ["High", "Pricing power in the region is unproven", "The single biggest assumption in the " + "revenue model; a turnaround advantage nobody pays a premium for is a cost, not a moat", + "Market validation gate: Making Vinyl, regional label conversations, a second Thai data " + "point; no big-block spending before it clears"], + ["High", "Utilisation", "The cost structure is mostly fixed; 60% utilisation at mature size " + "cuts operating profit by more than half; the adverse case is loss-making at full volume", + "Phase capacity behind demand: one line, then Duplex, then automatic presses, each " + "revenue-gated; hold spare capacity as the turnaround promise requires"], + ["High", "Press build time unknown", "Carries ~40% of the schedule; 15 to 18 months would " + "push launch to mid-2029", "Required field in the Newbilt and Pheenix re-quotes, now"], + ["High", "Zoning of the candidate parcel unverified", "Gates phase 1 as much as phase 2; a " + "site reset costs ~6 months", "Verify before the BOI filing; industrial estate as fallback"], + ["Medium", "Lease terms and building ownership", "A weak lease makes the building hard to " + "finance and exposes it at expiry", "Registered 30 to 50 year lease with renewal, explicit " + "building ownership and assignment rights; Thai counsel " + "in phase 0"], + ["Medium", "Soil conditions", "Piling could add several hundred to 1,000+ THB/m² across " + "building, paving and fill", "Soil boring test in phase 0 (THB 30k to 50k)"], + ["Medium", "Bridge stamper supplier", "Launch lead time rests on one small UK supplier with " + "no Asian customers; the 10 to 20 day external metal block is unmeasured", "Written " + "turnaround " + "agreement; cost " + "the galvanics-first " + "option (section 11)"], + ["Medium", "Galvanics permitting and skills", "Effluent permitting is the most likely " + "regulatory friction; plating expertise is the hardest hire", "Zero-discharge design from the " + "start; industrial estate " + "option; recruit or train abroad; " + "keep out of the phase 1 licence " + "unless brought forward"], + ["Medium", "Currency", "EUR equipment, THB costs, USD/EUR revenue; 10% moves are worth tens " + "of thousands on the press order and 0.09 to 0.17 USD per record on margin", "State currency " + "and validity " + "in quotes; " + "consider THB " + "pricing " + "regionally; " + "hedge the press " + "order"], + ["Medium", "Vinyl demand is cyclical", "Global capacity has been added; the model assumes the " + "plant sells what it presses", "Mixed fleet suits boutique work that is less cyclical; " + "cassette and CD-R lines diversify; phase behind demand"], + ["Medium", "Reject rate in early production", "Early runs will be worse than the 5 to 10% " + "allowance while the process settles", "Vendor commissioning, materials lab from day one, " + "QC layers, conservative launch promises"], + ["Medium", "Competitive response", "The incumbent may add plating, or a second entrant may " + "appear; the domestic price ceiling may compress on our arrival", "Compete on capability " + "(traceability, QC, " + "climate), export " + "customers, and the " + "collaboration under " + "discussion"], + ["Low", "Solar and battery integration", "Rack voltage vs inverter window; unpublished " + "certifications; mixed-vendor warranty", "Engineering checks and certificate requests in " + "phase 0; large float"], + ["Low", "Cassette supply chain", "Blank tape and shells come from few suppliers", "Hold " + "stock; qualify two sources"], + ["Low", "CD replication scope creep", "Adds USD 1.5M to 4.0M and a second commissioning " + "programme", "Decide before BOI filing; treat as