[ { "station": "P.1", "warn_thr": 3.7, "folds": [ { "year": 2021, "n_train": 20024, "n_test": 4392, "events": [], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.073069548799388, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.070970681677648, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.07394501467643348, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.07289422294875283, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 6.870660393452143e-17, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2022, "n_train": 28782, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-10-02T19:00:00", "peak_ts": "2022-10-03T15:00:00", "peak_level": 4.65 } ], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.09128484356553154, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2856025611084259, "brier_warn": 0.005440790049399641, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-10-02T19:00:00", "lead_h": 0.0, "peak_level": 4.65, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.4 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.08489734638010188, "mae_above_2p5": 0.24517428534843191, "brier_warn": 0.004136576477574926, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-10-02T19:00:00", "lead_h": 6.0, "peak_level": 4.65, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.870617057762467 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.08451609397908402, "mae_above_2p5": 0.24677443475763222, "brier_warn": 0.0041231071254735656, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-10-02T19:00:00", "lead_h": 6.0, "peak_level": 4.65, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.9060484870307466 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.08412283956084679, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2653552568120815, "brier_warn": 0.004349073127074364, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-10-02T19:00:00", "lead_h": 3.0, "peak_level": 4.65, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.641048749261635 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2023, "n_train": 37537, "n_test": 4392, "events": [], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.08161389876263064, "mae_above_2p5": 0.1335546690803318, "brier_warn": 3.284466170848282e-09, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.07647507344443248, "mae_above_2p5": 0.12593127745781565, "brier_warn": 3.19529506149809e-11, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.07633405851952908, "mae_above_2p5": 0.12234064428755373, "brier_warn": 9.093694748477163e-10, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.07460579730428984, "mae_above_2p5": 0.11243109915383911, "brier_warn": 8.148092046865233e-08, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2024, "n_train": 46321, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T17:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-09-26T02:00:00", "peak_level": 4.93 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T09:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-10-05T12:00:00", "peak_level": 5.3 } ], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.11011679980584997, "mae_above_2p5": 0.28849258735632527, "brier_warn": 0.010963910189916666, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T17:00:00", "lead_h": 0.0, "peak_level": 4.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.39 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T09:00:00", "lead_h": 0.0, "peak_level": 5.3, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.9 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.10075626719251345, "mae_above_2p5": 0.26384939692286363, "brier_warn": 0.011608221543810462, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T17:00:00", "lead_h": 6.0, "peak_level": 4.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.534709676862131 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T09:00:00", "lead_h": 3.0, "peak_level": 5.3, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.056619694027486 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.10644718990351541, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2848978622398853, "brier_warn": 0.013872775238121434, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T17:00:00", "lead_h": 9.0, "peak_level": 4.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.502016075573465 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T09:00:00", "lead_h": 72.0, "peak_level": 5.3, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.123356409745132 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.09617759284936986, "mae_above_2p5": 0.271753261978628, "brier_warn": 0.011660822672241142, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T17:00:00", "lead_h": 4.0, "peak_level": 4.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.532042588397363 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T09:00:00", "lead_h": 2.0, "peak_level": 5.3, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.956335200519836 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2025, "n_train": 55081, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-27T18:00:00", "peak_ts": "2025-09-27T22:00:00", "peak_level": 3.93 } ], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.15985415338980086, "mae_above_2p5": 0.277881996645181, "brier_warn": 0.009824391159106445, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-27T18:00:00", "lead_h": 0.0, "peak_level": 3.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.2561560254201525 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 2 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.13102686839694494, "mae_above_2p5": 0.2729944665011028, "brier_warn": 0.010889835530782944, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-27T18:00:00", "lead_h": 46.0, "peak_level": 3.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.232029710676319 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 1 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.13121120517634968, "mae_above_2p5": 0.27796411411759725, "brier_warn": 0.009393099541680463, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-27T18:00:00", "lead_h": 46.0, "peak_level": 3.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.23 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 3 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.11678707793162903, "mae_above_2p5": 0.28528124941530186, "brier_warn": 0.013009605253899563, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-27T18:00:00", "lead_h": 45.0, "peak_level": 3.