diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 551c035..4d269f1 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -2,8 +2,9 @@ Live water levels, discharge, rainfall and machine-learning flood forecasts for the Ping River basin around Chiang Mai. Collects hourly gauge data from public sources, -keeps the full history in PostgreSQL, and serves a bilingual dashboard, an open REST -API, and 6/12/24-hour flood-risk forecasts per gauge. +keeps the full history in PostgreSQL, serves a bilingual dashboard and an open REST +API, forecasts the flood risk per gauge 6/12/24 hours ahead, and pushes alerts when +a gauge crosses its warning or danger level. **Live: [water.buildfor.life](https://water.buildfor.life/)** · API reference at [/docs](https://water.buildfor.life/docs) · built by [buildfor.life](https://buildfor.life) @@ -11,9 +12,9 @@ after the [October 2024 flood](https://buildfor.life/blog/chiang-mai-flood-2024/ background in [Teaching a Model to See the Ping River Rise 13 Hours Early](https://buildfor.life/blog/ping-river-monitor/). [![CI](https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor/actions/workflows/ci.yml/badge.svg)](https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor/actions) +[![Rust](https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor/actions/workflows/rust.yml/badge.svg)](https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor/actions) [![Security](https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor/actions/workflows/security.yml/badge.svg)](https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor/actions) [![Docs](https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor/actions/workflows/docs.yml/badge.svg)](https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor/actions) -[![Python 3.11](https://img.shields.io/badge/Python-3.11-blue.svg)](https://python.org) [![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-green.svg)](LICENSE) ## What it does @@ -21,11 +22,12 @@ background in [Teaching a Model to See the Ping River Rise 13 Hours Early](https - **Collects** hourly water level and discharge from 16 Royal Irrigation Department (RID) telemetry gauges, Chiang Dao to the southern basin, since 2018-08; hourly rainfall and water level from 400+ ThaiWater/HII stations; Open-Meteo catchment - rainfall (archive + 48 h forecast); daily Mae Ngat reservoir state. Every source and - its quirks: [docs/DATA_SOURCES.md](docs/DATA_SOURCES.md). + rainfall (archive + 48 h forecast); daily state of the large RID dams, Mae Ngat + above all. Every source and its quirks: [docs/DATA_SOURCES.md](docs/DATA_SOURCES.md). - **Fills gaps.** The raw RID grid had readings for ~56 % of hours; a full-history - re-fetch plus HII cross-fill brought it to ~93 %. `GET /api/stats` reports the - current figure. + re-fetch plus HII cross-fill brought it to ~93 %. RID's report often arrives + hours late in the evening, so late readings are always stored and holes are + re-fetched. `GET /api/stats` reports the current coverage. - **Forecasts.** Per gauge and horizon, a gradient-boosted model predicts the rise within 6/12/24 h and the probability of crossing the station's warning and danger levels. Trained on the monitor's own history plus catchment rain; evaluated @@ -39,42 +41,38 @@ background in [Teaching a Model to See the Ping River Rise 13 Hours Early](https - **Notifies.** Public push alerts over a self-hosted [ntfy](https://ntfy.sh): one message when a gauge crosses its warning or danger level, one all-clear on the way down, an opt-in early-warning topic from the model, nothing in between. - Subscribe from the free app, no account. Matrix room alerts for a team are - also supported. + Subscribe from the free app, no account. A Matrix room can get the same + messages for a team. [docs/NOTIFICATIONS.md](docs/NOTIFICATIONS.md). -## Quick start +## How it runs -Python **3.11** (3.13 breaks the pinned `psycopg2-binary`), PostgreSQL for anything -beyond a quick look, [uv](https://docs.astral.sh/uv/). - -```bash -git clone https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor.git -cd Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor -uv sync --python 3.11 -cp .env.example .env # DB_TYPE, POSTGRES_CONNECTION_STRING, optional MATRIX_* -uv run python run.py --web-api # dashboard + API on http://localhost:8000 +```text + RID gauges · ThaiWater/HII · RID dams · Open-Meteo + │ hourly + ▼ + ┌──────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌───────────────────────────┐ + │ ping-collector (Rust, one process) │ │ monthly retrain (Python) │ + │ collect → forecast → notify │◄───────│ scikit-learn, exports │ + │ website + API on :8000 │ models │ models/flood_*.json.gz │ + └──────┬──────────────┬────────────────┘ └─────────────┬─────────────┘ + │ │ │ + ▼ ▼ │ + ntfy topics, PostgreSQL ◄──────────── history ────────────┘ + Matrix room (gauges, rain, dams, forecasts, alert state) ``` -`DB_TYPE=sqlite` works for the dashboard and API; the forecasting path expects the -PostgreSQL history. - -```bash -uv run python run.py --status # collector status -uv run python run.py --test # one collection cycle -uv run python run.py --fill-gaps 7 # re-fetch the last 7 days from RID -uv run python run.py --collect-hii # one ThaiWater/HII collection cycle -uv run python run.py --alert-check # evaluate thresholds, notify Matrix -uv run python scripts/train_flood_model.py --stations all # retrain (~12 min) -make test # pytest, synthetic data, no network -make format # black + isort (the CI contract) -``` - -RID collection in `--web-api` mode: polled at :05 past each hour -(`RID_POLL_OFFSET_MINUTES`); while RID has not published the current hour yet, -retried every `RID_RETRY_MINUTES` (10). Every poll stores all readings the report -has, and yesterday's report is re-fetched while it still has holes (RID's evening -hours often arrive 1-2 h late). On startup the leader re-fetches holes from the -last `GAP_FILL_DAYS_ON_START` (14) days; for older history run `--fill-gaps all`. +- **The service** is one Rust binary, `ping-collector` ([rust/README.md](rust/README.md)), + run by systemd. It polls RID at :05 past each hour and retries every 10 minutes + while the report is behind, fetches HII, the dams and the rain once an hour, + forecasts after every cycle that brought new readings, sends the notifications, + and serves the dashboard and API, in under 100 MB of memory with every model + loaded. +- **The models** are trained in Python (`src/ml`, scikit-learn + HistGradientBoosting) by a monthly timer and exported for the Rust forecaster, + which reproduces Python's features bit for bit and reloads new models without + a restart. +- Until October 2026 all of this was a Python/FastAPI app; how and why it moved: + [docs/RUST_REWRITE.md](docs/RUST_REWRITE.md). ## API @@ -88,76 +86,112 @@ Asia/Bangkok wall-clock without an offset suffix. | `GET /measurements/history/{code}?hours=N` | Hourly history; or `?start=YYYY-MM-DD&end=YYYY-MM-DD`; `limit` ≤ 100000 | | `GET /forecast` | Current flood-risk forecast, every station × horizon, with thresholds and P.1 inundation-stage probabilities | | `GET /api/forecast/history/{code}?hours=N&horizon=24` | Forecasts as issued, for auditing lead time after the fact | +| `GET /api/forecast/skill?station_code=P.1` | Issued forecasts vs what happened, per deployed model version | | `GET /api/hii/rainfall/latest`, `/api/hii/waterlevel/latest` | Latest ThaiWater/HII gauge readings | | `GET /api/hii/rainfall/catchment?days=N` | HII gauge catchment-mean rain next to the Open-Meteo series the model uses | -| `GET /api/forecast/skill?station_code=P.1` | Issued forecasts vs what happened, per deployed model version | | `GET /api/notifications` | ntfy server and topic names for the subscribe panel | | `GET /api/stats` | Row counts per source, date range, coverage | -| `GET /health` | DB / upstream / memory checks | +| `GET /health` | Database and data freshness (RID, ThaiWater as backup), the RID API, memory | +| `GET /scraping/status` | Collection runs, the last forecast run, service version | -Interactive reference with schemas: [water.buildfor.life/docs](https://water.buildfor.life/docs). -Responses are cached briefly server-side; poll no faster than once a minute — the data -changes hourly. +Interactive reference with schemas: [water.buildfor.life/docs](https://water.buildfor.life/docs) +(also `/redoc`, `/openapi.json`). Responses are cached briefly server-side; poll no +faster than once a minute — the data changes hourly. Station editing +(`POST/PUT/DELETE /stations`), `/config` and `POST /scrape/trigger` need the +server's `ADMIN_API_KEY` in an `X-API-Key` header. + +## Run it locally + +Needs Rust >= 1.88 ([rustup](https://rustup.rs); on Linux also `pkg-config` and +`libssl-dev`) and PostgreSQL. Python 3.11 with [uv](https://docs.astral.sh/uv/) +only for training models. + +```bash +git clone https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor.git +cd Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor +docker run -d --name ping-pg -e POSTGRES_PASSWORD=ping -e POSTGRES_DB=ping -p 55432:5432 postgres:16 +cp .env.example .env +# POSTGRES_CONNECTION_STRING=postgresql://postgres:ping@localhost:55432/ping +# WEB_LISTEN=127.0.0.1:8000 +cargo build --release --manifest-path rust/Cargo.toml +rust/target/release/ping-collector check-db # create the tables +rust/target/release/ping-collector fill-gaps 30 # the last 30 days from RID +rust/target/release/ping-collector run # collect, forecast, serve http://127.0.0.1:8000 +``` + +Notifications stay off until `NTFY_SERVER` or `MATRIX_*` is set. Without trained +models the forecast is the persistence heuristic, marked `source: "heuristic"`. +Training needs years of history (the server's database, or `FLOOD_ML_DB_URL`) and +the Open-Meteo archive: + +```bash +uv sync --python 3.11 +uv run python scripts/train_flood_model.py --stations all # writes models/flood_* +uv run python scripts/evaluate_variants.py --stations P.1 # the rolling-origin harness +``` + +`make help` lists the rest (`make check` runs every CI gate locally). ## Deployment -Production is a systemd unit on a small VPS behind Cloudflare, updated by `git pull`. -`scripts/install.sh` (run as root from a checkout) creates the `water-monitor` user, -deploys to `/opt/thailand-water-monitor`, runs `uv sync` into `.venv`, installs -`water-monitor.service` and the monthly `water-monitor-retrain.timer`. +Production is one systemd unit on a small VPS behind Cloudflare; the app directory +`/opt/thailand-water-monitor` is a git checkout. To update: ```bash +cd /opt/thailand-water-monitor && git pull +cargo build --release --locked --manifest-path rust/Cargo.toml sudo bash scripts/install.sh -sudo systemctl start water-monitor.service -systemctl list-timers water-monitor-retrain.timer ``` -The retrain timer runs `scripts/retrain.sh`, which trains into `models/.staging`, -refuses to promote anything that is not a rain-enabled (`hgb-v3+`) set covering the -expected stations, and renames the bundles into place. Details and the operations -runbook: [docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md](docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md) sections 6–8. +`scripts/install.sh` (idempotent, also for a fresh host) installs the binary and +`ping-collector.service`, syncs the Python environment for the monthly +`water-monitor-retrain.timer`, runs a dry run of every source and a forecast check +against the Python reference, restarts the service and waits for the website. The +retrain trains into `models/.staging`, refuses to promote anything that is not a +rain-enabled (`hgb-v3+`) set covering the expected stations, and renames the +bundles into place; the service picks them up on its next forecast. Details and +the operations runbook: [docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md](docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md) +sections 6–8. Configuration: [.env.example](.env.example). ## Repository layout ``` -src/ collector, API (web_api.py), dashboard (static/dashboard.html) -src/ml/ features, training, evaluation harness, prediction, rain/dam/HII loaders -scripts/ train_flood_model.py, retrain.sh, evaluate_variants.py, install.sh, dev_proxy.py -tests/ pytest suite (synthetic data; no DB or network) -docs/ FLOOD_FORECASTING.md, DATA_SOURCES.md, deployment and station guides -models/ trained bundles + metrics.json (gitignored) and evaluation results (tracked) -.gitea/workflows/ ci (format/lint/tests), security (pip-audit/bandit), docs (link + OpenAPI checks) +rust/collector/ ping-collector: collection, forecast run, ntfy/Matrix, website + API (src/web) +rust/forecast/ forecast inference from the exported models; parity tests against Python +src/static/ the dashboard (single file, EN/TH) and its map data +src/data/ the bundled station list +src/ml/ features, training, evaluation harness, export; predict.py is the reference +src/*.py HII and RID-dam clients/stores for the archive backfills +scripts/ install.sh, retrain.sh, train/evaluate/backfill tools, systemd units +tests/ pytest (synthetic data; database tests need TEST_DATABASE_URL) +docs/ model write-up, data sources, notifications, Matrix, rewrite history +models/ trained bundles (gitignored) and evaluation results ``` ## Documentation - [docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md](docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md) — the model: data, features, evaluation, measured performance, negatives, deployment, retraining - [docs/DATA_SOURCES.md](docs/DATA_SOURCES.md) — every ingested and candidate source, endpoints, quirks -- [docs/STATION_MANAGEMENT_GUIDE.md](docs/STATION_MANAGEMENT_GUIDE.md) — adding/editing gauges -- [docs/DATABASE_DEPLOYMENT_GUIDE.md](docs/DATABASE_DEPLOYMENT_GUIDE.md), [POSTGRESQL_SETUP.md](POSTGRESQL_SETUP.md) — database setup - [docs/NOTIFICATIONS.md](docs/NOTIFICATIONS.md) — public push alerts: topics, semantics, ntfy deployment -- [docs/MATRIX_QUICK_START.md](docs/MATRIX_QUICK_START.md) — Matrix room alerts for a team -- [docs/GAP_FILLING_GUIDE.md](docs/GAP_FILLING_GUIDE.md) — data integrity tooling +- [docs/MATRIX_QUICK_START.md](docs/MATRIX_QUICK_START.md) — the same alerts in a Matrix room +- [rust/README.md](rust/README.md) — the service: commands, configuration, develop, deploy +- [docs/RUST_REWRITE.md](docs/RUST_REWRITE.md) — why and how it moved from Python to Rust - [docs/references/NOTABLE_DOCUMENTS.md](docs/references/NOTABLE_DOCUMENTS.md) — official Thai government resources - Public overview: [buildfor.life/docs/tooling/ping-river-monitor](https://buildfor.life/docs/tooling/ping-river-monitor/) -Other database backends (VictoriaMetrics, InfluxDB, MySQL, SQLite) and the Grafana -dashboards under `grafana/` are supported by the adapters but not what production -runs; see [docs/VICTORIAMETRICS_SETUP.md](docs/VICTORIAMETRICS_SETUP.md) if you want them. - ## Contributing -`make format` before committing (black 88 columns, isort black profile — the CI gate), -`make test` must stay green, tests use synthetic data only. See +`make format` before committing, `make check` must stay green; see [CONTRIBUTING.md](CONTRIBUTING.md). Issues and merge requests on [git.b4l.co.th](https://git.b4l.co.th/B4L/Northern-Thailand-Ping-River-Monitor). ## Data sources and thanks -Royal Irrigation Department (RID) gauge telemetry; Hydro-Informatics Institute (HII) / -ThaiWater open API; Open-Meteo; OpenStreetMap contributors for the river geometry; -Chiang Mai Municipality for the inundation map the P.1 stages are keyed to. All -instruments are theirs; we aggregate, store, fill gaps and forecast. +Royal Irrigation Department (RID) gauge telemetry and reservoir reports; +Hydro-Informatics Institute (HII) / ThaiWater open API; Open-Meteo; OpenStreetMap +contributors for the river geometry; Chiang Mai Municipality for the inundation map +the P.1 stages are keyed to. All instruments are theirs; we aggregate, store, fill +gaps and forecast. ## License