a separate project if chosen"], + ], widths_mm=[16, 40, 52, 62], font_pt=8), + P("**Open questions with owners and dates** are in the next section. Two standing caveats on the " + "evidence base: the Thai market data is one buyer, one plant and one afternoon, and the " + "underlying invoices and tour notes should be archived with this plan before it goes in front " + "of a bank; and the incumbent is a competitor, so every collaboration scenario assumes they would " + "buy a critical input from a new entrant, which they may decline to do."), + + # ------------------------------------------------- 14 next steps + H1("14. Next steps and the ask"), + H2("14.1 Phase 0: the next three to six months"), + T(["#", "Action", "Owner", "Cost", "Retires"], [ + ["1", "Making Vinyl (Haarlem) and regional label conversations; test the 3.50 to 4.60 USD " + "blended price, run sizes, and whether 7 weeks instead of 14 plus freight is worth a premium", + "Simona, Alexander", "Travel", "Pricing risk"], + ["2", "Engage a BOI-registered consultant; confirm the activity sub-code; put the " + "order-before-certificate question first; add cassette and CD-R; decide CD replication", + "Simona", "USD 5k to 15k", "Sequencing, scope"], + ["3", "Thai counsel: lease heads of terms with the Mueang Chi lessor (term, renewal, building " + "ownership, assignment), zoning verification, company and shareholder structure including " + "Ploy Printing", "Simona, counsel", "USD 5k to 15k", "Zoning, lease, ownership"], + ["4", "Soil boring test on the candidate parcel", "Alexander", "THB 30k to 50k", "Ground risk"], + ["5", "Newbilt re-quote with build time, order-book position, PLC data access, currency and " + "validity; same questions to Pheenix Alpha for the AD12 and AD12 Manual", "Alexander", + "Free", "Schedule, price"], + ["6", "Stamper Discs quote and written turnaround terms; line-itemised full-service invoice " + "from the incumbent; Digital Matrix galvanics quote and a Thai water-treatment vendor", + "Alexander", "Free", "Galvanics decision"], + ["7", "Send the construction price request to two or three Thai PEB contractors", "Alexander", + "Free", "Building estimate"], + ["8", "Thai utility RFQs: boiler, chiller, compressed air, HVAC (35% vs 45% humidity floor), " + "solar EPC; Deye and Gobel engineering checks", "Alexander", "Free", "Utilities band"], + ["9", "Cassette and CD-R equipment quotes from two vendors each; tape and shell supply", + "Alexander", "Free", "New-scope estimates"], + ["10", "60 rai title check for the coppice plan", "Simona", "Small", "Biomass path"], + ["11", "Optional: vinyl manufacturing consultancy engagement for layout and installation " + "review", "Alexander", "GBP 10k to 20k", "Layout risk"], + ["12", "Archive the Thai invoices and tour notes with this plan", "Simona", "None", "Evidence " + "base"], + ], widths_mm=[8, 84, 26, 24, 28], font_pt=8), + H2("14.2 What the investor is asked for"), + KV([ + ["Now", "Approval of Phase 0 spending of ~USD 40k to 80k, and a decision on CD scope (section " + "4.9) before the BOI application is finalised."], + ["On the gates clearing", "Commitment in principle to phase 1 at ~USD 2.2M to 3.9M, released " + "in the tranches of section 8.3, with the financing mix set to hold " + "debt-to-equity at or below 3:1."], + ["Decisions", "Whether galvanics moves into phase 1 (section 11), once the phase 0 quotes are " + "in; the shareholder structure with Ploy Printing and the founders; hedging of " + "the press order."], + ["Later", "Revenue-gated expansion to the full vision (~USD 4.4M to 8.0M in total) as the " + "launch plant proves the market: Duplex, galvanics, automatic