[ { "station": "P.1", "warn_thr": 3.7, "folds": [ { "year": 2021, "n_train": 20024, "n_test": 4392, "events": [], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.07375926701460789, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.07375926701460789, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 7.852802408474157e-14, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2022, "n_train": 28784, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-10-02T19:00:00", "peak_ts": "2022-10-03T15:00:00", "peak_level": 4.65 } ], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.08452847354970178, "mae_above_2p5": 0.25082252888260664, "brier_warn": 0.004300908725927739, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-10-02T19:00:00", "lead_h": 5.0, "peak_level": 4.65, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.8173954245046406 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.08452847354970178, "mae_above_2p5": 0.25082252888260664, "brier_warn": 0.0039815091186836665, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-10-02T19:00:00", "lead_h": 5.0, "peak_level": 4.65, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.8173954245046406 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2023, "n_train": 37539, "n_test": 4392, "events": [], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.07696637416933236, "mae_above_2p5": 0.10643655855133666, "brier_warn": 1.919860722404625e-15, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.07696637416933236, "mae_above_2p5": 0.10643655855133666, "brier_warn": 4.0844243581898366e-08, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2024, "n_train": 46323, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T17:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-09-26T02:00:00", "peak_level": 4.93 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T09:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-10-05T12:00:00", "peak_level": 5.3 } ], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.0890019157543212, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2093245927883516, "brier_warn": 0.005826169840715695, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T17:00:00", "lead_h": 10.0, "peak_level": 4.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.817519939833057 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T09:00:00", "lead_h": 21.0, "peak_level": 5.3, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.546588884631041 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.0890019157543212, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2093245927883516, "brier_warn": 0.005475787026695418, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T17:00:00", "lead_h": 10.0, "peak_level": 4.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.817519939833057 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T09:00:00", "lead_h": 21.0, "peak_level": 5.3, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.546588884631041 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2025, "n_train": 55083, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-27T18:00:00", "peak_ts": "2025-09-27T22:00:00", "peak_level": 3.93 } ], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.11202835461695825, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2456782496767171, "brier_warn": 0.005178356039745929, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-27T18:00:00", "lead_h": 2.0, "peak_level": 3.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.23 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.11202835461695825, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2456782496767171, "brier_warn": 0.00491346243876589, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-27T18:00:00", "lead_h": 2.0, "peak_level": 3.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.23 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } } ] }, { "station": "P.103", "warn_thr": 5.95, "folds": [ { "year": 2021, "n_train": 20009, "n_test": 4392, "events": [], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.14438683486790602, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.14438683486790602, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 3.5349670949872053e-13, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2022, "n_train": 28769, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-08-14T04:00:00", "peak_ts": "2022-08-14T08:00:00", "peak_level": 6.09 }, { "crossing": "2022-10-02T16:00:00", "peak_ts": "2022-10-03T16:00:00", "peak_level": 7.54 } ], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.14392334606606189, "mae_above_2p5": 0.41075382386412596, "brier_warn": 0.00764679988213082, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-08-14T04:00:00", "lead_h": 6.0, "peak_level": 6.09, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.825270553204425 }, { "crossing": "2022-10-02T16:00:00", "lead_h": 9.0, "peak_level": 7.54, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.194064117976157 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.14392334606606189, "mae_above_2p5": 0.41075382386412596, "brier_warn": 0.006975493312169236, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-08-14T04:00:00", "lead_h": 6.0, "peak_level": 6.09, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.825270553204425 }, { "crossing": "2022-10-02T16:00:00", "lead_h": 9.0, "peak_level": 7.54, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.194064117976157 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2023, "n_train": 37524, "n_test": 4392, "events": [], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.16195301512514512, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 3.0208441147560167e-07, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.16195301512514512, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 3.2176039819636275e-05, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2024, "n_train": 46308, "n_test": 4058, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T10:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-09-26T00:00:00", "peak_level": 8.27 }, { "crossing": "2024-09-30T03:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-09-30T06:00:00", "peak_level": 5.99 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T06:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-10-05T07:00:00", "peak_level": 9.93 } ], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.13901842325128816, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2887416310966684, "brier_warn": 0.0072040857753137046, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T10:00:00", "lead_h": 19.0, "peak_level": 8.27, "peak_pred_24h_before": 8.212734363860193 }, { "crossing": "2024-09-30T03:00:00", "lead_h": 9.0, "peak_level": 5.99, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.47565489914091 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 55.0, "peak_level": 9.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 8.780278464915938 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.13901842325128816, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2887416310966684, "brier_warn": 0.006910847607098417, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T10:00:00", "lead_h": 19.0, "peak_level": 8.27, "peak_pred_24h_before": 8.212734363860193 }, { "crossing": "2024-09-30T03:00:00", "lead_h": 9.0, "peak_level": 5.99, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.47565489914091 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 55.0, "peak_level": 9.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 8.780278464915938 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2025, "n_train": 54577, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-26T06:00:00", "peak_ts": "2025-09-27T21:00:00", "peak_level": 6.64 }, { "crossing": "2025-10-03T06:00:00", "peak_ts": "2025-10-03T12:00:00", "peak_level": 6.14 } ], "variants": { "rise_rain": { "mae": 0.17206685418009837, "mae_above_2p5": 0.3840520085986099, "brier_warn": 0.015824852891785323, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-26T06:00:00", "lead_h": 6.0, "peak_level": 6.64, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.73043665401637 }, { "crossing": "2025-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 8.0, "peak_level": 6.14, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.609919760117381 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 2 }, "rise_rain_qsigma": { "mae": 0.17206685418009837, "mae_above_2p5": 0.3840520085986099, "brier_warn": 0.015889933586185904, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-26T06:00:00", "lead_h": 6.0, "peak_level": 6.64, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.73043665401637 }, { "crossing": "2025-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 8.0, "peak_level": 6.14, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.609919760117381 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 2 } } } ] } ]