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 3.23 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 3 } } } ] }, { "station": "P.103", "warn_thr": 5.95, "folds": [ { "year": 2021, "n_train": 20009, "n_test": 4392, "events": [], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.1517830652111977, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.15279228710793116, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.17632375724441426, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.13593873552532, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 1.6481640122270367e-09, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2022, "n_train": 28769, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-08-14T04:00:00", "peak_ts": "2022-08-14T08:00:00", "peak_level": 6.09 }, { "crossing": "2022-10-02T16:00:00", "peak_ts": "2022-10-03T16:00:00", "peak_level": 7.54 } ], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.15960776318568, "mae_above_2p5": 0.5240325509357986, "brier_warn": 0.010134410144044625, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-08-14T04:00:00", "lead_h": 0.0, "peak_level": 6.09, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.01930531142127 }, { "crossing": "2022-10-02T16:00:00", "lead_h": 0.0, "peak_level": 7.54, "peak_pred_24h_before": 6.01 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.15389446229226025, "mae_above_2p5": 0.41887094569113953, "brier_warn": 0.007740077230532647, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-08-14T04:00:00", "lead_h": 6.0, "peak_level": 6.09, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.837975953559253 }, { "crossing": "2022-10-02T16:00:00", "lead_h": 9.0, "peak_level": 7.54, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.168225721504108 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.1498671765711928, "mae_above_2p5": 0.40088103598066704, "brier_warn": 0.00801963186023152, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-08-14T04:00:00", "lead_h": 6.0, "peak_level": 6.09, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.81 }, { "crossing": "2022-10-02T16:00:00", "lead_h": 8.0, "peak_level": 7.54, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.002000385945215 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.13833442255794418, "mae_above_2p5": 0.4529809369770209, "brier_warn": 0.009090606171021184, "events": [ { "crossing": "2022-08-14T04:00:00", "lead_h": 1.0, "peak_level": 6.09, "peak_pred_24h_before": 4.8698313890426705 }, { "crossing": "2022-10-02T16:00:00", "lead_h": 5.0, "peak_level": 7.54, "peak_pred_24h_before": 6.650326949981244 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2023, "n_train": 37524, "n_test": 4392, "events": [], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.1489843074454942, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 1.882373500761472e-08, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.16106550376855028, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0001779564366636896, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 1 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.1688589840007776, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0012753245446952602, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 1 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.1510624979748974, "mae_above_2p5": null, "brier_warn": 0.0005959001115900152, "events": [], "false_alarm_episodes": 1 } } }, { "year": 2024, "n_train": 46308, "n_test": 4058, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T10:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-09-26T00:00:00", "peak_level": 8.27 }, { "crossing": "2024-09-30T03:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-09-30T06:00:00", "peak_level": 5.99 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T06:00:00", "peak_ts": "2024-10-05T07:00:00", "peak_level": 9.93 } ], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.193584781859895, "mae_above_2p5": 0.5381754200484403, "brier_warn": 0.018292133172974026, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T10:00:00", "lead_h": 5.0, "peak_level": 8.27, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.11 }, { "crossing": "2024-09-30T03:00:00", "lead_h": 0.0, "peak_level": 5.99, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.42 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 0.0, "peak_level": 9.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.86 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.17314177863843333, "mae_above_2p5": 0.48294427141283425, "brier_warn": 0.016091510788709233, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T10:00:00", "lead_h": 10.0, "peak_level": 8.27, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.167139790234238 }, { "crossing": "2024-09-30T03:00:00", "lead_h": 10.0, "peak_level": 5.99, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.618725525893519 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 69.0, "peak_level": 9.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.889819144742388 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.18833560689452924, "mae_above_2p5": 0.4948752445774323, "brier_warn": 0.01622076553986666, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T10:00:00", "lead_h": 11.0, "peak_level": 8.27, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.283961881370446 }, { "crossing": "2024-09-30T03:00:00", "lead_h": 10.0, "peak_level": 5.99, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.783590096006894 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 69.0, "peak_level": 9.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.922098265471745 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.1644888402154109, "mae_above_2p5": 0.46461119464587947, "brier_warn": 0.013172046828124688, "events": [ { "crossing": "2024-09-24T10:00:00", "lead_h": 11.0, "peak_level": 8.27, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.348489352370365 }, { "crossing": "2024-09-30T03:00:00", "lead_h": 8.0, "peak_level": 5.99, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.42 }, { "crossing": "2024-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 2.0, "peak_level": 9.93, "peak_pred_24h_before": 7.91343423984052 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 0 } } }, { "year": 2025, "n_train": 54577, "n_test": 4392, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-26T06:00:00", "peak_ts": "2025-09-27T21:00:00", "peak_level": 6.64 }, { "crossing": "2025-10-03T06:00:00", "peak_ts": "2025-10-03T12:00:00", "peak_level": 6.14 } ], "variants": { "baseline_abs": { "mae": 0.2036944006891808, "mae_above_2p5": 0.40787978637525985, "brier_warn": 0.014130122065259989, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-26T06:00:00", "lead_h": 14.0, "peak_level": 6.64, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.73 }, { "crossing": "2025-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 41.0, "peak_level": 6.14, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.703778873833753 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 2 }, "rise": { "mae": 0.21617454799997243, "mae_above_2p5": 0.406245211140301, "brier_warn": 0.012587550711857222, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-26T06:00:00", "lead_h": 14.0, "peak_level": 6.64, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.73 }, { "crossing": "2025-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 47.0, "peak_level": 6.14, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.953951787788988 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 1 }, "rise_weighted": { "mae": 0.21768864574559124, "mae_above_2p5": 0.41071503357135775, "brier_warn": 0.014605838473436519, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-26T06:00:00", "lead_h": 13.0, "peak_level": 6.64, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.73 }, { "crossing": "2025-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 49.0, "peak_level": 6.14, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.606011827978066 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 1 }, "rise_quantile": { "mae": 0.18196250028633115, "mae_above_2p5": 0.3987262421172889, "brier_warn": 0.011560937993250782, "events": [ { "crossing": "2025-09-26T06:00:00", "lead_h": 13.0, "peak_level": 6.64, "peak_pred_24h_before": 5.73 }, { "crossing": "2025-10-03T06:00:00", "lead_h": 42.0, "peak_level": 6.14, "peak_pred_24h_before": 6.00597561680636 } ], "false_alarm_episodes": 1 } } } ] } ]