presses, full " + "metrology, mastering room, biomass, and the phase 2 building."], + ], widths_mm=[38, 132]), + P("The next version of this plan should carry: firm re-quotes in place of the expired and " + "estimated blocks, the negotiated lease figure, a second market data point, the investor's CD " + "decision, a year-by-year cash model for the ramp, and the shareholder terms. Each of those is " + "a phase 0 output."), + + # --------------------------------------------------- 15 appendix + H1("15. Appendix: sources and planning documents"), + P("This plan is compiled from the project's planning repository (cnx_vinyl, GitLab), which is the " + "source of truth and holds the detail behind every section:"), + T(["Document", "Content"], [ + ["roadmap.md", "Next steps in dependency order, from the three current gates through launch " + "and expansion"], + ["scale.md", "Project sizing on one page: capacity, building, land, electrical, solar, steam, " + "people"], + ["finance/total-investment.md", "Full-vision and phased-entry capital roll-up with the basis " + "of every block"], + ["finance/revenue-model.md", "Pricing, direct cost, margin, operating scenarios, and the " + "August 2026 Thai market data and factory tour"], + ["finance/utilities-investment.csv", "Thai supplier candidates and budgetary ranges for " + "steam, cooling, air, water, HVAC, solar and battery"], + ["finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md", "Contractor price request with quantities from the " + "parametric model"], + ["equipment/pressing-line.md and equipment/newbilt/", "Press fleet strategy; Newbilt " + "budgetary offer, site requirements, " + "process schematic, service rates"], + ["suppliers/vendor-landscape.md and equipment-suppliers.md", "Per-vendor narrative and the " + "full needs list with contacts"], + ["process-flow.md, production-timeline.md, project-timeline.md", "The chain and its checks; " + "order turnaround stage by " + "stage; the calendar and " + "critical path"], + ["traceability.md, quality-automation.md", "The traceability specification; metrology, " + "layered record QC, the materials lab, packaging QC"], + ["sustainability.md, biomass.md", "Solar, heat recovery, water, zero discharge, materials; " + "the biomass fuel strategy and the 60 rai coppice"], + ["facility-security.md, worker-safety.md", "Climate control, security, fire and life safety, " + "compliance anchors; safety program"], + ["boi.md", "BOI promotion strategy, requirements, process, open items"], + ["cnx_vinyl_parametric.FCStd and renders/", "The parametric building and site model on the " + "candidate parcel, and its renders"], + ], widths_mm=[62, 108], font_pt=8.5), + P("Vendor PDFs and spreadsheets are primary sources and reflect the state of negotiations at " + "their file dates. Treat prices and lead times as snapshots, not commitments."), + ] diff --git a/docs/business-plan/build/plan_lib.py b/docs/business-plan/build/plan_lib.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0dcc469 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/business-plan/build/plan_lib.py @@ -0,0 +1,320 @@ +"""Tiny document DSL and renderer for the CNX Vinyl business plan. + +Blocks are plain tuples so the content files stay readable: + + H1("text") / H2 / H3 headings + P("text with **bold** runs") paragraph + B([...]) bullet list + N([...]) numbered list (manual numbers, restart per list) + T(header, rows, widths_mm=None, caption=None, font_pt=9) + KV([[k, v], ...], widths_mm) two-column table without header + IMG(path, width_mm, caption) picture + CALL(title, body) shaded call-out box; body is str or list + PB() page break + TOC() table-of-contents field +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import re +from pathlib import Path + +from docx import Document +from docx.enum.table import WD_TABLE_ALIGNMENT +from docx.enum.text import WD_ALIGN_PARAGRAPH, WD_BREAK +from docx.oxml import OxmlElement +from docx.oxml.ns import qn +from docx.shared import Mm, Pt, RGBColor + +NAVY = RGBColor(0x1F, 0x38, 0x64) +BLUE = RGBColor(0x2E, 0x55, 0x97) +GREY = RGBColor(0x59, 0x59, 0x59) +HEADER_FILL = "1F3864" +CALLOUT_FILL = "DEEAF6" +ALT_FILL = "F2F5FA" +BODY_FONT = "Calibri" + + +# ----------------------------------------------------------------- DSL --- +def H1(t): return ("h", 1, t) +def H2(t): return ("h", 2, t) +def H3(t): return ("h", 3, t) +def P(t, style=None): return ("p", t, style) +def B(items): return ("bullets", items) +def N(items): return ("numbers", items) +def T(header, rows, widths_mm=None, caption=None, font_pt=9): + return ("table", header, rows, widths_mm, caption, font_pt) +def KV(rows, widths_mm=(50, 115), font_pt=9.5): return ("kv", rows, widths_mm, font_pt) +def IMG(path, width_mm, caption=None): return ("img", path, width_mm, caption) +def CALL(title, body): return ("callout", title, body) +def PB(): return ("pb",) +def TOC(): return ("toc",) +def COVER(**kw): return ("cover", kw) + + +# ------------------------------------------------------------ helpers --- +def _shade(cell, fill): + tcPr = cell._tc.get_or_add_tcPr() + shd = OxmlElement("w:shd") + shd.set(qn("w:val"), "clear") + shd.set(qn("w:color"), "auto") + shd.set(qn("w:fill"), fill) + tcPr.append(shd) + + +def _field(paragraph, instr, placeholder): + run = paragraph.add_run() + b = OxmlElement("w:fldChar"); b.set(qn("w:fldCharType"), "begin") + i = OxmlElement("w:instrText"); i.set(qn("xml:space"), "preserve"); i.text = instr + s = OxmlElement("w:fldChar"); s.set(qn("w:fldCharType"), "separate") + t = OxmlElement("w:t"); t.text = placeholder + e = OxmlElement("w:fldChar"); e.set(qn("w:fldCharType"), "end") + for el in (b, i, s, t, e): + run._r.append(el) + return run + + +def _set_font(style, name, size=None, bold=None, color=None, italic=None): + f = style.font + f.name = name + rpr = style.element.get_or_add_rPr() + rfonts = rpr.find(qn("w:rFonts")) + if rfonts is None: + rfonts = OxmlElement("w:rFonts"); rpr.append(rfonts) + for k in ("w:ascii", "w:hAnsi", "w:eastAsia", "w:cs"): + rfonts.set(qn(k), name) + if size is not None: f.size = Pt(size) + if bold is not None: f.bold = bold + if italic is not None: f.italic = italic + if color is not None: f.color.rgb = color + + +_INLINE = re.compile(r"(\*\*.+?\*\*)") + + +def _runs(paragraph, text, size=None, color=None): + for part in _INLINE.split(text): + if not part: + continue + bold = part.startswith("**") and part.endswith("**") + run = paragraph.add_run(part[2:-2] if bold else part) + run.bold = bold or None + if size is not None: run.font.size = Pt(size) + if color is not None: run.font.color.rgb = color + return paragraph + + +def _cell_text(cell, text, size, bold=False, color=None, align=None): + cell.text = "" + para = cell.paragraphs[0] + para.paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(1) + para.paragraph_format.space_before = Pt(1) + if align: para.alignment = align + for j, line in enumerate(str(text).split("\n")): + if j: + para = cell.add_paragraph() + para.paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(1) + _runs(para, line, size=size, color=color) + if bold: + for r in para.runs: r.bold = True + + +def _caption(doc, text): + p = doc.add_paragraph() + p.paragraph_format.space_before = Pt(2) + p.paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(8) + r = p.add_run(text) + r.italic = True + r.font.size = Pt(8.5) + r.font.color.rgb = GREY + return p + + +def _keep_rows_together(table): + for row in table.rows: + trPr = row._tr.get_or_add_trPr() + cs = OxmlElement("w:cantSplit"); trPr.append(cs) + + +# ----------------------------------------------------------- renderer --- +class Renderer: + def __init__(self, base_dir: Path, header_text: str, footer_text: str): + self.base = Path(base_dir) + self.doc = Document() + self._setup_page() + self._setup_styles() + self._setup_header_footer(header_text, footer_text) + self._update_fields_on_open() + + # -- setup + def _setup_page(self): + s = self.doc.sections[0] + s.page_width, s.page_height = Mm(210), Mm(297) + s.top_margin = s.bottom_margin = Mm(22) + s.left_margin = s.right_margin = Mm(20) + s.header_distance = s.footer_distance = Mm(10) + + def _setup_styles(self): + st = self.doc.styles + _set_font(st["Normal"], BODY_FONT, 10.5) + pf = st["Normal"].paragraph_format + pf.space_after = Pt(6); pf.line_spacing = 1.08 + _set_font(st["Heading 1"], BODY_FONT, 17, True, NAVY) + st["Heading 1"].paragraph_format.space_before = Pt(18) + st["Heading 1"].paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(8) + _set_font(st["Heading 2"], BODY_FONT, 13, True, BLUE) + st["Heading 2"].paragraph_format.space_before = Pt(12) + st["Heading 2"].paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(4) + _set_font(st["Heading 3"], BODY_FONT, 11, True, RGBColor(0x40, 0x40, 0x40)) + st["Heading 3"].paragraph_format.space_before = Pt(8) + st["Heading 3"].paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(3) + for name in ("List Bullet", "List Number"): + _set_font(st[name], BODY_FONT, 10.5) + st[name].paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(3) + + def _setup_header_footer(self, header_text, footer_text): + s = self.doc.sections[0] + hp = s.header.paragraphs[0] + hp.alignment = WD_ALIGN_PARAGRAPH.RIGHT + r = hp.add_run(header_text); r.font.size = Pt(8.5); r.font.color.rgb = GREY + fp = s.footer.paragraphs[0] + fp.alignment = WD_ALIGN_PARAGRAPH.CENTER + r = fp.add_run(footer_text + " | Page "); r.font.size = Pt(8.5); r.font.color.rgb = GREY + r = _field(fp, "PAGE", "1"); r.font.size = Pt(8.5); r.font.color.rgb = GREY + r = fp.add_run(" of "); r.font.size = Pt(8.5); r.font.color.rgb = GREY + r = _field(fp, "NUMPAGES", "1"); r.font.size = Pt(8.5); r.font.color.rgb = GREY + + def _update_fields_on_open(self): + el = OxmlElement("w:updateFields"); el.set(qn("w:val"), "true") + self.doc.settings.element.append(el) + + # -- blocks + def render(self, blocks): + for blk in blocks: + kind = blk[0] + getattr(self, "_b_" + kind)(*blk[1:]) + return self.doc + + def _b_cover(self, kw): + d = self.doc + for _ in range(3): d.add_paragraph() + p = d.add_paragraph(); p.alignment = WD_ALIGN_PARAGRAPH.LEFT + r = p.add_run(kw["kicker"]); r.font.size = Pt(12); r.font.color.rgb = BLUE; r.bold = True + p = d.add_paragraph() + r = p.add_run(kw["title"]); r.font.size = Pt(30); r.font.color.rgb = NAVY; r.bold = True + p.paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(6) + p = d.add_paragraph() + r = p.add_run(kw["subtitle"]); r.font.size = Pt(13); r.font.color.rgb = GREY + p.paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(14) + if kw.get("image"): + d.add_picture(str(self.base / kw["image"]), width=Mm(170)) + p = d.add_paragraph(); p.paragraph_format.space_before = Pt(10) + for line in kw["lines"]: + _runs(p, line, size=10.5); p.add_run().add_break() + p = d.add_paragraph() + r = p.add_run(kw["note"]); r.font.size = Pt(8.5); r.italic = True; r.font.color.rgb = GREY + d.add_paragraph().add_run().add_break(WD_BREAK.PAGE) + + def _b_toc(self): + d = self.doc + p = d.add_paragraph(); r = p.add_run("Contents"); r.font.size = Pt(17); r.bold = True; r.font.color.rgb = NAVY + p = d.add_paragraph() + _field(p, 'TOC \\o "1-2" \\h \\z \\u', + "Table of contents: open in Word and press F9 (or accept the update prompt) to populate.") + d.add_paragraph().add_run().add_break(WD_BREAK.PAGE) + + def _b_h(self, level, text): + self.doc.add_heading(text, level=level) + + def _b_p(self, text, style): + p = self.doc.add_paragraph(style=style) if style else self.doc.add_paragraph() + _runs(p, text) + + def _b_bullets(self, items): + for it in items: + _runs(self.doc.add_paragraph(style="List Bullet"), it) + + def _b_numbers(self, items): + for i, it in enumerate(items, 1): + p = self.doc.add_paragraph() + p.paragraph_format.left_indent = Mm(8) + p.paragraph_format.first_line_indent = Mm(-6) + p.paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(3) + _runs(p, f"{i}. {it}") + + def _b_table(self, header, rows, widths, caption, font_pt): + d = self.doc + n = len(header) + t = d.add_table(rows=1, cols=n) + t.style = d.styles["Table Grid"] + t.alignment = WD_TABLE_ALIGNMENT.CENTER + for j, h in enumerate(header): + c = t.rows[0].cells[j] + _shade(c, HEADER_FILL) + _cell_text(c, h, font_pt, bold=True, color=RGBColor(0xFF, 0xFF, 0xFF)) + for i, row in enumerate(rows): + cells = t.add_row().cells + for j in range(n): + val = row[j] if j < len(row) else "" + _cell_text(cells[j], val, font_pt) + if i % 2 == 1: _shade(cells[j], ALT_FILL) + if widths: + for row in t.rows: + for j, w in enumerate(widths): + row.cells[j].width = Mm(w) + # repeat header row + trPr = t.rows[0]._tr.get_or_add_trPr() + th = OxmlElement("w:tblHeader"); th.set(qn("w:val"), "true"); trPr.append(th) + _keep_rows_together(t) + if caption: _caption(d, caption) + else: d.add_paragraph().paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(2) + + def _b_kv(self, rows, widths, font_pt): + d = self.doc + t = d.add_table(rows=0, cols=2) + t.style = d.styles["Table Grid"] + t.alignment = WD_TABLE_ALIGNMENT.CENTER + for k, v in rows: + cells = t.add_row().cells + _shade(cells[0], ALT_FILL) + _cell_text(cells[0], k, font_pt, bold=True) + _cell_text(cells[1], v, font_pt) + for row in t.rows: + for j, w in enumerate(widths): + row.cells[j].width = Mm(w) + _keep_rows_together(t) + d.add_paragraph().paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(2) + + def _b_img(self, path, width_mm, caption): + self.doc.add_picture(str(self.base / path), width=Mm(width_mm)) + self.doc.paragraphs[-1].alignment = WD_ALIGN_PARAGRAPH.CENTER + if caption: _caption(self.doc, caption) + + def _b_callout(self, title, body): + d = self.doc + t = d.add_table(rows=1, cols=1) + t.style = d.styles["Table Grid"] + t.alignment = WD_TABLE_ALIGNMENT.CENTER + c = t.rows[0].cells[0] + _shade(c, CALLOUT_FILL) + c.width = Mm(170) + c.text = "" + p = c.paragraphs[0] + p.paragraph_format.space_before = Pt(3); p.paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(3) + r = p.add_run(title); r.bold = True; r.font.color.rgb = NAVY; r.font.size = Pt(10.5) + items = body if isinstance(body, list) else [body] + for it in items: + q = c.add_paragraph() + q.paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(3) + if isinstance(body, list): + q.paragraph_format.left_indent = Mm(4) + _runs(q, "\u2022 " + it, size=10) + else: + _runs(q, it, size=10) + _keep_rows_together(t) + d.add_paragraph().paragraph_format.space_after = Pt(2) + + def _b_pb(self): + self.doc.add_paragraph().add_run().add_break(WD_BREAK.PAGE) + + def save(self, path): + self.doc.save(str(path))